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NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

ArchedThunder

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May 12, 2012
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I wonder if the PS4 can go back above the PS2 launch aligned if they announce a good price drop at GDC or E3.
Also is it still above PS2 worldwide?
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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I wonder if the PS4 can go back above the PS2 launch aligned if they announce a good price drop at GDC or E3.
Also is it still above PS2 worldwide?
It is, & it will stay above I think.

What was unique about the PS2 wasn't explosive sales, but very very long legs, it kept selling millions even after the Wii died in 2010.
 

Bgamer90

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Mar 20, 2007
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I doubt it at this point, they can't be that confident with bones underpowered and cost where they honestly think an inferior product can become no.1
Not sure why you think that. Unless I'm mistaken, the gap between the first place console and second place console at this point of the gen (the third year) is the smallest it has been for any recent gaming generation in North America regardless of the power difference.

If I remember correctly, the Xbox 360, PS2, and PS1 all had leads of at least two million in North America during the third year of their respective gens. Different release dates for the consoles within those gens helped with that no doubt but it was still true.

The gap in North America between the XB1 and PS4 is small in comparison. Because of this, MS will definitely try to do anything they can to be #1 in this territory since sales aren't this close anywhere else + being #1 in North America is good for PR statements and other possible future game deals.
 

michaelius

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Jan 5, 2012
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I wonder how many PS TV units amazon had for that fire sale.

For vita scale it could be a massive boost for february ;)
 

EGM1966

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Aug 5, 2011
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Not sure why you think that. Unless I'm mistaken, the gap between the first place console and second place console at this point of the gen (the third year) is the smallest it has been for any recent gaming generation in North America.

If I remember correctly, the Xbox 360, PS2, and PS1 all had leads of at least two million in North America during the third year of their respective gens. Different release dates for the consoles within those gens helped with that no doubt but it was still true.

The gap in North America between the XB1 and PS4 is small in comparison. Because of this, MS will definitely try to do anything they can to be #1 in this territory since sales aren't this close anywhere else + being #1 in North America is good for PR statements and other possible future game deals.
Seems to me MS aggressively chasing lead in US is a foregone conclusion. The gap isn't that huge and Nov/Dec proved price point/value (and more negatively little else) can push XB1 ahead of PS4.

The have small chance in UK and little chance elsewhere to be market leader and I'd argue a reasonable chance in US. It's going to have to be bought in terms of margin but I don't see that stopping them.

I doubt they'll go crazy with deals outside US though, that would just be wasting money right now.
 

Bgamer90

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Mar 20, 2007
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Seems to me MS aggressively chasing lead in US is a foregone conclusion. The gap isn't that huge and Nov/Dec proved price point/value (and more negatively little else) can push XB1 ahead of PS4.

The have small chance in UK and little chance elsewhere to be market leader and I'd argue a reasonable chance in US. It's going to have to be bought in terms of margin but I don't see that stopping them.
Yep, 100% agree.

I doubt they'll go crazy with desks outside US though, that would just be wasting money right now.
Yeah, the deals will more than likely remain exclusive to North America. Really no point in brining them to other territories when the retail stores are creating the deals themselves in order to clear out stock -- thus showing that people in those territories don't care about the console/brand no matter the price.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Jun 10, 2004
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Agreed. And the world revolves around the US if you're looking at gaming websites etc, so MS can maintain disproportionate mindshare by being strong in one market.
 

Omnistalgic

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Mar 20, 2012
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Agreed. And the world revolves around the US if you're looking at gaming websites etc, so MS can maintain disproportionate mindshare by being strong in one market.
Fine by me...let the "shooter box" live on. I just want a resurrection of strong Japanese IP again and unique titles like Rime front and center. Sony just needs a small footprint in Japan and I think PS4 will be one of the best consoles ever because of territory support and title variety.
 
Jul 7, 2014
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Not sure how anyone can say that it would have been impossible for the Xbox One to get Janaury if it stayed at $350 in a month in which both consoles sold under 200K.

Some people who saw that the system was more than $350 during that period didn't get one and are holding out for next Holiday season even though the system is at $350 right now (either due to them feeling that it would be a better time to get a console due to deals or some simply not knowing the system is back at $350).

PS4 is taking this month (February) and more than likely next month due to its exclusive games; I would say that the people who are buying consoles during this period are more "gamer oriented"; they aren't the same as the people who were simply looking for the best deal due to the exclusive games greatly helping sales this month. I'm positive that the exclusives will help to push the PS4 above 200K for February.
I can say it because even after the price went back down it never regained the lead in January, even hourly. This is only on Amazon, but it has proven to be a reliable indicator so far.
 

michaelius

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Jan 5, 2012
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Yeah, the deals will more than likely remain exclusive to North America. Really no point in brining them to other territories when the retail stores are creating the deals themselves in order to clear out stock -- thus showing that people in those territories don't care about the console/brand no matter the price.
This is also great way of showing that Microsoft doesn't care about those territories,

They already have this image after x360 so spending whole generation making that perception stronger will cost them sales in next gen too.
 
Jul 7, 2014
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Not sure why you think that. Unless I'm mistaken, the gap between the first place console and second place console at this point of the gen (the third year) is the smallest it has been for any recent gaming generation in North America regardless of the power difference.

If I remember correctly, the Xbox 360, PS2, and PS1 all had leads of at least two million in North America during the third year of their respective gens. Different release dates for the consoles within those gens helped with that no doubt but it was still true.

The gap in North America between the XB1 and PS4 is small in comparison. Because of this, MS will definitely try to do anything they can to be #1 in this territory since sales aren't this close anywhere else + being #1 in North America is good for PR statements and other possible future game deals.
So you think companies will make deals because Xbox might have a slight lead in the U.S. while getting slaughtered worldwide? I guess for games that have a disproportionate amount of sales in the U.S. it might makes sense. I assume you're taking about timed or true exclusives and not marginal DLC stuff like the majority of their deals.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
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I can say it because even after the price went back down it never regained the lead in January, even hourly. This is only on Amazon, but it has proven to be a reliable indicator so far.
But again, you don't know what the exact sales (actual number) of the XB1 were in comaparison to the PS4 during the period in which the XB1 was $400 in January.

The XB1 being $400 more than likely helped the PS4 during that period considering the fact that neither consoles had major games released during the month. It seems like you are dismissing the actual impact the price raise had in January -- it still had an impact on the system when it went back to $350 for the reasons I stated in my previous post.
 

Bgamer90

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Mar 20, 2007
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So you think companies will make deals because Xbox might have a slight lead in the U.S. while getting slaughtered worldwide?
Yes, if those games greatly target the genres that the North American audience likes -- whether it's via bundles, exclusive DLC, and/or marketing.

I guess for games that have a disproportionate amount of sales in the U.S. it might makes sense. I assume you're taking about timed or true exclusives and not marginal DLC stuff like the majority of their deals.
I'm talking about everything -- bundles, DLC, system advertisements, timed exclusives, full exclusives (with the latter only happening for game series whose sales are mainly in the US).
 

sense

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Aug 4, 2012
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I wonder how many PS TV units amazon had for that fire sale.

For vita scale it could be a massive boost for february ;)
the question is if it was sold at a loss or is the device very cheap to manufacture. the only difference between it and a chromecast like device would be the ability to play vita games and probably missing a feature or two for the time being. i feel like this would be a good way to get people to play games made for vita without having to buy a handheld and also stream the playstation backlog through now for a very low price. sounds like a good trojan device with something unique to it to make it stand out from the rest of the competition on this frontbut Sony being themselves are just not doing anything huge to promote this thing with potential.....
 
Jul 7, 2014
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Yes, if those games are greatly target the genres that the North American audience is attracted to -- whether it's via bundles, exclusive DLC, and/or marketing.



I'm talking about everything -- bundles, DLC, system advertisements, timed exclusives, full exclusives (with the latter only happening for game series whose sales are mainly in the US).
I can see marketing and DLC because the games still go to all platforms. New IPs are fair game too. I would be very surprised to see another major publisher give a deal for an established, successful IP like Tomb Raider though.
 

JackLongRod

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Aug 14, 2014
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I think Halo 5 is going to make a big splash in NA (with heavy bundling). It's also still a blockbuster IP worldwide but really, MS has lost outside NA/UK.
Hahaha

No it's not and halo/MCC didnt helping the franchise either also the only way halo 5 does well is if it's released in a dry month because if it's released in November both black ops 3 and uncharted are gonna SMASH it.
 

Road

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Jan 21, 2008
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sites.google.com
how does the PS4 vs PS2 LTD fare worldwide, aligning for launch times (i.e. trying to separate out Japan for a more accurate comparison)

edit: wait a minute, PS2 shipments hit 28.68m through FY2002....
Japan after 4 quarters:
PS2: 3.94m
+
Outside Japan after 5 quarters:
PS2: 16.69m

PS2 = 20.63m
PS4 = 19.9m

I think this would be it.

The difference between hardware sold to date is pretty small, and the software is relatively similar ratio (if slightly bent to MS). So it's meaningless any way you look at it. Both are healthy.
Yep, PS4 and Xbox One are pretty much on equal terms in the US. People just have a difficulty understanding that "US is not the world" works both ways. The 360 domination in the US does not imply a worldwide domination, and the PS4 worldwide domination does not imply an US one.

With pictures:



PS4 lead is currently irrelevant, and it'll need to outsell the Xbox One by way more than 26% each month to change that. The hypothetical scenario where the PS4 reaches 40 million outselling the Xbox One from now on by only 26% every month, the Xbox One reaches 32.6 million.

 

TsuWave

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Oct 12, 2013
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Hahaha

No it's not and halo/MCC didnt helping the franchise either also the only way halo 5 does well is if it's released in a dry month because if it's released in November both black ops 3 and uncharted are gonna SMASH it.
halo is a bigger franchise than uncharted. it will do well regardless. current xbox one userbase will likely be all over it.

the question is, will it move enough boxes?
 

lefantome

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Mar 8, 2007
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Some possible explanations:

1) People wait for sales and offers, also the crisis impoverished them
Due to the high prices the old gen console are still being sold at, in the last few years most of the sales came from the holiday season.
Also the crisis has affected a lot the middle class and many people may save money or wait for better deals.

2) Sony and Microsoft targeted the teenager and adult demographic only
They did almost nothing to compete with Wii U in this segment, but the real threats are smartphone and tablets. If children grow up playing games only mobile games there are chances many of them won't buy a gaming console ever.

3) Ps4 and Xbox One are not (yet) media boxes
Ok they have some streaming services but that's it. Ps2 and Ps3 were, respectively, cheap dvd and blu ray players. Xbox 360 had media center integration, music playback, photo library and so on.
After almostt 15 months they are far to be decent media boxes,( in particular Ps4), therefore reducing their value to the eyes of the averaje joe.

4) They didn't target casuals at all
I love that Sony and then Microsoft gave a great attention to hardcore gamers but it's time they do something for the casual too. They will never see the success they had in gen7 with casual but it's important to put a foot in that segment, a path which may lead these consoles to become widely adopted media boxes.
In addition to that, I think that the operating system may be seen as ugly from a casual point of view. Ps4 os surely is, Xbox One used to have the standard metro interface with low customization. We all know how "good" windows phone has been doing in the US.

5) January 2014 is not January 2007 neither January 2008
I know that both had stronger sales but in January 2007 was just after the launch of ps3 while in January 2008 the 7g was in it's third year not the second one.
 

Steroyd

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Dec 27, 2006
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Hahaha

No it's not and halo/MCC didnt helping the franchise either also the only way halo 5 does well is if it's released in a dry month because if it's released in November both black ops 3 and uncharted are gonna SMASH it.
Whoa Whoa Whoa, lets not get crazy here Halo will do better in the US, that's a given, considering what genre does best in the US, I reckon overall worldwide sales might be somewhat equal though.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
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Hahaha

No it's not and halo/MCC didnt helping the franchise either also the only way halo 5 does well is if it's released in a dry month because if it's released in November both black ops 3 and uncharted are gonna SMASH it.
So Halo 5 being the first true Halo game for this gen isn't going to do anything?

All three games you mentioned in your post (Halo, Uncharted, and COD) will do well in North America even if they all release in the same month because they are all major AAA games -- COD on both consoles, Halo on Xbox, and Uncharted on PS4.
 
Jul 7, 2014
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Whoa Whoa Whoa, lets not get crazy here Halo will do better in the US, that's a given, considering what genre does best in the US, I reckon overall worldwide sales might be somewhat equal though.
Halo has more competition though with Black Ops 3 and Star Wars Battlefront. Uncharted 4 basically none with Tomb Raider only on Xbox during the holidays. I think it will be close in the US, but I give slight edge to Halo. Much closer then it would have been last generation. Uncharted 4 has a huge advantage worldwide.
 

Donos

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Dec 7, 2008
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Hahaha

No it's not and halo/MCC didnt helping the franchise either also the only way halo 5 does well is if it's released in a dry month because if it's released in November both black ops 3 and uncharted are gonna SMASH it.
Wow, i'm not a big fan of Halo but don't underestimate it. MS is also going to sell it as it's made by Jesus himself and throw their whole PR muscle behind it.
MCC damaged a bit of the glory but Halo 5 is going to be build from ground up for XB1 and surely is going to get VIP treatment regarding servers etc.
It won't maybe be as big as the Halo 2 / 3 years where everybody got crazy for but don't downplay it to much.
And that's coming from a rather PS guy. It still won't do anything to turn the tide for MS in the long term but still. NA is a huge market.

But Sony didn't even have a pricecut yet...
 

Mass_Pincup

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Feb 25, 2014
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Hahaha

No it's not and halo/MCC didnt helping the franchise either also the only way halo 5 does well is if it's released in a dry month because if it's released in November both black ops 3 and uncharted are gonna SMASH it.
Come on Halo is huge, it will also be the first new Halo game this gen. It will be a big system seller at least in NA.
 

ArchedThunder

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May 12, 2012
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Honestly, in comparison to the other main series entries in the franchise I think that Halo 5 is going to have some pretty disappointing numbers. Because of the market shifting away from Halo and the last two games to come out under 343's name being Halo 4 and MCC I don't see it doing anymore than 5-6million worldwide as its final LTD. Those are still great numbers, just a big step down from the previous main entries. Uncharted 4 on the other hand is coming off of the huge hit that was The Last of Us(From the creators of The Last of Us will probably be a big part of the marketing) and worldwide the PS4 is far a head of the Xbox One. So America only Uncharted 4 and Halo 5 will probably pull similar numbers(I could see Uncharted 4 doing better though, but Halo 5 doing better wouldn't be surprising), but worldwide Uncharted 4 will likely to much better. I don't know the LTD numbers for the Halo and Uncharted games in America, I would love to see those as those might help in figuring out how Uncharted 4 and Halo 5 might do here.
 

Rand6

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Mar 14, 2011
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Wow, i'm not a big fan of Halo but don't underestimate it. MS is also going to sell it as it's made by Jesus himself and throw their whole PR muscle behind it.
I don't know...
The PR team need to market and bundle other games : probably another deal with Call of Duty, the rumored AC London, and Tomb Raider.

But yes, in the US, Halo 5 will sell better than Uncharted 4 (in Europe, Uncharted will easily win)
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Oct 12, 2014
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halo is a bigger franchise than uncharted. it will do well regardless. current xbox one userbase will likely be all over it.

the question is, will it move enough boxes?
It's not about which franchise is bigger, Uncharted has been selling better with each new release, Drake's fortune sold what, 3 million? Among Thieves sold 6 million in 2 years, & Drake's Deception surpassed Among Theives' lifetime sales within 4 months.

One franchise is growing with every subsequent release, while the other is the opposite.

Halo will still sell significantly better in NA though, FPS is NA's favorite genre.
 

Hubble

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Aug 6, 2013
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I think Halo 5 is going to make a big splash in NA (with heavy bundling). It's also still a blockbuster IP worldwide but really, MS has lost outside NA/UK.
Doubt it will make a big impact like Halo 3. 343 have really killed Halo remarkably.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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It's not about which franchise is bigger, Uncharted has been selling better with each new release, Drake's fortune sold what, 3 million? Among Thieves sold 6 million in 2 years, & Drake's Deception surpassed Among Theives' lifetime sales within 4 months.

One franchise is growing with every subsequent release, while the other is the opposite.

Halo will still sell significantly better in NA though, FPS is NA's favorite genre.
You're assuming that Uncharted as a franchise is yet to peak though; it's somewhat rare (but not unprecedented) for the fourth entry in a franchise to be as big as the third, particularly without a complete reboot of the franchise, and the PS4 userbase is going to be a fraction of what the PS3 userbase was when Uncharted was selling those numbers.
 

Nightengale

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You're assuming that Uncharted as a franchise is yet to peak though; it's somewhat rare (but not unprecedented) for the fourth entry in a franchise to be as big as the third, particularly without a complete reboot of the franchise, and the PS4 userbase is going to be a fraction of what the PS3 userbase was when Uncharted was selling those numbers.
If it weren't for TLoU, I would've been more inclined to agree lean more towards the pessimistic side of that assumption. But the unexpected commercial success of TLoU has me more optimistic that U4 can match TLoU's LTD.

And while it's not a very reliable metric, I'm seeing stuff like YT views for Uncharted 4 being way higher than highest averages that U3 had.
 

mike4001_

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Apr 4, 2014
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What I am interested in is the sales could change in a couple of years.

Just based on the fact that the PS4 market gets saturated ("everybody has one") and people start buying the X1 as their second home console.

Also assuming that last generation the lead platform for many people was 50:50 on x360 and PS3 and 2-3 years later they bought the other system.

Now the lead plaform for many is the PS4. Maybe these folks will all buy an X1 in 2-3 years.
 

allan-bh

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May 16, 2006
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Hahaha

No it's not and halo/MCC didnt helping the franchise either also the only way halo 5 does well is if it's released in a dry month because if it's released in November both black ops 3 and uncharted are gonna SMASH it.
Uncharted smash Halo... bad joke.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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If it weren't for TLoU, I would've been more inclined to agree lean more towards the pessimistic side of that assumption. But the unexpected commercial success of TLoU has me more optimistic that U4 can match TLoU's LTD.
It's possible.

There's certainly a lot fewer titles around for PS4 owners to spend money on nowadays.
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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You're assuming that Uncharted as a franchise is yet to peak though; it's somewhat rare (but not unprecedented) for the fourth entry in a franchise to be as big as the third, particularly without a complete reboot of the franchise, and the PS4 userbase is going to be a fraction of what the PS3 userbase was when Uncharted was selling those numbers.
I'm making an assumption based on a trend.

When you see a series of movies, books, games...etc do better with every subsequent release, its pretty safe to assume that the next one will climb. Trends is one of the most important factors analysts look at when they make predictions & estimations.
 

slavesnyder

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Nov 18, 2013
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I'm making an assumption based on a trend.

When you see a series of movies, books, games...etc do better with every subsequent release, its pretty safe to assume that the next one will climb. Trends is one of the most important factors analysts look at when they make predictions & estimations.
Trend extrapolation is a dangerous and tempting tool for lazy analysts. Yesterday there, today here, so tomorrow there doesn't always work. Otherwise XboxOne would be the market leader...
 
Feb 3, 2007
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When you see a series of movies, books, games...etc do better with every subsequent release, its pretty safe to assume that the next one will climb. Trends is one of the most important factors analysts look at when they make predictions & estimations.
Yes, and trends would suggest that the fourth entry in a non-rebooted franchise on a platform with 25% of the userbase of the previous platform will see lower sales.
 

Bgamer90

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Mar 20, 2007
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Doubt it will make a big impact like Halo 3.
More than likely won't.

343 have really killed Halo remarkably.
Has little to do with 343. Compare the current market to how things were back in 2007. Halo 3 released before Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare and the Xbox 360 was doing much better than the PS3 in North America.

No Halo game is ever going to get the same amount of hype as Halo 3 from here on out regardless of 343.
 
Feb 15, 2013
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Yep, PS4 and Xbox One are pretty much on equal terms in the US. People just have a difficulty understanding that "US is not the world" works both ways. The 360 domination in the US does not imply a worldwide domination, and the PS4 worldwide domination does not imply an US one.

With pictures:



PS4 lead is currently irrelevant, and it'll need to outsell the Xbox One by way more than 26% each month to change that. The hypothetical scenario where the PS4 reaches 40 million outselling the Xbox One from now on by only 26% every month, the Xbox One reaches 32.6 million.

I don't think anyone is implying that PS4's worldwide domination also implies a US domination. I'm not sure where you are getting that idea.

And your predictions are not really fair to the PS4, as we are just coming off the back of MS's insane measures over November and December that allowed them to massively cut the userbase gap with their rival. That was obviously not sustainable, and now we are seeing PS4 stretch a lead in the territory again, and that will continue to a greater extent in February/March and possibly the rest of the year if we look at the release schedules, and barring MS slashing the price again. I think the next retail exclusive for the XBO could be not until November.

So extrapolate NPD totals after things have normalized a little in a couple of months and the picture will be different to the one you made, which estimates the Bone selling 33 million in NA. I can't see that happening in any way.
 

SgtCobra

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Mar 11, 2011
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Some people are overestimating the worldwide appeal of Halo as a franchise nowadays while others are underestimating its sales-power in comparison with the Uncharted franchise in the US/UK.

Uncharted 4 is not going to outsell Halo 5, the franchise is still too strong in the US/UK, how can someone think otherwise?
Will Uncharted 4 outsell Halo 5 outside of the US/UK? Yes, most definitely. Don't disappoint yourself and remember the PS4 is squashing the Xbox One in sales outside the US/UK. By the time H5 and UC4 come out the lead the PS4 has will be even bigger. MS will hold its yearly bundle o-rama which will make the gap smaller but that will probably only have a notable positive effect in the US/UK because let's be honest, last year it didn't do shit in Europe/Japan (I don't have any reference material regarding the rest of the world but I wouldn't be surprised if those bundles didn't have a lot of effect in other places too)
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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Trend extrapolation is a dangerous and tempting tool for lazy analysts. Yesterday there, today here, so tomorrow there doesn't always work. Otherwise XboxOne would be the market leader...
You would be half correct, lazy analysts would look at the trends in the US when Xbox 360 was outselling the PS3 & ignore the fact that the PS3 was selling better worldwide. & that X360 started selling in the 3 digits weekly in japan, which is how Xbox One is currently doing, or that X360 stopped selling software in Europe long before current gen consoles launched.

If someone bothered looking at the trends outside of the US, the PS4 & Xbox One gap isn't really surprising.
 

Bgamer90

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Mar 20, 2007
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...That was obviously not sustainable, and now we are seeing PS4 stretch a lead in the territory again, and that will continue to a greater extent in February/March and possibly the rest of the year if we look at the release schedules, and barring MS slashing the price again. I think the next retail exclusive for the XBO could be not until November.
No way. There's too much stuff coming to the system during the second half of this year for that to be the case.
 

Psycho_Mantis

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Jul 28, 2012
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Yes, and trends would suggest that the fourth entry in a non-rebooted franchise on a platform with 25% of the userbase of the previous platform will see lower sales.
Not really. Its been noted how a major percentage of PS4 owners have never played Uncharted which could ideally represent a new segment for UC4 to attract. SCE titles have actually benefited notably from PS4 despite the differences you mention. Infamous Second Son is likely the best selling Infamous game and KZ SF has even more likely exceeded KZ3.
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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Yes, and trends would suggest that the fourth entry in a non-rebooted franchise on a platform with 25% of the userbase of the previous platform will see lower sales.
We're both making assumptions.

My assumption is that UC4 would sell better than UC3 based on the growth the series has shown with every entry.

Your assumption is based on the PS4 userbase as of December 2014, AND ignoring the trend of software selling better on the smaller userbase already.

One of us has to be right, & no offense to you personally, but one assumption is using better data.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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SCE titles have actually benefited notably from PS4 despite the differences you mention. Infamous Second Son is likely the best selling Infamous game and KZ SF has even more likely exceeded KZ3.
It's hard to say without actual figures, but I'd be surprised if Killzone:Sf has outsold KZ2 (the franchise high mark) or if Infamous:SS has outsold Infamous 1 (the franchise highmark).
Both titles hugely benefitted from launch drought 'must buy something to justify my new toy' as well.

EDIT:
ignoring the trend of software selling better on the smaller userbase already.
Which franchise titles selling more on PS4 than on PS3 are you referring to here?
All of the "definitive edition" ports sold less than their respective last-gen cousins entirely because of userbase discrepancy.