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NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

Louis Cyphre

Banned
Jun 5, 2011
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After 5 years on market it will likely be 90 million PS4's sold, 60 million Xbox One's sold and maybe if they are lucky 25 million Wii-U's and that is if the Wii-U lasts for 5 years.
 

Bgamer90

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Mar 20, 2007
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The games releasing outside those two months are irrelevant. They won't do much.
And we know this because?

Last time I checked, we don't even know the exact release dates of many of the games coming out this year. Not sure where the assumption is coming from that they will only release their big games in October and November. Halo 5 for example could release in September for all we know.
 

small44

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May 13, 2014
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Uh... why exactly would you exclude Halo 3 though? I mean, other than to back up the groundless assertion about less than 8m, obviously.
Halo 3 was heavily bundled.
Other then Halo 3 the drop between the last and current halo games it not big,i don't think the drop of Halo 5 will be big
 
Feb 15, 2013
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After 5 years on market it will likely be 90 million PS4's sold, 60 million Xbox One's sold and maybe if they are lucky 25 million Wii-U's and that is if the Wii-U lasts for 5 years.
Way too optimistic forecasts. For Xbone to get 60m in that timeframe, it needs sell around another 35m in the US in under 4 years going by worldwide sales ratios.
 

allan-bh

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May 16, 2006
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Those are unknown websites, Sony already reported 13 million in November.
Unknown ? Maybe for you.

Anyway, the 9 million shipments for the series between october 2011 and april 2012 includes basically Uncharted 3, Uncharted Golden Abyss and Uncharted Double Pack.

Clearly the most of it is for Uncharted 3, but how much? We don't know, Uncharted Vita and Double Pack shipments could be much bigger than you think.
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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Unknown ? Maybe for you.

Anyway, the 9 million shipments for the series between october 2011 and april 2012 includes basically Uncharted 3, Uncharted Golden Abyss and Uncharted Double Pack.

Clearly the most of it is for Uncharted 3, but how much? We don't know, Uncharted Vita and Double Pack shipments could be much bigger than you think.
You're really reaching if you think the double pack or UC2 sold any significant number, the best selling non-UC3 item was most likely Golden Abyss, & I don't think it made up more than the 300k in the 17.3.
 

allan-bh

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You're really reaching if you think the double pack or UC2 sold any significant number, the best selling non-UC3 item was most likely Golden Abyss, & I don't think it made up more than the 300k in the 17.3.
Shipments sometimes are much larger than actual sales for the period. It's common to see people wondering how a game shipped so much, because know sales are low.

I have no doubt that Uncharted 3 had very good sales, but your estimates sounds unrealistic to me.
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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Shipments sometimes are much larger than actual sales for the period. It's common to see people wondering how a game shipped so much, because know sales are low.

I have no doubt that Uncharted 3 had very good sales, but your estimates sounds unrealistic to me.
The 17.3 million were sales, not shipments.

The only reason we're arguing about hard numbers is because you don't "feel" like UC3 did as well as Halo 3 because it didn't sell those units in MURICA.

No offense man, but go back & read our conversation from the start, you were first dismissing numbers provided by Sony, & then attributed a 250% attache rate to UC Vita, then it's UC2 that had a sudden surge of sales when UC3 launched & somehow nearly doubled its lifetime sales, & now it's just shipments.

What you "feel" isn't important here, America =/= World.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor

Sometimes, the simplest explanation is the correct one.
 

Loris146

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Dec 6, 2012
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Shipments sometimes are much larger than actual sales for the period. It's common to see people wondering how a game shipped so much, because know sales are low.

I have no doubt that Uncharted 3 had very good sales, but your estimates sounds unrealistic to me.
Yeah , it's hard to estrapolate a sold through number for Uncharted 3.

Anyway the franchise had a great growth from U1 to U3.

The 17.3 million were sales, not shipments.
This is impossible.
 

allan-bh

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The 17.3 million were sales, not shipments.

The only reason we're arguing about hard numbers is because you don't "feel" like UC3 did as well as Halo 3 because it didn't sell those units in MURICA.

No offense man, but go back & read our conversation from the start, you were first dismissing numbers provided by Sony, & then attributed a 250% attache rate to UC Vita, then it's UC2 that had a sudden surge of sales when UC3 launched & somehow nearly doubled its lifetime sales, & now it's just shipments.

What you "feel" isn't important here, America =/= World.

No, 17.3m is shipments.

And you are wrong, I not dismissed Sony numbers, I was talking about Play Magazine Vita game sales (with is not from Sony) and certainly I not attributed a 250% attach rate to UC Vita.

Be honest in your statements.
 

Alo0oy

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Yeah , it's hard to estrapolate a sold through for Uncharted 3.

Anyway the franchise had a great growth from U1 to U3.



This is impossible.
No, 17.3m is shipments.

And you are wrong, I not dismissed Sony numbers, I was talking about Play Magazine Vita game sales (with is not from Sony) and certainly I not attributed a 250% attach rate to UC Vita.

Be honest in your statements.

Here:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-04-24-uncharted-3-drakes-deception-game-of-the-year-edition-announced

Meanwhile, Sony announced that the Uncharted series has shifted over 17 million copies across all four games. That is, as of 13th April 2012, over 17,320,000 Uncharted games had been sold. To accompany the announcement Sony released a fancy infographic revealing a myriad of Uncharted-related statistics.


Look at the bottom right of the picture, that's "franchise sales", Sony is a publicly traded company.
 

Amir0x

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Oct 27, 2004
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Wii U, smh. Disaster territory indeed. Gotta hand it to Nintendo, at least they're seeing it through with great content.

Next months will be fascinating to watch sales-wise. Definitely think status quo for a while, nothing too surprising. I guess I'll just be curious to see if Order or Bloodborne do decent numbers.
 

allan-bh

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Shipped = Sold-in

Sold = Sold-through

Sony was always clear with the terms "shipped" & "sold".
Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. (SCE) today announced that the global sales of the PlayStation®4 (PS4™) exclusive title, KILLZONE™ SHADOW FALL, exceeded 2.1 million units

*Includes both Blu-ray Disc™ sell-in quantities and download version sales on PlayStation®Store.

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/140130_e.html

Is very common to announce sales as sell-in.
 

Rogue_Ledr

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Jan 25, 2010
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After 5 years on market it will likely be 90 million PS4's sold, 60 million Xbox One's sold and maybe if they are lucky 25 million Wii-U's and that is if the Wii-U lasts for 5 years.

I doubt XB1 will be that high, unless they get their worldwide numbers up.

They sell well in the U.S., but not abroad.
 

Aquamarine

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May 24, 2012
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Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. (SCE) today announced that the global sales of the PlayStation®4 (PS4™) exclusive title, KILLZONE™ SHADOW FALL, exceeded 2.1 million units

*Includes both Blu-ray Disc™ sell-in quantities and download version sales on PlayStation®Store.

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/140130_e.html

Is very common to announce sales as sell-in.
Also, secondary news sources often dilute sell-in / sell-through definitions with the catch-all "sales."

Many people don't understand or care about the difference.
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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But they did specify that the 3.8 million were shipped, some websites just reported them as sold.

Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. (SCE) today announced that the global sales of the PlayStation®4 (PS4™) exclusive title, KILLZONE™ SHADOW FALL, exceeded 2.1 million units

*Includes both Blu-ray Disc™ sell-in quantities and download version sales on PlayStation®Store.

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/140130_e.html

Is very common to announce sales as sell-in.
Which is why they specifically said "sold-in".

Even if we assume that those were shipments, the franchise was "shipping" at an insanely accelerated rate when UC3 launched, it went from 8 million in Oct 11 to 13 million in Dec 11 to 17 million in Apr 12.

& those numbers do not include the GOTY edition or the 2012 bundle.
 

allan-bh

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May 16, 2006
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If we have to believe what Shogun said in the New 3DS official thread, 3DS could actually have a great month incoming, sales-wise. At least for Gamestop. And this is with shortages.
I bet big part is for current owners.
 

1st Course

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Aug 10, 2012
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Unless stated otherwise, global sale figures are almost always shipped numbers. Prior to this generation I actually don't recall a company announcing WW sell-through.
 

allan-bh

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Also, secondary news sources often dilute sell-in / sell-through definitions with the catch-all "sales."

Many people don't understand or care about the difference.
Yeah, is normal this confusion with shipped/sold. Companies could be more clear, but I suppose this doesn't benefit them.

Also, if you have conditions to look at NPD data, can give us an idea of how much Uncharted 3 sold?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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To be clearer, this is what TheShogun said about New 3DS XL sales (remind, at Gamestop) so far

I cant believe

A) How well this is selling. No joke GREAT February for 3DS coming

B) How yet again Nintendo can't provide stock. I simply do not understand how they consistently under ship product
As I said in the other thread, we can't meet demand. Not even close
So can you tell us if this is supply line issues as per usual or crazy demand or a little of both? I'm actually curious what sorts of numbers for console refreshes are usually expected/shipped vs. pre-orders.
Both.
Also, we have an entire thread dedicated to how the console has sold out in many other stores (not just GS), especially in specific areas. It sounds like Nintendo didn't ship such a huge amount of consoles, but also that demand is there, and seemingly a pretty good one.
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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Also, secondary news sources often dilute sell-in / sell-through definitions with the catch-all "sales."

Many people don't understand or care about the difference.
Yeah, half the websites reporting the 3.8 million UC3 launch day figure reported it as "sold", some games journalists don't even know the difference.
 

Bgamer90

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Mar 20, 2007
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After 5 years on market it will likely be 90 million PS4's sold, 60 million Xbox One's sold and maybe if they are lucky 25 million Wii-U's and that is if the Wii-U lasts for 5 years.
PS4 sounds right. XB1 and Wii U seem too high.

I would say...

PS4: 90 Million
Xbox One: 45 Million
Wii U: 15 Million
 

EatMyFace

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Nov 4, 2014
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In Your Basement
After 5 years on market it will likely be 90 million PS4's sold, 60 million Xbox One's sold and maybe if they are lucky 25 million Wii-U's and that is if the Wii-U lasts for 5 years.
Didn't PS3 sell like 80m already? Or are we closer to ~85 by now?
PS4 has significantly outsold the PS3 in the same time frame, I don't see how it will only sell 90m the way its been dominating this gen so far. It will easily blow past 100m.