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[SMOK3Y]

Remember you are basing that off NPD software retail sales only. Digital sales revenue is not tracked by NPD, which I keep trying to point out. Digital sales revenue is absolutely booming year to year, so it makes NPD's software results increasingly anachronistic. Retail software sales are naturally declining yoy.

Anyway, Sony must be making a packet on PS4 digital sales. So your argument is flawed.

ya every game I got on PS4 is digital BF4, TLoU, CoD, MGS:GZ, TR DE, KZ:SF etc etc

 

[Chobel]

I'm glad you asked because this thread was in need of a serious dose of reality of what's really going on behind the scenes. Microsoft is obviously taking a page out of Sony's PS3 playbook with the XB1. This is a clear case of under-promising followed by a massive amount of over-delivering (of value).

Microsoft shows the market a $500 console chained to expensive--yet elegant--hardware (Kinect 2.0), a revolutionary form of misunderstood DRM, and graphical components capable of hitting the holy grail of 1080p x 60 fps in games--basically giving the people what they want. And then they go "bam!", we're going to do you one better, folks. No Kinect necessary, but better with it... $400 bundles and $500 ones too if that's what you prefer... We'll save DRM for later when you're more ready for it... You want Madden, Fifa, Halo, and Tomb Raider, you say? Yeah we got to too! So the market goes, "well f*** me, this thing may have been awesome before, but now how could I possibly resist?" The fruits of this strategy will ripen in the coming months and Mattrick's true genius will finally be appreciated.

Many of you can't see the forest beyond the trees. Microsoft knows the majority of a consoles sales occur *after* the first year, so what happens now isn't really important. You can call this the "beta" period, if you'd like. The real party starts in year two. "Let the kids have their fun, but the real games don't begin until we say so." -Microsoft.

They want gamers to experience what the competition offers so that when they inevitably jump (back) in to the Xbox All in One Entertainment Eco-System, they will truly realize what they have been missing and then they will have won a customer for life. In a final stroke of genius, they want you, the gamer, to make the final 180 by turning your back on Sony's trap-box known as the PS4 and embracing true gaming-salvation that is the XB1. Sony's trying to "lock" consumers in by offering loads of "free" games, massive discounts, and a ton of other benefits that only work if you stay in their ecosystem by paying a monthly tax for the rest of your life. Who's forcing DRM down your throat now? You can't just stop paying and bring those games over to the XB1, for example. What kind of idiots do they take us for?

So Microsoft is gearing up for year two which starts this holiday season. Did you know that 80% of console sales occur in the holiday season? Droppin' nuggets of knowledge all day, holla. Microsoft has had the shelves fully stocked for a couple months now, so you could say they already have the jump on sony. Then they just announced about a dozen different variations. It's not one size fits all anymore, folks. That was the old way, the Sony way. You want a 1 TB version with manly COD graphics that you could show off to the b*tches in your neighborhood? We got that. How about a ice cool white one with a free Sunset game included? Yup. Are you a vanilla man? We got the standard SkU for you. Buddies coming over for a kegger this weekend? Grab the madden buddle yo.

Do you want to control your entire home entertainment system with just your voice and hands? The Kinect version is still available! 'Sup now, son. Those lucky gamers get the added benefit of all the motion-games that are in the pipeline from award winning studios like Rare and they can change weapons... with their voice. XB1 amazon rankings aren't so high right now since all the sales are spread out with all these amazing bundles instead of just one or two sku's like the PS4 or WiiU. NPD might miss some of these sku's as well since there are so many coming out all the time. Remember, those numbers are just estimates anyway and Walmart, the largest retailer in teh world practically, isn't a fan of npd so we're not getting the entire picture. Sony's in their pockets, no doubt.

2015, year of the Xbox!

 

[SDCowboy]

That assumption is flawed in thinking the bundle would not cannibalize existing SKU sales.

Not quite. A white PS4 sale is still a PS4 sale and those aren't counting until September. Beyond that, it's a relatively safe assumption that most people buying a white PS4 would still buy a standard black PS4 if the white one didn't exist. Who would buy a console only because they like the color of it (assuming most aren't existing PS4 customers)? If you want a PS4 you want a PS4.

 

[Squalor]

Is Open Mouth the original alternate account of Top Hat Guy from last night who the mods banned? Haha.

 

[Curufinwe]

ya every game I got on PS4 is digital BF4, TLoU, CoD, MGS:GZ, TR DE, KZ:SF etc etc

I bought AC4 on disc cause it was much cheaper that way in June, but everything else is digital. I will keep buying everything that way unless there's a big price discrepancy. I hate changing discs.

 

[vpance]

Back to more doom, just as predicted.

 

[Matt_]

Do we not even have a range for TLOU:R numbers other than 200k<?
I swear we usually get some fairly large press release from a site to do with npd?

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

I'll be so disappointed if next year they don't put out a special PlayStation 20th anniversary PS1 Gray PlayStation 4 console / Dual shock 4.

 

[panda-zebra]

Too egregious there chap. Your 'thing' ain't going to work if nobody thinks you're serious. You've over-egged that post by about 50%.

No way is he giving up 50% in that post. EDIT far too slow.

You were best parody account.

FTFY

 

[sörine]

But attach rate goes down with more hardware sales. Yeah 360s attach rate was higher but Ps4 hardware sales are much greater meaning Ps4 is selling more software overall. It was the same with the Wii lower attach rate but it was leading in software sales for most of the generation.

I think publishers car about overall software sales more than attach rate. GameCube had a super high attach rate but who cares if that isn't actually a ton of games being sold.

No, attach rate tends to rise with userbase and early Wii was above 360, PS2 above GC, etc. PS4's low attach rate (well below Wii's 5:1 back in March 2007, which grew to 6:1 in March 2008) can probably be blamed more on PSN+ than it's hardware sales.

Anyway, Sony must be making a packet on PS4 digital sales. So your argument is flawed.

The 30 million software figure Sony gave out includes digital games. They might be making bank on digital, but it's not through game sales. If they are it'd be through subscriptions and IAP.

 

[SmokyDave]

I think you're low-balling with that 50%.

There's no way he's giving up 30%.

I set it up, you two knocked it down. Fine work chaps, we must collaborate on another wheeze some time.

No way is he giving up 50% in that post. EDIT far too slow.

Your effort was solid and is much appreciated.

 

[Majmun]

LTD in the US (M units):
PS4 3.78
XB1 3.05

Ps4 with a 20% lead already.

 

[theDeeDubs]

LTD in the US (M units):
PS4 3.78
XB1 3.05

Damn Europe must be putting in work then. I keep thinking the gap is larger here.

 

[Neuromancer]

Then they just announced about a dozen different variations. It's not one size fits all anymore, folks. That was the old way, the Sony way. You want a 1 TB version with manly COD graphics that you could show off to the b*tches in your neighborhood? We got that. How about a ice cool white one with a free Sunset game included? Yup. Are you a vanilla man? We got the standard SkU for you. Buddies coming over for a kegger this weekend? Grab the madden buddle yo.

Shit dog you can still grab a Day One Edition, how's that for value?

 

[ghst]

Man, surprised that the PS4 didn't get over 200K.

that's because you're not paying attention.

consoles (handheld and home) aren't a growth industry, they're just mopping up the remains of those still left over from previous generations.

 

[Squalor]

Too egregious there chap. Your 'thing' ain't going to work if nobody thinks you're serious. You've over-egged that post by about 50%.

I think you're low-balling with that 50%.

There's no way he's giving up 30%.

I set it up, you two knocked it down. Fine work chaps, we must collaborate on another wheeze some time.

 

[SMOK3Y]

I bought AC4 on disc cause it was much cheaper that way in June, but everything else is digital. I will keep buying everything that way unless there's a big price discrepancy. I hate changing discs.

ya im pretty lazy one reason im all digital

 

[EventHorizon]

It might be "normal" but no where enough to support the industry. The best numbers we have on the PS4 is the 3 to 1 attach ratio that includes sub 20 dollar digital games. Which probably brings retail games closer to a 2 to 1 attach ratio or close to half of the 360's 4 to 1 attach ratio at the same point. That is the point most are missing the PS4 has to do numbers to carry the entire industry since the Wii:U and Xbone are under performing.

Yea but doesn't everybody make more money per each digital sale, with the exception of the retailer of course. With digital there is very little to no costs for the following so the attach rate doesn't have to be as high.

• Retailer Margin
• Returns
• Distribution, Cost of Goods

Actually what I'd be more interested in is how total sales per game relate to previous generations rather than attach rate. Right now we have a lot of cross gen gaming with some titles supporting 5 platforms. That will obviously reduce the attach rate for any single console because they are spread out so much.

 

[Neuromancer]

that's because you're not paying attention.

consoles (handheld and home) aren't a growth industry, they're just mopping up the remains of those still left over from previous generations.

Yep video games are just about done, it's not a question of if, it's when. It's a good thing I have a PC so when Nintendo, MS and Sony inevitably go out of business I'll still have something to play on. The sad thing is there will be no more AAA games any more but at least there will be tons of great early access titles and F2P games for me to enjoy.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

ya every game I got on PS4 is digital BF4, TLoU, CoD, MGS:GZ, TR DE, KZ:SF etc etc

Yeah so it's remarkable NPD doesn't track this revenue in any way.

And baffling why some people continue to use NPD software sales as proof of a declining market. One of the only things NPD software figures can demonstrate is declining retail software sales. This is natural, and it is accelerating each year.

I suspect also that if NPD don't start tracking digital sales soon (apparently they will), these NPD threads will be replaced by firms tracking purely digital sales in a couple of years, as digital revenue is predicted to overtake retail in a matter of a few years.

 

[Paganmoon]

Exactly this. People are buying the white one rather than the normal SKU.

How many sales per month do you think is getting cannibalized? I'd wager it's not really in the tens of thousands.

 

[Nirolak]

that's because you're not paying attention.

consoles (handheld and home) aren't a growth industry, they're just mopping up the remains of those still left over from previous generations.

Yeah at this point we're basically looking at a ~1:1 ratio of (360 + PS3) to (XB1 + PS4) sales as compared to last-gen and then everything else being hugely down.

If we total up industry sales it's not flattering. It's not surprising that Western publishers are largely focusing on select, safe bets at retail that only appear on the "stable" platforms and then everything else is going into f2p, digital, and mobile.

It's becoming really hard for the video game industry to try to spin the numbers, the market contraction is so brutal.

NPD July 2007

Wii - 425,000
Nintendo DS - 405,000
PlayStation 2 - 222,000
PlayStation Portable - 214,000
Xbox 360 - 170,000
PlayStation 3 - 159,000
Game Boy Advance - 87,000

Current NPD July 2014 Estimates

 

[Calamari41]

Not quite. A white PS4 sale is still a PS4 sale and those aren't counting until September. Beyond that, it's a relatively safe assumption that most people buying a white PS4 would still buy a standard black PS4 if the white one didn't exist. Who would buy a console only because they like the color of it (assuming most aren't existing PS4 customers)? If you want a PS4 you want a PS4.

If it weren't for the white PS4, I wouldn't be buying one until Bloodborne at the absolute earliest.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

No, attach rate tends to rise with userbase and early Wii was above 360, PS2 above GC, etc. PS4's low attach rate (well below Wii's 5:1 back in March 2007, which grew to 6:1 in March 2008) can probably be blamed more on PSN+ than it's hardware sales.


The 30 million software figure Sony gave out includes digital games. They might be making bank on digital, but it's not through game sales. If they are it'd be through subscriptions and IAP.

Well sorry it would be more accurate to say publishers are making a huge chunk of their software revenue from digital sales.

Sony are making money digitally across the board.

 

[pestul]

Yeah at this point we're basically looking at a ~1:1 ratio of (360 + PS3) to (XB1 + PS4) sales as compared to last-gen and then everything else being hugely down.

If we total up industry sales it's not flattering. It's not surprising that Western publishers are largely focusing on select, safe bets at retail that only appear on the "stable" platforms and then everything else is going into f2p, digital, and mobile.

I'd like to hope that the 1:1 will last.. but I really think it wont. A couple of years from now I'm positive PS4+One will be lower than PS3+360 over the same time frame.

 

[StormKing]

How many sales per month do you think is getting cannibalized? I'd wager it's not really in the tens of thousands.

Well Destiny is the most preordered game in history and the PS4 bundle has been doing well on Amazon. Therefore, it shouldn't be surprising if there is a significant increase in PS4 hardware sales during September to make up for lackluster performances (for a market leader) in July and perhaps August as well.

 

[metalslimer]

NPD July 2007

Wii - 425,000
Nintendo DS - 405,000
PlayStation 2 - 222,000
PlayStation Portable - 214,000
Xbox 360 - 170,000
PlayStation 3 - 159,000
Game Boy Advance - 87,000

The fact that the GBA in the year 2007 where Nintendo hadn't released a 1st party game for the GBA in over a year and a half and was on its way to being discontinued could outsell nearly every Wii U month that it's been on the market is quite the eye opener to where Nintendo is at. Hell we don't even have to be talking about the Wii U, the 3DS is probably not very far off from that nuber as well. People can keep pointing out how the PS4 and One are keeping up with their predecessors, but their predecessor did not do great early last generation. Competition for people's time and money is only going to get more fierce going forward as well, so I worry what is coming for this industry.

 

[Kosma]

Fewer but bigger monster titles, Diablo 3 20 million, GTA5 32 million, Destiny prob gonna do 10+ easy.

Mid tier gone.

Indie devs filling void left.

Future looks good.

 

[StevieP]

I'd like to hope that the 1:1 will last.. but I really think it wont. A couple of years from now I'm positive PS4+One will be lower than PS3+360 over the same time frame.

I don't think anybody's going to reach their previous gen totals.

The fact that the GBA in the year 2007 where Nintendo hadn't released a 1st party game for the GBA in over a year and a half and was on its way to being discontinued could outsell nearly every Wii U month that it's been on the market is quite the eye opener to where Nintendo is at. Hell we don't even have to be talking about the Wii U, the 3DS is probably not very far off from that nuber as well. People can keep pointing out how the PS4 and One are keeping up with their predecessors, but their predecessor did not do great early last generation. Competition for people's time and money is only going to get more fierce going forward as well, so I worry what is coming for this industry.

It also speaks to how poorly the current market leader is doing in comparison, when you look at any of those play station numbers.

 

[sörine]

Well sorry it would be more accurate to say publishers are making a huge chunk of their software revenue from digital sales.

Sony are making money digitally across the board.

Sure, but we have no real indication if it's enough to make up for the decline at retail. The low PS4 attach ratio we've gotten sort of indicates it doesn't, but we don't have enough information on how much f2p and services are bringing in which might offset it.

 

[metalslimer]

I don't think anybody's going to reach their previous gen totals.

I think the PS4 has a small shot, just because I think it will absorb a good chunk of that remaining market. At least in NA I think PS4 will beat the PS3.

It also speaks to how poorly the current market leader is doing in comparison, when you look at any of those play station numbers.

Right; the PS2 that late in the game was outselling every single piece of hardware on the market right now. Hopefully the holidays can give this gen a nice boost.

 

[gtj1092]

No, attach rate tends to rise with userbase and early Wii was above 360, PS2 above GC, etc. PS4's low attach rate (well below Wii's 5:1 back in March 2007, which grew to 6:1 in March 2008) can probably be blamed more on PSN+ than it's hardware sales.


The 30 million software figure Sony gave out includes digital games. They might be making bank on digital, but it's not through game sales. If they are it'd be through subscriptions and IAP.

Yes it rises over time as people have their console for longer but the faster a console sells the slower the attach rate goes up. Either way the point was yes 360 had a higher attach rate but ps4 actually has higher software sales in the same time frame. Plus I'm sure that 4:1 one attach rate for the 360 is just for the US since MS doesn't detail global software sales or any for that matter.

 

[SmokyDave]

NPD need to start tracking digital sales and sales of smartphone / tablet games. The numbers would look much better then and everyone could stop worrying about the sky falling in.

 

[Curufinwe]

I don't think anybody's going to reach their previous gen totals.

The PS4 will. Sony are going to able to drop it to $300 then $200 in the years ahead.

 

[Culex]

Based on the US LTD's, before the holiday sales spikes hit (Nov+Dec), the PS4 may have a one million unit lead at it's current pace by Oct 31st. Ponder that for a while.

 

[prag16]

People can keep pointing out how the PS4 and One are keeping up with their predecessors, but their predecessor did not do great early last generation. Competition for people's time and money is only going to get more fierce going forward as well, so I worry what is coming for this industry.

Yeah, that's been the mantra, but PS4 is about to cross streams with the Wii, and the 360 was supply constrained for far longer than either of the new consoles. PS4bone both look more frontloaded.

Don't get me wrong, I definitely don't think Sony has to be worried quite yet. But I don't think things are quite as rosy as they look at first glance, even for PS4 (it's tracking a little weak now, for a market leader).

I don't think anybody's going to reach their previous gen totals.

I'd probably have to agree with that. Though Sony MAY have a shot, I don't see it as overwhelmingly likely unless we get another long drawn out generation.

 

[Krakn3Dfx]

You can bet your ass that people are going to buy that white PS4 bundle. I'm sure people are holding out on buying a PS4 until Destiny is released.

Have 4 friends on IRC holding out for the white, so yeah, there are clearly people out there that see Destiny as the tipping point for their next gen jump.

September is going to be pretty interesting.

 

[Saty]

Do we have software sales data only for Microsoft and Sony home consoles year-over-year and gen-over-gen?

 

[metalslimer]

NPD need to start tracking digital sales and sales of smartphone / tablet games. The numbers would look much better then and everyone could stop worrying about the sky falling in.

I don't think amazing sales of smartphone games would be very comforting to many users on this board....


But really when people discuss the downturn the industry has had, I assume we are talking about the traditional dedicated market. Digital sales would be nice though.

 

[Paganmoon]

NPD need to start tracking digital sales and sales of smartphone / tablet games. The numbers would look much better then and everyone could stop worrying about the sky falling in.

Isn't the tracking by NPD done, much so of the publishers/platform holders can get real numbers from retailers? They already have their own internal numbers for digital sales.

NPD isn't really for the consumer, so no reason for the platform holders to release that information.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Yeah at this point we're basically looking at a ~1:1 ratio of (360 + PS3) to (XB1 + PS4) sales as compared to last-gen and then everything else being hugely down.

If we total up industry sales it's not flattering. It's not surprising that Western publishers are largely focusing on select, safe bets at retail that only appear on the "stable" platforms and then everything else is going into f2p, digital, and mobile.

So if PS4 + XB1 have a total of 160 million+ surely pubs will be happy even if there is no growth. Thats a pretty large install base to sell games on right.

 

[Calamari41]

Isn't the tracking by NPD done, much so of the publishers/platform holders can get real numbers from retailers? They already have their own internal numbers for digital sales.

NPD isn't really for the consumer, so no reason for the platform holders to release that information.

I believe investors and other market research firms are quite keen on getting the data.

 

[Canis lupus]

I'd like to hope that the 1:1 will last.. but I really think it wont. A couple of years from now I'm positive PS4+One will be lower than PS3+360 over the same time frame.

Why not, unlike Wii, PS360 audience was mostly made up of hardcore and casual gamers, the Wii mostly attracted non-gamers who needed a distraction. I expect few casuals to leave the console realm but combined PS4/Bone install base should still be above 150M. It all depends how competitve MS is though, or whether PS4 can make up for the poor Xbone sales. I don't expect a close race like last gen, PS4 will likely take ~3/4th of the market.

 

[sörine]

Yes it rises over time as people have their console for longer but the faster a console sells the slower the attach rate goes up. Either way the point was yes 360 had a higher attach rate but ps4 actually has higher software sales in the same time frame. Plus I'm sure that 4:1 one attach rate for the 360 is just for the US since MS doesn't detail global software sales or any for that matter.

I'm actually not sure if overall PS4 software sales were higher or not even? You're right though that we're mixing worldwide (PS4, Wii) and US (360) attach rates and we probably shouldn't.

You're wrong on rate of increase for attach rate though. PS2 and Wii both prove that wrong, PS4's record hardware sales are in no way really responsible for it's comparatively low attach rate. It's other factors at play.

 

[Unknown One]

I'm hoping PS4 will extend the gap by more, so MS have less option to pay to exclude. Yes both do it, but MS is more proactive in doing so if you looked at last gen.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

How many sales per month do you think is getting cannibalized? I'd wager it's not really in the tens of thousands.

I know lots of people who jumped on the White bundle. They were waiting for something special: be it price drop, special SKU, something. This was it.

White bundle is selling a lot, which is based on amazon top lists. But I really can't tell how much it sold when announced. Maybe 50k?

 

[ethomaz]

PS3 is ~26M in US, 10M in Japan, and ~80M worldwide.

PS2 sold less in US + JP than RotW.

US (45m?) + JP (20m) = 65m

It sold over 150m,

PS. I guess even PS1 sold less... I don't know where people get these ideias... RotW sells more than US + JP.

 

[SDCowboy]

If it weren't for the white PS4, I wouldn't be buying one until Bloodborne at the absolute earliest.

Right, but you'd still be buying one. That's the point.

 

[Paganmoon]

I believe investors and other market research firms are quite keen on getting the data.

But don't investors get the digital data from the platform holders anyway? Or do you mean potential investors?

I know lots of people who jumped on the White bundle. They were waiting for something special: be it price drop, special SKU, something. This was it.

White bundle is selling a lot, which is based on amazon top lists. But I really can't tell how much it sold when announced. Maybe 50k?

so about 25k a month? Sounds really high, but I really have no clue so

 

[prag16]

So if PS4 + XB1 have a total of 160 million+ surely pubs will be happy even if there is no growth. Thats a pretty large install base to sell games on right.

Most likely, but anything significantly past 100 million doesn't sound like an absolute lock at this point. With all the games coming late 2014 and early 2015, we'll have a better idea where things are tracking after that point I guess.

I expect few casuals to leave the console realm but combined PS4/Bone install base should still be above 150M.

That seems a little aggressive; would require nearly 100 million from the PS4. Or a ton of broken console replacements counting towards sales like last gen.