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Oh man this thread sure did slow down to a...

NPD July sales:


PS4 - 187K

XBO - 131K

YAY! Now, going n with no knowledge about how well Madden sells...

So if PS4 and Xbox One are that close, even when PS4 had TLoU:R, could the Madden Bundle actually push the One super close to the PS4?

 

[Guymelef]

Is the PS4 the first console where sales are US + JP < Rest of World so far?

PS3 is ~26M in US, 10M in Japan, and ~80M worldwide.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

i agree. i think 35m should be what the system reaches if it has a fairly standard 5-6 year lifespan.

Come on Ani you know that PS4 going to be market for next ten years even with PS5 out .
Unlike PS3 i can see a $150 PS4 6 years later maybe even less if they get rid of the blu ray drive .

 

[AniHawk]

Come on Ani you know that PS4 going to be market for next ten years even with PS5 out .
Unlike PS3 i can see a $150 PS4 6 years later maybe even less if they get rid of the blu ray drive .

i wonder about the need for a ps5.

 

[Guymelef]

Oh man this thread sure did slow down to a...






YAY! Now, going n with no knowledge about how well Madden sells...

So if PS4 and Xbox One are that close, even when PS4 had TLoU:R, could the Madden Bundle actually push the One super close to the PS4?

I don't know, at this point Madden bundle is out of August Amazon top 100.

 

[driver116]

PS4 seems to do really well in the ROTW.
I wonder if the % of US sales goes down even more after christmas?

Sony are playing a dangerous game, trickle feeding titles.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

i wonder about the need for a ps5.

I see PS5 being the last gen for hardware from Sony by the end of it's system life it should be 10 to 12 years from now .
After that everything will be games as a service or streaming in some way .

 

[Duxxy3]

So if PS4 and Xbox One are that close, even when PS4 had TLoU:R, could the Madden Bundle actually push the One super close to the PS4?

It's possible that XB1 sales would increase with the Madden bundle, and the PS4 sales decrease in anticipation of the Destiny bundle. Where they meet and overlap... well we'll find out in a month.

It's possible they flip months, with XB1 taking a weak august, and PS4 taking september on the back of destiny.

 

[TheRealTalker]

Xbox family < PS4
WiiU + XB1 < PS4 + PS3

 

[mrklaw]

i wonder about the need for a ps5.

if VR takes off they'll need one. I think they can bring back BC by sticking with the current architecture, and possibly even overlap generations like you get now with iphones (maybe more wishful thinking though)

 

[KingSnake]

Quite below average numbers all around, both hardware and software.

Edit: PS Now is PS5. (if it's going to be a success)

 

[Duxxy3]

OK, why are his eyes so damn red?

 

[EventHorizon]

Current NPD July 2014 Estimates

Based on

I agree. Here's what I get for numbers from that.

PS4 - 135 degrees = 187K (basis)
WIU - 58.1 degrees = 80.5K (matches)
XB1 - 94.6 degrees = 131K (matches)
PS3 - 23.4 degrees = 32.4K
WII - 10 degrees = 13.9K
360 - 38.9 degrees = 53.9K

Or

1. PS4 - 187K
2. XB1 - 131K
3. 3DS (probably)
4. Wii U - 80.5K
5. 360 - 53.9K
6. PS3 - 32.4K
7. PSV - 16K

 

[SMOK3Y]

I'm sure some publisher will try to cash in this remasters, but they may learn that it only works if the game it's actually really, really good (or includes massive improvements/extra content). Otherwise, i don't think they would get much success imo.

what I want is MGS1 remake/master do it Kojima

 

[darkwing]

so is the 15M number for the PS4 still realistic for the end of the year?

 

[driver116]

Current NPD July 2014 Estimates

Based on

Interesting. So Xbone was the one which dropped further.

so is the 15M number for the PS4 still realistic for the end of the year?

The months leading upto Chistmas will be much higher. + Black Friday.

 

[Paganmoon]

OK, why are his eyes so damn red?

Been up all night playing games of course!

 

[gundamkyoukai]

so is the 15M number for the PS4 still realistic for the end of the year?

It should reach it rather easy unless something goes crazy wrong this holiday or Sony not build enough systems.

 

[Duxxy3]

so is the 15M number for the PS4 still realistic for the end of the year?

15m seems like a lock. It will probably be considerably more than that.

 

[TheRealTalker]

drop off since June

August will likely see a smaller drop off or similar result before a up peak for September for the PS4

 

[Bundy]

OK, why are his eyes so damn red?

He saw THE LAST GUARDIAN

so is the 15M number for the PS4 still realistic for the end of the year?

15mio. worldwide?
Easily!
November/December sales are crazy, as every year.
Easily over 15mio.!

 

[Canis lupus]

so is the 15M number for the PS4 still realistic for the end of the year?

If you look up past trends, ofcourse... Even PS3 in its first full holiday quarter sold 5M. PS4 has more time to sell, is cheaper, gets Destiny PS4 bundle+standalone white console. It'll be close to 20M.

 

[xValentine]

so is the 15M number for the PS4 still realistic for the end of the year?

Only 5m in the most busiest months of the year would be abit mediocre for a leading platform.

 

[jryi]

Explain this then:

July 2007 NPD:

Year before the market crash. Times are much tougher now.

 

[theDeeDubs]

Naughty Dog games are never quite the system sellers I always expect them to be. I figured PS4 would be over 200k this month because of TLoU.

 

[Foshy]

Naughty Dog games are never quite the system sellers I always expect them to be. I figured PS4 would be over 200k this month because of TLoU.

It's a remaster which had a tracking period of 5 days released during mid-summer.

I expected slightly over 200k too, but not really because of TLoU:R.

 

[bombshell]

Naughty Dog games are never quite the system sellers I always expect them to be. I figured PS4 would be over 200k this month because of TLoU.

It came out the 29th in the US, not giving it many days of tracking.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Naughty Dog games are never quite the system sellers I always expect them to be. I figured PS4 would be over 200k this month because of TLoU.

I don't think this would be a system seller it is a year old port but it's something for people to play since some never had a ps3.
UC4 will be there system seller

 

[theDeeDubs]

Isn't 5 days a big chunk of a game's sales though? I wasn't expecting crazy numbers, I just assumed it would put the PS4 over 200k at least. Just a hold over from last generation for me. I always expected better NPDs when the Uncharted games came out as well.

 

[Foshy]

Isn't 5 days a big chunk of a game's sales though? I wasn't expecting crazy numbers, I just assumed it would put the PS4 over 200k at least. Just a hold over from last generation for me. I always expected better NPDs when the Uncharted came out as well.

Usually, yes. But if you consider the release period, I don't think many "casual" gamers would go out and buy a PS4 + a remaster of a 1 year old game in mid-summer on the week it releases. No rush in this period when many are on holidays, people might as well hold off a few weeks or even until fall.

Similar thing has happened in the UK, the drop-off from week 1 to 2 was remarkably small (-55% when usually for big budget AAA stuff it's more like -80%).

Of course, I might be completely wrong. Just trying to rationalize it.

I'm interested in how much the game itself sold, anyway. cream/aquamarine please? :>

 

[Magic Mushroom]

September will be interesting. Wonder by how much Destiny will boost hardware sales.

 

[Daemul]

Isn't 5 days a big chunk of a game's sales though?

Yes they are. In the UK for example, games usually release on Friday, so the Monday charts only account for 2 days of sales, but the following week always sees a major fall in sales, even with the extra 5 days to sell.

Game sales are extremely front loaded.

 

[driver116]

Yes they are. In the UK for example, games usually release on Friday, so the Monday charts only account for 2 days of sales, but the following week always sees a major fall in sales, even with the extra 5 days to sell.

Game sales are extremely front loaded.

Remasters aren't system sellers. The doesn't bode well for Xbone + MCC.

 

[theDeeDubs]

Remasters aren't system sellers. The doesn't bode well for Xbone + MCC.

I'm curious to see how it does to be honest. While I'd take TLoU (my game of the last generation) over Halo (not a fan) any day of the week, Halo does have nostalgia going for it. After being quite wrong with how much TLoU would drive sales, I'm not even going to guess how effective MCC will be. Anecdotal, but I do know it's surprising to me how much of my friends list is playing various Halo games at the moment and none of them have moved to current gen yet.

 

[Omotesando]

i agree. i think 35m should be what the system reaches if it has a fairly standard 5-6 year lifespan.



that's why my only caveat is if it's on store shelves long enough. if something comes in during the next couple of years and swipes the rug out from under the market, it may be hard to hit that goal.

5-6 years isn't standard anymore isn't it? More like 6-7 years.

PS2 had a 6 years lifespan before PS3 came out and a whopping 13 years before being discontinued in production. So you can argue what a lifepsan really is when a last gen console continues to outsell the current gen console.

PS3 had a 7 years lifespan before PS4 came out and who knows when it is going to be discontinued.

Even the shortlived Wii had a 6 years lifespan, but it got discontinued almost right after the Wii U came out though.

 

[Foshy]

Remasters aren't system sellers. The doesn't bode well for Xbone + MCC.

Halo:MCC is a full-fledged collection of 4 games spanning 2 console generations though. The only comparable thing I could think of is if Nintendo made a 3D Mario HD Collection with 64, Sunshine, Galaxy 1&2 or a 3D Zelda collection.

That's much more of a system seller than a single remaster (though I think GTA V will do amazing too).

 

[Nightengale]

Isn't 5 days a big chunk of a game's sales though? I wasn't expecting crazy numbers, I just assumed it would put the PS4 over 200k at least. Just a hold over from last generation for me. I always expected better NPDs when the Uncharted games came out as well.

For big franchise new game launches, yeah.

But TLoU, for all its acclaim, is ultimately, a remaster port of a game released last year, with minimal marketing fanfare. I believe it will sell well over the months, but it was never going to be a chart-topping craziness in the same vein as a new game.

I feel like it's going to have a strong staying power well into the holidays, but it won't light the world on fire.

 

[Dire]

PS4 sales are okay this month not as strong as previous months were. Still, for now it is staying well ahead of 360 which is good. If it keeps up with 360 in US for the rest of its life (a massive if ) then that would be a tremendous success for Sony.

Last gen had 3 major players. This gen the other two systems are on life support so the PS4 should ostensibly be absorbing some of those lost sales. Incidentally just keeping pace with the 360 (which I would agree is far from a given) would signal an absolutely enormous contraction in the overall console market unless the XBone/WiiU suddenly start selling extremely well.

 

[EventHorizon]

Naughty Dog games are never quite the system sellers I always expect them to be. I figured PS4 would be over 200k this month because of TLoU.

I agree that no matter how good you think the game is, TLoU is not a system seller. For many people it is a great game at $50, but not so great at $450. In addition it is a remaster. My feeling is that though some high profile remasters will sell great, for the same reason I just mentioned they aren't system sellers either.

To be honest I don't think the PS4 has had many system sellers. The console is selling so well based on the console itself and the collective promise of all the games that can be played on it, instead of any single one. The hype of E3 was able to support that promise for June. A single remastered game could not do it for July. It looks like Destiny will be a true system seller and will kick of stretch of much anticipated games for the fall.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

watch_dogs did all right for itself at retail. it does seem like ubisoft shipped enough that they would never have to worry about ever requesting a reorder from sony though. people will very likely buy a destiny bundle, but i don't know if destiny on ps4 is the game that makes the ps4 the hot item that every kid wants to own.

the ps4 will probably do pretty well in the us. it may even clear 30m units if sony keeps it on shelves long enough. that would be at least better than the ps3.

I think you misunderstand the situation. Mario Kart has just launched not too long ago. That is a must have game for many, yet, the WiiU numbers were average last month, and abysmal this month. The majority of Playstation and Xbox gamers don´t buy the consoles for one game, but for the collective gaming library. For instance casuals who buy PS4 for COD, most likely don´t show any interest in buying Bloodborne. Most people who buy AC, don´t buy LBP. What i am saying is that for PS and Xbox platforms, there is not one game that make people flock towards the console. It´s the collective library that make people flock to the PS4 and the Xbone.

 

[IAmRandom31]

Last gen had 3 major players. This gen the other two systems are on life support so the PS4 should ostensibly be absorbing some of those lost sales. Incidentally just keeping pace with the 360 (which I would agree is far from a given) would signal an absolutely enormous contraction in the overall console market unless the XBone/WiiU suddenly start selling extremely well.

PS4 is pacing ahead of the PS2.

This holiday is going to be ridiculous for the system and September could be a massive month WW for the PS4 with the Destiny release and the Destiny bundle which has been gathering pre-orders for months now.

Sept. could easily be a 500K month for PS4, 700-800K WW. Wouldn't be shocked if the holidays had 3m sales or more. 15m sales by years end could easily occur.

 

[Dire]

I don't think this would be a system seller it is a year old port but it's something for people to play since some never had a ps3.
UC4 will be there system seller

I really think all this talk about system sellers is just plain silly. Look at the data from last gen and you'll find almost no games are actually system sellers. In general I think the entire concept can be all but completely ignored. While some games will certainly result in more consoles being sold for that month it's typically a modest gain and ultimately a tiny blip in the overall data. It's the reason when making my predictions I basically ignore software and simply focus on seasonal trends which tend to be incredibly reliable and predictive. From there doing little more than adjusting based on things like Amazon and overall "hype" (eg - Nintendo post E3) results in quite accurate predictions.

Ultimately people buy a console when the perceived value is greater than the actual cost. That's rarely going to be a single game, although a single game can certainly act as the straw that broke the camel's back.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I really think all this talk about system sellers is just plain silly. Look at the data from last gen and you'll find almost no games are actually system sellers. In general I think the entire concept can be all but completely ignored. While some games will certainly result in more consoles being sold for that month it's typically a modest gain and ultimately a tiny blip in the overall data. It's the reason when making my predictions I basically ignore software and simply focus on seasonal trends which tend to be incredibly reliable and predictive. From there doing little more than adjusting based on things like Amazon and overall "hype" (eg - Nintendo post E3) results in quite accurate predictions.

Ultimately people buy a console when the perceived value is greater than the actual cost. That's rarely going to be a single game, although a single game can certainly act as the straw that broke the camel's back.

Your reading to much into this all a system seller is for most people is a game that finally make them buy the system .
I would think everyone knows that most people don't by a system for one game.
I buy my PS4 just because i want one some people wait until a certain game comes out before they buy one that is all a system seller is .
It harder to see this effect since NPD is monthly but rather easy to see it on the Japanese side with it's weekly data.

 

[phanphare]

so no LTD software numbers?

 

[Daemul]

so no LTD software numbers?

creamsugar has been caught ;_;

 

[Infernostew]

I just woke up. Did we get TLoUR numbers?

 

[kswiston]

Wii U might still be pushing poor numbers, but 80k in month 3 of Mario Kart 8 is way better than the 30-40k they were averaging outside of holidays last year. An attractive bundle (perhaps with Super Mario 3D World), Mario Kart 8, and Smash could make for a decent holiday for the Wii U.

This generation was always destined for a contraction since the Wii U will finished with less than 20% of the Wii's LTD, but it looks like the PS4/XB1 are managing to sell as well or better than their predecessors in most months. As such, I doubt things will be that different regarding the types of games that most people care about on this forum.

PS4 must be kicking ass in EU if that 10M number is sell-through to customers. Japan sure as hell isn't contributing much.

 

[mcrommert]

Eh seems to be reasonable numbers for neither console having any real games (remakes excluded, but as Aquamarine has said those seem to be front loaded and I doubt they are selling consoles)

So when sales contract it seems the numbers on the xb1 and ps4 get much closer so that is an interesting phenomenon.

 

[Chobel]

NPD July sales:


PS4 - 187K

XBO - 131K

Low sales for both consoles, I expected PS4 to be +200K.

Eh seems to be reasonable numbers for neither console having any real games (remakes excluded, but as Aquamarine has said those seem to be front loaded and I doubt they are selling consoles)

So when sales contract it seems the numbers on the xb1 and ps4 get much closer so that is an interesting phenomenon.

Math... how does it work?

 

[phanphare]

creamsugar has been caught ;_;

wait, really?