NPD Sales Results for September 2013 [Up2: Console positioning, 360 estimate]

Jan 2, 2007
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I don't know if you were around for the N64 but N64 owners were so game-starved that an absurdly high percentAge of the library were platinum hits. Check the top 10 software for that generation and asides from Gran Turiano it's all N64 games. Seriously, even Acclaim, THQ, and Midway were pumping out platinum-franchises that were pretty WTF. Hmmm makes you think what Ubisoft thinks about Rayman.
This was true of the 360 as well in 2006, and the GCN in 2002. Game-starved owners of hardcore consoles will generally rally around at least a handful a titles per year, boosting them into the charts. There isn't a single Wii U title that has debuted over 200k (The launch numbers for Eternal Darkness in June 2002) in 2013. It's October.

That Wii U owners have not rallied behind any particular titles suggests a few things:

- weak online community so there is minimal WoM selling any title past launch
- owned primarily as a secondary system, so owners are content with games on other consoles/PC to fill in the gaps
- Wii U owners only bought it to play Nintendo games, and will rally behind Mario and Mario alone this fall.

RE: Exclusive Marketing
Exclusive marketing doesn't matter nearly as much as you think. In general, in countries where PS3 sells more, the PS3 version of multiplats sells best. In countries where the 360 sells more, 360 multiplats sell best. The few exceptions are games like FF, Splinter Cell, Pro Evo, or Skyrim which have a lot of invested history on one side. To the vast majority of consumers, the consoles (and experiences) are pretty much interchangeable products, and consumers in 2013 simply buy what most of their friends bought in 2010.

No people who own a Wii U are not like other gamers.

They have some memory of a Nintendo that made the best games, but also attracted the best third party games. Castlevania, Final Fantasy, and Mega Man and so on. But read the statement I am quoting in a super evil voice. Pretty fucking creepy right? As in, you would not leave a loved one alone with said person....
Are you drunk?
 
Jun 27, 2012
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Sony don't do NPD PR, good or bad. See it as beneath them.

The next sales PR we will get is 80m shipped, which should be around now.

I think we will get a Beyond > 1m, TLOU > 5m shipped and PS3 > 80m shipped in the same PR. Lots of milestones and they will talk about the PS4 as well, maybe mention >2m PS4 pre-orders in the same release.
Even with shipped numbers, that would still be much better than I anticipated. Please be right :/
 
May 3, 2007
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It is astonishing to me that Nintendo didn't do whatever it would take to get GTA V onto Wii U. What a wasted opportunity.
they made a system more than capable of running it, they probably assumed it would be made for it, short of funding the port themselves (which would have been a dangerous precident to set) what else could they have done
 
May 19, 2005
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Sony don't do NPD PR, good or bad. See it as beneath them.

The next sales PR we will get is 80m shipped, which should be around now.

I think we will get a Beyond > 1m, TLOU > 5m shipped and PS3 > 80m shipped in the same PR. Lots of milestones and they will talk about the PS4 as well, maybe mention >2m PS4 pre-orders in the same release.
Sony consistently put out PR until they started losing. Then it became "playstation family" until that started doing poorly. Their lack of press releases is clearly not because of some belief that bragging is "beneath them"
 
Apr 20, 2013
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they made a system more than capable of running it, they probably assumed it would be made for it, short of funding the port themselves (which would have been a dangerous precident to set) what else could they have done
they definitely didnt 'asssume' it would be. and zelnick has publicly declared his non-support/wait-and-see-skepticism for nintendo platforms more than once. it was never going to happen

I suspect he means "funding the port themselves"
zelnick pretty much is against this also because it might hurt his products branding. and a platform holder paying for a third party multiplatform port is dumb anyway.
 
May 3, 2007
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they definitely didnt 'asssume' it would be. and zelnick has publicly declared his non-support/wait-and-see-skepticism for nintendo platforms more than once. it was never going to happen
when they were developing the system they likely assumed the big 3rd party games would all come, more recently maybe,

they could perhaps have offered an exclusive marketing deal though it wouldn't surprise me if sony had that signed up years ago
 

jcm

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Dec 8, 2008
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they made a system more than capable of running it, they probably assumed it would be made for it, short of funding the port themselves (which would have been a dangerous precident to set) what else could they have done
Of course they should have funded it themselves. Hell, they should have sent Miyamoto and a team of 100 to New York for a year to do the work if that's what it took. If they assumed it would be made then they're stupid. (They're not stupid).
 
Sep 1, 2013
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they made a system more than capable of running it, they probably assumed it would be made for it, short of funding the port themselves (which would have been a dangerous precident to set) what else could they have done
Nintendo definitely should start funding ports themselves for key titles and maybe even handling development themselves too in some cases. Sega did that in the SMS and early Genesis era to great success.

I know there's a gigantic difference between porting something like Strider or Bubble Bobble versus porting GTAV or MGSV but this is the situation Nintendo finds themselves in today. They essentially need to buy support like Sega in the late 1980s, Sony in the mid 1990s or Microsoft in the early 2000s. It's almost like starting over for them.
 
Jul 12, 2012
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zelnick pretty much is against this also because it might hurt his products branding. and a platform holder paying for a third party multiplatform port is dumb anyway.
What? The GTA brand would have been weakened if there was a Wii U version? That can't possibly be what you're saying with a straight face. You also can't possibly be contending that it would have hurt sales... right?

Of course they should have funded it themselves. Hell, they should have sent Miyamoto and a team of 100 to New York for a year to do the work if that's what it took. If they assumed it would be made then they're stupid. (They're not stupid).
sörine;86527534 said:
Nintendo definitely should start funding ports themselves for key titles and maybe even handling development themselves too in some cases. Sega did that in the SMS and early Genesis era to great success.

I know there's a gigantic difference between porting something like Strider or Bubble Bobble versus porting GTAV or MGSV but this is the situation Nintendo finds themselves in today. They essentially need to buy support like Sega in the late 1980s, Sony in the mid 1990s or Microsoft in the early 2000s. It's almost like starting over for them.
I don't know, I tend to see some validity in the viewpoint stating that this sets a dangerous precedent. Why would ANY 3rd party foot the bill if they see Nintendo tossing money hats around? It could have the side effect of driving non-moneyhatted big publisher 3rd party support down to Just Dance, Skylanders, and that's it.

Though that appears to be the direction things may be heading anyhow...

I don't think Nintendo necessarily needs to be funding ports. Well, I mean at this point they probably do because the situation is at such an emergency level, but long term I think it would be a much better use of resources to outright commission games from third parties instead.

...

Anyway, if they commission the right games and they sell well, they won't need to beg or bribe for a port of Assassin's Creed V because Ubisoft will see that there is at least enough of a market on Wii U to make a profit on porting it over.
Yeah, this type of approach makes more sense.
 
Jan 6, 2012
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I don't think Nintendo necessarily needs to be funding ports. Well, I mean at this point they probably do because the situation is at such an emergency level, but long term I think it would be a much better use of resources to outright commission games from third parties instead. Like what they've done with Platinum, except... well, they should commission games that will sell. For all the shit they would have gotten on this forum if W101 had ended up as a Nintendo mascot filled game, you can bet your ass that Nintendo 101 or whatever would have sold a few more than 19K units.

Anyway, if they commission the right games and they sell well, they won't need to beg or bribe for a port of Assassin's Creed V because Ubisoft will see that there is at least enough of a market on Wii U to make a profit on porting it over.

And I still say that they should have commissioned Michel Ancel to make a Yoshi sidescroller instead of Rayman Legends. Would have crushed Legends' sales.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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That's a pretty big increase from Aug. What caused it, since I don't think any big game came out in Sept for the 3DS? Just people buying it beforehand to get ready for Pokemon?
I think you're confused about what I was referring to?

Thanks.

I would guess that 3DS would be 400k+ next month. 2DS and Pokemon will probably have a nice effect on the 3DS hardware sales.
I think both will have hardware impact, particularly the 2DS at the low price-point.

I tried to look into the effect of past Pokemon games.

Diamond/Pearl
Released in late in April 2007, 16% increase in weekly average hardware sales April/May.

Black/White
Released early in March 2011, 20% decrease in weekly average hardware sales? NDS was about to become a legacy system though.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Jun 22, 2004
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So Nintendo shipped 1.58mm Wii U systems to North America, and if we believe the 95K figure, then their total U.S. sales are around 1.35mm. The usual 1.1x multiplier to get all of North America would put them at 1.49mm sold out of 1.58mm shipped.

It will be very interesting to see what next week's presentation from Nintendo looks like. I hope they give us lots of things to pixel count, at the very least!
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
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I don't know, I tend to see some validity in the viewpoint stating that this sets a dangerous precedent. Why would ANY 3rd party foot the bill if they see Nintendo tossing money hats around? It could have the side effect of driving non-moneyhatted big publisher 3rd party support down to Just Dance, Skylanders, and that's it.
It's GTA. GTA is different. MS didn't set a bad precedent when they fronted $50M for timed exclusive DLC. GTA is a pop culture event. Plus, this is the last multiplat that they could have had the best version. From now on, they are competing with PS4 and XBone. This was an opportunity to grow the install base, get people talking about the platform (in a positive manner, for once), and generate some excitement and news stories.

Instead they've got a Zelda retread and a price cut that can't push them over 100K sales. That's a missed opportunity.
 
Aug 25, 2013
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I think you're confused about what I was referring to?

I think both will have hardware impact, particularly the 2DS at the low price-point.

I tried to look into the effect of past Pokemon games.

Diamond/Pearl
Released in late in April 2007, 16% increase in weekly average hardware sales April/May.

Black/White
Released early in March 2011, 20% decrease in weekly average hardware sales? NDS was about to become a legacy system though.
only 16% for D/P?
huh
what are we expecting the 3DS to do in October anyway
 
Nov 13, 2011
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NB I think Diamond/Pearl was only released for about a week within that April tracking.
So Nintendo shipped 1.58mm Wii U systems to North America, and if we believe the 95K figure, then their total U.S. sales are around 1.35mm. The usual 1.1x multiplier to get all of North America would put them at 1.49mm sold out of 1.58mm shipped.

It will be very interesting to see what next week's presentation from Nintendo looks like. I hope they give us lots of things to pixel count, at the very least!
I hope they don't stop posting the charts because of the Wii U's situation. It's basically the only source of European info.

Sell-through for July-Sept for Japan+US has been about 65K more than Apr-Jun, but I'm still expecting abysmal shipment numbers similar to last quarter, with sell-through exceeding shipments again, because as you note there's still essentially a month's worth (or multiple month's worth, if this bump is more transient) of Wii U hardware in the channel from past shipments.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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NB I think Diamond/Pearl was only released for about a week within that April tracking.

I hope they don't stop posting the charts because of the Wii U's situation. It's basically the only source of European info.

Sell-through for July-Sept for Japan+US has been about 65K more than Apr-Jun, but I'm still expecting abysmal shipment numbers similar to last quarter, with sell-through exceeding shipments again, because as you note there's still essentially a month's worth (or multiple month's worth, if this bump is more transient) of Wii U hardware in the channel from past shipments.
Despite sales, shipments should still be bigger than last quarter due to the Zelda bundle bumping FYQ2 and the Basic recall softening FYQ1. They will probably still be abyssmal but they won't be comparably low.
 
Dec 7, 2011
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sörine;86527534 said:
Nintendo definitely should start funding ports themselves for key titles and maybe even handling development themselves too in some cases. Sega did that in the SMS and early Genesis era to great success.

I know there's a gigantic difference between porting something like Strider or Bubble Bobble versus porting GTAV or MGSV but this is the situation Nintendo finds themselves in today. They essentially need to buy support like Sega in the late 1980s, Sony in the mid 1990s or Microsoft in the early 2000s. It's almost like starting over for them.
What's the point of funding ports of 3rd party games when:

1. You don't design and position your product around the market that these games cater to, hence, your product isn't going to attract the demographics who actually buy these games anyway.

2. You choose to play the card of the "secondary console" in hope that people will consider your product as a companion-system next to their main console (aka the place where they actually spend the vast majority of their money on) that already has 3rd party games in the first place.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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What's the point of funding ports of 3rd party games when:

1. You don't design and position your product around the market that these games cater to, hence, your product isn't going to attract the demographics who actually buy these games anyway.

2. You choose to play the card of the "secondary console" in hope that people will consider your product as a companion-system next to their main console (aka the place where they actually spend the vast majority of their money on) that already has 3rd party games in the first place.
I would say neither of those really apply to Nintendo's approach with Wii U. From the outset the system was positioned as a more direct competitor than Wii was, from it's early 3rd party support being stuff like Mass Effect or Ninja Gaiden to it's move backward to traditional controls to the first Zelda graphical demo even. That Wii U hasn't had success with the core gamer demographic or been recast as a secondary console by them doesn't really speak to Nintendo's intent. Wii U is very much a "red ocean" attempt on Nintendo's part, they're just failing at it. It's the same with 3DS but they're having a much different outcome there.
 
Jun 12, 2012
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These are the angles I've measured, but not sure what to use as a base?

360 = 169K maybe. EDIT: 360 at 169K puts Wii U too low.
Or Wii U 93K?

Wii =28.61
360 = 120.811
PS3 = 146.31
Wii U = 64.269

Edit: 95K it is.

Using Wii U 95 K gives:
Code:
Wii	42K
360	179K
PS3	216K
Wii U	95K
To closest thousand.
So...back to the numbers.
Is 95K accurate enough for the U because that's what other numbers are being based on. (And aquas 360 calculation).

Is this what we're going with?

And for handhelds we know the vita is above 40k so if we could get the 3ds we'd be set.
 
Aug 2, 2008
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Holy shit 270k plus. Thats a higher debut than DDD lol. You see SE you should of just left KH on consoles anyway but instead you placed them on handhelds for god knows why got even worse sales in US and Japan as a result. So glad KH3 is back where it belongs.
Yeah, makes me wonder what BBS would have sold if it were on the ps3 instead of psp. Probably would have sold on par with KH2. Massive fail by SE.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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Even in November with next gen launch?Sony will sellout, depends on how much they ship.
they're looking to sell a lot. i think they may break 1m in november, but the 3ds will probably outdo that with the momentum it's been building since animal crossing. december will be the bigger month for the two of them.

3ds hasn't crossed the 2m mark for december yet. 1.6m in 2011 and 1.25m in 2012. 2012 was the start of the traditional industry's current decline though. i mean we're celebrating what would be disappointing-to-okay numbers from a couple years ago in a month where one piece of software broke all sorts of numbers.

the good news about september is that everything is up by a substantial amount over august. the bad (well, not-good) news is that it took bundles, a price drop, new hardware releases, and one of the best performances for a single game this industry's ever seen to do it.
 
Jun 6, 2004
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www.last.fm
3ds hasn't crossed the 2m mark for december yet. 1.6m in 2011 and 1.25m in 2012. 2012 was the start of the traditional industry's current decline though. i mean we're celebrating what would be disappointing-to-okay numbers from a couple years ago in a month where one piece of software broke all sorts of numbers.
It's going to be very interesting to see how well the 2DS does. I think it would have been difficult to cross 2m even this year due to the increased SKU price with the XL being the primary system now. Whatever it does won't be enough though -- the 3DS has been the best system on the market, easily, in 2013 and that streak continues next week with Phoenix Wright.
 
Sep 23, 2004
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So...back to the numbers.
Is 95K accurate enough for the U because that's what other numbers are being based on. (And aquas 360 calculation).

Is this what we're going with?

And for handhelds we know the vita is above 40k so if we could get the 3ds we'd be set.
I dont feel as if its accurate enough. We need at least ONE of the consoles in order to know the other consoles sales.
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
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I'm not sure how much value these have now, since I really can't vouch for their accuracy, but here's some comps for fun. Last year's numbers are jvm estimates. This year's are the best I can estimate from this thread. The 2006/2007 numbers are good, though. It's amazing to me how much the 3DS continues to look like the PSP.

Code:
Year Over Year               
          2013     2012     % Change
360        179      270     -33.70%
PS3        216      200       8.00%
WIU         95    
WII         42       80     -47.50%
3DS        235      240      -2.08%
NDS                 130     
PSV         41       55     -25.45%
PSP                   5     
               
Family               
MSFT       179      270     -33.70%
SONY       257      260      -1.15%
NINT       372      450     -17.33%
               
HAND       276      430     -35.81%
CONSOLE    532      550      -3.27%
               
Gen over Gen               
Console   2013     2006     % Change
360                 259     
PS2                 306     
XBX                   6     
GCN                  42     
TOTAL      532      613     -13.21%
               
Handheld  2013     2007     % Change
NDS                 496     
PSP                 285     
GBA               
Total      276      781     -64.66%
Corrections happily accepted.
 
Mar 20, 2006
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I'm surprised by the 3DS, its numbers are not amazing, but good enough given the circumstances (i.e. post iOS and android). 3DS will not reach the DS' numbers, but it will probably get closed, or even pass, the PSP's number.

Fuck, Nintendo's Touch series fell off faster than anything else I can remember.
That is because of the iOS, and to a lesser extent android, factor. There are plenty of casual touch games like that on the app store and google play. I have to say, with gamepad likely becoming more ubiquitous in to those devices, I wouldn't be surprised if more genres become affected by the time the 3DS' successor is released.

Also, the WiiU's numbers are not good IMO. We'll see how it does this holiday season.

Vita's numbers are laughable.
 
Nov 30, 2011
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I'm not sure how much value these have now, since I really can't vouch for their accuracy, but here's some comps for fun. Last year's numbers are jvm estimates. This year's are the best I can estimate from this thread. The 2006/2007 numbers are good, though. It's amazing to me how much the 3DS continues to look like the PSP.

Code:
Year Over Year               
          2013     2012    % Change
360        179      270     -33.70%
PS3        216      200       8.00%
WIU         95    
WII                  80     
3DS        235      240      -2.08%
NDS                 130      
PSV         35       55     -36.36%
PSP                   5     
               
Family               
MSFT       179      270     -33.70%
SONY       251      260      -3.46%
NINT       330      450     -26.67%
               
HAND       270      430     -37.21%
CONSOLE    490      550     -10.91%
               
Gen over Gen               
Console   2013     2006    % Change
360                 259     
PS2                 306     
XBX                   6     
GCN                  42     
TOTAL      490      613     -20.07%
               
Handheld  2013     2007    % Change
NDS                 496     
PSP                 285     
GBA               
Total      270      781     -65.43%
Corrections happily accepted.
How in the world is Vita selling worse with Killzone out? Does it really need CoD to stay afloat in the US?