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October 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 11th

3

3rdamention

Member
[360] 55k
[3DS] 124K
[PS3] 40K
[PS4] 285k
[WIU] 71k
[XB1] 190k


Looking ahead, I think Xbox One will win November, it just has to. I expect it, and wouldn't be surprised at all when it does. However, I dont think its going to "double" the sales of the PS4, or make up a "majority of the difference" in North America in the month of November as I have seen posted on GAF (and bookmarked for giggles).


I think Next Month, the Xbox One wins November, but the difference will be somewhere just under 100k units. Just my prediction.
 
prag16

prag16

Banned
3rdamention said:
I think Next Month, the Xbox One wins November, but the difference will be somewhere just under 100k units. Just my prediction.
Click to expand...

As of now I think I'm probably going to predict PS4 higher than xbone for November. Most of the MCC early adopters bought their xbones already. That plus the defacto price cut will make it much closer than it's been, but I just don't think it'll be enough. We'll see.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Jimmyfenix said:
Anybody got predictions for software for October NPD?

My predictions so far.

1. Destiny
2.Smash
3.Sunset
4.NBA 2K15
5.Madden
6.Evil Within
7.Borderlands The Pre-Sequel
8.Alien Isolation
9.Fifa 15
10.Minecraft
Click to expand...

You really expect Sunset Overdrive to outsell all NBA2k15 SKUs combined? And since it's Top 10 without bundled sales? Not that I think it would make a difference

Looking at Amazon Charts, NBA2K15 seems to have opened stronger than 2K14's opening in 2013 which was less than 400,000 but was with 3 SKUs [PS4/XB1 weren't available until November obviously] versus this years 5 SKUs.

If anything I expect 2K15 to perform better its first month than 2K14 and I doubt SO is opening to 400k+
 
S

spatenfloot

Member
I think Xbox may win in November, but only by 100-200k. Both will be significantly higher though. The last week of sales will be the determining factor.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
SwiftDeath said:
You really expect Sunset Overdrive to outsell all NBA2k15 SKUs combined? And since it's Top 10 without bundled sales? Not that I think it would make a difference

Looking at Amazon Charts, NBA2K15 seems to have opened stronger than 2K14's opening in 2013 which was less than 400,000 but was with 3 SKUs [PS4/XB1 weren't available until November obviously] versus this years 5 SKUs.

If anything I expect 2K15 to perform better its first month than 2K14 and I doubt SO is opening to 400k+
Click to expand...
2K14 had an opening near 600K, but it released in September tracking last year; I think decline in last gen platforms will be more than offset by the new platforms.

I doubt either Sunset Overdrive or Smash's second month end up that high; people tend to forget the top ten is all-formats.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
shinra-bansho said:
2K14 had an opening near 600K, but it released in September tracking last year; I think decline in last gen platforms will be more than offset by the new platforms.

I doubt either Sunset Overdrive or Smash's second month end up that high; people tend to forget the top ten is all-formats.
Click to expand...

Ah my mistake then. I looked up its sales in October NPD of last year without realizing it released within September's tracking period.

With that correction, NBA2k14 sold something along 950k - 1M across September and October NPD of last year which largely corresponded to its October sales with perhaps an extra week if that so this years opening so close to the start of the tracking period will likely be 900k or more, something SO and Smash is almost certainly not able to achieve [smash in large part due to being its second month]
 
Z

Zero-Crescent

Member
[360] 55k
[3DS] 207k
[PS3] 39k
[PS4] 480k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 230k

My spreadsheet is down, due to it being on my currently-inactive computer, so these are pretty much off-hand guesses.
 
1

1st Course

Member
Jimmyfenix said:
Anybody got predictions for software for October NPD?

My predictions so far.

1. Destiny
2.Smash
3.Sunset
4.NBA 2K15
5.Madden
6.Evil Within
7.Borderlands The Pre-Sequel
8.Alien Isolation
9.Fifa 15
10.Minecraft
Click to expand...

You're underestimating NBA.

Also I feel like Borderlands will do much better than what people expecting. There are not much hype on the Internet but Internet forum hype =/= sales (multiplats in general don't see hype like exclusives in the Internet, Tales threads gets more attention here than billion dollar franchises like Skylanders/FIFA for example)

On Steam it had a 67K PCU which is really good, games that hit numbers like that tend to sell 1m+ on PC alone (Borderlands has 120K PCU and sold 3m+ on Steam)

2k also said on Q2 call they are very happy about Borderlands The Pre-Sequel sales and it continues to be one of their most popular franchise

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=921892
 
B

BlackBuzzard

Banned
3rdamention said:
[360] 55k
[3DS] 124K
[PS3] 40K
[PS4] 285k
[WIU] 71k
[XB1] 190k


Looking ahead, I think Xbox One will win November, it just has to. I expect it, and wouldn't be surprised at all when it does. However, I dont think its going to "double" the sales of the PS4, or make up a "majority of the difference" in North America in the month of November as I have seen posted on GAF (and bookmarked for giggles).


I think Next Month, the Xbox One wins November, but the difference will be somewhere just under 100k units. Just my prediction.
Click to expand...

I don't know PS4 is already climbing the Amazon charts again and the only Xbox bundle that is sticking around is the AC one. If Sony has the supply and the demand around Black Friday they can take November.
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
Im calling it now.

Bayonetta 2 outsold Sunset overdrive, not including bundles.

Obviously over november it will do much better but I feel the game had a slow start.
 
Coulomb_Barrier

Coulomb_Barrier

Member
BlackBuzzard said:
I don't know PS4 is already climbing the Amazon charts again and the only Xbox bundle that is sticking around is the AC one. If Sony has the supply and the demand around Black Friday they can take November.
Click to expand...

True. November is very interesting. Those Xbone bundles are dropping out the top of the charts and PS4 climbing. Once GTA/Far Cry release, PS4 will really be on top again. Just depends how well the Xbone bundles did at the start of the month.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
BlackBuzzard said:
I don't know PS4 is already climbing the Amazon charts again and the only Xbox bundle that is sticking around is the AC one. If Sony has the supply and the demand around Black Friday they can take November.
Click to expand...

Coulomb_Barrier said:
True. November is very interesting. Those Xbone bundles are dropping out the top of the charts and PS4 climbing. Once GTA/Far Cry release, PS4 will really be on top again. Just depends how well the Xbone bundles did at the start of the month.
Click to expand...

Some Xbox bundles have dropped due to price + some of them selling out. Sunset Overdrive bundle is pretty much no where to be found now so that took a huge drop. COD bundle and AC Unity bundle with Kinect are the most expensive bundles. The former dropped a decent amount after the game's launch (expected) but It will probably climb back up a bit during Black Friday. AC Unity bundle with Kinect was never going to be that high due to price alone; believe it has always been around same spot since its launch. The regular Xbox One SKU doesn't come with a free game and it's $400 on Amazon for some reason (sold out?) -- hence why many are getting the Xbox One AC Unity bundle. That's still above the regular PS4 SKU. The COD bundle is still above the PS4 Destiny bundle.

Don't get why only the start of the month matters since the sales of the PS4 and the Xbox One will increase during Black Friday. The PS4 GTAV bundle is going to do well but I don't see how it will greatly impact Xbox One SKUs that come with new entries in popular series. GTAV continued on selling well on last gen consoles many months after it released and I don't see how a new console bundle with it will get the attention of the majority of people who are moving to this current generation in comparison to a current gen console bundle with a new game entry in a popular series that's the same price overall or cheaper.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Bgamer90 said:
(...)GTAV continued on selling well on last gen consoles many months after it released and I don't see how a new console bundle with it will get the attention of the majority of people who are moving to this current generation in comparison to a current gen console bundle with a new game entry in a popular series that's the same price overall or cheaper.
Click to expand...
people are strange. i remember pachter (and therefore some other experts) saying it was a huge mistake to release GTA 5 so late in the lifecycle of the last generation. guess it was on the bonus round or so. it turned out not to be such a bad idea. so, maybe GTA will surprise us once more.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
slavesnyder said:
people are strange. i remember pachter (and therefore some other experts) saying it was a huge mistake to release GTA 5 so late in the lifecycle of the last generation. guess it was on the bonus round or so. it turned out not to be such a bad idea. so, maybe GTA will surprise us once more.
Click to expand...

Really? That is strange. Don't see how it was a mistake. It's not like GTA is a new IP. It's a huge series. The game was going to have a ton of hype due to that plus the gap (# of years) between it and its predecessor. All of that on top of releasing it at a time in which a ton of people had the last gen consoles pretty much set GTA V up to do very well in sales.

But that ties in to my other point -- it's going to do well on these current gen consoles but I don't see how the game will greatly push people into buying a current gen console since it did so well in sales on last gen and it released just a year ago.
 
K

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
Bgamer90 said:
Really? That is strange. Don't see how it was a mistake. It's not like GTA is a new IP. It's a huge series. The game was going to have a ton of hype due to that plus the gap (# of years) between it and its predecessor. All of that on top of releasing it at a time in which a ton of people had the last gen consoles pretty much set GTA V up to do very well in sales.

But that ties in to my other point -- it's going to do well on these current gen consoles but I don't see how the game will greatly push people into buying a current gen console since it did so well in sales on last gen and it released just a year ago.
Click to expand...

You underestimate the pull of GTA.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Really? That is strange. Don't see how it was a mistake. It's not like GTA is a new IP. It's a huge series. The game was going to have a ton of hype due to that plus the gap (# of years) between it and its predecessor. All of that on top of releasing it at a time in which a ton of people had the last gen consoles pretty much set GTA V up to do very well in sales.

But that ties in to my other point -- it's going to do well on these current gen consoles but I don't see how the game will greatly push people into buying a current gen console since it did so well in sales on last gen and it released just a year ago.
Click to expand...

Problem is that this is all very clear and obvious in retrospective. before, it was not clear what a beast GTA V would be and how good and fresh this game would be. we knew next to nothing. there was more hype about next gen, about the incoming supergames and all.
gta was seen as a great game of a strong franchise who disappointed with gta 4 and was maybe even set to decline, but surely to be standing in the shadows, smelling a little fishy when titanfall and co. were taking all the buzz.

now, we have nearly the same situation with people underestimating the game. but with all we saw and heard so far, the stuff added and pimped, and, not to forget the marketing hell a gta can set lose the game can sell extremely well once again.
and it can sell consoles. and if only for people to see and feel the difference what this gen really means.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Kagari said:
You underestimate the pull of GTA.
Click to expand...

I just don't see it helping a ton of people come over to this gen when the last gen version of the game sold so well just a year ago.

I would feel differently if last gen GTA V came out 2+ years ago. Don't get me wrong, the current gen version is going to do VERY well. I however don't see it causing a great push for the majority of people making the jump to this gaming gen this month vs. new entries in other very popular series that are coming in bundles for the same price or cheaper.

____________________

slavesnyder said:
Problem is that this is all very clear and obvious in retrospective. before, it was not clear what a beast GTA V would be and how good and fresh this game would be. we knew next to nothing. there was more hype about next gen, about the incoming supergames and all.
Click to expand...

I'm not saying it due to it actually happening. I thought it would do very well months before the game launched and help make some people stay on last gen consoles months after the PS4/XB1 released.

now, we have nearly the same situation with people underestimating the game. but with all we saw and heard so far, the stuff added and pimped, and, not to forget the marketing hell a gta can set lose the game can sell extremely well once again.
and it can sell consoles. and if only for people to see and feel the difference what this gen really means.
Click to expand...

Like I said before, it's going to do very well but I don't see it overwhelmingly pushing people to this gen in comparison to bundles with new entries to other AAA series for the same price or cheaper; I can see GTA V being a game that a good number of people making the jump to this gen will get but it will be alongside the main game(s) that actually help push them to this gen.

Overall, I'm only saying that I don't see it causing a large group of people to want to make the jump to this gen; not that GTA V isn't going to do well on current gen consoles (since I definitely feel that it's going to do well).
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
First prediction ever, but I decided it was time to stop being afraid and to get a dog ;)

[360] 50k
[3DS] 120k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 400k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 250k

Rationale: It's a 4 week NPD, and for the PS4 the Destiny bundle has faded a bit, but it still has some legs, and October is getting closer to the Holidays so naturally sales should start to pace up a bit I think. For the XB1, I was looking at 200k-ish, but the $50 price drop and the SO bundle must have had some effect, but tempered by stock problems and only 6 days.

I see both 360 and PS3 starting to take a big dive.
Complete guesswork on DS and WiiU.

November will rely a lot on Black Friday and the promos right before and after it, but for now, wow... If the Amazon rankings hold true, we're looking at a 2:1 to a 2.5:1 advantage to the XB1. Crazy. Wonder what SCEA is doing with those FC4, LBP3 and GTA V bundles that can be pre-ordered in EU? BF only here?
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Overall, I'm only saying that I don't see it causing a large group of people to want to make the jump to this gen; not that GTA V isn't going to do well on current gen consoles (since I definitely feel that it's going to do well).
Click to expand...

That's fine with me. me do not have the same opinion but we are aware that we are no fortune tellers either. think we can agree that it's going to be interesting.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Jimmyfenix said:
Yup I guess it will just be company pr this month :(
Click to expand...

come on, sailor! maybe we are lucky and get some pie from somewhere.
if xbox wins we will get numbers to the last digit anyway.
and i am sure aquamarine will be watching and when she sees all neogaf stumbling and whining in the darkness of information blackout she will hopefully end her sabbatical a little sooner. for the months that are really interesting.
(if you are reading this - don't feel hurried nevertheless. no sweat.)
 
T

Ty4on

Member
[360] 65k
[3DS] 150k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 270k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 180k

I have way too much stuff to do so I just threw these together.
 
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