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[sonycowboy]

I'm just dying to see what people think is going to happen. We'll likely get some PR's in the first week of the year from HW manufacturers regarding HW shipments, so let's get you're thoughts out on the table.

IMO, this is going to be a MONSTER HW month. DS' are sold out everywhere and Nintendo made ALOT. Gameboy's are sold out (except the Micro) at many places. Obviously PS3's and Wii's are hard to come by (for most folks). The 360 is selling very well based on most reports and the PS2, well, it's the PS2.

If, somehow, Nintendo could have managed to ship over 1M Wii's, they'd have 3 system all sell over 1M.

IMO, the DS, PS2, & GBA are guaranteed > 1M sales, the 360 is likely over 1M, and PSP & Wii are possible, but unlikely.

Stories about shipments about Wii and PS3 are legendary at this point and it will be interesting to see what is fact vs what is fiction. I still expect the Wii to outsell the PS3 significantly, but I'm not sure by what percentage. Before the month started, I would have thought 2-1, but now I just don't know.

For the record

1) December is a 5 week month and goes from Sunday, November 26th (Sunday of the biggest shopping weekend of the year) until this Saturday, December 30th.

2) There were 29 shopping days before Christmas in this month, with 4 1/2 weekends. This is a pretty big deal as no weekend days were eaten up by Christmas and pretty much gave maximum consumer shopping potential.

3) As a blanket statement, December NPD HW sales are ~2* November's historically

4) HW Sales last month (courtesy of NPD)
DS 918K
PS2 664K
GBA 641K
360 511K
Wii 476K
PSP 412k
PS3 197K

5) BTW, no you're not imagining things. There was a thread similar to this a week ago that got locked (not sure why)

6) ALSO: Refrain from posting any non-publically disclosed NPD numbers (like the full HW sales listings that used to be on the board) as that's just going to get you banned.

For you NPD junkies, put some ~extra effort into your HW estimates by way of giving your reasoning if possible. I'm interested to see why you think what you do, because I think we're going to see some nice disparity in predictions this month.

 

[Juice]

I'm still not used to your name being red.

 

[Lapsed]

DS 2134K
PS2 1357K
GBA 1112K
360 752K
Wii 694K
PSP 631k
PS3 412K

Reasoning:

DS - Perfect kid's gift. Reasonable to go bullish on DS predictions this month.
PS2 - Priced right for a casual gift. Should perform very well.
GBA - This is wildcard. Perfect kid's gift for Christmas. DS sales might be eating into it.
360 - 360 tracks similiar to original Xbox. I see no reason for this to suddenly change.
Wii - Undershipping. Will will sell 2 to 1 to PS3. But I'm still conservative on its numbers.
PSP - The least 'in-demand' 7th generation system. I'll go conservative on it.
PS3 - Undershipped.

 

[Rocksteady33]

#1) Nintendo DS - 1,850,000
#2) Xbox 360 - 1,400,000
#3) PlayStation 2 - 1,150,000
#4) PlayStation Portable - 950,000
#5) Game Boy Advance - 850,000
#6) Wii - 750,000
#7) PlayStation 3 - 550,000
#8) Xbox - 100,000
#9) GameCube - 100,000

 

[bud]

DS 1.8mln
PS2 1.2mln
GBA 900k
360 950k
Wii 6500k
PSP 700k
PS3 500K

 

[SpiffyG]

DS 1.75mil
GBA 1.4mil
PS2 1.3mil
360 1mil
Wii 840k
PSP 790k
PS3 480k

 

[kenta]

DS - 1.5m
GBA - 1.2m
Wii - 550k
360 - 700k
PS3 - 650k
PS2 - 800k
PSP - 500k

Edit: Reasoning? I dunno, it feels like more PS3s were shipped than Wiis. Typically people would say their store got 3-5 Wiis whereas other people were reporting shipments of 150+ PS3s. Everything is just guesswork, I've never done this before

 

[Tornado Condor]

DS - 1,500,000

 

[davepoobond]

DS 1.5M
PS2 1.7M
GBA 1.2M
360 980K
Wii 750K
PSP 600k
PS3 650K
Xbox - 140k
GameCube - 150k

 

[NomarTyme]

DS: 1,650,000
PS2: 1,150,000
GBA: 1,100,000
Xbox360: 850,000
PSP: 700,000
Wii: 650,000
PS3: 400,000
GC: 70,000
Xbox: 30,000

 

[duderon]

DS 2.23Million
PS2 1.69 Million
GBA 1.27 Million
X360 948k
Wii 842k
PSP 727k
PS3 643k
GC 112k
XBX 79k

Revising these number straight outta my ass.

 

[Barry Lightning]

i think xbox is going to kill it. only system i saw consistently in every store

 

[VultureDude]

DS 1.85mil
GBA 1.2mil
PS2 1.3mil
360 1.1mil
Wii 925k
PSP 800k
PS3 500k

 

[Majmun]

DS ~1.8mln
GBA ~ 1.4mln
PSP ~850k


X360 ~ 750k
Wii ~800k
Ps3 ~550k

Ps2 ~1.6mln
Cube ~100k
Xbox ~70k

 

[duk]

DS 1.75mil
GBA 1.2mil
PS2 1.25mil
360 1.15mil
Wii 1.05mil
PSP 750k
PS3 650k

 

[jgkspsx]

What the hey, I'll bite.

DS: 2.2M
GBA: 2.2M
PS2: 2M
X360: 1.1M
PSP: 1.1M
Wii: 0.9M
PS3: 400K

DS is based on very surprising if anecdotal personal experience. PS2 is still a monster and the pricepoint and library are unbeatable. GBA is still the #1 portable and cheap as dirt (making it a more likely impulse buy for parents near Xmas), but I think DS parity or lead happens this month. I'm hoping Xbox does better than I think it will (prediction is based on hope). The PSP didn't have any major pricedrops, but accessories were doing really big numbers, so I think it at least doubled last month. Wii must have sold every one that shipped; I think PS3 surpluses are an illusion.

Gameboy's are sold out (except the Micro)

Poor Micro.

 

[damisa]

DS- 3 million
PS2- 1.7million
GBA- 1.5 million
360- 1 million
PSP- 900k
wii- 800k
PS3- 700k

Reasoning:
Cheaper consoles (DS,PS2,GBA) usually have a higher percentage "jump" during the holidays then more expensive consoles (360,PSP). The wii/PS3 are supply constrained, so I just guessed reasonable numbers for those.

The DS numbers might seem high, but it's not unreasonable. DS's were nowhere to be found at christmas. PS2 managed over 2.7million one December, why not DS? Especially when you consider the fact that many families own multiple DS's (one for each kid) but only one PS2 is usually bought per family.

 

[Odysseus]

360 1.5 million

 

[AniHawk]

I'm gonna go for nice round numbers.

DS/DSL - 2,000,000 (as many as Nintendo could ship, really. And they shipped a LOT. Not to mention the thing did sell out)
PS2 - 1,500,000 (perhaps the last time we'll see the PS2 sell so much. ...Okay, probably not, but it'll be a huge amount, I'm sure)
GBA - 1,300,000 (just because parents are stupid and crazy and cheap, all at the same time)
Wii - 1,300,000 (again, as many as Nintendo can ship. If they ARE on track for 4m this year, then that means 1m for JP and EU, and about 2m for NA. And remember. There's no such thing as a complete 100% sellout)
PSP - 1,200,000 (Way up thanks to bundles and because people couldn't find DS Lites or Wiis)
360 - 1,200,000 (Up thanks to bundles and the standard holiday rush)
PS3 - 650,000 (Sony wasn't shipping a lot, but they were making their shipments every week. Way up from November)

 

[AniHawk]

I've never done this before

No kidding.

 

[Odysseus]

No kidding.

Now now, let's play nice with the noobies.

 

[LOCK]

December Predictions

Handhelds

Nintendo DS - 2.4mil
The DS is the system to have this holiday. We had people asking left and right for DS's and we were sold out. Plus the GBA could pull these numbers easily in Dec. If the supply was/is there I wouldn't be shocked to see higher numbers.

Nintendo Gameboy Advance ~ 1mil.
Really it all depends on how many GBA's where out there, if memory serves me right Nintendo cut there GBA production by alot....so this is in the blue.

Sony PSP - 1.395mil
The PSP is doing a little better than last year, so I expect its increase to be around the same for Dec.

Last Gen

Sony Playstation 2 - 1.2mil
This year seems like 2004 all over again, a big Nov but a moderate Dec.

Nintendo Gamecube - 160k
Its dead.

Microsoft Xbox - 10k if the supply is there.
Its dead...really.

Next Gen

Microsoft Xbox 360 - 1.3mil
It may sell more but it seems to be following the Xbox....

Nintendo Wii ~ 1mil
If Nintendo followed up and said that America was getting half of the 4 mil then sales should be close to 1.5, but its seems that Nintendo wasn't able to meet there predictions. If they do then I'll be shocked and happy.

Sony Playstation 3 ~ 500k
Its doing a little bit better than the 360, and I doubt Sony could make that many units in time to sell them. If they do then I'll be shocked.

 

[yoopoo]

Wow way too high Wii numbers, Nintendo's already said they won't ship a million this year in NA. And they already shipped 600k at launch.

 

[UncleGuito]

PSP - 1,200,000 (Way up thanks to bundles and because people couldn't find DS Lites or Wiis)

I could find DS Lites just fine. I work at Best Buy and we never ran out the whole holiday. And this is at the second busiest Best Buy in Michigan.

 

[jarrod]

DS 1,836,000
PS2 1,328,000
GBA 1,282,000
360 1,022,000
Wii 952,000
PSP 824,000
PS3 394,000
GC 138,000
XB 13,000

 

[RPS37]

All the stores in my area have been sold out of DS Lites right now.

>_<

This includes: Circuit City, Target, Wal-Mart, Best Buy.

It sucks.

 

[kenta]

No kidding.

hurr

You were born to be an EB/GS counter jockey, AniHawk, it suits you all too well

 

[Odysseus]

hurr

You were born to be an EB/GS counter jockey, AniHawk, it suits you all too well

I don't know. Nowhere in his reply did he ask you if you had any games to trade or if you wanted to preorder anything. It's a wonder he still has a job.

 

[AniHawk]

hurr

You were born to be an EB/GS counter jockey, AniHawk, it suits you all too well

Really? You should be behind the counter instead, since you admit you don't know what you're talking about.

 

[AniHawk]

I could find DS Lites just fine. I work at Best Buy and we never ran out the whole holiday. And this is at the second busiest Best Buy in Michigan.

Well SoCal may be a little more Nintendo oriented I guess. All those Hollywood movie stars buying pink DS Lites for their daughters and the like.

 

[Odysseus]

Really? You should be behind the counter instead, since you admit you don't know what you're talking about.

:lol

 

[Fuzzy]

I don't know. Nowhere in his reply did he ask you if you had any games to trade or if you wanted to preorder anything. It's a wonder he still has a job.

He keeps PMing me about it.

 

[kenta]

Really? You should be behind the counter instead, since you admit you don't know what you're talking about.

I'm not good at being a condescending prick, though and being ignorant is only half the job :/

 

[doicare]

DS 1.85m
PS2 1.4m
GBA 1.2m
360 1.05m
Wii 700K
PSP 650k
PS3 480K

 

[Fuzzy]

PS2 - 1.61 million
GCN - 140K
Xbox - 10K

Xbox 360 - 1.12 million
Wii - 890K
PS3 - 600K

DS - 2.26 million
GBA - 1.09 million
PSP - 850K

 

[Odysseus]

There's a lot of people optimistic about Wii shipments.

 

[maynerd]

Do we have legally available NPD numbers from Dec of last year?

 

[Cheebs]

DS 1625k
PS2 1278k
GBA 1013k
360 836k
Wii 729k
PSP 589k
PS3 417K

 

[jamesinclair]

This month is too much of a wildcard. Supply =/ deman in the case of the PS3, Wii and DS, making them hard to predict.

Ill shift through some numbers later and come up with a prediction, but Im sure at least one of my numbers will be WAAAY off.

 

[Leonsito]

What are the reasons to think that PSP could be over 1m ? What games launched this month?

 

[AniHawk]

There's a lot of people optimistic about Wii shipments.

I think the fact that Japan's getting as much as Nintendo promised (or thereabouts) combined with the huge shipments to stores (20 or more) has some believing they'll deliver on their shipments.

Once we get hardware dollars and numbers in, we can probably start the guesswork as to what really happened.

 

[Odysseus]

What are the reasons to think that PSP could be over 1m ? What games launched this month?

#1 reason - Christmas
#2 reason - it did it last year
#3 reason - Christmas

 

[AniHawk]

What are the reasons to think that PSP could be over 1m ? What games launched this month?

Nothing, really. It did better in November 2006 than November 2005 though, and based on that there's no reason for it to be lower than last year's sales of over 1,000,000.

 

[LuCkymoON]

DS 1,600K
PS2 1,400K
360 1,200K
GBA 1,000K
Wii 900K
PSP 450k
PS3 700K

 

[Odysseus]

I think the fact that Japan's getting as much as Nintendo promised (or thereabouts) combined with the huge shipments to stores (20 or more) has some believing they'll deliver on their shipments.

Once we get hardware dollars and numbers in, we can probably start the guesswork as to what really happened.

If I bothered with a prediction, I'd say 500-600K.

 

[MindCollizion]

What are the reasons to think that PSP could be over 1m ? What games launched this month?

And besides, I know ONE person who bought one this christmas! hehe That's sure to add up.

 

[davepoobond]

What are the reasons to think that PSP could be over 1m ? What games launched this month?

bigger memory sticks

 

[Odysseus]

And besides, I know ONE person who bought one this christmas! hehe That's sure to add up.

Conversely, I don't know anyone that bought one but I also don't know if I know anyone that did not buy one. Therefore, sales could easily be 250 million.

 

[sprsk]

Xbox360 500,000,000

 

[Leonsito]

Nothing, really. It did better in November 2006 than November 2005 though, and based on that there's no reason for it to be lower than last year's sales of over 1,000,000.

Didn't know that, then I guess that PSP over 1m wouldn't be a surprise.