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Official December NPD HW Prediction thread (Today's the day)

W

White Man

Member
A lot of people's Wii numbers seem high. I'd be very very surprised if they got close to a million units out there in December. For the first 15 days of the month, I'd rarely find places that were getting shipments, and the places that were seemed to be getting only a few units.

PS3 numbers are tough to call. There's been a lot of bad press, but it at least seems like they've been regular about getting units out.

DS is gonna be killer. I couldn't find a DS anywhere all month.

I think 360 will be in the 700-800 range. I'd like to see it do better, but the hype wasn't there for them this month.

I'd like to see Viva Pinata pick up this month (I'm hoping we're right about word of mouth on the game).
 
L

Leonsito

Member
Forgot my predictions:

DS: 1.850.000
PS2: 1.700.000
GBA: 1.100.000
PSP: 900.000
Wii: 850.000
Xbox360: 790.000
PS3: 540.000
Cube: 50.000
Xbox: 5.000
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Kiriku said:
Well, there's MGS: PO for example. Not a huge title, but it's certainly more than nothing at least. :p
Click to expand...

I know about MGS, but I was talking in the range of system-seller stuff. The last one of those that came out was VCS, and the GTA crowd's already come to the PSP by now.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
I guessed 1.1 mil Wii because of the 5 weeks and the two "launches" that Best Buy had. It's really only 220k per week. I also think that they were available but just spread out very thin.
 
T

trancejeremy

Banned
AniHawk said:
I know about MGS, but I was talking in the range of system-seller stuff. The last one of those that came out was VCS, and the GTA crowd's already come to the PSP by now.
Click to expand...

So MGS isn't a system seller? Then how come in all the PS3 is doomed threads MGS4 is considered to be the only reason to get a PS3 (or not, if it goes to the 360, too).
 
A

AniHawk

Member
trancejeremy said:
So MGS isn't a system seller? Then how come in all the PS3 is doomed threads MGS4 is considered to be the only reason to get a PS3 (or not, if it goes to the 360, too).
Click to expand...

MGS:pO, specifically.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
trancejeremy said:
So MGS isn't a system seller? Then how come in all the PS3 is doomed threads MGS4 is considered to be the only reason to get a PS3 (or not, if it goes to the 360, too).
Click to expand...

FFXIII.
 
W

White Man

Member
trancejeremy said:
So MGS isn't a system seller? Then how come in all the PS3 is doomed threads MGS4 is considered to be the only reason to get a PS3 (or not, if it goes to the 360, too).
Click to expand...

No, it's not. It was a system seller when MGS2 was hyped, but then, uh, MGS2 came out.

4 could potentially be big if it sets a graphical standard similar to MGS2 on the PS2, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
trancejeremy said:
So MGS isn't a system seller? Then how come in all the PS3 is doomed threads MGS4 is considered to be the only reason to get a PS3 (or not, if it goes to the 360, too).
Click to expand...
For GAF, not regular people. :D
 
B

Branduil

Member
I'll go from highest to lowest.

DS: 2,163,000

Really just a guess. Nintendo will sell as many as they can ship.

GBA: 1,687,000

I'm basing this on it's insane November sales and rumors.

PS2: 1,334,000

Still selling like crazy, no reason for it to stop now.

360: 1,243,000

I expect a price-drop next spring.

PSP: 1,068,000

Selling surprisingly well.

Now for the tricky ones:

Wii: 912,000

Wii's high numbers in Japan last week lead me to believe Nintendo may have been able to ship more than was initially believed. Still nowhere near 2 million though.

PS3: 520,000

I don't think they'll be able to manufacture enough to reach 1 million.
 
R

rage1973

Member
NDS 1950k (I saw this really well everywhere I saw and sold out in many places)
GBA 1200k (Greatly benefitted from NDS being sold out)
PS2 1150k (The price and some good games launching still keeping the system sales strong)
360 1140k (I saw several big stacks of them at Best Buy and they were mostly gone when I went back a week later. Should greatly benefit from PS3 and Wii shortage and also has the best game library on all new gen systems)
Wii 820k (Could have sold twice this amount if supply was there)
PSP 600k (Numbers are down since the PS3 launch hype is bringing down demand for other Sony products)
PS3 420k (I am starting this see this product on shelves this week so demand could be slowing down but supply constrained this month)
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
rage1973 said:
NDS 1950k (I saw this really well everywhere I saw and sold out in many places)
GBA 1200k (Greatly benefitted from NDS being sold out)
PS2 1150k (The price and some good games launching still keeping the system sales strong)
360 1140k (I saw several big stacks of them at Best Buy and they were mostly gone when I went back a week later. Should greatly benefit from PS3 and Wii shortage and also has the best game library on all new gen systems)
Wii 820k (Could have sold twice this amount if supply was there)
PSP 600k (Numbers are down since the PS3 launch hype is bringing down demand for other Sony products)
PS3 420k (I am starting this see this product on shelves this week so demand could be slowing down but supply constrained this month)
Click to expand...

OMG UR A LIER XBOT SONY HAITER HOW DAIR U SAES THATZ
 
W

Wollan

Member
I'll stick to the consoles:

X360 - 1.043.050

Wii - 520.035

PS3 - 555.555

29 days is a lot of days to sell stuff. And with PS3 shipments reports coming in everywhere (Sony shipping most over here due to poor chinese/yakuza buying everything in Japan?) I expect it to actually surpass the Wii numbers. I mean, several hardcore reporters have yet to attain a Wii. I have a somewhat positive view on the X360 sales and I think it will break the million just for being widely available. I think several people are still waiting for a price drop and with Halo 3 about a year away they're not in a hurry atm.
 
P

Parl

Member
I've never done this before, too, AniHawk. :p

DS - 2,170,000
PS2 - 1,305,000
GBA - 1,260,000
Xbox 360 - 1,207,000
PSP - 1,195,000
Wii - 770,000
PS3 - 450,000
 
A

AlphaSnake

...and that, kids, was the first time I sucked a dick for crack
Ehhh, what the hell.

DS 1.2K
PS2 900K
GBA 775K
360 650K
Wii 300K
PSP 550k
PS3 650K
 
P

pswii60

Member
trancejeremy said:
So MGS isn't a system seller? Then how come in all the PS3 is doomed threads MGS4 is considered to be the only reason to get a PS3 (or not, if it goes to the 360, too).
Click to expand...

Buzz, Singstar and EyeToy have been the real PS2 system sellers this last 2 years.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
richman555 said:
Who will be able to convert all of these PS2 owners? Will they all move to PS3 eventually? :)
Click to expand...

The type of person buying a PS2 for the first time now will be the type of person buying the market leader's console five years from now.

In other words, yes.
 
P

Parl

Member
Odysseus said:
The type of person buying a PS2 for the first time now will be the type of person buying the market leader's console five years from now.

In other words, yes.
Click to expand...

Wait a minute, that made no sense whatsoever. This implies that PS3 will be market leader.
 
P

Parl

Member
So we're talking about the niche market "Graphics whores and some other core gamers" and excluding Wii?

Screw this, I'm feeling crazy today. I wanna do a bet for a month's ban from posting with somebody. Is it possible for me to do this somehow?

Based on HW numbers for the 7 consoles I have predictions for below. The sum of the difference between each predicted figure and the actual NPD figure. The one with the highest collective figure obviously loses, and thus, is suspended for the month starting the day the figures come through.

DS - 2,170,000
PS2 - 1,305,000
GBA - 1,260,000
Xbox 360 - 1,207,000
PSP - 1,195,000
Wii - 770,000
PS3 - 450,000

I'll bet against multiple people if possible. Although I don't want all of my loses to add up. :p Put up your predictions if so.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
Odysseus said:
There's a lot of people optimistic about Wii shipments.
Click to expand...
Heh, I was thinking the opposite. I know launch makes for an especially large shipment, but considering NA is the larger market overall I'd be surprised if US sales for 5 weeks of December don't pass what they've been for the first 4 Japanese weeks (823K). So to see predictions like 700K or less seems weird.

Saoh said:
what do i win if i get it right?
Click to expand...
Self esteem. I'm still riding high from December 2003!
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
Parl said:
So we're talking about the niche market "Graphics whores and some other core gamers" and excluding Wii?
Click to expand...

I'm talking about among people that will actually buy video games and the systems that play them. Don't act surprised when those people continue to reject Nintendo and non-gamers continue to be non-gamers next year.
 
P

Parl

Member
Odysseus said:
I'm talking about among people that will actually buy video games and the systems that play them. Don't act surprised when those people continue to reject Nintendo and non-gamers continue to be non-gamers next year.
Click to expand...

I understand, but disagree. I think Wii will outsell both PS3 and 360 put together. I think 360 will outsell PS3 worldwide, too. Either way, I'm getting all three. Great games, for a person such as myself, on each one of them.
 
D

donny2112

Member
The "new" NPD GAF is starting out similar to the old one (prediction thread), so it'll be interesting to see how it progresses. Hopefully, there'll be a lot of software numbers listed at publicly available websites to discuss. :D

Note: I'm going to go ahead and predict GCN and XBX sales, but do we know if we'll get them this month?

Predictions

1. NDS - 1875K
2. PS2 - 1500K
3. GBA - 1100K
4. 360 - 1075K
5. PSP - 1025K
6. WII - 850K
7. PS3 - 450K
8. GCN - 170K
9. XBX - 8.75K
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
Parl said:
I understand, but disagree. I think Wii will outsell both PS3 and 360 put together. I think 360 will outsell PS3 worldwide, too. Either way, I'm getting all three. Great games, for a person such as myself, on each one of them.
Click to expand...

Hear, hear.

And I may not get any of them, don't know. So ultimately who cares, right?
 
P

Parl

Member
Can somebody give me some names of people who are typically best at predicting NPDs?

Odysseus said:
Hear, hear.

And I may not get any of them, don't know. So ultimately who cares, right?
Click to expand...

Well, I'd prefer Wii to win. Because the support will be there. I want more games to choose from and am not TOO bothered about graphics (but I do like great graphics), but the Wiimote is what I love more. And if the industry wraps itself more around good game design, good art design (because of lack of power), then when we see a big jump in graphics in 5 years (compared to Wii, so basically 360/PS3) then I think we'll enter another golden age of the industry. Like back in the early 90s.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Eh, here goes nothing.

DS - 1.8 mil
PS2 - 1.3 mil
360 - 1.1 mil
Wii - 800k
PSP - 700k
PS3 - 500k
GBA - 1 mil
GC - 100k
Xbox - 5k

Should be everything.
 
W

wandering goat

Member
This'll be my first time making predictions, so most of it will be complete guesswork, just for the fun of seeing how close I am.

1) NDS - 1.92 Million
2) PS2 - 1.49 Million
3) GBA - 1.05 Million
4) Wii - 913K
5) 360 - 900K
6) PSP - 720K
7) PS3 - 460K
 
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