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Official December NPD HW Prediction thread (Today's the day)

1) NDS= 2.1 million
2) GBA= 1.1 million
3) ps2 = 1.3 million
4) Xbox 360= 1 million
5) wii = 800k
6) ps3 = 650k
7) gamecube 150k
8) xbox = 70k
9) psp = 1.1 million
 

Krowley

Member
DS - 1.9mln
They were in short supply weeks before christmas due to high demand. I had a hell of a time finding one for my sister. I imagine the demand continued to grow and nintendo shipped plenty

Wii 900k
If you had asked me last week i would have said 600k, but the fact that they supplied about 300k to japan last week makes me think we may have gotten a similar surge here at the very last minute.

PS3 - 700k
reports of ps3's showing up on shelves has me leaning towards the idea that they've shipped a lot more than expected. I'm less sure about this prediction than any other because it's all anecdotal and it's hard to determine what's really happening. I wouldn't be surprised if i missed it by several 100k in either direction, but i'm guessing would take at least 700k shipments to dampen demand and cause them to sell more slowley.

GBA - 1.1mln
Last months results were pretty great... I expect this to continue.

PS2 - 1.3 mln
Did well last month and i expect another good month

360 - 900k
it was outsold last month by both the DS and the ps2. I don't see anything this month that could change that and if reports of greater than expected ps3 shipments are true, it could actually work against the 360 in december. I will be mildly surprised if it crosses the 1mln threshold. I think the hype for the other two new consoles is working against it in the short term.

PSP 700k
A decent month is to be expected.
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
For those of you posting high Xbox predictions, remember that the supply is virtually extinct. There will be no holiday boost because there is simply nothing left to boost. We've basically been seeing just statistical noise for the last few months. I would say anything over 10K is way too high.

In other news, it looks like Nintendo got one more round off before the close of this month's NPD. My work received 21 Wiis in this morning. Of course, they sold out shortly before my break started, leaving me very sad.

I'll put my predictions in sometime later, probably after the months ends. Hopefully I remember to do it this time.
 

Branduil

Member
JJConrad said:
In other news, it looks like Nintendo got one more round off before the close of this month's NPD. My work received 21 Wiis in this morning. Of course, they sold out shortly before my break started, leaving me very sad.

I have to think that if Nintendo shipped a lot of units in Japan last week they did the same thing for NA as well.
 

Striek

Member
DS ~ 2,123k - Around what the GBA did at a similar time in its life.
PS2 ~ 1,835k- PS2 was up a LOT in November over last year, where it did 1.5M.
PSP ~ 1,232k - It was marginally up last month vs. 2005, so it should be marginally up for December. But
X360 ~ 1,221k - Huge bundles + offers + marketing blitz = best December for an Xbox, ever.
GBA ~ 1,103k - It was down over last year for November by an awful lot, but December is cheap gift ftw month.
Wii ~ 901k - I'm totally confused with this, but uh, last week in Japan raised my expectations a LOT. It went from "4M? how the hell are they going to hit even 2M?!?!" to "oh snap stockpiling hardware FTW".
PS3 ~ 520k - Eh, most reports have it doing several times better than launch, but I doubt it. Nowhere near Wii, for sure.
GC ~ 231k - Zelda:TP superior version FTW.
Xbox ~ 20k - I predict an Xbox sellout, the last-gen war is over.
 

donny2112

Member
duderon said:
Do we know (or are we allowed to discuss) the last console to sell 2 million+ in a months time?

sonycowboy,
What past data are we allowed to discuss, if any? LTDs? YTDs? Specific past months? Graphs?

Note: Those questions are all for HW sales.

Is rounded HW sort of wide-open? I would think that software would be much more limited, though.
 

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
AlphaSnake said:
Ehhh, what the hell.

DS 1.2K
PS2 900K
GBA 775K
360 650K
Wii 300K
PSP 550k
PS3 650K
Do you know we got Nov. numbers already?

Anyway, this is mine:

DS - 2,097,000
PS2 - 1,346,000
X360 - 1,108,000
GBA - 1,059,000
PSP - 979,000
Wii - 943,000
PS3 - 578,000
GC - 245,000
Xbox - 12,000
 

yoopoo

Banned
Wow I can't believe people think Nintendo shipped 900k - 800k -700k or even 600k Wiis in December.

Bunch of nuts!
 

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
yoopoo said:
Wow I can't believe people think Nintendo shipped 900k - 800k -700k or even 600k Wiis in December.

Bunch of nuts!
So what do you think? less than 200k?
 

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
yoopoo said:
Nintendo have said they'll ship less a million in NA this year, they shipped 600k at launch....so take a guess.
Less than a million in NA this year? :lol :lol
Can you quote that statement from Nintendo?
 

ingrin

Member
NDS= 1.8 million
GBA= 1.3 million
ps2 = 1.2 million
Xbox 360= 1.1 million
psp = 950K
wii = 750k
ps3 = 500k
gamecube 100k
xbox = 10k
 

justchris

Member
My predictions:

DS: 2,212,000
I'm figuring about 350k-400k a week of production (which puts it about equal to what Japan's getting), plus remaining stock for November will easily launch the DS over 2 mil. How far over depends on remaining stock from last month.

PS2: 1,433,000
With Singstar finally getting US commercials, Guitar Hero II a runaway success, and the cheap price for a home console, it makes a great gift, not to mention the new slim version not everyone's picked up yet. If anything, it may turn out higher than this.

360: 1,096,000
No major releases to give it a boost, so it's gotta coast on Holiday sales. At the high price, and with two new launches to compete with, I don't see it drawing as much attention. But hey, maybe some of those Core packs finally sold.

GBA: 1,022,000
Cheap and still fairly plentiful, also great for the kids as christmas gifts. No new games (that anyone cares about, anyway...poor Yggdra Union) will mean this is purely a gift purchase, no one buying it for themselves.

Wii: 893,000
They sold 600k in NA (including Canada) in half a month. Shipments started slow, but picked up later on, so I'd say they're on track for 1.2 mill in NA. Assuming the same ratio of US to Canada, that'd put ~900k in the US with ~300k in Canada. Gave them a little benefit for an assumed production push right before Christmas.

PSP: 756,000
MGS: PO is going to be a system seller, but mostly to people who already have the system, unfortunately. Bundles will help, but the high price and negative buzz will tend to push gift givers to the DS & GBA, especially in the case of parents buying for kids.

PS3: 719,000
PS3 shipments have been steady, but incredibly small compared to Wii shipments at the beginning of the month, but picked up significantly near the end of the month. Their production problems seem to have cleared, and it looks like allocations have been pushed to the US in preference to Japan. With 5 total weeks, I think they'll track sllightly better than double what they did in half of November, but not by much due to the early production shortages.

GCN: 127,000
Hard to say. I agree with Ramasooir, Zelda isn't going to be enough to save the GC, and likely won't lead to many new consoles being sold. GC will mostly sell to people who had one, and need to pick it up again to play Zelda before it's put to rest.

Xbox: 12,000
Are they even still making these? Doesn't that cost them money they can't really get back?
 

threeball

Banned
I bet a weeks ban that 360 is under 1 million. I doubt its over 1 million.

My guesses:

DS: 2130k
GBA: 1560k
PS2: 1204k
Wii: 1200k
PSP: 980k
Xbox360: 772k
PS3: 660k
GCN: 90k
Xbox: 30k
 

duderon

rollin' in the gutter
Since no one has answered my question yet, i'll ask it again. Has any system sold more than 2 million hardware units in a month and what system(s) passed this milestone?
 

Odysseus

Banned
duderon said:
Since no one has answered my question yet, i'll ask it again. Has any system sold more than 2 million hardware units in a month and what system(s) passed this milestone?

PS2 did it in December 2002, I believe. Almost three million. GBA did it multiple times, also in December.
 

duderon

rollin' in the gutter
Odysseus said:
PS2 did it in December 2002, I believe. Almost three million. GBA did it multiple times, also in December.

Do you know specifics, like month, general number of units?
 

Odysseus

Banned
duderon said:
Do you know specifics, like month, general number of units?

I'm kind of unsure on what's allowable to say more than what I already posted. PS2 has the highest single month, but GBA has more months overall above the 2 million threshold (at least in the past several years). Every 2 million month has been December, for obvious reasons.

edit: Here's a link to a reputable site with December 02 numbers:

http://www.gaming-age.com/cgi-bin/specials/special.pl?spec=csection2&pagenum=1

"For those curious, for the month of December the PS2 sold approximately 2.7 million systems, the GBA came in second with 2.2 million, the Xbox third with 1 million and the GameCube last with 620,000 systems sold. "
 

threeball

Banned
Odysseus said:

Well we know how much you hate the Wii and how you are polluting this thread with how they are going to undership, so why don't you man up and bet a weeks ban that the Wii will not ship over the amount you said?
 

duderon

rollin' in the gutter
Odysseus said:
I'm kind of unsure on what's allowable to say more than what I already posted. PS2 has the highest single month, but GBA has more months overall above the 2 million threshold (at least in the past several years). Every 2 million month has been December, for obvious reasons.

edit: Here's a link to a reputable site with December 02 numbers:

http://www.gaming-age.com/cgi-bin/specials/special.pl?spec=csection2&pagenum=1

"For those curious, for the month of December the PS2 sold approximately 2.7 million systems, the GBA came in second with 2.2 million, the Xbox third with 1 million and the GameCube last with 620,000 systems sold. "

I know we're on shaky grounds with the whole npd situation, so thanks for the help.
 

Odysseus

Banned
threeball said:
Well we know how much you hate the Wii and how you are polluting this thread with how they are going to undership, so why don't you man up and bet a weeks ban that the Wii will not ship over the amount you said?

I was referring to the week ban. ;)

I've got a lifetime ban on the line! (Check the tag)
 

Odysseus

Banned
Link said:
I'm gonna guess he's safe.

Michael Pachter is never wrong. He said 360 will sell 2 million in Nov/Dec and, daggumit, 360 will sell 2 million in Nov/Dec. The man's a genius, for crying out loud.
 
duderon said:
Do we know (or are we allowed to discuss) the last console to sell 2 million+ in a months time?
GBA+SP in December 2004 (and 2003 and 2002). PS2 did in December 2002, and came very close on the years to either side.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
DS 1,800k
PS2 1,400k
GBA 1,150k
360 1,350k
Wii 700k
PSP 750k
PS3 450k

Reasoning, per sonycowboy's request.

DS - The only reason I didn't fully double the November number is that I think Nintendo has run into some shortages, as they have in Japan.

PS2 - Just following seasonal trending here, with some extra because of the optimal shopping schedule.

GBA - Ditto the PS2.

360 - Total wildcard, and I may be too aggressive. I base this one partly on the success of Gears of War, which was announced to have passed two million sold WW on December 15th. We know it hit a full million in the US thanks to NPD in November. Assuming ~60% of sales come from the US (which is the hardware ratio for NA), that's another 600k for Gears with the two busiest weekends to go; it could top another million in the US alone in December. I think the game is moving some decent hardware. At the end of November, 39% of US 360 owners had the game. My prediction of 1.3m pushes that up to 43%, assuming another million units of Gears sell. I don't see it reaching a deeper penetration than that. Still, this is the prediction I'm the least comfortable with. Another factor in the larger than seasonal increase is the optimal shopping schedule this year, and MS is not supply constrained.

Wii - This would put 1.2m in the US by the end of the year. That yanked press release excerpt referenced "over a million" in the US by the end of the year, which I think was a clue that it won't be much more than a million (or they would have said "nearly two million"). The wrist strap replacement may have slowed output as well. They are selling all that they ship.

PS3 - Really not sure here. I don't trust any anecdotal evidence, so I'm assuming that what gets to store shelves will sell, or 99.99% of them will. This forecase is assuming that production is ramping up faster than MS managed to, with Japanese sales seem to indicate. Still very constrained, though. This would put 650k installed in the US at the end of the year, leaving 350k in the non-store shelf part of the "pipeline" Sony keeps talking about. Considering Sony starts that pipeline from finished goods part of the factory floor, that just feels about right.
 
DS lite: 2.1 million (it's the DS)
PS2: 1.4 million (cheap, brand, etc.)
GBA: 1.5 million (cheap, brand, etc.)
PSP: 1.1 million (MGS:pO and VCS)
Wii: 850k (shipments)
360: 750k (GoW)
PS3: 400k (dying interest, mainly due to... well who the hell is going to get a 600 dollar Christmas present?)
GCN: 97k (TP)
Xbox: 22k (dead system)
 

Deku

Banned
DS 1.8 million
This is a total shot in the dark since it appears to be supply constrained just like PS3 and Wii. I'll just follow the general rule of thumb of 2*November. If Nintendo ships less it could be much less. But I can see an upside of up to 2~2.2 million units for this one.

PS2 1.2 million
Brisk sales, plentiful supply. Strong November.

Xbox360 1.1 million
I think it will do this well. If not better. Anything below this (depending on how low) will porbably be judged as a disappointed by patcher and some Gaffers.

Wii 1.0 million (1.2 AMERICAS)
Obviously supply constrained. There's downside potential for the numbers coming in below 1 million in the NPD tracking, but if it goes above 1 million, I think we're on the outperform territory.

GBA 800k
Strong performer and is a great value/entry game platform for a lot of consumers. It still has shelf space right alongside DS in almost every retail store. If the DS is sold out and junior wants a portable for Christmas, giftgivers are more likely to gravitate towards GBA than PSP.

PS3 750K (850k AMERICAS)
The falling prices on Ebay indicates quite convincingly that supply is catching up to demand. A point of contention on GAF is whether demand is moving up along with supply, or whether it has stayed fairly constant and supply simply overshot it. Another alternate theory is that many have simply given up finding one this year, leaving certain markets where demand is artificially depressed. I think all 3 factors are in play. Sony will sell everything they ship, in due time, but the impression of plentiful supply might be an illusion. I'll eat my hat if Sony hits 1 million PS3s sold in December.

PSP 700K
Not a sell out in many markets, weak advertising campaign, and the big releases namely MGS:pO hits the same demographics that most likely would already own a PSP.

NGC/XBOX - 100K combined.
 

bycha

Junior Member
DS 2.05M
GBA 1.3M
PS2 1.25M
360 0.97M
Wi 0.9M
PSP 0.8M
PS3 0.65M
GC 0.15M

DS -- is hottest piece of hardware and it's price is a perfect match for christmas.
GBA -- still strong and it always was strong christmas performer.
PS2 -- with so much to buy this christmas I don't think ps2 gonne double it's november numbers.
360 -- even with all rebates they have trouble sellin it. And no Gears of War this month.
Wii -- if the will ship 1M in japan they i'm pretty sure they shipped at least this much in december in US.
PSP -- I was surprised with november numbers and i think MGS can keep it strong for it's last good december.
PS3 -- I believe they shipped this much.
 

Liquid

Banned
my predictions...

ps3
07-minister.jpg

360
nwa4yc.jpg

wii
happy_dance.gif
 

thekad

Banned
DS - 1.8 million
PS2 - 1.4 million
360 - 1.4 million
GBA - 1.2 million
PSP - 900k
Wii - 600k
PS3 - 550k
GC - 160k
Xbox - 50k

:D
 

dirtmonkey37

flinging feces ---->
Lapsed said:
DS 1,800,000
PS2 1,500,000
GBA 900K
360 900K
Wii 600K
PSP 500k
PS3 450K

Reasoning:

DS - Perfect kid's gift. Reasonable to go bullish on DS predictions this month.agreed
PS2 - Priced right for a casual gift. Should perform very well.agree
GBA - This is wildcard. Perfect kid's gift for Christmas. DS sales might be eating into it.agreed. Inexpensive, reliable, and popular
360 - I expect pretty good 360 sales. Not too affordable, but it should do well regardless. Great software out to push the sales
Wii - Undershipping. Will will sell 2 to 1 to PS3. But I'm still conservative on its numbers.agreed
PSP - The least 'in-demand' 7th generation system. I'll go conservative on it. agreed
PS3 - Undershipped.agreed....

There you go. I edited your post with my opinions.
 
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