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Official December NPD HW Prediction thread (Today's the day)

D

dammitmattt

Banned
We need to have a thread with all of the ban bets based on the December NPD. I know we're going to have to pour one out for threeball, but who else?
 
S

sphinx

the piano man
PhoenixDark said:
Killzone PSP might be the greatest thing ever on a hardcore message board like GAF but in real life most people don't knoe it exists. The same can be said of games like Daxter and Syphon Filter, which have gotten good reviews but have bombed. People simply aren't interested in those titles.
Click to expand...

I don't think people make up there midns that much about having interest or not on something. The marketing process is what will determine if a product reaches a decent level of excitement among consumers.

Killzone, Daxter, Syphon Filter, Loco Roco, and many more have been victims of the punniest and lamest marketing plan ever in the last 2 gaming generations.

Did the PS2 fanbase got to know how good is Syphon filter? No, because all there was, were magazine ads, that don't do anything for a product.

look at the huge articles written about brain-age, the way the media treated the topic.

sony dropped the ball, IMO.
 
J

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
Software Predictions:

FFIII - 100K
GTA:VCS - 100K
MGS:pO - 150K
Kirby - 100K
GHII - 100K
Zelda:TP (Wii) - 400K
Zelda:TP (GCN) - 100K
Gears - 999K :lol
Resistance - 200K

3rd party Wii software bomba left & right.
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
I predicted this before:

DS - 2,097,000
PS2 - 1,346,000
X360 - 1,108,000
GBA - 1,059,000
PSP - 979,000
Wii - 943,000
PS3 - 578,000
GC - 245,000
Xbox - 12,000
Click to expand...

But I want to change it to:

DS - 2,097,000
Wii - 1,181,000
PS2 - 1,055,000
GBA - 1,049,000
X360 - 1,032,000
PSP - 979,000
PS3 - 578,000
GC - 245,000
Xbox - 12,000
 
B

Branduil

Member
Branduil said:
I'll go from highest to lowest.

DS: 2,163,000

Really just a guess. Nintendo will sell as many as they can ship.

GBA: 1,687,000

I'm basing this on it's insane November sales and rumors.

PS2: 1,334,000

Still selling like crazy, no reason for it to stop now.

360: 1,243,000

I expect a price-drop next spring.

PSP: 1,068,000

Selling surprisingly well.

Now for the tricky ones:

Wii: 912,000

Wii's high numbers in Japan last week lead me to believe Nintendo may have been able to ship more than was initially believed. Still nowhere near 2 million though.

PS3: 520,000

I don't think they'll be able to manufacture enough to reach 1 million.
Click to expand...


I'm changing my Wii guesstimate to

Wii: 1,265,000
 
C

Cheebs

Member
jj984jj said:
Software Predictions:

FFIII - 100K
GTA:VCS - 100K
MGS:pO - 150K
Kirby - 100K
GHII - 100K
Zelda:TP (Wii) - 400K
Zelda:TP (GCN) - 100K
Gears - 999K :lol
Resistance - 200K

3rd party Wii software bomba left & right.
Click to expand...
Explain how only 400k of zelda sold when we know Wii sold 1.2-1.3 million?
 
D

donny2112

Member
jj984jj said:
Software Predictions:

Zelda:TP (Wii) - 400K
Zelda:TP (GCN) - 100K
Click to expand...

:lol

Do you realize how sold out the GCN version of Twilight Princess was during December? The only way it would sell that little is if Nintendo shipped that little, and I'm pretty sure they didn't. I'd say more like 750K for each version, 1.5 million total.
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
donny2112 said:
:lol

Do you realize how sold out the GCN version of Twilight Princess was during December? The only way it would sell that little is if Nintendo shipped that little, and I'm pretty sure they didn't. I'd say more like 750K for each version, 1.5 million total.
Click to expand...

I would be SHOCKED if the GC version of Zelda sold this much. Absolutely SHOCKED.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Odysseus won't be banned, but threeball will lose his ban bet. But he's already banned!
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
I'm looking forward to this just to all the analyst prediction threads come to a halt for December. We've never had so many prediction/debate threads ahead of an NPD thread before, and it's been exhausting.
 
D

duderon

rollin' in the gutter
What's with all the prediction changes??

We should make a rule that the predicting ends a week before the NPD comes out, or something to that affect.
 
B

Bo130

Member
Odysseus said:
~9:30 pm gmt
Click to expand...

I can't figure out the time difference without doing a lot of hard work - could you tell me how much time there's to ~9:30 pm gmt now? Would be a lot easier for me :)
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
Bo130 said:
I can't figure out the time difference without doing a lot of hard work - could you tell me how much time there's to ~9:30 pm gmt now? Would be a lot easier for me :)
Click to expand...

right now, it's 6:56 pm gmt
 
K

Krowley

Member
If i was allowed to change predictions, i would up my wii guess to 1.2 million and lower my ps3 expectations to 500k...

But i actually don't think i should be allowed to change my prediction so late in the game, so i'll leave it.
:D
 
M

Mrbob

Member
tjhooker said:
PS2: 2M
Wii: 1.2M
PS3: 750K
360: 500K
Click to expand...

tjhookervb3.jpg


Don't ever change, TJHooker!

The hardware numbers will be interesting, but so will the sub battle between software sales with Gears and Zelda! :)
 
A

AirBrian

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I'm looking forward to this just to all the analyst prediction threads come to a halt for December. We've never had so many prediction/debate threads ahead of an NPD thread before, and it's been exhausting.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the bigger this industry is getting, the more attention it's receiving. And not only that, but with MS giving Sony a run for their money so far and Nintendo coming out of nowhere with the DS and now Wii, it's been a fun couple of years.
 
J

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
Yeah... well I suck at predicting sales, especially December sales so don't take my predictions on or anything. :p
 
Haunted

Haunted

Member
current-gen
Wii - 1.3M
X360 - 1M
PS3 - 580.000

last-gen
PS2 - 920.000

handhelds
DS - 1.8M
GBA - 1.1M
PSP - 960.000
 
A

AirBrian

Member
My predictions:

DSL - 2,200,000
WII - 1,325,000
360 - 1,300,000
PS2 - 1,250,000
GBA - 1,200,000
PSP - 1,000,000
PS3 - 650,000
GCN - 250,000
XBX - 125,000
 
Nameless

Nameless

Member
This board is gonna fall.. Theres already like 2000 people on, and its an hour before the numbers are released..

Come on guys, don't destroy GAF over sales figures!!
 
L

Leonsito

Member
If the rumours of DS, PSP, GBA, 360, Wii and PS2 over 1m is true, could this be the biggest month ever in terms of hardware sales in USA ?
 
R

Region-FreeWii

Member
Region-FreeWii said:
2.23m DS
1.64m PS2
1.12m GBA
932k X360
907k PSP
839k NWii
656k PS3
128k GCN
12k Xbox
Click to expand...

Going by updated predictions I might have underestimated the Wii, and maybe overestimated the PS2/GBA. I stand by everything else. We'll see. :)
 
D

donny2112

Member
allan-bh said:
The hardware numbers and top 20 software (promised for NPD) they go to appear today here?
Click to expand...

Hopefully we'll get a lot more than just 20 between NPD directly and media sites. WMS was predicting 135 games to sell over 100K for December.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Jonsoncao said:
4:30 EST or PST ??:lol :lol :lol :lol
Click to expand...
Half an hour from now. You do the math. :p

The actual numbers usually hit about a half hour after the market closes. However, we have no idea when NPD sends out their summary to the media. I'm kind of expecting them to "forget" to send GAF anything. :lol
 
B

Busaiku

Member
Nintendo DS - 2,265,000
Playstation 2 - 1,642,000
Wii - 1,492,000
X-Box 360 - 1,313,000
Gameboy Advance - 998,000
Sony PSP - 768,000
Playstation 3 - 622,000
Gamecube - 77,000
X-Box - 12,000
 
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