My thoughts from another thread.
TLDR: Maybe it 'should' cost $499. They have to hit $399 for reasons...
Ive no idea how much this will cost to make. I've no idea if MS will get a good ROI on the box.
I just do not see a scenarios where they announce $499 price.
This is for a few reasons.
1. Phil Spencer had the unenviable task of announcing the price in 2013. Forget all the Kinect, TV TV TV, and DRM nonsense. $499 did not wash. Remember his reaction? And the crowds? Watch here:
https://youtu.be/B2zslQ9PWPQ
2. The One S is currently RRP $249 with a bundled game. It will likely, closer to Scoprio launch and the holidays, drop to at least $229 RRP. Maybe even lower. The Scorpio plays the same games, uses the same accessories. Can they 'sell' a 4k upgrade for potentially double the price?
3. The competition. The PS4 Pro RRP is $399. You can expect a bundled game and/or a a price drop approaching Holiday 2017 to say $349. At $499, Scorpio would be 25-43% more expensive. It would not wash.
So, putting aside how much this 'should' cost... I can not see a price higher than $399.