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[capslock]

 

[Mojovonio]

:lol

GAF is infamous!

COME ON ELIJAH WOOD! DEFEND US!

 

[dralla]

 

[The Faceless Master]

how in the world did some people get the idea that Pachter was referring to *every single member* of NeoGAF when talking about sales predictions?

then again, if he was, it would be a really easy way to "win"

"I can predict figures better than 21K people that don't do it"

is alot easier to prove than

"I can predict figures better than 200 people who routinely beat me at it"

honestly though, i saw him on Bonus Round and he seems to be a really nice guy!

 

[Bildi]

I'd like to see a blind prediction this month on GAF, I get the feeling a few people see what the consistently accurate people post and "slightly" edit theirs around it.

To be honest, I'm not sure this happens much. I am probably being naive but I blow enough time coming up with predictions as it is without trying to analyse over a period of time who has the most consistent predictions and copying them.

On another note, I can't believe people in the industry comment on GAF rather than any other board so much. No wonder we have a big head.

 

[Deku]

GAF's general predictive abilities are terrible. GAF sale-age predictions are quite good. I think Pachter was referring to the former.

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

I agree with Patcher.

Half the posters on this forum would give thier left nut for his job, and none of them have actually pulled it off. Plus, there is a large number of incredibly stupid people here. Pachter's right.

 

[Souldriver]

Patcher's first market share predictions for this generation was something like 50% PS3, 40% 360, 10% Wii.

Yeah, and of course you can change your predictions from time to time, but even with all the adjustments and obvious signs and facts from the actual sales numbers, he still can't predict to save his life.

Edit: and I find it stupid for people from the industry to feel the need to comment on Neogaf when they feel offended/misunderstood/... First the 1up bunch and now Pachter

Spoiler

(love how still half of gaf says his name wrong )

.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I can't speak to the accuracy of those previous yearly predictions, but here's a long-term prediction from two years ago:

So my guess is that it'll take a while for Sony to overcome that first-year advantage, but in five years [it will look like this:]: Microsoft at 30-35 percent, Sony at 45-55 percent, and Nintendo at what's left.

 

[Version 3.0]

Half the posters on this forum would give thier left nut for his job, and none of them have actually pulled it off. Plus, there is a large number of incredibly stupid people here. Pachter's right.

Maybe so, but he also defended his own numbers as being "spot on", which is at the very least a distortion of the truth.

 

[apujanata]

I've got his reports for the past 4-5 years, but since NPD is restrictive on publishing actuals, I'll just report his estimates for the this year and next as a starter.

2007
Wii 7.0M
NDS 6.0M
360 4.5M
PS3 4.5M
PS2 3.5M
PSP 3.4M
GBA 1.8M

2008
Wii 7.0M
PS3 6.0M
NDS 6.0M
360 5.0M
PSP 4.0M
PS2 2.5M
GBA 0.8M

I'll do my own prediction for at least Y2008 (it is not fair to do 2007 now, since it is almost half done). Let's see who is closer, me or him

 

[Souldriver]

Maybe so, but he also defended his own numbers as being "spot on", which is at the very least a distortion of the truth.

Well, that is what he does best.


j/k

 

[Mojovonio]

"Michael, this is Bub. GAF is getting their torches and Pitchforks. I think you should leave town for a while. You really stirred up a hornet's nest over here."

 

[Oblivion]

Sounds about right. Wii might nudge higher than that, but people will come to their senses soon enough.

I guess that could apply for Pachter and quite a few others on GAF as well.

 

[pilonv1]

Maybe so, but he also defended his own numbers as being "spot on", which is at the very least a distortion of the truth.

So you've seen all his numbers then?

 

[Mr_Furious]

He admited that on CAGcast 2 months ago.

Some of us don't listen to CAGcast

 

[JDSN]

To all the people saying "LOL BuT GAf SAYD Wii ws doomed1!", lets not forget that his predictions were pretty similar too.

 

[Y2Kev]

Do not anger Sales Age. Holy crap you guys.

 

[Pachael]

Maybe so, but he also defended his own numbers as being "spot on", which is at the very least a distortion of the truth.

Isn't that what usually happens here anyway? 'Oh wait for X!! Then the PS3 will definitely make a comeback!' or 'Xbump's going to boost console sales' or 'Hey the PS3 will eventually win the generation, mark my words'.

Not: 'You know, I think I might have shown off my Sony card when I said that PS3 will dominate just like the PS2 did. I'm sorry, and acknowledge the competition. I was terribly wrong about this one, especially when I really wanted to get back the DS beating the PSP.'

 

[cicero]

You mean the 10 - 12 members that put the work in and do research...
The same 10 - 12 members that write parsers, macros, to accurately extract data
The same 10-12 members that take the time to write charts, graphs, plots, and long summaries to talk about their findings...
Tehs ame 10-12 members that perhaps spend a good deal of money on books about the field (Blue Ocean, Software Industry Analysis etc?)
The same 10 - 12 members that spend hours looking at trends and data and sales, even if it means illegally getting that information, because they love that field of predictions and software analysis

Those few that have a say in the matter?I don't think it's those few that are doing the childish flaming and ridiculing.

Or the 80%+ that just ride on the coattails of those same, dedicated members. The 80% that sit back and insult every dedicated person in the videogame industry, that sit back and insult and mock and ridicule people who strive to be like those 10 - 12 members (Here's a toast to Lapsed, ioi, Square2005, apujanata, donny,ethel, josh, panther, Rockman, Amused, jokeropia, fuzzy, cvx etc) because that same 80% is too lazy to get up and try themselves but would rather pick apart those who are trying to make it in the industry>?

I don't know about anyone else here, but I just have to respect someone who has the guts to show this kind of loyalty to his e-friends. BFFL, man. BFFL.

 

[Crisis]

Here's a forecast for you:

The streets will run red with Pachter's blood!

Spoiler

I kid, please don't ban me, kthx.

 

[LanceStern]

To lance stern for someone that tells folks to layoff on the cussing to have this in your name speaks loads:

Really ****ing creepy too. Christ.

Yeah its ok for you but lord help and anyone else.

That isn't mine; the moderators make our tags, like yours says junior member.

 

[Fusebox]

So you've seen all his numbers then?

Well by Patchers own admission, "The console is lagging behind my initial expectations by at least 200,000 units per month in the U.S., and I don't know why." so saying his numbers are 'spot on' does seem a fairly big stretch to me.

 

[BorkBork]

Thread bookmarked for future hilarity.

 

[grandjedi6]

But Pachter actually gets paid....

 

[medrew]

If you go into the NPD threads and take everything on face value without knowing a posters alliances then he's not wrong. There's definitely some over zealous, eccentric posters on GAF that wouldn't be able to do a decent forecast (too much bias to be neutral).
However, Pachter can't really take a high-ground based on his predictions and forecasts on hardware. He's better with the software companies he follows on the stock exchange (but then he can forecast how well their games will do on actual install base as opposed to trying to guess how big the install base will be).

 

[Branduil]

Sounds about right. Wii might nudge higher than that, but people will come to their senses soon enough.

:lol

I actually feel sorry for Pachter. He's got LanceStern defending him.

 

[LanceStern]

:lol

I actually feel sorry for Pachter. He's got LanceStern defending him.

I'm going to take that comment with a grain of salt.

 

[DarienA]

Pachter calls out GAF... not impressed.
A high level executive at one of the big 3 calls out GAF..... then give me a call.

 

[Musashi Wins!]

You guys should listen to this podcast. It's great.

 

[MercuryLS]

I like Pachter, you guys suck.

 

[pilonv1]

Well by Patchers own admission, "The console is lagging behind my initial expectations by at least 200,000 units per month in the U.S., and I don't know why." so saying his numbers are 'spot on' does seem a fairly big stretch to me.

People are bitching about him getting his hardware wrong when they haven't seen everything he does. Typical GAF MO though, criticise what you don't know.

 

[Fusebox]

Well, I do have the unique ability to form an opinion on absolutely anything based on absolutely no information.

 

[Branduil]

I'm going to take that comment with a grain of salt.

Help yourself.

 

[BuzzJive]

As the overall 2007 monthly sales estimates reigning champ - all I have to say on the matter is to let your numbers do to talking Pachter*. Monthly estimates. June 2007. Be there.


*PM me if you want to buy my forecasts.

 

[Pazuzu]

I'm sorry, there is no correct formula to predict the market forecast of the gaming industry. The best you can do is have some basic understanding of the games industry, try to be as objective as possible, and apply simple common sense. Even then...I mean look...just 2 or 3 killer apps coming out of nowhere can change the entire landscape of the industry, and probably will this generation.

A few key titles coming out at the right time, with a strong marketing campaign could keep Wii hardware selling at the rate it is now for a long time, without those titles it could go the way of the 'cube. On the other side, a couple killer titles for the PS3 could shift everything in Sony's favor again.

What's my point? Common Sense>Pachter

 

[Fuzzy]

You mean the 10 - 12 members that put the work in and do research...
The same 10 - 12 members that write parsers, macros, to accurately extract data
The same 10-12 members that take the time to write charts, graphs, plots, and long summaries to talk about their findings...
Tehs ame 10-12 members that perhaps spend a good deal of money on books about the field (Blue Ocean, Software Industry Analysis etc?)
The same 10 - 12 members that spend hours looking at trends and data and sales, even if it means illegally getting that information, because they love that field of predictions and software analysis

Those few that have a say in the matter?I don't think it's those few that are doing the childish flaming and ridiculing.

Or the 80%+ that just ride on the coattails of those same, dedicated members. The 80% that sit back and insult every dedicated person in the videogame industry, that sit back and insult and mock and ridicule people who strive to be like those 10 - 12 members (Here's a toast to Lapsed, ioi, Square2005, apujanata, donny,ethel, josh, panther, Rockman, Amused, jokeropia, fuzzy, cvx etc) because that same 80% is too lazy to get up and try themselves but would rather pick apart those who are trying to make it in the industry>?

I think you're mistaken, I'm just cvxfreak's joke character that's not funny.

 

[Sean*O]

What a liar. I hope his bosses aren't buying into his bullSHIT. All one need do is look at his past predictions to see that they don't = what can be called "being right." The guy is delusional.

 

[Amused_To_Death]

I've got his reports for the past 4-5 years, but since NPD is restrictive on publishing actuals, I'll just report his estimates for the this year and next as a starter.

2007
Wii 7.0M
NDS 6.0M
360 4.5M
PS3 4.5M
PS2 3.5M
PSP 3.4M
GBA 1.8M

2008
Wii 7.0M
PS3 6.0M
NDS 6.0M
360 5.0M
PSP 4.0M
PS2 2.5M
GBA 0.8M

Hmmm

We expect the dominant console at the end of the next cycle to be the Sony PlayStation 3 (PS3), primarily due to our assessment that Sony will win the high definition DVD format war. However, we expect Microsoft’s Xbox 360 to enjoy a first mover advantage for the next two years, capturing approximately 42% of U.S. and European combined next generation hardware unit sales through 2007. We forecast the PS3 and Nintendo’s Wii to capture approximately 39% and 19%, respectively, of the next generation hardware market in this same period. As consumers begin to purchase a second console, we think that market shares will normalize, with Sony capturing around 45% of the total market, Microsoft capturing 35%, and Nintendo capturing 20%. These estimates do not include market shares in Japan, which we expect to be dominated by Sony (65% through 2010) and Nintendo (25%).

 

[Musashi Wins!]

I'm sorry, there is no correct formula to predict the market forecast of the gaming industry. The best you can do is have some basic understanding of the games industry, try to be as objective as possible, and apply simple common sense. Even then...I mean look...just 2 or 3 killer apps coming out of nowhere can change the entire landscape of the industry, and probably will this generation.

A few key titles coming out at the right time, with a strong marketing campaign could keep Wii hardware selling at the rate it is now for a long time, without those titles it could go the way of the 'cube. On the other side, a couple killer titles for the PS3 could shift everything in Sony's favor again.

What's my point? Common Sense>Pachter

You have a great avatar.

btw, you really need to listen to the podcast. He doesn't claim he has a formula or that what he does is a science. He also doesn't overplay the value of himself or analysts. He gets paid by being accurate in the earnings of specific companies, and the rest is fun.

Seriously, listen to this, I like this Pachter fellow now.

1up may have the funniest podcasts, but this is far and away the most informative game podcast I've heard in a while.

You guys are tilting at windmills in here.

 

[Awntawn]

I love how the people of the internet like to "quote" non-quotes.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

People are bitching about him getting his hardware wrong when they haven't seen everything he does. Typical GAF MO though, criticise what you don't know.

I'm not a Pachter hater or anything, but... why does that matter? If one specific thing is getting criticized, it isn't changed because he's good at something else.

 

[dionysus]

Pachter has a tough job at GAF, he is only ever going to be compared against the predictions that proved correct.

I mean, I read more dumb predictions like "Sony am doomed. Sony is going to fold gaming division. Microsoft quality problems will lower their sales to 50k a month when people find out. Etc." Yet Pachter's predictions are never compared to those.

Not to mention every time he makes a prediction that doesn't agree with a fanboy, he has gained a lifetime enemy who is going to comb through every prediction from here to eternity to find when he made a bad prediction.

 

[drohne]

bobobo my npd predictions are consistently closer than patchtchters by tens of thousands of units (if not hundreds) this is obviously just his fear of sales age talking i mean imagine the notion that he does useful work while we just stroke off to numbers we don't understand i mean it simply isnt plausible snort market analysis has been democratized bitches and sales age is on the ****in FOREFRONT

 

[Evlar]

You have a great avatar.

btw, you really need to listen to the podcast. He doesn't claim he has a formula or that what he does is a science. He also doesn't overplay the value of himself or analysts. He gets paid by being accurate in the earnings of specific companies, and the rest is fun.

Seriously, listen to this, I like this Pachter fellow now.

1up may have the funniest podcasts, but this is far and away the most informative game podcast I've heard in a while.

You guys are tilting at windmills in here.

Yeah, I don't have anything against Pachter. Not a bad guy.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Heck, you don't even have to go back one year. Pahcter's 360 numbers for October, November, December were constantly super high... then revised downward... and then still way too high. Pacther can't even get short term predictions right.

 

[pilonv1]

bobobo my npd predictions are consistently closer than patchtchters by tens of thousands of units (if not hundreds) this is obviously just his fear of sales age talking i mean imagine the notion that he does useful work while we just stroke off to numbers we don't understand i mean it simply isnt plausible snort market analysis has been democratized bitches and sales age is on the ****in FOREFRONT

:lol :lol

 

[Pazuzu]

btw, you really need to listen to the podcast. He doesn't claim he has a formula or that what he does is a science. He also doesn't overplay the value of himself or analysts. He gets paid by being accurate in the earnings of specific companies, and the rest is fun.

Seriously, listen to this, I like this Pachter fellow now.

Alright, I'll give it a listen. I was just upset that the first thing I read with my coffee this morning is an analyst dissing GAF. However it sounds in the interview, he just comes off like an ass in the quotes.

I've seen some pretty accurate predictions and analysis of the industry here. We're not all misinformed fanboys that just react to anything gaming related in the news and...I'll just stop right there.

 

[Musashi Wins!]

Alright, I'll give it a listen. I was just upset that the first thing I read with my coffee this morning is an analyst dissing GAF. However it sounds in the interview, he just comes off like an ass in the quotes.

I've seen some pretty accurate predictions and analysis of the industry here. We're not all misinformed fanboys that just react to anything gaming related in the news and...I'll just stop right there.

Good. It's really interesting, and he isn't smug at all though he's confident of his overall earning expectations. Far less so when it comes to particular consoles.

Really likeable interview, actually.

 

[PantherLotus]

Not sure where I'm coming in at, but I'll assert the following:

1. Pachter's predictions aren't that bad usually, it's just that he lets his mouth do more talking than his work. As a professional of his caliber he should know better.

2. He is currently suffering from a huge backlash against his prediction that the PS3 and 360 would really take off. He got caught up in the hype...or he has a singular focus on American sales which could really blind somebody trying to judge an industry that is historically precedent-setting in Japan.

3. While I and I'm sure many others around here (esp. the Sales-Age kids) would take the pepsi challenge to his shit any day...I don't think he's that far off about the majority of people that have no idea what they're talking about. This is the same forum that produced such fine gems as jimbo, the guy that thought the 360 was making a come back in Japan.