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[Beerman462]

PS4 Pro is using a different GPU than PS4, not just double the CU’s, but a generation ahead with some features coming from the one even beyond that. PS4 Pro has excellent support of PS4 games. It could be something PS4 architects/designers built in/accounted for from the get go too.

They wanted something they could sell at $399 a year ago and they also knew what kind of modifications were possible at that time (they packed quite a lot of them that developers still are not using...

Gonna need to see some receipts on this, I won't hold my breath though.

 

[JareBear: Remastered]

I think we'll see a PS4 super slim that may not have a disk drive as the cheapest option with a Pro Slim taking the price point of the current Slim at some point.

That would never happen.

The “physical media is dying” people are wrong. There will always be disc drives

 

[Negotiator]

yeah... no. next gen games aren't using 2013 laptop architecture as a baseline

Next-gen games will use 2020 laptop architecture (aka Ryzen Mobile) as a baseline though.

Forward compatibility with PS4 would harm PS5 titles’ ability to differentiate and would have PS5 games be held back by a much much slower platform. If developers want to target PS4 specs with their games they can publish the PS4 version of the game too IMHO. Hardcore gamers should want their console to be fully used and its games not held back in a much much longer cross generational period, all gamers should want it actually .

3rd parties = they will keep making PS4 games for another 2-3 years (until 2022-2023) and Sony will offer the option of "PS5 patches", which should allow the same games to run up to 4k and 60 fps.

1st parties = they will only make next-gen, PS5-only games, since they have a mandate from Sony to keep making system seller games.

Just a guess. I think it makes sense from a financial standpoint.

I am curious as to whay you mean by the bolded. Do you know what features devs are not using?

Stuff like ID buffer, geometry rendering and rapid packed math.

 

[LordOfChaos]

The CPU performance of the PS4 Pro is so similar to the PS4, that if that was the situation I can't see most devs not just stringing the PS4 along too. Most of what the PS4 Pro does is just what the PS4 does at higher resolution, with a few more touchups if there's power to spare.


It would also bound the PS5 to games that were made with ~6.5GB in mind.

 

[Sosokrates]

I think a PS5 Pro makes more sense 3 years after PS5, keeping ASP’s high and providing users with that generation’s issues all ironed out.

The problem with mid gen refreshes is that its means peiple have to sell and upgrade, where having the 2 options at launch gives customers a choice.

 

[Hellshy.]

Stuff like ID buffer, geometry rendering and rapid packed math.

What are some of the benefits that those offer? I have heard of some but not sure if I have heard rapid packed math mentioned before .

 

[StreetDisciple]

That would never happen.

The “physical media is dying” people are wrong. There will always be disc drives

I was just thinking about this today while looking at my DVD case. The thought of having physical media is just comforting to me.

 

[Atrus]

My bet is for November 2020 to March 2021.
It's in line with the past 6-7 year cycle, fits for the Christmas and Holiday periods and is just after the 2020 Summer Olympics in Japan.

Sony is already pushing for 8K as part of the Olympic campaign so aligning a PS5 launch with the same concept would be a no brainer, especially as another avenue to push 8K.

2018 has a number of high profile titles so teasing a successor would detract from them while 2019 doesn't have much known for now.
We'd see end cycle games like a new DMC maybe so it's safer to tease us for a 2020 launch and then E3 2020 for the real thing.

 

[GTR R35_Supra RZ]

Gonna need to see some receipts on this, I won't hold my breath though.

Me too, very curious to see that hidden sauce they holding out for 2018 gms...receipts pwease.

 

[TheSpecialOne]

The PS5 is coming in late 2019 and it's easy to understand why this is. The rest of the first party studios will drop their load between 2018 and march 2019. Games expected to drop in that time period are:
-Spiderman
-God Of War
-Detriot
-Last of Us 2(March 2019)

Games like Ghosts of Tsushima and Death Stranding are early ps5 games in my opinion. 2019- 2021 will be the usual cross gen period with next gen only games dropping in late 2020, early 2021.

Anything less than 12TF and neither sony nor microsoft should even bother. I'm also expecting the ps5 to be more expensive than $399. Since they're likely launching first, I'd expect to see the initial price to be $499 and drop when the next xbox launches. Why, it's not because of the chip but the storage space required for the console. HDD will likely have to be at minimum a 2TB drive due to the drastic increase in data next gen.

What I expect:

-RX Vega 64 variant on the 7nm FinFET with improvements to power consumption
-8 Core Ryzen CPU(Ryzen Mobile also a possiblity) @ ~ 3.0ghz
-2 TB sshd
-New Blu Ray format(>100GB discs) or Blu Ray XL
-HDMI 2.1 to support dynamic HDR
-FreeSync Support
-16 GB of GDDR5x/GDDR6/HBM2 and 4 GB of DDR4 System Ram
-Between 200-250 watt box.

 

[Chris_Rivera]

Not familiar with this dude, but he seems to say the most obvious things. The neogaf thread titles for him are a long string of hilariously vague guesses. Apparently his fans think he’s some kind of prophet, which confuses me.

 

[rokkerkory]

I am hoping its 2020 so my mileage will go further

 

[Sosokrates]

The PS5 is coming in late 2019 and it's easy to understand why this is. The rest of the first party studios will drop their load between 2018 and march 2019. Games expected to drop in that time period are:
-Spiderman
-God Of War
-Detriot
-Last of Us 2(March 2019)

Games like Ghosts of Tsushima and Death Stranding are early ps5 games in my opinion. 2019- 2021 will be the usual cross gen period with next gen only games dropping in late 2020, early 2021.

Anything less than 12TF and neither sony nor microsoft should even bother. I'm also expecting the ps5 to be more expensive than $399. Since they're likely launching first, I'd expect to see the initial price to be $499 and drop when the next xbox launches. Why, it's not because of the chip but the storage space required for the console. HDD will likely have to be at minimum a 2TB drive due to the drastic increase in data next gen.

What I expect:

-RX Vega 64 variant on the 7nm FinFET with improvements to power consumption
-8 Core Ryzen CPU(Ryzen Mobile also a possiblity) @ ~ 3.0ghz
-2 TB sshd
-New Blu Ray format(>100GB discs) or Blu Ray XL
-HDMI 2.1 to support dynamic HDR
-FreeSync Support
-16 GB of GDDR5x/GDDR6/HBM2 and 4 GB of DDR4 System Ram
-Between 200-250 watt box.

I think 12tflops will happen for consoles in 2020.

In 2014 the best amd card was a 290x coming in at about 6tflops, 3 years later you can now get a mid range card the rx580 which is the same power.
So using that logic the best current amd card the vega 64 coming in at 12tflops, so you will be able to get 12tflops in a mid range amd card in 2020.

 

[AmyS]

What I expect:

-RX Vega 64 variant on the 7nm FinFET with improvements to power consumption

PS5 will use Navi.

 

[TLZ]

I am hoping its 2020 so my mileage will go further

Same here.

And the numbering is just easier to say and remember, 20 20

E3 2020 PS CEO: "PS5 coming later this year Nov 2020 at 20 TFLOPS!!"

(Loud music plays) *Boom-chika-boom-chika-boom-boom-boom*

*People fainting*

 

[BreakAtmo]

The PS5 is coming in late 2019 and it's easy to understand why this is. The rest of the first party studios will drop their load between 2018 and march 2019. Games expected to drop in that time period are:
-Spiderman
-God Of War
-Detriot
-Last of Us 2(March 2019)

Games like Ghosts of Tsushima and Death Stranding are early ps5 games in my opinion. 2019- 2021 will be the usual cross gen period with next gen only games dropping in late 2020, early 2021.

Anything less than 12TF and neither sony nor microsoft should even bother. I'm also expecting the ps5 to be more expensive than $399. Since they're likely launching first, I'd expect to see the initial price to be $499 and drop when the next xbox launches. Why, it's not because of the chip but the storage space required for the console. HDD will likely have to be at minimum a 2TB drive due to the drastic increase in data next gen.

What I expect:

-RX Vega 64 variant on the 7nm FinFET with improvements to power consumption
-8 Core Ryzen CPU(Ryzen Mobile also a possiblity) @ ~ 3.0ghz
-2 TB sshd
-New Blu Ray format(>100GB discs) or Blu Ray XL
-HDMI 2.1 to support dynamic HDR
-FreeSync Support
-16 GB of GDDR5x/GDDR6/HBM2 and 4 GB of DDR4 System Ram
-Between 200-250 watt box.

Mostly seems likely, apart from the bolded. I think they may want games to be built around the consistency and speed of a true SSD. LIkely a 256-960GB one combined with a HDD for extra storage (and OS software that makes moving games back and forth very simple and easy) - or they might just add more USB ports and let people use external drives, saving space. And I strongly doubt they'll ever do split RAM again. It's never a good idea. Also, 16GB is way too low. Every gen beforehand has multiplied RAM by 8-16x. It'll have at least 32GB, if not 64.

 

[Sosokrates]

Same here.

And the numbering is just easier to say and remember, 20 20

E3 2020 PS CEO: "PS5 coming later this year Nov 2020 at 20 TFLOPS!!"

(Loud music plays) *Boom-chika-boom-chika-boom-boom-boom*

*People fainting*

Unless there some breakthrough in gpu tech that enables AMD to increase performance at a much faster rate of progression, 20tflops wont happen in console. If you look at the rate of progression of AMD GPU's for the past 5 years we can roughly extrapolate that AMD flagship GPU'S will be 18-20tflops in 2020

 

[TLZ]

Unless there some breakthrough in gpu tech that enables AMD to increase performance at a much faster rate of progression, 20tflops wont happen in console. If you look at the rate of progression of AMD GPU's for the past 5 years we can roughly extrapolate that AMD flagship GPU'S will be 18-20tflops in 2020

Well, I wasn't being serious, but I wouldn't say no of course.

What's AMD flagship TF now?

 

[Panajev2001a]

Gonna need to see some receipts on this, I won't hold my breath though.

Receipts that RPM (double rate processing with FP16 ops essentially) was not part of the original GPU, reasons why modifying a Polaris based core rather than shrinking the older GPU to a new manufacturing node AND add Polaris and more features?

“Additionally, we've added in a number of AMD roadmap features and a few custom features. Some of these give us better efficiency when rendering for high-resolution displays. We also have support for more efficient rendering for PlayStation VR.”

Among those “roadmap” features (features slated to come to AMD’s own discrete GPU chipsets in the future) are things like delta color compression, or DCC.

“DCC allows for inflight compression of the data heading towards frame buffers and render targets, which results in the reduction of the bandwidth used to access them,” said Cerny. “Since our GPU power has increased more than our bandwidth, this has the potential to be extremely helpful.”

There’s also a primitive discard accelerator which “improves the efficiency with which triangles that are too small to affect the rendering are removed from the pipeline” and a work distributor, something Cerny says is critical once your GPU gets to a certain size because it functions as “a centralized brain in the GPU that intelligently distributes and load-balances the geometry being rendered.”

“The work distributor in PS4 Pro is very advanced,” he claimed. “Not only does it have the fairly dramatic tesselation improvements from Polaris [AMD’s GPU architecture], it also has some post-Polaris functionality that accelerates rendering of scenes with very small objects. “

But Cerny seemed more excited about another one of these “post-Polaris” features that the PS4 Pro has: a significant improvement in the way it handles 16-bit variables like half-floats.

With the PS4 Pro, said Cerny, “it's possible to perform two 16-bit operations at the same time, instead of one 32-bit operation. In other words, with full floats, PS4 Pro has 4.2 teraflops of computational power. With half floats, it now has double that -- which is to say, 8.4 teraflops of computational power. As I'm sure you understand, this has the potential to radically increase the performance of games.”

Receipts on Games not using all the Pro features? Beside some common sense (market size, Games shipping without patch, long time to patch and small improvements, etc...), tons of pro patches games going for a purely clock * CU performance improvement percentage on their Pro patches (delivering modest, not even employing CBR, resolution gains only and light smoothing of framerate [thank you CPU upclock]). The rest take it on faithless most of us buy new phones every year and expect all software developers to fully optimise for them and extract all the performance for a tiny amount of user base and with software that has to run on a huge variety of models...

 

[Panajev2001a]

Next-gen games will use 2020 laptop architecture (aka Ryzen Mobile) as a baseline though.


3rd parties = they will keep making PS4 games for another 2-3 years (until 2022-2023) and Sony will offer the option of "PS5 patches", which should allow the same games to run up to 4k and 60 fps.

1st parties = they will only make next-gen, PS5-only games, since they have a mandate from Sony to keep making system seller games.

Just a guess. I think it makes sense from a financial standpoint.

Sure, that would take care of disc games too, but I think it would hold developers back from having an incentive to make PS5 only games which is a huge loss for me :/...

 

[Panajev2001a]

Me too, very curious to see that hidden sauce they holding out for 2018 gms...receipts pwease.

There is no secret sauce, nothing that would make it stronger than Xbox One X (number of ROP’s may be the only thing, but it is minor in the grand scheme of things), but nice try framing it like that. Even the bits that could get it closer are bits that developers will not be using: small user base, cost of taking advantage of them properly is thus assumed not being worth the returns, etc...

Iterative HW refreshes are how Apple keeps selling tons of new highly priced HW they make huge profits on instead of driving the cost down investing on manufacturing improvements and hoping that volume can balance quite thin profit margins (that improve with each redesign, see PS3 redesigns)... naturally the games industry thinks they can copy that too and make money just like Apple (hint: this kind of me too approach rarely ever works).

Some big publishers also love iterative consoles because they help establish consolidated ever growing monopolies and the generation jumps provide opportunity for market competition and large giants hate that .

Some consumers love iterative consoles / HW because they feel better by knowing they just bought new faster HW (regardless of how it is used).

 

[Panajev2001a]

The problem with mid gen refreshes is that its means peiple have to sell and upgrade, where having the 2 options at launch gives customers a choice.

It also means that users may associate the priciest SKU with the real price of PS5... see PS3 20 GB and 60 GB SKU’s at launch.

 

[llien]

Isn't Freesync already supported by current gen consoles? (at least by the upcoming xbox)

What's AMD flagship TF now?

12.6 (Vega 64)

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

I think 12tflops will happen for consoles in 2020.

In 2014 the best amd card was a 290x coming in at about 6tflops, 3 years later you can now get a mid range card the rx580 which is the same power.
So using that logic the best current amd card the vega 64 coming in at 12tflops, so you will be able to get 12tflops in a mid range amd card in 2020.

But then Sony went for 1.84TF in PS4 when the top card from AMD in late 2011 was the 3.8TF HD 7970. For PS5 there will likely be the 7nm node shrink so that will help but diminishing returns still will cut into raw paper numbers.

I just can't see how even with a node shrink it is feasible to have at least a Vega 64 level of power currently at 484 mm2 plus 2X Ryzen CCX's at 88 mm2 plus any customization's all rolled into a APU in 2019/20.

PS4 took a 212 mm2 GPU and a very small at the time CPU and end up at 350 mm2 albeit on the same 28nm (but mature) node.

The same goes for those expected 32GB plus RAM. It has been said multiple times this isn't happening and isn't needed apart from anything else.

 

[Klik]

I cant believe people actually think ps5 is gonna be 8k while 4k tv arent even standard as of now (there are much more 1080p tv's out there than are 4k tv's and the price is still on the high side),as of now only top flagship gpu can run AAA 4k games.In 3years mid range cards will probably be able to run 4k games in medium-high settings while top flagship card on ultra 60fps.So in 3 years 4k will become mainstream and most people would be able to afford it without breaking huge budget. And there you are talking about 8k..You would need something like gtx 4080ti to run in 8k (maybe) for 5% of people who are even using 8k tv's.

 

[TLZ]

12.6 (Vega 64)

That's good news. 3 years from now this should be accessible.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

I guess we can't deduce much or anything at all from this but Guerrilla were informed about PS4 in early 2011 so a fall 2019 PS5 could happen if rumours/inside info are reaching gaming forums in mid 2017.

 

[Brock2621]

Id guess Sony will have a private press event to announce it (read: not e3) in 2019 with a November release.

I’m only arguing this because I think they will start to feel pressure from x box one x exclusives beating them in visual fidelity and “wow” for 2 e3’s when the press actually start to care about games and they read article after article saying Xbox games look more impressive. Especially when 3rd parties start using x box’s to show off their games on all the trailers (“Actual Gameplay On An X Box One X”).

They have to balance mitigating leaks but getting dev kits out to get release games on the docket.

I just hope the massive success Sony has experienced doesn’t cause them to lose sight of their audience and become too conceited like they did with ps3. They need to stay consumer friendly and focused, always enabling policies that are best for their fans and their developers AND indies.

4k 60 will be their goal and I think new lighting engines and 4k textures will be prioritized. I’d bet checkerboarding will still be quite common though on visually intensive games.

Should be interesting and exciting. I’ve got a PS4 Pro but not a 4k tv yet. Going to try and pick up an LG OLED in the next 6 weeks or so; I’ll be ready whenever it is released though. 👍🏻

 

[Shin]

Id guess Sony will have a private press event to announce it (read: not e3) in 2019 with a November release.

I'm only arguing this because I think they will start to feel pressure from x box one x exclusives beating them in visual fidelity and ”wow" for 2 e3's when the press actually start to care about games and they read article after article saying Xbox games look more impressive.

Non-issue XBOX (original) was stronger than PS2 and the latter outsold it and became the best selling console.
They'll stay the course until they find the time is right to release their next console, though I think it will be the same year if not 1 year earlier than the next XBOX.

 

[neptunes]

If Sony really wanted, they could release a super cheap PS4 with no disc drive and no HDD (users would have to install their own). Granted it could only be aimed at enthusiasts, but I wonder how cheap said SKU could be. $150?

 

[Brock2621]

Non-issue XBOX (original) was stronger than PS2 and the latter outsold it and became the best selling console.
They'll stay the course until they find the time is right to release their next console, though I think it will be the same year if not 1 year earlier than the next XBOX.

Yeah I can see this and do agree it didn’t matter. Do you think they’d be comfortable going back to not being the default demo console now that they’ve had a taste of being the best for 3 years running?

 

[Toe-Knee]

Yeah I can see this and do agree it didn’t matter. Do you think they’d be comfortable going back to not being the default demo console now that they’ve had a taste of being the best for 3 years running?

They're still going to be the default as they will still get the majority of the marketing deals having the biggest install base.

The Xbox one x would have to sell 30-40 million consoles to become the default.

 

[DigSCCP]

Id guess Sony will have a private press event to announce it (read: not e3) in 2019 with a November release.

I’m only arguing this because I think they will start to feel pressure from x box one x exclusives beating them in visual fidelity and “wow” for 2 e3’s when the press actually start to care about games and they read article after article saying Xbox games look more impressive. Especially when 3rd parties start using x box’s to show off their games on all the trailers (“Actual Gameplay On An X Box One X”).

They have to balance mitigating leaks but getting dev kits outs to get release games on the docket.

I just hope the massive success Sony has experienced doesn’t cause them to lose sight of their audience and become too conceited like they did with ps3. They need to stay consumer friendly and focused, always enabling policies that are best for their fans and their developers AND indies.

4k 60 will be their goal and I think new lighting engines and 4k textures will be prioritized. I’d bet checkerboarding will still be quite common though on visually intensive games.

Should be interesting and exciting. I’ve got a PS4 Pro but not a 4k tv yet. Going to try and pick up an LG OLED in the next 6 weeks or so; I’ll be ready whenever it is released though. 👍🏻

I cant see this hapening while MS still uses Xbox One S as base for development.
The whole idea of better multiplats is cool.
But MS has nothing to compete agaisnt God of War, Detroit, TLOU 2, Death Stranding and Ghost of Tsushima visually speaking.
And no, no way Sony will seek for 60 FPS.
They will aim for a machine strong enough to make X a last gen machine, pushing visual and native 4k. All of this in a feasible price that dont get into ~500US range.
Wich means 2020...at least.

 

[Pasha]

That would never happen.

The “physical media is dying” people are wrong. There will always be disc drives

Yeah that might be, but couldn't they just sell the disk drives separately?
Like hey here's a cheaper console without a disk drive so you can buy digital, and just in case you need a disk, here's an external disk drive.

 

[vpance]

It also means that users may associate the priciest SKU with the real price of PS5... see PS3 20 GB and 60 GB SKU’s at launch.

Dual SKUs ain't happening due to that, and they probably want to avoid the headaches of splitting allocations in the chance of yield issues.

 

[EventHorizon]

I cant see this hapening while MS still uses Xbox One S as base for development.
The whole idea of better multiplats is cool.
But MS has nothing to compete agaisnt God of War, Detroit, TLOU 2, Death Stranding and Ghost of Tsushima visually speaking.
And no, no way Sony will seek for 60 FPS.
They will aim for a machine strong enough to make X a last gen machine, pushing visual and native 4k. All of this in a feasible price that dont get into ~500US range.
Wich means 2020...at least.

I agree with all of that except the insistence that the PS5 would release in 2020 at the earliest. I think the CPU not the GPU will be the biggest improvement with the next gen consoles, and significantly beating current console CPU power won't be that difficult. Better CPUs would give better world simulation and more/better mob AI to the static open world games we are currently getting. I also think that visuals are reaching significant diminishing returns. Holding off a console from 2019 to 2020 just to improve visuals isn't going to help much.

Instead I think CPU power and memory size/bandwidth will mark the basis of a new console generation. There will of course be graphical improvements, but I don't think a PS5 will go significantly beyond what the XB1 X can do. Then around 3 years after the PS5 release, a more GPU based half-gen console will be offered up to push the graphics even more. Because GPU power is more scalable than CPU, I think consoles will migrate to this tick-tock CPU generational followed by GPU half-gen upgrade based strategy.

Yeah that might be, but couldn't they just sell the disk drives separately?
Like hey here's a cheaper console without a disk drive so you can buy digital, and just in case you need a disk, here's an external disk drive.

At first I read that as hard drive and was like ??? Now that I realize you mean optical drive I can see your point. However, I don't think the exclusion of an optical drive would save enough money to justify a separate SKU.

Hmm...now that I think about that a bit more, I'm flip flopping again.

I could see two SKUs, but for the same price. One SKU would be a typical console with an optical drive. The other would be an all digital version that used the savings from omitting the optical drive to include a larger internal hard drive. The customer confusion that would bring might not be worth it, but I think it is at least worth Sony researching.

 

[Amerzel]

The problem with mid gen refreshes is that its means peiple have to sell and upgrade, where having the 2 options at launch gives customers a choice.

In your ideal realistic scenario what would they be choosing between? Who is your target customer for the base model and who is your target customer for the pro model?

 

[Megatron]

I could see a 50/50 split for 2019 or 2020. A lot of it will depend more on how the hardware they want is developing versus the actual market conditions. You can't start making a console a year before you ship it.


I don't think the PS4 can sustain to 2025.

I think more will depend on what Microsoft does. If they jump in at 2019, Sony may not be willing to spot them a year head start.

Additionally, if PS4 sales are still strong, why move on? May as well milk this gen as long as possible.

 

[Brock2621]

Yeah that might be, but couldn't they just sell the disk drives separately?
Like hey here's a cheaper console without a disk drive so you can buy digital, and just in case you need a disk, here's an external disk drive.

I do think physical media is dying, but at the same time, I just saw Xbox One X review stating new games with 4k texture assets will be clocking in around 80gb-90gb which would completely destroy internet caps. I think we will have one more generation of disc availability, especially with big box lobbying to keep it as well. BUT I think the sales trends will be apparent with digital outpacing physical by a large sum by the end of next generation.

 

[Sosokrates]

That's good news. 3 years from now this should be accessible.

Yes I believe this to.

 

[Sosokrates]

That's good news. 3 years from now this should be accessible.

Yes I believe this to.

In your ideal realistic scenario what would they be choosing between? Who is your target customer for the base model and who is your target customer for the pro model?

Casuals for the base and hardcore for the pro.

I don't think it will happen like that though, sony will still probably release a pro in 2023 because its more profitable.

I wont be doing a next refresh though because the only reason I'm doing it this gen is because my TV broke and I bought a 4K TV and I didn't want to waste its potential by just using the 1080p console

 

[EventHorizon]

I think more will depend on what Microsoft does. If they jump in at 2019, Sony may not be willing to spot them a year head start.

Additionally, if PS4 sales are still strong, why move on? May as well milk this gen as long as possible.

With Microsoft just now releasing the XB1 X, I don't see how they can release a new console in 2019. I know people are saying that consoles are moving towards a phone release type schedule, but phones sell A LOT more units than consoles. Also phones make money on their initial sales while consoles make their money on game royalties and premium subscriptions. All that allows mobile phones to quickly recoup development costs while consoles can't.

Because of this, there is little incentive or business model for console companies to release more frequently. I'd say 3 years works because Sony did it with the Pro. Going for less than that seems a stretch.

Sony would want to release in 2019 to maintain their advantage. A 2019 release would let them lock in a good percent of their current customers without competition from Microsoft. Waiting only gives them a higher likelihood of direct competition.

Sony lost market share with the PS3 generation, and gain it back with the PS4. I think they've learned their lesson that console customers can't be taken for granted from generation to generation. They will switch if given a better option. The Pro's release 3 years after the PS4 proves Sony knows it must constantly fight to keep their customers happy.

 

[Iced Arcade]

I still think it's a 10 year cycle. I don't really see why Sony would be in need of pulling the trigger in the next year or 2. They benefit to much from consoles with a large user base.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

I still think it's a 10 year cycle. I don't really see why Sony would be in need of pulling the trigger in the next year or 2. They benefit to much from consoles with a large user base.

The 10 year Sony cycle is separate from the cycle of console releases. All Sony consoles have had a 10 year cycle I think? PS3 only stopped being made in May this year.

Apart from the uncertainty of when 7nm is ready (and if Sony are planning to use it) then for me a 6 year gen is perfect. Goldilocks length and a late 2019 PS5 would be a perfect celebration of PlayStation's 25th birthday.

 

[goonergaz]

With Microsoft just now releasing the XB1 X, I don't see how they can release a new console in 2019.

I have said a few times I think MS are purposefully moving 'out of sync' with Sony. I can't see how MS can release a £450 console in 2017 then another until at least 2020 but I suspect 2021 or even 2022.

Like Nintendo have given up on going toe to toe (by changing to a different style of console experience) MS & Sony would likely both benefit from having no competition at launch...it means both companies can boast the most powerful machine for a couple years and launch exclusively.

I feel whilst XBOX lacks the CPU to make a true next gen machine (let's face it, with a reasonable CPU upgrade that machine is almost making a 'next gen' step)...it's powerful enough to last longer than Pro.

I really think we might see 2 years between launches with a refresh every 4 years;

2017 XBOX
2019 PS5
2021 XBNext
2023 PS5Pro

Or something like that.

 

[PsyChometer]

A tease in 2019 is more likely which will possibly lead to a more concrete launch date probably a year after or in the same year. I bet my ass that it would be 2019. And no, I don't agree with the PS4 Pro being the "default" PS4 because there's no massive advantage that the Pro has over the PS4 unless its hardware is like the X. So, no. Sony's not going to just forget the huge install-base that the original PS4 has.

 

[Panajev2001a]

A tease in 2019 is more likely which will possibly lead to a more concrete launch date probably a year after or in the same year. I bet my ass that it would be 2019. And no, I don't agree with the PS4 Pro being the "default" PS4 because there's no massive advantage that the Pro has over the PS4 unless its hardware is like the X. So, no. Sony's not going to just forget the huge install-base that the original PS4 has.

PS4 Pro is not as fast as Xbox One X, but it is over 2x as fast GPU wise and has a host of quite inmportant enhancements over it (acceleration of checkerboarded rendering and 2x the processing speed of FP16 data) that further enhance that speed. In all intents and purposes it is a big jump over PS4, but like Xbox One X and Xbox One the CPU improvements is not nearly enough for a new generation.

 

[EventHorizon]

I have said a few times I think MS are purposefully moving 'out of sync' with Sony. I can't see how MS can release a £450 console in 2017 then another until at least 2020 but I suspect 2021 or even 2022.

Like Nintendo have given up on going toe to toe (by changing to a different style of console experience) MS & Sony would likely both benefit from having no competition at launch...it means both companies can boast the most powerful machine for a couple years and launch exclusively.

I feel whilst XBOX lacks the CPU to make a true next gen machine (let's face it, with a reasonable CPU upgrade that machine is almost making a 'next gen' step)...it's powerful enough to last longer than Pro.

I really think we might see 2 years between launches with a refresh every 4 years;

2017 XBOX
2019 PS5
2021 XBNext
2023 PS5Pro

Or something like that.

I think Microsoft was caught flat footed with the release of the Pro and poor reception of the base XB1. I don't think they intended for there to be an X release (although they should have) which is why they were a year behind. Now they are trying to play catch up. I don't think Microsoft wants to give Sony a head start, but because they just released the X, they can't release a console again in 2019. However...I think there is a huge loophole in that analysis.

I think Microsoft will release some other self contained computing product that will be fully compatible with Xbox family games. Imagine a Microsoft version of the Steam Machine except that it'd be based on Windows 10 and could play Windows and Xbox games. It'd be marketed and priced as a computer not a console even though it'd work in that role too. I can see Microsoft releasing such a computer/console in 2019 to try to steal the thunder from the PS5. Then Microsoft would follow up in 2020 with a true console release that had just enough improvements over the PS5 to overshadow it.

So here is my crazy far out prediction:

2017: XB1 X
2019: PS5 | MS Machine
2020: XBNext
2022: PS5 Pro | MS Machine 1.5
2023: XBNext X
​

 

[PsyChometer]

PS4 Pro is not as fast as Xbox One X, but it is over 2x as fast GPU wise and has a host of quite inmportant enhancements over it (acceleration of checkerboarded rendering and 2x the processing speed of FP16 data) that further enhance that speed. In all intents and purposes it is a big jump over PS4, but like Xbox One X and Xbox One the CPU improvements is not nearly enough for a new generation.

It's only a 43.9% increase of GPU power. If you see more comparisons between the standard PS4 version to the PS4 Pro, there are no significant advantages on the PS4 Pro but just additional HDR features.

I consider the PS4 Pro as a minor upgrade of the PS4.

I don't think PS4 is going away soon, and Sony's well grounded with their decision in their releasing games on the same family tree policy.

 

[goonergaz]

I think Microsoft was caught flat footed with the release of the Pro and poor reception of the base XB1. I don't think they intended for there to be an X release (although they should have) which is why they were a year behind. Now they are trying to play catch up. I don't think Microsoft wants to give Sony a head start, but because they just released the X, they can't release a console again in 2019. However...I think there is a huge loophole in that analysis.

I think Microsoft will release some other self contained computing product that will be fully compatible with Xbox family games. Imagine a Microsoft version of the Steam Machine except that it'd be based on Windows 10 and could play Windows and Xbox games. It'd be marketed and priced as a computer not a console even though it'd work in that role too. I can see Microsoft releasing such a computer/console in 2019 to try to steal the thunder from the PS5. Then Microsoft would follow up in 2020 with a true console release that had just enough improvements over the PS5 to overshadow it.

So here is my crazy far out prediction:

2017: XB1 X
2019: PS5 | MS Machine
2020: XBNext
2022: PS5 Pro | MS Machine 1.5
2023: XBNext X
​

I always wanted the X to play PC games - if they released a machine that did that I'd get out of the PC gaming scene