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[DaBargainHunta]

Some loaded stuff about 3DS vs. Apple too...

Pachter: PSP2 will be “dead on arrival”

December 6th, 2010 @ 07:38
By Joe Anderson


Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter has said he thinks the handheld market is “in trouble,” and thinks PSP2 “is going to be dead on arrival.”

Speaking on the latest episode of his Pach Attack show, the analyst said he feels that the handheld market is reaching saturation point.

“We’re way approaching saturation on the handheld market,” he said.

“We’re starting to see DS hardware sales crack, I think the big woody of the iPod Touch is cutting into the handheld market, I think the PSP is dead on arrival and I think the PSP2 is going to be dead on arrival.”

“It looks to me like young kids are just as happy playing with an iPod Touch or a Nano. The Touch is cool, it plays games, plays music, they’re going to put a camera in it and you’re going to get all kinds of cool stuff.”

Patcher did have some positive words to say about Nintendo’s forthcoming 3DS. However, he feels after an initial spike, sales will dip handing the initiative back to Apple.

“The 3DS will prolong the handheld market for the game manufacturers, but ultimately, I think handhelds are in trouble. I really think as the iPod Touch gets more and more powerful, you’re going to see a lot of free games over there.

“What’s the difference if you play Tetris on an iPod Touch or on a DS? Well, you pay a buck on the iPod Touch, you pay $20 on the DS. Parents prefer $1 or free software, I think the iPod Touch is going to sell really, really well. So, after the 3DS has had its little rush I think the handhelds will continue to decline.”

Nintendo is to release 3DS in Europe and the US in March next year, while PSP2 is expected to arrive near the end of next year.

http://www.vg247.com/2010/12/06/pachter-psp2-will-be-dead-on-arrival/

 

[tedtropy]

These kids and their Tetris vidja' games.

 

[rainking187]

Considering how often he's wrong I'm not worried about the PSP2 at all.

 

[Door2Dawn]

Seeing patchers name gave me a sudden urge to take a shit.

And thats what Patcher is like to me, as a big shit.

 

[scoobs]

I think it'll sell like hotcakes in japan but I've been having the same feelings he has about handhelds for years now... if you have a smart phone what is the point of them? You can play better games on them yes but when do u have time to play those games all the way through? Most handheld games I play are like angrybirds.. and i play for about 5 minutes.

 

[Kuran]

Saturation on the handheld market? Is he fucking kidding?

Besides 3DS there is nothing else but CELLPHONES coming out next year. PSP2 will be a dedicated gaming handheld, setting itself apart by delivering REAL CONTROLS and (most likely) a substantial graphics boost over 3DS.

 

[theBishop]

If Sony can dedicate themselves to supporting PSP2 with internally-developed software the "crowded handheld market" doesn't matter. If not, then it's probably doa. Never did get a Team Ico game on PSP...

 

[StuBurns]

The NDS sales are cracking? It's only sold like 140 million units, it is fully saturated, of course it's not going to carry on selling great, there are practically more units out there than there are gamers.

 

[Kuran]

I think it'll sell like hotcakes in japan but I've been having the same feelings he has about handhelds for years now... if you have a smart phone what is the point of them? You can play better games on them yes but when do u have time to play those games all the way through? Most handheld games I play are like angrybirds.. and i play for about 5 minutes.

Some people actually like to play real games on handhelds, not just pass the time on their iPhone for 2 minutes playing some shallow experience.

Perfect example: Monster Hunter, and on the other end of the spectrum, Pokemon.

 

[Yeef]

This is from the most recent episode of Bonus Round. It's hardly newsworthy.

 

[D4Danger]

I thought the new PSP was going to be an android phone?

 

[MightyKAC]

I really don't think that Mike's taking into account this little Island Nation called Japan.

 

[Zombie James]

nvm

 

[I NEED SCISSORS]

Just when I thought Pachter couldn't get any more wrong... he goes and says something completely right. In the face of the 3DS and iOS devices, it's doomed. The former is coming from the dominatrix of the handheld arena, and the latter is the definition of mass market penetration. Both will be here long before PSP2 does. It doesn't stand a chance except for the niche graphics horse demographic (assuming that is its target audience, which it probably will be).

 

[∀ Narayan]

No one likes hearing anything from this guy for good reasons, and yet someone always posts whatever he says.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Depends on how good the games are, if it has 3D( and if it doesn't why not or how that plays into it), how powerful the system is, and if Sony finds a good marketing strategy.

 

[fallagin]

PSP 2 Success confirmed

 

[Mush]

I know I've asked this question before, but do you really see 10 year olds working around playing games on cellphones and iPods in the US? The image of that seems ridiculous.

 

[evilromero]

I think he's on to something regarding Apple/Android cutting into the DS market. There's no doubt people would rather pay $2 for Tetris then $30 on the DS. Tetris is Tetris. Look at Angry Birds. That game may cost $30 at retail on the 3DS with some bloated content to account for the price. But people just want the barebones experience for a fraction of the price.

 

[Raistlin]

I think the PSP is dead on arrival and I think the PSP2 is going to be dead on arrival.

WTF huh? Sense, u make none.

Spoiler

I think his overall point may be correct though, as much as that sucks. Maybe not DOA, but I'm not expecting impressive sales. SE has the right idea with the Android phone concept, the implementation is just a clusterfuck

 

[KingJ2002]

i disagree... patcher is letting the angry birds / words with friends phenomenon fool him.

PSP2 will be fine... after all the opposite can be said about the iPhone where it has yet to sell a game worth 30-40 bucks. I dont see games with the level of detail like a pokemon being made on the system. rather its an endless supply of shovelware with a full standouts that's not worth being shipped to retail as a stand alone title.

Nintendo and Sony can easily remedy this by just expanding their digital stores to offer 99 cent experiences for their handhelds.

it solves the problem of overpriced experiences like tetris being 30 bucks and also gives gamers the option for quick arcade fun or 30+ hr experiences.

 

[Evolved1]

Seeing patchers name gave me a sudden urge to take a shit.

And thats what Patcher is like to me, as a big shit.

This one time I said something negative about patcher in a "patcher says something dumb again" thread and I was hit with a month ban for "insulting another neogaf user".

Tread carefully.

 

[OnimaruXLR]

This is just my gaming ass opinion as a gaming ass gamer, but I've never once considered the iWhatsis to be a competitor to the DS or PSP. Maybe an indirect competitor for overall time, like how comic books compete with movies compete with videogames...

But I can't play Mario on an iThing, or anything that comes close. Or a proper fighting game. Or a good deep ass strategy RPG.

So when people say Apple and Nintendo/Sony are in the same market, it kinda strikes me as the same thing as saying McDonalds and Red Lobster are in the same market. Or like, Bennigans, if you don't like seafood. Or maybe Longhorn Steakhouse.

 

[Piggus]

lol

I have some great games on my iPhone but it doesn't even come close to being a replacement for a dedicated handheld. That said, the pricing of iPhone games is awesome and I don't look forward to $30 -$40 games on the PSP2.

 

[SeanR1221]

I think he makes a lot of good points.

 

[Kuran]

Depends on how good the games are, if it has 3D( and if it doesn't why not or how that plays into it), how powerful the system is, and if Sony finds a good marketing strategy.

Hello marketing strategy! Proper resolution screen, graphics that improve on the PSP's (still impressive) capabilities, PS2 ports (if they are smart) and TWO FUCKING STICKS!

Couple that with some SCEI/SCEJ developer support (woo Siren, Demon's Souls, Team ICO, Polyphony, Bend, Uncharted Portable, ... )

That's an easy sales pitch.

We should all want Sony to make the right decisions with PSP2, because it's in our best interest to have healthy competition in this market. If Sony gives up now, and Nintendo is the only one offering a gaming focussed handheld... well, our kids will probably be gaming on cellphones exclusively when they grow up. Pew pew pressing virtual buttons on shitty touch-screens.

Gaming on iDevices is bullshit.

 

[GCX]

..after 3DS has had its little rush I think the handhelds will continue to decline.”

Continue? When exactly did it begin?

 

[Jonnyram]

If PSP2 can connect to a TV and output 720p, it stands level with a console, so I don't think anyone can call it dead on arrival. I'm assuming that's not a huge assumption to make at this stage.

 

[Zoe]

Of course a Touch would be more successful, and the average person would probably chose a quick app over a game cartridge. But that doesn't mean there won't be a place for the 3DS and the PSP2. They appeal to a different market (especially PSP2).

 

[FoneBone]

Oh, it's just more "iOS will destroy dedicated handhelds" nonsense.

 

[xbhaskarx]

Sony better listen to Pachter, otherwise they are betraying their investors...

 

[Degen]

If it's well over $250, then yeah, it's dead.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

I have to agree with him on this one.

For now, anyway. 3DS seems like its destined to take over portable gaming along with Android + iDevices. I'm not sure where the market is if the PSP2 isn't very unique in some way.

 

[Anasui Kishibe]

This one time I said something negative about patcher in a "patcher says something dumb again" thread and I was hit with a month ban for "insulting another neogaf user".

Tread carefully.

Patcher is a gaffer?!

 

[MightyKAC]

As long as the PSP2 and the 3DS have an actual controller and the Iphone/Ipad doesn't Sony and Nintendo will do just fine.

 

[Kuran]

It's clear to me that this tool has no fucking interest in 'gamers', it is just money talking.

So it makes sense for him to not understand why we are not already paying monthly for the right to play COD.

And it makes sense for him to say, oh the iDevice also plays games, and they cost only 5 dollars! See? The kid has his game and its happy!

 

[Lonely1]

I think he's on to something regarding Apple/Android cutting into the DS market. There's no doubt people would rather pay $2 for Tetris then $30 on the DS. Tetris is Tetris. Look at Angry Birds. That game may cost $30 at retail on the 3DS with some bloated content to account for the price. But people just want the barebones experience for a fraction of the price.

And they can get that With DsWare/PSP minis.

 

[duckroll]

It's clear to me that this tool has no fucking interest in 'gamers', it is just
money talking.

Erm, yes? Why would he have an interest in "gamers" when his job is a financial analyst?

 

[I NEED SCISSORS]

And they can get that With DsWare/PSP minis.

Yeah because both were runaway successes.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

lol

I have some great games on my iPhone but it doesn't even come close to being a replacement for a dedicated handheld.

I agree in principle, but you miss a large part of the point here: what gaming on iDevices and Android do is help scratch the itch of mobile gaming for a lot of people. no, iOS and Android can't match a PSP2 feature-for-feature, but they have *enough* features to make people content enough with them to not necessarily seek out a dedicated mobile platform.

THAT is the problem. iOS and Android make people a little less interested in a dedicated platform. that should put the fear of God into Sony.

 

[FoneBone]

If PSP2 can connect to a TV and output 720p, it stands level with a console, so I don't think anyone can call it dead on arrival. I'm assuming that's not a huge assumption to make at this stage.

Why would Sony want to position it as a console, even partially?


Also, Pach...ter. Not Patcher.

 

[Seraphis Cain]

I find it hard to disagree with the thread title, at the very least. I really don't think the PSP2 is going to sell well. Don't get me wrong, I hope it does, and if Monster Hunter makes the jump to the PSP2 I'll definitely own one, but yeah.

 

[demigod]

Pachter is dead wrong, who the hell goes to him for analysis? The handheld only has DS and PSP. Does he really think gamers are going to flock to itouch/ipads? Publishers want money. If they have a big team they sure as hell aren't going to want to make a $1 profit on games.

 

[Evolved1]

Patcher is a gaffer?!

Don't know, don't care. Just saying what happened.

 

[Lonely1]

Yeah because both were runaway successes.

Both were late additions to old systems. They failing on the new platforms is still to be seen. Plus is not like Angrybirds and Cut the Rope are exclusive to iOS, if they can make profit from the 3DS/PSP2 they will be there.

 

[beast786]

I have to agree with him on this one.

For now, anyway. 3DS seems like its destined to take over portable gaming along with Android + iDevices. I'm not sure where the market is if the PSP2 isn't very unique in some way.

maybe you should read the OP again.

 

[Zoe]

I agree in principle, but you miss a large part of the point here: what gaming on iDevices and Android do is help scratch the itch of mobile gaming for a lot of people. no, iOS and Android can't match a PSP2 feature-for-feature, but they have *enough* features to make people content enough with them to not necessarily seek out a dedicated mobile platform.

Yes. And a person will always have their phone on them whereas a portable is more cumbersome. I don't want to add a clunky device on top of everything else I have to carry.

Whenever I'm waiting around for something, I'm perfectly content stealing my bf's iPhone and playing a few rounds of sudoku.

 

[rpmurphy]

The NDS sales are cracking? It's only sold like 140 million units, it is fully saturated, of course it's not going to carry on selling great, there are practically more units out there than there are gamers.

900k units sold on Black Friday too, right? That's not much of a crack.

 

[VOOK]

If it's well over $250, then yeah, it's dead.

This constant fixation of arbitrary price points defining the success or failure of a product always amuses me.

 

[Lonely1]

Yes. And a person will always have their phone on them whereas a portable is more cumbersome. I don't want to add a clunky device on top of everything else I have to carry.

Whenever I'm waiting around for something, I'm perfectly content stealing my bf's iPhone and playing a few rounds of sudoku.

But Pachter is talking about the iTouch. Plus the notion of convergence devices replacing everything is at odds with the raving success of the iPad.