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[Evolution_1ne]

PS3 has/had third party support. Going by game sales figures, it sure as heck isn't selling on the strength of exclusives.

then neither is the Xbox so who cares

 

[maltrain]

I think this Pachter guy is making Sony's life easier.

First, he said the next Xbox will beat PS4.

Now, he says PS Vita is dead.

And WE KNOW how that bad end his predictions...

SONY FTW!!!

 

[GeekyDad]

Not much there that isn't obvious or intelligent. I'm just thankful at least the 3DS is panning out. Wouldn't have been the end of the world if it hadn't, but I still prefer a handheld gaming device to being strapped to my couch. I loved playing on my iPhone for about a year, went back to my 3DS, and I can't bring myself to game on my phone again right now. It's the shallowest thing in the world, for the most part, when it comes to gaming.

 

[VanWinkle]

Not much there that isn't obvious or intelligent. I'm just thankful at least the 3DS is panning out. Wouldn't have been the end of the world if it hadn't, but I still prefer a handheld gaming device to being strapped to my couch. I loved playing on my iPhone for about a year, went back to my 3DS, and I can't bring myself to game on my phone again right now. It's the shallowest thing in the world, for the most part, when it comes to gaming.

Well, to be fair, the Vita situation isn't really getting WORSE. Its just in sort of a rut. Games are getting released but there's no outpouring of support. Will it get better? Who knows. I'm still loving it right now though.

 

[maltrain]

SOME GREAT PACHTER PREDICTIONS:

March 2009: This is the “last generation of consoles.” There will be no new consoles ever (or at least for a very long time) from Microsoft and Sony, though Nintendo may put out a Wii HD with more storage.

Yeah, right...

September 2010: Predicts Microsoft will soon introduce a $100 “platinum” Xbox live membership.

Yeah, right...

March 2009: Next Grand Theft Auto game will come out in 2010, outsell GTA:IV.
Jul 2009: Next GTA game to come out by 2011.
Dec 2010: Next GTA game to come out by 2012.

Great combo... XD

Feb 2010: “Project Natal” (Kinect) will cost $50. “Very surprised if it’s more than $79,” “hard to envision” at $150.

Well... 150 was... XD

September 2005: About World of Warcraft he said "I don't think there are four million people in the world who really want to play online games every month…. eventually it will come back to the mean, maybe a million subscribers."

Worst prediction ever maybe?

December 2006: He predicted "Ken Kutaragi will replace Howard Stringer as head of Sony"... "Kutaragi is the visionary, and his work on PS3 was done at launch. They need to groom him to replace Stringer".

Well, we know Stringer kept his job and... became president of Sony Corporation

May 2007: "Ultimately, we see Sony winning the console war with 36 percent of the market, with Nintendo capturing second place at 34 percent and Microsoft finishing third at 30 percent."

OK... really accurate, right?

Well... I could find a lot more, but, well... Pachter knows nothing about videogame. Period.

 

[Xenon]

The Vita is missing that one game that makes the system worth owning. Sure there are select few who already feel it has the "one" title that justifies the price tag. For me it was LBP Vita. It's just a shame the online portion of that game turned out to be broken.

As much as people praise Sony's first party development, I don't think they have anything that could carry a system, especially a portable one. The Playstation brand has always had a large number of 3rd party heavy hitters backing their systems. The Vita's sales reflect what happens when they don't have that support.

Then you have to consider the fact that Sony seems to be completely oblivious to the fact that they need to create a game designed around a their portable system. Transplanting PS3 games just isn't going to cut it.

oh yeah btw, where the %#@! is Warriors Lair Sony?

 

[Skyzard]

The Vita is missing that one game that makes the system worth owning. Sure there are select few who already feel it has the "one" title that justifies the price tag. For me it was LBP Vita. It's just a shame the online portion of that game turned out to be broken.

By broken do you mean slow to load/download? They fixed it up quite nicely, albeit quite late.

 

[VanWinkle]

The Vita is missing that one game that makes the system worth owning. Sure there are select few who already feel it has the "one" title that justifies the price tag. For me it was LBP Vita. It's just a shame the online portion of that game turned out to be broken.

As much as people praise Sony's first party development, I don't think they have anything that could carry a system, especially a portable one. The Playstation brand has always had a large number of 3rd party heavy hitters backing their systems. The Vita's sales reflect what happens when they don't have that support.

Then you have to consider the fact that Sony seems to be completely oblivious to the fact that they need to create a game designed around a their portable system. Transplanting PS3 games just isn't going to cut it.

oh yeah btw, where the %#@! is Warriors Lair Sony?

Seriously! I wanted to play that game so bad. And they should have kept the name Ruin. Warrior's Lair sounds so generic. Not that it matters now

 

[Xenon]

By broken do you mean slow to load/download? They fixed it up quite nicely, albeit quite late.

It's better, but still flaky. The big problem was trying to get connected to others players... I spent two weeks trying to get connected for the online trophies. I would go days without a single connection to anyone. My favorite error was "This player has not yet unlocked online play" So why is it trying to connect me to him/her! Sorry but LBPV online is a bad joke.

 

[maltrain]

He's way off most of the time, like analysts tend to be. Ask an economist how they feel about what guys like Pachter do, you won't get a pleasant answer. In defense of the guy, though, some of the biggest gaming nerds on the entire internet couldn't have predicted some of that stuff.

The Wii made gamers cringe when it was announced, who could have predicted that? The DS announcement was the definition of a hedged bet, remember that "third pillar" talk?

What about the PS4 announcement, clearly it's another console, but it seems kind of muted compared to the past, like this whole console business is fading a bit. Clearly it's not over but I have to wonder how long the idea of a dedicated box will stick around.

World of Warcraft's success is a freak of nature, many times larger than the other top five MMOs... combined. Saying it would settle at a million was actually putting it above the competition. You couldn't have predicted it. Blizzard couldn't have predicted it!

Xbox Platinum, it didn't happen but I guarantee there were meetings on the possibility at some point, and we're only $40 a year away from that. MS doesn't even try very hard to give you any value for the $60, they're already getting away with a lot.

Kinect's price and subsequent success (which I still find fishy) were both surprising for many here. That whole thing is a mystery to me.

Ken Kutaragi and the GTA stuff, I'll give you. I'm the opposite with GTA5, even, I'm surprised it isn't just coming out as a next gen title. With Kutaragi, that PS3 announcement price should have been a sign that things weren't going to go so well.

I can predict many things too if you ask me. And I can bet that if I make predictions every month, like he does, I'd have a lot of good ones only for common sense.

He doesn't know about videogames more than the average gamer on forums like this one...

 

[VanWinkle]

I can predict many things too if you ask me. And I can bet that if I make predictions every month, like he does, I'd have a lot of good ones only for common sense.

He doesn't know about videogames more than the average gamer on forums like this one...

Yup, and the difference is he gets paid to make crazy predictions that are almost never right.

 

[rpmurphy]

I can predict many things too if you ask me. And I can bet that if I make predictions every month, like he does, I'd have a lot of good ones only for common sense.

He doesn't know about videogames more than the average gamer on forums like this one...

If most of Pachter's analysis comes from observing the market from the consumer end, that would be only be natural. The success of a company is more than about creating successful products every single time though, and that's why some developers go under from a flop and others are able to sustain their business. The process of creating successful products is more valuable than the instance of that successful product, and that insight is something that consumers or market analysts don't typically have the benefit of seeing.

 

[ArtHands]

3G is optional, and that's why many people choose not to use it. It'll be better financial-wise if Sony didn't invest a single cent into it instead. Just like the back touch pad.

Yes memory card is how they earn money, but I believe more people will buy a slightly more expensive vita if it uses SD card instead. There are people who are boycotting it not because it is overpriced , but because it is proprietary.

OLED is just a 'its nice to have' thingy, but not really needed.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Most of the decline is due to the low profile Holiday lineup in 2012, that caused the biggest decrease compared to last year, especially in Europe where it was selling costantly better than 2011 till October when the console just started doing on par with 2011. And we're still seeing effects now. Fortunately for them, they have a big lineup (that should be incomplete too) coming up in the next months, with Pokémon in October too.

Stop with this crap already. Nintendo launched NSMB and the 3DSXL, and the sales are still declining. The handheld market as a whole in the west is declining. Even with MK7, and another Mario games Christmas 2011 the 3DS sales still did not meet Nintendo´s expectations.

While he said it weirdly, his overall point - that with the shrunken handheld market there's no room left for additional competitors - is spot-on.



See, the main issue they had was that they didn't really release any big system sellers in the West last year. The most profile title was NSMB2 and NSMB games are less system sellers and more of a staple that people get after they already own the system. Other than that they did release some good titles but nothing to actually sell consoles.

This year, however, they already have at least one huge holiday system seller - Pokemon - so that title alone makes this year's line-up 100x better from a business standpoint.

Lolwut? NSMB sells twice as much as Pokemon, and the 3DS is still declining.

 

[Razdek]

Wow, I agree with everything he said there.

I ended up skipping on the Vita for now for the reasons he outlined. It takes maybe five killer apps to sell me a system. I look at the Vita as a piece of hardware, and it's something I want to own. I look at the software lineup, and while there are some games I want, outside of Soul Sacrifice -- which I'm not sure is on that system seller level in the first place -- almost all of them are PS3 ports or even (gasp) PS2 ports, some of which I can already get on PC.

Meanwhile the 3DS hardware does nothing for me, the ghosting on the 3D is this horrendous dirty little secret that 3DS fanboys rarely mention, the standard model is uncomfortable, the XL model has terrible IQ and even worse sound...

But it has Mario 3D Land, Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem: Awakening, Crimson Shroud, Mario Kart 7...

I know I'm missing out on what is probably the best handheld hardware experience yet. I've held a Vita. I want Persona 4: Golden badly. I want to sit in bed and play fighting games online on a Saturday morning. Hell, as stupid as I feel saying this, I want to support the thing, because second and third tier consoles have almost always given me the best gaming experiences of their respective generation. But I can't pull the trigger yet. I can't buy something that is going to sit in the drawer for months at a time like my PSP did after the launch lineup wore out its welcome, or my DS did for almost the entire first year.

You're not missing much at the moment as that's where my Vita sits. It's fun for P4G which I'm going through at the moment and I tried the DOA5 demo but playing it and Tekken 6 with the dpad I can't seem to get the same responsiveness as with a real controller. It's a nice to have item but you can wait until the library hopefully fills out later.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Most likely sure, but again, big Western DS titles...?!

GTA China Town wars flopped massively on the DS.

 

[Platinumstorm]

I don't consider myself a big handheld gamer but this year I've already purchased 3 [3DS/DS] handheld titles, and last year I purchased at least 7 handheld titles.


I've been pretty pleased with the offerings, but I'm a bit guilty of being in the Mario camp with the titles [5 of the 10 games are Mario related]. I'd like to pick up the Devil Survivor games sometime [right now I'm on a handheld backlog - I'm not a big handheld player so lower schedules work fine for me] but worried I would have no idea of what's going on with such an established franchise. There's also a pretty neat downloadable title I would like to get. I don't remember the name, but it's a JP developer.

I'm not a big GTA fan, only ever got 3 and didn't care for it that much, but I thought GTACT looked terrible [I know people praise it].

 

[Razdek]

The Vita is missing that one game that makes the system worth owning. Sure there are select few who already feel it has the "one" title that justifies the price tag. For me it was LBP Vita. It's just a shame the online portion of that game turned out to be broken.

As much as people praise Sony's first party development, I don't think they have anything that could carry a system, especially a portable one. The Playstation brand has always had a large number of 3rd party heavy hitters backing their systems. The Vita's sales reflect what happens when they don't have that support.

Then you have to consider the fact that Sony seems to be completely oblivious to the fact that they need to create a game designed around a their portable system. Transplanting PS3 games just isn't going to cut it.

oh yeah btw, where the %#@! is Warriors Lair Sony?

I like the console graphics/gameplay on a portable system but the Vita just needs more of that rather than crap like Germinator. If I wanted to play phone like games I'd do it on my phone and not on my Vita.

 

[GhostOfLawlight]

Pachter is clueless about the industry. Does he expect a niche product to sell massively?

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

People give Mr Pachter a hard time because of the accuracy of his past predictions but he's pretty much on the money here.

These points aren't controversial at all unless you're a fanboy with your own reality distortion field - which sadly a good portion of GAF is.

 

[Krilekk]

IMO Vita back touch... dumb idea, it is only good to inflate the Vita's production cost.

That's actually the only thing that made me interested in Vita. The price killed it and having seen the results of OLED burn-in after just one year of useage made me never ever want one. Then again the market surely has moved on. I still play mobile, just on my Nexus 7.

 

[Baconsammy]

then neither is the Xbox so who cares

What in the hell does this have to do with what he and I were talking about?

 

[Htown]

Patcher is a joke. How the fuck is this guy employed?

I assume he is good at his actual job, which isn't saying whatever comes to his mind on Gametrailers.

I do kind of get the feeling he's a gigantic Sony fanboy sometimes, going back to his "no PC is more powerful than the PS3" nonsense, and now with his "people didn't buy the Vita because it's too good" silliness.

 

[RedAssedApe]

seems like people like to label things as "controversial" simply because pachter says them. regardless of the validity and logic behind them...

 

[KingJ2002]

I agree

1. Handheld market does suck... but only because Nintendo & Sony fail to go after the companies trying to take it away. Want to make Apple & Samsung step their game up? Add a sim card slot and add phone functionality.

I still like this mock up because it would allow for the system to double as a phone. Sony should have adopted a design like this and Pimped out PSN similar to what apple does with iTunes and Microsoft with Xbox Live's entertainment service.

If Nintendo added mobile technology to their next system. I can see parents easily getting those handhelds for their kids over iPhones.

2. Microsoft shouldn't come out with a dedicated traditional handheld gaming console. It would be a waste of time at this point. Go after the mobile market and expand xbox live... two birds... one stone.

 

[pelican]

In a sense he is right about the handheld market. I own a Vita and his comments are fairly accurate of the situation, although I wouldn't use the word joke to describe it.

As for MS, well this could be an indication that the next XBOX is going to be even more fundamentally moved from being a games console. A shame, I'm beginning to think MS are going to cock this one up. A jack of all trades, yet a master of none.

 

[Mashing]

It is baffling how 3rd parties can't find success on the 3DS considering Nintendo has no problems whatsover selling their software on the device.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Yup, and the difference is he gets paid to make crazy predictions that are almost never right.

You do understand that this isn't his actual job, right?

 

[GraveRobberX]

Does that make up for years of R&D and marketing?

What Marketing?

2 Week Short Media Blitz doesn't equal Marketing Campaign

R&D sure, but marketing is laughable

 

[Aquamarine]

I assume he is good at his actual job, which isn't saying whatever comes to his mind on Gametrailers.

I do kind of get the feeling he's a gigantic Sony fanboy sometimes, going back to his "no PC is more powerful than the PS3" nonsense, and now with his "people didn't buy the Vita because it's too good" silliness.

Pachter's "controversial statementzzzz" is an act. Usually there's no logic behind the statements. He just says them to rile up feathers and keep himself in the limelight.

Pachter has proven time and again that his REAL analyses are quite robust and informative. For example, take a brilliant post he submitted to GAF:

First, I must apologize for calling two thirds of you assholes. It's probably more like 5%, so I was overly sensitive in my generalization.

Second, and to the point, there is actually some reasoning behind my comments that the Wii U is a mistake from which Nintendo may not recover, and I threw the 3DS' cannibalization from smart phones and tablets in there to make a point.

Nintendo has historically made money, and a lot of money, on each hardware unit sold. The DS at $99 US is more profitable for them than the 3DS at $169 (see many quotes from Nintendo in Kyoto about losing money, or being barely profitable). The DS sold 23.5 million units in FY:07 (ended March 31), 30.3 million in FY:08, 31.1 million in FY:09, and 27.1 million in FY:10. Nintendo made money, and a lot of money, in each of those years.

I think it is instructive to use operating income in Yen as a guide, since Iwata said he would consider resigning if Nintendo did not earn ¥100 billion in FY:14. Nintendo made ¥90 billion in FY:06, ¥226 billion in FY:07, ¥487 billion in FY:08, ¥555 billion in FY:09, and ¥356 billion in FY:10. In FY:11, DS sales dropped to 17.5 million units, and operating income fell to ¥171 billion; in FY:12, combined DS and 3DS sales were 18.6 million units, but operating income disappeared, and Nintendo generated a LOSS of ¥37 billion. Obviously, the loss was impacted by lower Wii sales and lower software sales, but the point here is that the 3DS doesn't generate much of a profit per unit, if any, and the DS did.

Over the same period, Wii hardware sales were 0, 5.8 million, 18.6 million, 25.9 million, 20.5 million, 15.0 million, and 9.8 million. We have been repeatedly assured by Nintendo that the company makes a profit on every Wii sold, but as sales leveled off at 10 million, the company printed its first loss ever.

In FY:13 (the current year, ending next month), Nintendo is projected to sell 17.3 million DS and 3DS units combined, and to sell 8 million Wii and Wii U units combined, and is projected to generate an operating loss of ¥20 billion. That means that current levels of sales keep the company at roughly breakeven.

My comment about the Wii U being a "mistake" from which the company "may not recover" was intended to say that if Wii U sales don't materially improve, Nintendo is unlikely to be profitable. They have around ¥1 trillion (around $11 billion) in cash, so they aren't in danger of going out of business for decades. However, if they aren't profitable, they aren't doing a good job for shareholders.

To elaborate, if the Wii U is not generating profits, and if the 3DS is not generating profits, the only thing that will generate profits is software. Nintendo is ensured high sales of its proprietary software, but it makes the most money on its royalty business, collecting fees from third parties for the privilege of letting them put out games on Nintendo platforms. Publishing (software) revenues peaked at ¥675 billion in FY:09, and are on track to come in around ¥235 billion this year; my call is that if hardware sales don't materially improve above current combined levels, software sales are unlikely to materially grow. If software sales don't materially improve, losses or break even will become the norm. Nintendo will not "recover" to its formal highly profitable glory.

The poor sales of the Wii U in January are likely to impact third party publisher plans to support the console. Notice that GTAV is not on the Wii U; that wasn't a typo, they don't see enough promise in sales to cause them to spend extra development dollars on a Wii U version. I have spoken to several publishers who are skeptical, and I think that the Wii U will see a lower level of third party support than the Wii did, unless sales materially improve. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it, but without third party titles, Nintendo will not generate its customary levels of royalties, and losses or break even could become the norm.

Many of you point out that the 3DS is selling better than the DS at a similar point. That's true, but the DS was always profitable, and the 3DS is not. Also, the DS saw sales go from 8.8 million units in its first four quarters to 18.0 million its next four, to 20.2 million in its third full year; I'm pretty confident that the 3DS will not get to 20 million units, but even if it did, it would generate little profit from hardware. Keep in mind that the DS redesign to a lite version boosted sales, and there was little competition for 12 year-old and older from smart phones and tablets. Now, parents who can afford it are opting for Kindles, iPads, and smart phones for their teenagers, and the more casual of those are perfectly happy playing Angry Birds and putting their DS or 3DS into a drawer.

The important point is that if 3DS sales level off at 15 million and Wii U sales level off at 8 - 10 million, software sales will be much lower than they were in the past. If Nintendo doesn't make a profit on hardware, they can't afford to cut prices further. If they do cut price, it will likely occur as their manufacturing costs come down, but I don't expect big hardware profits in the foreseeable future. They are stuck with software profits, and at current sales levels, they are unlikely to make an overall profit from software.

That's it, not trolling, but that is my reasoning.

To the 5% of you who ARE assholes, bring it on ;-)

 

[curlyfriski]

I assume he is good at his actual job, which isn't saying whatever comes to his mind on Gametrailers.

I do kind of get the feeling he's a gigantic Sony fanboy sometimes, going back to his "no PC is more powerful than the PS3" nonsense, and now with his "people didn't buy the Vita because it's too good" silliness.

I take that comment to mean that the Vita is too high spec, which causes it to be too high-priced for any gaming-dedicated handheld device to sell in large quantities, and that if Sony had cut down on build quality and features in order to get to a lower price point it would be doing better. I don't think that is a ridiculous argument to make.

 

[Angry Grimace]

I take that comment to mean that the Vita is too high spec, which causes it to be too high-priced for any gaming-dedicated handheld device to sell in large quantities, and that if Sony had cut down on build quality and features in order to get to a lower price point it would be doing better. I don't think that is a ridiculous argument to make.

I think I understand what he's saying. To some extent you're getting what you pay for, but nobody necessarily wants to pay what it costs to get those things because they aren't necessary.

 

[Night_Trekker]

Wat

EDIT:

Spoiler

Yes I know what he actually means, it's funny to take those words out of context however

I was expecting this after reading the OP. Thank you.

 

[zoukka]

Yep Vita lacks focus just like the PSP did. This was evident from day 0 just like its stillbirth.

 

[SpoonyBard]

Yep Vita lacks focus just like the PSP did. This was evident from day 0 just like its stillbirth.

Yeah, it's like that car Homer Simpson designed, plus it only accepts Sony brand gasoline...

 

[mujun]

I can predict many things too if you ask me. And I can bet that if I make predictions every month, like he does, I'd have a lot of good ones only for common sense.

He doesn't know about videogames more than the average gamer on forums like this one...

So you think that the average gamer from this forum could do what he does and get paid for it like he does?

 

[SpoonyBard]

So you think that the average gamer from this forum could do what he does and get paid for it like he does?

There are people here who could do the gaming side part of his job much better than he does, but it doesn't matter. Pachter is still the guy everyone goes to when video game market analysis is needed.

 

[omonimo]

There are people here who could do the gaming side part of his job much better than he does, but it doesn't matter. Pachter is still the guy everyone goes to when video game market analysis is needed.

So now we know why psvita & nintendo lately failed so much.

 

[Roo]

I agree

1. Handheld market does suck... but only because Nintendo & Sony fail to go after the companies trying to take it away. Want to make Apple & Samsung step their game up? Add a sim card slot and add phone functionality.

Wouldn't that go against everything Nintendo stands for?
the moment they do this, it stops being a handheld/dedicated gaming system to turn into a Nintendo branded phone.

 

[Floex]

How can Sony cut functionality of the vita to cut the price?

The back screen for one.

Nothing controversial about tose comments either.

 

[Nibel]

Patcher is right, and yes: what he says isn't exactly new, but the audience is GT and just one small peak at the comments is enough to let you know what kind of audience that is

Love my Vita and hate it at the same time; but Soul Sacrifice will make me happy again (and I still need to get P4 dammit)

 

[KAL2006]

Current PSN+ members have no excuse not to buy a Vita. I bought my Vita with a 8GB card for £160. I got Uncharted, Wipeout, Gravity Rush, Lumines, Mortal Kombat, MGS HD Collection, VLR and a couple of more games all part of PSN+ which I already had for PS3.