Support NeoGAF

[Real_Madrid]

Why didn't either article quote him directly on that statement? It would be nice to know exactly what he said, because saying that the consoles could do something, with caveats, is rather different from saying they will, in fact, do that.

He said that, in fact he says stupid things in every pach attack. Pachter doesn't know what FPS or resolution is, in fact in a recent episode he said so many stupid things, I was sure Neogaf would make a thread about it.

That said, he should only talk about the financials and the future of gaming, that's where I think he makes most sense. Like when he said why the King acquisition was a no brainer for Activision, it was probably the only good opinion I got why Activision bought them, while everyone else just said they were mad for doing that.

 

[marmoka]

I know, but we are still struggling with 60fps even now haha.

I thought you didn't get it, haha

 

[Hoje0308]

I know, but we are still struggling with 60fps even now haha.

That doesn't mean anything though. You're talking about resource allocation priorities, while it sounds like he was speaking hypothetically. Hard to know without a direct quote though, as both articles were too shoddy to do so.

He said that, in fact he says stupid things in every pach attack. Pachter doesn't know what FPS or resolution is, in fact in a recent episode he said so many stupid things, I was sure Neogaf would make a thread about it.

That said, he should only talk about the financials and the future of gaming, that's where I think he makes most sense. Like when he said why the King acquisition was a no brainer for Activision, it was probably the only good opinion I got why Activision bought them, while everyone else just said they were mad for doing that.

Receipts dot gif

 

[ivanalexander23]

It's pretty obvious by now that he's just trolling Nintendo fans. No need to get worked up.

 

[Astral Dog]

I don't need a portable console; my smart phone is enough.

I wish Nintendo would spend that allocated money on better interior console tech rather than trying to save its portable presence.

Their portable presence is basically whats keeping them alive, now expanding with Smartphone games too.

 

[Oersted]

I'm guessing in this case he's using CEO statements from the last couple of years, supplier statements, and rumors like Digitimes to try and begin early predictions that he will continue to shape as the system is revealed.

In this scenario, Gamingbolt mailed him asking for an opinion in an interview about what will happen in the future of the industry.

Weren't there multiple analysts predicting better business for Foxconn in 2016 due to NX?

 

[madstarr12]

Geesh, he's speculating just like everyone else is in here. People need to chill.

BTW, wasn't Trev's source simply verified, in a way where the source is confirmed to be someone who MAY know information like that, not that it was ACTUALLY confirmed to be true?

 

[Archie]

But I thought the Wii U was Nintendo's Dreamcast. There shouldn't be another system coming!

Well, it is.

It has a handful of great games, but that handful is literally the only thing it has.

 

[Oddduck]

Let's review Pachter predicting new gens :

Pachter: 3DS could sell many units at a price upwards of $250

Pachter: Wii U will sell out for months (through April 2013)

Pachter gets a lot of things wrong, but his opinions on the Wii U were 90% correct.

Pachter: Wii U is Nintendo's Dreamcast -- March 2012

“I think that if in fact it’s a lot like an Xbox 360 in terms of graphics, frame rate and control scheme, then it’s probably not going to sell well unless it’s priced a lot cheaper, and I don’t think they’re launching the console at $150.

“So, yeah I think they are about to Dreamcast themselves. I don’t think Wii U is going to be as popular as probably Nintendo thinks it’s going to be. Question is, what does Nintendo do next, and I don’t know the answer yet. Let’s see howWii U sells, and I’m not going to predict this demise until I know pricing and features. When I know more about it, I’ll offer a better opinion.”

Pachter: Nintendo in disarray, blown it with Wii U -- Feb 2012, ten months before Wii U launched.

“Wii was a bubble and that the Wii bubble has burst.” - Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter

Pachter: Wii U Is Two Years Late And Has The Dumbest Name Ever -- June 2011

Pachter: Price Drop won't help Wii U -- April 2013 (4 months after launch)

"The only key hardware device to underperform our expectations was the Wii U," Pachter said of last month's numbers, "and its fortunes appear unlikely to improve for several months, even if Nintendo decides to drop price, as there are an insufficient number of core titles that are generating interest in the console. We think that core gamers are far more likely to turn their attention to the PS4 (due in the holiday season) and the next Xbox, which we believe will be unveiled before E3 and have a launch alongside that of the PS4, and believe that the long-term appeal of the Wii U will be severely limited by the perception that the PS4 and next Xbox will be much more powerful with greater online integration and multimedia functionality."

 

[Azelover]

It's pretty obvious by now that he's just trolling Nintendo fans. No need to get worked up.

That's a possibility.

 

[mindsale]

God I hope it's not 2017 with current-gen tech inside. I just assume it's 2016 since there's a steep cliff in terms of releases in the middle of the calendar year.

 

[SuperLeviathan]

That fact that he's even talking about a hybrid, something that's been debunked time and again, kind of throws his information into question.

 

[Real_Madrid]

If you are wrong a lot, like he is, then what is the point of predicting?

Everyone who makes many predictions is wrong a lot, that's part of the deal.
If you made a few predictions every week for games/consoles/future of gaming or wathever, I'm sure you would also be wrong a lot, that doesn't mean you shouldn't say your opinion on forums like Neogaf.

I'm not listening to him for his opinion for Fallout 4 for example or what the next console will be capable of.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

I’ve no idea what that thing is going to be,

Okay

 

[KJRS_1993]

It's pretty obvious by now that he's just trolling Nintendo fans. No need to get worked up.

Because Michael Pachter 'really' gives a shit about rustling Nintendo fan's jimmies over doing his high-paid high-performance job.

 

[Pokemaniac]

So the only credible rumor goes against what Pachter is saying?

I'm not sure I'd say only credible rumor (there have been several things regarding dev kit distribution), but yeah, current rumors directly contradict at least that part of his predictions.

 

[Hoje0308]

Geesh, he's speculating just like everyone else is in here. People need to chill.

BTW, wasn't Trev's source simply verified, in a way where the source is confirmed to be someone who MAY know information like that, not that it was ACTUALLY confirmed to be true?

I assumed that the latest Direct confirmed some of the predictions, which of course gives credibility to the rest of it.

 

[DiracSea]

Okay, here's what puzzles me the most about his opinion:


WHY does he believe that a handheld-console hybrid would be a bad thing? Having all games come out for both handheld and console, playing the same games with better performance on the console. Where is the problem? We get to have a steady lineup, no more split between handheld and console. We don't have to buy more than one hardware, unless we value portable or bigscreen-gaming both.

What's not to love? Sure, the system would probably be "only" about as powerful as an Xbox One, but that's fine. It's not like Sony and MS have released a ton of games that truly rely on hardware power outside of the graphics department. As long as the NX family is powerful enough to make third-party ports possible, it'll be enough.

Oh, and there absolutely will be one of the NX-systems be out in 2016. The world needs to be freed from 240p gaming

 

[Nirolak]

Weren't there multiple analysts predicting better business for Foxconn in 2016 due to NX?

Those aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.

Foxconn will manufacture a large launch shipment regardless of how well it sells. If they get significantly more business the year after is up to debate.

 

[AmyS]

So from what Pachter said, NX is going to be really amazing, relatively powerful, modern tech and it's coming out this year, at least the home console variant, so again, NX is not a hybrid single device.

Fantastic.

 

[MrV4ltor]

Not listening to anything he says.

 

[FunkyDealer]

I don't think he's sitting on more information than us. And I've never trusted a word this man says, because it's all speculation.

I still believe we're looking at an initial lanch this year. But it may not be worldwide.

 

[Oersted]

Those aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.

Foxconn will manufacture a large launch shipment regardless of how well it sells. If they get significantly more business the year after is up to debate.

The important part was the year, not how well it will sell.

 

[TheXfactor]

I’ve no idea what that thing is going to be

You know, it’s sounding an awful lot like it’s a handheld and console hybrid

 

[Orniletter]

Thanks for your contribution and for proving that you can't be bothered to read more than the headline.

Yeah, he should have commented on Pachter's deep insight " I don't know shit, but already hate it anyway" instead.

 

[Hoje0308]

So from what Pachter said, NX is going to be really amazing, relatively powerful, modern tech and it's coming out this year, at least the home console variant, so again, NX is not a hybrid single device.

Fantastic.

That's a really good joke.

Yeah, he should have commented on Pachter's deep insight " I don't know shit, but already hate it anyway" instead.

Actually, yes. That's the point of this message board. If you want to shit post, then go somewhere else.

 

[TheSecondSpitter]

It's pretty obvious by now that he's just trolling Nintendo fans. No need to get worked up.

Seriously?

He's on a six-digit salary and works 14 hour days. He also has a family. I'm sure he's got better things to do with his limited free time.

Spoiler

Like play Fallout 4.

Maybe you're confusing him with Yahtzee or somebody else.

 

[spookyfish]

He was right about wii u

That wasn't exactly rocket science ....

 

[Hard]

This Pachter hate boner needs to stop.

It'll probably be a great console to the core Nintendo faithful, but also be loaded with some gimmick that doesn't add much to the experience and fails to attract casuals the way the Wii did.

End result, sales somewhere between the Wii U and the Gamecube.

 

[GhostTrick]

That approached on the Wii U with Zombi U, Lego Undercover and Bayonetta 2 did not work. Nor did it work with CoD on PSV.



It is according to most economists I speak to. Gold is up 15% in the last 6 months. Investment banks are starting to pull the same shenanigans pre-2008. It's coming

Actually, the fact that Wii was successful in contracting market demonstrates that the elasticity for consoles is quite elastic. Except the PS4 will be $300-$350 when the NX launches.

That's because these were 2 failed systems. That kind of strategy works when it s a steady stream of quality content. Not when you can count the games on one hand.

 

[Hibiki Kurosawa]

Pachter says a lot of things.

 

[TheSecondSpitter]

That wasn't exactly rocket science ....

So it's okay to trash him when he's wrong, but when he makes a correct prediction he gets no credit? (No wonder he no longer posts here)

 

[Oersted]

So it's okay to trash him when he's wrong, but when he makes a correct prediction he gets no credit? (No wonder he no longer posts here)

He wasn't right about WiiU, as pointed out earlier.

 

[TheSecondSpitter]

That's because these were 2 failed systems. That kind of strategy works when it s a steady stream of quality content. Not when you can count the games on one hand.

Provide me with an example of when this strategy was successful.

 

[GhostTrick]

So it's okay to trash him when he's wrong, but when he makes a correct prediction he gets no credit? (No wonder he no longer posts here)

Let's be honest here: Pachter predictions are infamous worldwide for being wrong most of the time.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Everyone who makes many predictions is wrong a lot, that's part of the deal.
If you made a few predictions every week for games/consoles/future of gaming or wathever, I'm sure you would also be wrong a lot, that doesn't mean you shouldn't say your opinion on forums like Neogaf.

I'm not listening to him for his opinion for Fallout 4 for example or what the next console will be capable of.

There's a bit of a distinction between being wrong a bunch, and consistently predicting the opposite of what's going to happen. Pachter's Nintendo predictions tend more towards the latter.

Okay, here's what puzzles me the most about his opinion:


WHY does he believe that a handheld-console hybrid would be a bad thing? Having all games come out for both handheld and console, playing the same games with better performance on the console. Where is the problem? We get to have a steady lineup, no more split between handheld and console. We don't have to buy more than one hardware, unless we value portable or bigscreen-gaming both.

What's not to love? Sure, the system would probably be "only" about as powerful as an Xbox One, but that's fine. It's not like Sony and MS have released a ton of games that truly rely on hardware power outside of the graphics department. As long as the NX family is powerful enough to make third-party ports possible, it'll be enough.

Oh, and there absolutely will be one of the NX-systems be out in 2016. The world needs to be freed from 240p gaming

A bunch of the hardware needs of consoles and handhelds are kinda at odds with each other. It would be a jack of all trades, master of none kind of situation. When most of the key benefits can be gotten through separate pieces of hardware with a shared software ecosystem, keeling the hardware separate to allow it to specialize is generally preferable.

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

Okay, here's what puzzles me the most about his opinion:


WHY does he believe that a handheld-console hybrid would be a bad thing? Having all games come out for both handheld and console, playing the same games with better performance on the console. Where is the problem? We get to have a steady lineup, no more split between handheld and console. We don't have to buy more than one hardware, unless we value portable or bigscreen-gaming both.

What's not to love? Sure, the system would probably be "only" about as powerful as an Xbox One, but that's fine. It's not like Sony and MS have released a ton of games that truly rely on hardware power outside of the graphics department. As long as the NX family is powerful enough to make third-party ports possible, it'll be enough.

Oh, and there absolutely will be one of the NX-systems be out in 2016. The world needs to be freed from 240p gaming

But how does it work? How expensive is the handheld and what battery life do you have ? How much harder/limiting to have to also make a barebones version? Are they sold separately so you have to buy two copies of all games? Just look at cross buy things of like ps3/vita and the poor performance a lot of things had on the vita in comparison. If they're already with no 3rd parties will having to develop 2 versions of each really make people want to develop games on it? It's an interesting idea but I'm not sure how it will mechanically work. You'll have to make compromises somewhere, either it's a shitty handheld or a shitty console (in that graphics and such are still far behind the times). That would be trying to have your cake and eat it too.

 

[TheSecondSpitter]

Let's be honest here: Pachter predictions are infamous worldwide for being wrong most of the time.

If Pachter was as wrong as often as people claim he'd be unemployed and living on skid row years ago.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Well, it is.

It has a handful of great games, but that handful is literally the only thing it has.

That wasn't the point of my post, it was a joke about Pachter calling Wii U Nintendo's Dreamcast... and the DC being Sega's last console.

Not sure how that went over your head lol

 

[GhostTrick]

If Pachter was as wrong as often as people claim he'd be unemployed and living on skid row years ago.

I doubt that an analyst job is only about predictions though.

 

[DiracSea]

But how does it work? How expensive is the handheld and what battery life do you have ? How much harder/limiting to have to also make a barebones version? Are they sold separately so you have to buy two copies of all games? Just look at cross buy things of like ps3/vita and the poor performance a lot of things had on the vita in comparison. If they're already with no 3rd parties will having to develop 2 versions of each really make people want to develop games on it? It's an interesting idea but I'm not sure how it will mechanically work.

It is rumored the the console will feature cartridges, so you wouldn't buy two copies, the same game is the same game. Just when you insert it into the console, additional graphic effects might be active.

And about the limiting factor, it depends. There was a rumor not so far ago that the NX would be slightly less powerful than an Xbox One. That would make sense. It'd mean we'd get a nice, unexpectedly big jump for the NX-handheld. But it would also mean that the console would be less powerful than wished for. But as long as multiplatform titles can run on it, I don't see the problem with it. A hardware slightly below Xbox One is still an incredibly powerful hardware for Nintendo.

 

[Golgo 13]

can someone tell me what this guy does?

is he actually making a living from saying stuff like this?

He's a stock market analyst for the video game industry. In other words, he's paid very well to advise people what stocks to invest in within the video game industry. This means he doesn't have a "gamers" perspective on the industry, he has a business and market perspective, which is where people don't understand Pachter -- he's not making predictions that come from his own fandom (like many gamers tend to do) he's making predictions based on market trends.

 

[Aroll]

2016 it is. Also SHOCKING NEWS: Pachter still being desperate to stay relevant.

Never understood this mentality from those who disagree with his opinions.

1. He isn't paid for these opinions. In fact, what we hear publicly is almost entirely stuff he does for free. So we can say he "is trying to stay relevant" - but to what end? It certainly has nothing to do with his career.

2. What he does for a living is in no jeopardy.

He has strong opinions. Always has.

That being said, his viewpoints are shaped by what has happened in the past versus what is completely unknown. As an example, many Nintendo fans or former fans may be excited by what the NX could be. What it might represent. But, Nintendo's own prior models suggest that the NX is going to be underpowered and totally not in sync with the tech and gaming world. As for his release prediction, he's not wrong. Nintendo has always shown the thing off 18 months before release.

Until Nintendo bucks these trends and proves otherwise, it's perfectly reasonable to think this.

 

[tiredheadcrab]

I think this just came with me getting older but when the 3ds came out, I played if far less than the DS. I just didnt have time and my smartphone just replaced it. I actually dont play games on my smartphone but rather i surf the web, watch youtube videos, check twitter and facebook, listen to music ect. I am not sure how a handheld will do in 2016 or 2017. If anyone follows zhuge on twitter, you will know that Apple and Google took a huge chunk of Nintendos handheld market.

In terms of home console, Nintendo needs great 3rd party support. Without it the system will fail.

 

[Hoje0308]

If Pachter was as wrong as often as people claim he'd be unemployed and living on skid row years ago.

And Nirolak has commented on his strengths in this very thread. People don't read though.

 

[AgeEighty]

No idea what it's going to be, but he knows it won't be very good.

When are people going to realize that all Pachter does is take current trends and extrapolate them into the future, and stop giving this guy so much undeserved attention?

 

[TheSecondSpitter]

He's a stock market analyst for the video game industry. In other words, he's paid very well to advise people what stocks to invest in within the video game industry. This means he doesn't have a "gamers" perspective on the industry, he has a business and market perspective, which is where people don't understand Pachter -- he's not making predictions that come from his own fandom (like many gamers tend to do) he's making predictions based on past market trends.

This is inaccurate. He's a self-confessed gamer -- as much as his job & family allow him. He also talks to industry insiders everyday.

I doubt that an analyst job is only about predictions though.

What else do you think it entails? Investors invariably ask Pachter two questions: should I buy or should I sell?

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

- There's nothing hard with building a console or handheld nowadays. It's not very hard (read: very easy) to buy off-the-shelf parts and build a gaming device. It depends how much they wanna spend and on what.

Of course its hard to build a powerful, efficient, easy to develop for console while undercutting Ps4 and XB1 in price. Its not like Nintendo just needs to be about as powerful as the other two, if the want to cut into that market they need to be significantly more powerful and cheaper.

- Nintendo's 1st party offerings sells extremely well, even on the tiny Wii U userbase. The attach rate for their games are out of this world. So their games are still very much relevant, but they do need third party games to fill up the gaps.

Nintendo games sell to Nintendo fans. Nintendo fans buy Nintendo consoles. thatwhy you have such high attach rates. But the number of Nintendo fans is way lower than people think. Wii was an outlier that didn't sell to Nintendo fans only, but if you look at the trend N64, GC and WiiU show then you'll realise that there aren't more tahn 10-20mil Nintendo fans who are willing to buy a Nintendo console for Nintendo games.

- I only agree that it's gonna be hard for Nintendo to get all (big) third party publishers on board. The even harder thing is to get them to release the AAA games on Nintendo's console (GTA, Bethesda games, Battlefield etc.)

Yeah, I think thats pretty much impossible unless Nintendo pays these studios to develop for their plattform, and I'm not even sure if 3rd Party support on a Nintendo console would catch on. I'm pretty sure most fanbases would just stay where their friends, clans and trophies/achievements are.
Sony and MS built a gaming network last gen, Nintendo slept during that gen and now Sony and MS have millions of loyal customers who are engaged with the networks(PSN/XBL) and Nintendo is going to have an even harder time to win these people over.


I'm pretty sure Nintendo is smart enough to not even try all that.

 

[4Tran]

Why all the controversy? The two main takeaways from Pachter's statements are:

I would say based on Nintendo’s recent history, it is not going to be very good.

But I think Nintendo is desperately clinging on to an old business model that is passing them by.

Both of these points are pretty straight forward and there's little reason to think that Nintendo is doing much to refute them.

 

[Koozek]

Pre-order cancelled.