Out of their four most recent hardware releases only one was a genuine flop. The 3DS is a big drop-off from DS, but it isn't a failure at all from a general standpoint. The other two were big succe- whatever, why am I even trying? I'll proably get a "WIi was a fad"-response next anyway.
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Pachter thinks NX will release in 2017, won't be very good.
- Thread starter Hoje0308
- Start date
Out of their four most recent hardware releases only one was a genuine flop. The 3DS is a big drop-off from DS, but it isn't a failure at all from a general standpoint. The other two were big succe- whatever, why am I even trying? I'll proably get a "WIi was a fad"-response next anyway.
Alebrije
Member
Just saying that every time Patch appears on a tread predicting somethig people ALWAYS say the contrary will happen
He says will rain tomorrow = surely won't rain
Just that nothing more that can affect his personal life......
Yeah, he's not entirely wrong. He's probably right that Nintendo will release new hardware in the near future...
I just got a "I wanna punch him" subtext to your comment. sorry if wrong.
Athreous
Member
He might be right.
If NX works in a "stream like" system, it'll be really bad if it's dependent on wifi, since not many homes have awesome connection...
Wii dad some good games, but I hate that controller, and the way that you are forced to use it in some games without the option to use a normal one...
If NX works in a "stream like" system, it'll be really bad if it's dependent on wifi, since not many homes have awesome connection...
Wii dad some good games, but I hate that controller, and the way that you are forced to use it in some games without the option to use a normal one...
A lot of companies actually show or tell analysts about things months in advance so he's clarifying that he's talking about it based on the rumors instead of inside knowledge.
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
The amount of fanatical mob hate that Pachter gets is absurd. Nothing he's said this time is even really inflammatory or some huge leap in logic. Hedging your bets that it won't be a success when there are still wildly different rumors about what the console will even be but will release in the next 9 months or that it will be pushed back to early next year isn't exactly an unreasonable assumption.
So? Do you know what an equity researcher even is? It's his job to give opinions and like Nirolak says he's going off of things he's heard, not discussions he's had with management at the company. People really need to learn more about finance.
Again, please learn what his job is because I don't think you understand. It's not "irresponsible" for him to do his job, this post is so over dramatic.
So? Do you know what an equity researcher even is? It's his job to give opinions and like Nirolak says he's going off of things he's heard, not discussions he's had with management at the company. People really need to learn more about finance.
Again, please learn what his job is because I don't think you understand. It's not "irresponsible" for him to do his job, this post is so over dramatic.
Megatron
Member
But that's pretty damn irresponsible. They are rumors, they are the same rumors we all heard about years ago. You can't sit there and say "I would say it’s a backward looking technology, that is just not an improvement over everything else that we’ve got an option to do, and it will completely miss the point of games getting away from consoles." based on rumors. The rest of it, fine. He wants to speculate that its not coming until 2017, fine. But trashing the system that he openly admits he has no idea what it is, is just stupid. By the way, my guess is the console releases this year and the handheld releases next year, and then Pachter says he was right because he never said which version would release in 2017.
In fact I clearly remember that at first he said the Wii U would be a great success. I remember it so well because of the thread about it saying just the opposite, fueling some negative and pessimistic GAF user's arguments.
Later, when everyone saw some mistakes made by Nintendo, he changed his song to the usual Nintendoomed.
Also, when reading Pachter stuff I always remember this scene from Sherlock Holmes, Mycroft reading Watson's telegram lol
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
I don't have faith in it, either.
Nintendo needs something like the Wii again, a system that captures an entirely new market.
Doing something like that is extremely hard and not really predictable, I don't see them pulling it off.
Their other option would be to go after the Sony/MS market, but I think they're too far behind the other to guys to get any significant marketshare.
There are too many obstacles for them:
-Providing stronger hardware while beeing priced competitively(even undercutting Ps4/Xb1)
-Getting all indies and 3rd parties on board in order to compete with Ps4/XB1 line up diversity.
-Pushing out enough high quality 1st party software to create a big incentive for consumers to choose the Nintendo system over Ps4/Xb1. I don't think their existing franchises still cut it. Nintendo needs new stuff. What they have now appeals to a core Nintendo fanbase of 10-15mil people. They need to appeal to way more people with their 1st party line up.
These challenges are very hard. In other words, not going to happen.
I'm sure Nintendo knows that they're unable to compete with Sony and MS, so I'm fairly certain they will go for an entirely new market and I'm fairly certain they will fail.
Nintendo needs something like the Wii again, a system that captures an entirely new market.
Doing something like that is extremely hard and not really predictable, I don't see them pulling it off.
Their other option would be to go after the Sony/MS market, but I think they're too far behind the other to guys to get any significant marketshare.
There are too many obstacles for them:
-Providing stronger hardware while beeing priced competitively(even undercutting Ps4/Xb1)
-Getting all indies and 3rd parties on board in order to compete with Ps4/XB1 line up diversity.
-Pushing out enough high quality 1st party software to create a big incentive for consumers to choose the Nintendo system over Ps4/Xb1. I don't think their existing franchises still cut it. Nintendo needs new stuff. What they have now appeals to a core Nintendo fanbase of 10-15mil people. They need to appeal to way more people with their 1st party line up.
These challenges are very hard. In other words, not going to happen.
I'm sure Nintendo knows that they're unable to compete with Sony and MS, so I'm fairly certain they will go for an entirely new market and I'm fairly certain they will fail.
That's pretty much the nature of what analyst interviews are about.
Some rumors come out about a new Apple device or Time Warner service or etc and every analyst for that industry is phoned up and asked to comment on what they think the result of that initiative would be.
GhostTrick
Banned
I dont really value Pachter's words as an analyst. The guy seems pretty much clueless about the video game industry.
Although, I think he's spot on about one thing: technology wise. I dont expect NX to wow us but to be affordable.
As for the old business model, it depends what he means by that. If it's again Pachter saying Nintendo should go 3rd party, he's wrong.
If he's saying that Nintendo shouldnt keep their current model, I agree. NX is the occasion for them to embrace actual business model, which is based around ecosystems, shared software and compatibility between devices. And I think Nintendo's best card would be to move into a 100% shared between devices library.
Although, I think he's spot on about one thing: technology wise. I dont expect NX to wow us but to be affordable.
As for the old business model, it depends what he means by that. If it's again Pachter saying Nintendo should go 3rd party, he's wrong.
If he's saying that Nintendo shouldnt keep their current model, I agree. NX is the occasion for them to embrace actual business model, which is based around ecosystems, shared software and compatibility between devices. And I think Nintendo's best card would be to move into a 100% shared between devices library.
TheSecondSpitter
Member
Come on now, even the most bias Nintendo faithful know they are caught between a rock and a hard place with the NX, because they:
-- can't take significant risks because another failure will make them vulnerable;
-- can't catch up to their competitors (who have at least 4 years left in their product cycle) but they need 3rd party support; (this supports a 2017 release)
-- forced to launch a console with a tiny OP because of the above considerations;
-- forced to launch a new console in a (forecasted) contracting economy;
GhostTrick
Banned
LordOcidax
Member
So... NX this year confirmed.
Did we have any credible rumor? Is Pächter referring to any credible rumor?
24th March 2009
21st September 2015
He'll say anything to get his "console games shouldn't require a console" prediction correct.
21st September 2015
He'll say anything to get his "console games shouldn't require a console" prediction correct.
TheSecondSpitter
Member
Rising development costs mean 3rd party studios are more stretched than ever.
GhostTrick
Banned
I think it's better for Nintendo to get specific deals rather than courting for multiplats that wont sell because people will get them elsewhere.
It would work better for Nintendo to get BGE2 as an exclusive rather than the latest Assassin's Creed port.
I cannot believe you guys don't trust him. Pachter said once that new consoles like PS4 and Xbox One would move games at 240fps. He's a wise man in the videogame industry. He didn't fail. We all should trust his words.
Sonys new console will feature graphics chips developed by Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and processors capable of rendering games at 240 frames a second, Pachter said.
While current generation consoles render most games at 30 frames per second, with only a few titles hitting 60 frames per second, Pachter believes that the PS4 will be supplied with processors that will have the ability of rendering games at an astounding 240 frames per second.
Sonys new console will feature graphics chips developed by Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and processors capable of rendering games at 240 frames a second, Pachter said.
While current generation consoles render most games at 30 frames per second, with only a few titles hitting 60 frames per second, Pachter believes that the PS4 will be supplied with processors that will have the ability of rendering games at an astounding 240 frames per second.
Handy Fake
Member
Pachter is the definition of a recipreversexcluson.
It sounds like he is talking about this Gen, not Last Gen here.
Let's review Pachter predicting new gens :
Pachter: 3DS could sell many units at a price upwards of $250
Pachter: Wii U will sell out for months (through April 2013)
Pachter: 3DS could sell many units at a price upwards of $250
Pachter: Wii U will sell out for months (through April 2013)
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
I'm sorry but the bolded isn't an actual thing. The Wii was printing money during one of the world global recessions we've seen, general sales aren't in elastic as you're trying to pretend. It's going to matter more with how they are perceived among their competitors (as always). There's no major economic concern for them in Japan or otherwise at this current time. There is some downward pressure but certainly not worse than during the global recession where they saw their highest revenue.
Yes, let's randomly cherry pick examples when an analyst was wrong. Because never in the history of the world has an analyst been wrong nor has a company exceeded analyst expectations. You've provided a lethal blow to Pachter and his legacy.
Pokemaniac
Member
There was a pretty credible rumor posted on NeoGAF recently that pointed to a 2016 planned release. Clearly that's not what Pachter is referring to, though.
TheSecondSpitter
Member
That approached on the Wii U with Zombi U, Lego Undercover and Bayonetta 2 did not work. Nor did it work with CoD on PSV.
It is according to most economists I speak to. Gold is up 15% in the last 6 months. Investment banks are starting to pull the same shenanigans pre-2008. It's coming
Actually, the fact that Wii was successful in contracting market demonstrates that the elasticity for consoles is quite elastic. Except the PS4 will be $300-$350 when the NX launches.
Mentosrock
Member
I almost WANT to believe him because of my frustrations towards Nintendo.. But when has he EVER been right? '2016 and it'll be very good' isn't even a joke response. At least one of those things is a guarantee now.
So the only credible rumor goes against what Pachter is saying?
I'm guessing in this case he's using CEO statements from the last couple of years, supplier statements, and rumors like Digitimes to try and begin early predictions that he will continue to shape as the system is revealed.
In this scenario, Gamingbolt mailed him asking for an opinion in an interview about what will happen in the future of the industry.
Thank you for finding a source for that Wii U success prediction I remembered a few posts above
LOL Mycroft!
- There's nothing hard with building a console or handheld nowadays. It's not very hard (read: very easy) to buy off-the-shelf parts and build a gaming device. It depends how much they wanna spend and on what.
- Nintendo's 1st party offerings sells extremely well, even on the tiny Wii U userbase. The attach rate for their games are out of this world. So their games are still very much relevant, but they do need third party games to fill up the gaps.
- I only agree that it's gonna be hard for Nintendo to get all (big) third party publishers on board. The even harder thing is to get them to release the AAA games on Nintendo's console (GTA, Bethesda games, Battlefield etc.)
Real_Madrid
Member
I always find these posts so easy. You can make such a list for every user, every analist, every youtuber,... who has an opinion about something.
Pachter makes predictions all the time, off course he's going to be wrong a lot.
I agree with him on most of his Nintendo opinions to be honest.
Why didn't either article quote him directly on that statement? It would be nice to know exactly what he said, because saying that the consoles could do something, with caveats, is rather different from saying they will, in fact, do that.
This article is from 2013
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Yep. Just like graphics cards on the PC with their specs for each resolution/max hz.
It 'can' do it, does not mean engines will be built doing it.
Milly Osworth
Member
If you are wrong a lot, like he is, then what is the point of predicting?
yep, best selling system of all times, confirmed.
So do I, as I don't want Nintendo to fail. Haven't bought any of their hardware since the Gamecube, but I do like the games they make. I don't have high hopes for Nintendo going forward, but would love to be proven wrong.
I know, but we are still struggling with 60fps even now haha.
So they need exclusive games? When theres a market of 60 million consoles that can play similar games.
Good luck Nintendo.
CosmicQueso
Member
The man's good enough at his job where everyone freaks out whenever he says anything, gets paid a good chunk more than 99% of us will ever dream about, and laughs whenever GAF is mentioned to him.
So.
So.
Well..PSVR is "rendering" at 120FPS.
The camera is at 240FPS (≧∇≦
bAlso they can render at 240 if they feel like it. I mean bomb the graphics.
Astral Dog
Member
Meh he is just basically saying he does'nt know anything