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Pachter: Wii U is Nintendo's Dreamcast
- Thread starter AzureNightmare
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TheExplodingHead
Banned
Good to see Pachter playing it safe again.
He will be wrong, again. The Wii U won't be anywhere near as successful as the Wii obviously, but I think it's in a great position timing wise and leading the next-gen cycle with software. The only thing that remains to be seen is if Nintendo can facilitate that step enough with it's own IP, and if it can get 3rd parties to really invest early.
He will be wrong, again. The Wii U won't be anywhere near as successful as the Wii obviously, but I think it's in a great position timing wise and leading the next-gen cycle with software. The only thing that remains to be seen is if Nintendo can facilitate that step enough with it's own IP, and if it can get 3rd parties to really invest early.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Ummm... I think you're missing your own point.
The GCN didn't exactly prosper, but it did survive.
fluffydelusions
Member
Didn't Patcher say he's only right about 2% of the time...
How? If it's only slightly more powerful than the current gen systems which are already very tired at this point, how can it keep up with a brand new gen of DX11, Unreal Engine 4, ect?
You can hear someone without listening to them.
But to answer your question seriously I don't know. If it was up to me mentioning his name would be bannable.
He really said that? Not a smart career-move as an analyst I think...
jump_button
Banned
he was wrong about the Wii and every other thing who keep giving him work
Cygnus X-1
Member
Sigh
*Sigh*
*Sigh*
He's still getting paid though. He's right about some things I guess.
Yes, because what Gamespot printed Miyamoto as saying was, "I don't know that we would be able to sit here and say that it's going to necessarily dramatically outperform the systems that are out now. It's part of the balance that we strike in terms of trying to find entertainment that is new and unique."
How the Escapist got, "Our next console isn't going to be as powerful as the stuff that's out right now," from the original quote, I don't know. If that's what you're going on, well then you've got nothing to go on. That was about as generic a quote that could be made about the power of the machine, and you can't pull anything out of it.
If you the specs of this thing, spill the beans then.
The DS wasn't around from 1990 to 2003.
Shigeru Miyamoto said it himself.
He's good with putting industry numbers together.
Understanding long-term cause and effect? Not so much.
It's pretty fair to say that WiiU could be Nintendo's next N64, but that sounds really retarded as a headline and we haven't seen anything indicating it yet. Dreamcast will never happen again in the forseeable future because it means a viable platform getting canned shortly before it breaks even just because the manufacturer runs out of petty cash; Nintendo is rolling in enough cash on hand to cover two Xbox or PS3-scale bombas, Sony is on uneven footing but would happily firesale their TV or audio business to keep gaming rolling that last year (and the Japanese government would bail them out if that wasn't enough), and MS's investors have never complained about strategic losses before so they're unlikely to start now.
Neuromancer
Member
I don't know, Wedbush Securities seems to like him since he's been working there since 1999. Can't be doing all that bad of a job there I would think.
Manmademan
Member
the GCN "survived", but lost nearly half the sales of its predecessor and even more marketshare, while the market as a whole expanded.
did nintendo make a profit on it? sure. Was that profit anywhere NEAR what they hoped to gain with it? not even close.
and that's just the GCN. we also saw large losses in sales going from SNES to N64, despite all of nintendo's traditional franchises (sans metroid) appearing on the console.
UberTag
Member
Pachter nonsense gets a special no-ban pass unlike all of those other erroneous resources on the web which fall under the ban list. My bet is that it's due to his entertainment value.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Because using hardware made 5 years after the 360 on processes made in the past couple of years is going to net you a noticeable improvement in graphical capabilities.
We've got a pretty good idea of the power in the WiiU, under most scenarios it would take Nintendo intentionally gimping the hardware going into to it to make it just a little more powerful. You're looking at a 2x-3x increase in just RAM capacity. By GPU potentially a 5x increase (if thinking in terms of flops).
Now it may not have the power of Fusion (though if rumors pan out closer to Fusion than Fusion is to PS4), but it should still be a fair clip ahead of either the PS3 or 360.
Steve Youngblood
Member
His trolling of game fanboys amuses them enough to keep him on the payroll.
But Wii relied more on Nintendo's first party output than any other Nintendo console before that. It may have had fancy motion controls and stuff as a selling point but that doesn't change the fact that most of the time Nintendo's own software was the sole reason why anyone bought the system.
It means he wants publicity, but reserves the right to completely 180 at any point in the future should his outlandish presumption be proven incorrect.
Satoru Iwata said the Wii graphics would make you say "wow".
People say lots of things.
Neuromancer
Member
We did say 'wow,' just not for the reason he thought we would.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Which is vastly different than your initial argument. There's nothing to disagree with here.
I was just saying if that was your argument at the outset, you should have argued it, instead of nebulously adding to it as people disagreed.
If you're going by the quote you posted, he never said what you (and about half the gaming press) think he said. He never made a definitive statement, and he gave no one any clues about the power of the machine. He said what he said. The statement, "I don't know that we would be able to sit here and say. . ." means jack shit. Couldn't be more meaningless and vague.
Manmademan
Member
let's be real here. Motion control gaming on the Wii got a phenomenal amount of press and interest from even non gaming outlets. It drew in non gamers with concepts like "wii sports" and "wii fit" that changed the definition of what gaming WAS. The market didn't care who made the software, it was the concept that sold.
we can see Kinect (sort of) doing the same thing right now. You think 20 million people are wild about the kinect software?
This is why it sold like gangbusters. Every franchise that showed up on the Wii was also present on the N64 and GCN which were beaten soundly by their competition.
My argument has not changed at all. My argument was that nintendo's first party software by itself cannot carry consoles, and the sales drops from SNES to GCN prove that- and they do.
Some people have tried to claim that Nintendo made a profit on the GCN, so it's a success, and I disagree with that. Since it's not enough in business just to "make a profit", you have to meet or exceed expectations- both internally and those of market analysts, and the GCN failed to do this, despite having the advantage of solid nintendo first party hardware.
edit:You can look at BlackBerry as comparable example. The constant bleeding of marketshare to iOS and android had analysts pegging it as a failure EVEN WHEN they were still profitable.
I'm not sure how much clearer I can make this.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
nextgeneration
Member
Nintendo doomed and will continued to be doomed. I used to like Pachter, but he continues to spew out outlandish comment after another.
Steve Youngblood
Member
He doesn't work in the games industry.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Stock price isn't going any lower. I'd better buy my shares soon. This is going to be awesome. I wonder if I'll triple my money this time!
jamesinclair
Banned
Pachter included this exclusive chart. Looks pretty well thought out, Id base my stock buying decisions on it.
Fine Ham Abounds
Member
Pachter pachtered the WiiU last night by saying the WiiU's gonna Dreamcast Nintendo. Speculation is now that perhaps Pachter has Dreamcasted, pachtering once too often, even when discussing pachter moreso than Pachter. Should the WiiU Dreamcast as well as Pachter pachters, this could signal that Sony could soon NeoGeo, and perhaps even the 360 could 3DO.
Skiesofwonder
Walruses, camels, bears, rabbits, tigers and badgers.
Sorry Michael, but Kevin Dent already out pach'd you with the same "analysis" at GDC.
Don't worry though, I'll make sure to remind you two of how awesome you are with a tweet for every million the Wii U sells past the 11M mark worldwide. Expect that to start 10-13 months after the Wii U release.
Don't worry though, I'll make sure to remind you two of how awesome you are with a tweet for every million the Wii U sells past the 11M mark worldwide. Expect that to start 10-13 months after the Wii U release.
Well he certainly seems to spend more time giving analysis on it than most people do playing games.
I think the problem is your definition of "carry a console" is different to everyone else's.
If Nintendo software did not "carry" the N64 or GC, those consoles would have been taken off the market prematurely.
If you want to concentrate on profit, does that mean the xbox and ps3 are massive failures because they incurred such big losses?.
DidntKnowJack
Member
The only issue I have with the Wii U is that it appears, at least at this point, as an incremental change in hardware. And that seems to be Nintendo's modus operandi of late. From the DS models to the their consoles - they haven't really been pushing the bleeding edge of technology. Aside from their alternate control schemes, of course.
So while it's very possible Pachter is wrong, I can see why some people would predict the Wii U floundering a bit.
So while it's very possible Pachter is wrong, I can see why some people would predict the Wii U floundering a bit.
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