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[ThisWreckage]

He's wrong. It won't be as popular as the Wii, but it's going to be successful.

 

[RkOwnage]

Lol @ the WiiU being considered NextGen, isn't it just slightly more powerful than the 360 and PS3? Imo, Nintendo is just launching into the current gen with the WiiU

 

[Boogybro]

Did Shenmue do Pachter by the Dreamcast, or did the Dreamcast Dreamcast the Shenmue franchise?

 

[AceBandage]

Lol @ the WiiU being considered NextGen, isn't it just slightly more powerful than the 360 and PS3? Imo, Nintendo is just launching into the current gen with the WiiU

No.

 

[fluffydelusions]

Lol @ the WiiU being considered NextGen, isn't it just slightly more powerful than the 360 and PS3? Imo, Nintendo is just launching into the current gen with the WiiU

No one outside of Nintendo knows the specs. People seem to forget Nintendo has always had more powerful machines than the competition minus the Wii.

 

[Kazerei]

I wrote a quick transcript.

Question (Vinicius Carvalho): Do you believe Nintendo is about to "Dreamcast" their selves in the next generation by releasing a premature console?

Answer (Michael Pachter): I don't think this is a premature console. I think that this is a really late-term console. I think this console should've been born two years ago or three years ago. I invite you guys to do a quick google search on Wii 2 and Pachter. I was calling for it in 2009 and then that didn't happen. So I was calling for it in 2010 and then that didn't happen. So now we're looking at 2012. Wow. Two or three years late, not premature, bad call there.

The reason that you're saying it's premature, I think you're really trying to suggest it's not going to sell well. And I think that if in fact it's a lot like an Xbox 360 in terms of graphics, frame rate, control scheme, then it's probably not going to sell well unless it's priced alot cheaper, and I don't think they're launching a console at $150. So yeah, I think they are about to Dreamcast themselves. I don't think Wii U is going to be as popular as probably Nintendo thinks it's going to be. The question is what does Nintendo do next. And I don't know the answer yet. Let's see how the Wii U sells. I'm not going to predict its demise until I know the pricing, the features, and when we know more about it, we'll have a better opinion.

 

[Berg]

Looks like Nintendo will survive, even if the WiiU turns out like the dreamcast.
$10 Billion IN THE BANK!

http://www.gamesradar.com/nintendo-doomed-not-likely-just-take-look-how-much-money-its-got-bank/

 

[angelfly]

Pachter will never learn.

 

[EvilMario]

I wrote a quick transcript.

It's not the worst statement he's ever made, but Pachter does himself no favors with recent comments and agreeing with and using the term 'Dreamcasting' themselves.

 

[Neuromancer]

I wrote a quick transcript.

Thanks this should be in the OP. He never actually said "WiiU is the Nintendo's Dreamcast" for one thing.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Can't say I disagree too much but as the 2nd or 3rd poster might have said, Nintendo games can sustain a platform any day. I don't see this as a primary platform again but another Wii/Gamecube situation in which I only care for Nintendo games. I am also not interested in the controller but it is a novel thing. I just won't be migrating (like anyone with a PS3 or 360) over to this. I want this for Nintendo games. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[H_Prestige]

No one outside of Nintendo knows the specs. People seem to forget Nintendo has always had more powerful machines than the competition minus the Wii.

And the DS. And 3DS. You know, all the recent stuff.

No chance in hell Wii U will be stronger than ps4 and 720.

 

[CrunchinJelly]

What will be the WiiU's Shenmue?

Will the WiiU get any Square or EA support?

 

[AceBandage]

So, he wanted Nintendo to stop selling their best selling console and focus on a new, expensive system, in 2009?
Still a fairly stupid statement.

 

[donny2112]

I wrote a quick transcript.

Thanks. Yeah, he's thinking that it'll be a current generation machine instead of a next generation machine. If it was going to be a current generation machine, then he would be correct. As it's not, then he would be incorrect. Pretty simple. Pachter even includes that condition of Wii U being a current generation console in his response.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Lol @ the WiiU being considered NextGen, isn't it just slightly more powerful than the 360 and PS3? Imo, Nintendo is just launching into the current gen with the WiiU

I already covered it once, but no. The early SDK parts were already more powerful than those two consoles, and that has about as much connection to final WiiU hardware as the G5 360 SDK's had with it.

Almost none.

And the DS. And 3DS. You know, all the recent stuff.

No chance in hell Wii U will be stronger than ps4 and 720.

I don't think anyone is arguing this. Also 3DS is much closer to Vita than you'd like to admit.

 

[Dennis]

 

[Kazerei]

Yeah it was sort of a loose remark. He doesn't think it's going to fail hard like the Dreamcast, but he thinks it will be less successful than the Wii, especially if it's underpowered compared to the PS4 and Xbox whatever.

 

[donny2112]

No chance .. Wii U will be stronger than ps4 and 720.

Completely agree. It just has to be able to run the same engines for easy porting for it to work out this generation for Nintendo.

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

Without reading this whole thread, I'm sure someone already pointed out how much he said the 3DS would die. Couldn't be more wrong.

 

[AceBandage]

Yeah it was sort of a loose remark. He doesn't think it's going to fail hard like the Dreamcast, but he thinks it will be less successful than the Wii, especially if it's underpowered compared to the PS4 and Xbox whatever.

Of course it'll be less successful than the Wii.
So will the PS4 and Nextbox.

 

[7threst]

Lol @ the WiiU being considered NextGen, isn't it just slightly more powerful than the 360 and PS3? Imo, Nintendo is just launching into the current gen with the WiiU

I never understood this... I'm probably an idealist or naive or something, but isn't a next generation something that happens when a follow-up is introduced? I don't think an increase in power screams "NextGen©" per se. And even if only an increase in power in the follow up console is considered next gen, isn't even the smallest increase in power considered next gen? Or is there some sort of benchmark of power that decides wheter a new console can or can't be considered next gen?

 

[VariantX]

No one outside of Nintendo knows the specs. People seem to forget Nintendo has always had more powerful machines than the competition minus the Wii.

Yeah, i don't seem to understand how people seem to act as if there were no other console generations before this one. It feels like trying to explain to some people who think that the earth is only a few thousand years old that dinosaurs existed for millions of years before mankind came along. Now, I wouldn't say that the machines were more powerful overall, but they were definately on par with the other machines they competed with during those previous generations.

 

[cakefoo]

I think that if in fact it’s a lot like an Xbox 360 in terms of graphics, frame rate and control scheme, then it’s probably not going to sell well unless it’s priced a lot cheaper, and I don’t think they’re launching the console at $150,

He makes it sound like it's just a Nintendo Xbox.

 

[Medalion]

So... Nintendo to go third party after Wii-U...

classic

 

[lenovox1]

And the DS. And 3DS. You know, all the recent stuff.

No chance in hell Wii U will be stronger than ps4 and 720.

And the Gameboy, and the Gameboy Color, and the Gameboy Advance.

Their handhelds have always been underpowered; I don't think that has much to do with their consoles.

 

[Fantastical]

Thanks this should be in the OP. He never actually said "WiiU is the Nintendo's Dreamcast" for one thing.

So yeah, I think they are about to Dreamcast themselves.

I mean... I guess he didn't say that Wii U is Nintendo's Dreamcast, but he does imply that here, right?

Without reading this whole thread, I'm sure someone already pointed out how much he said the 3DS would die. Couldn't be more wrong.

Well, initially he said 3DS was too cheap and that he thought it would sell like crazy. He later corrected that statement, but I remember watching a Pach Attack where he was pretty level-headed about it. I can't really remember any time he said the 3DS was doomed or anything, but maybe he did.

 

[Bagu]

I never understood this... I'm probably an idealist or naive or something, but isn't a next generation something that happens when a follow-up is introduced? I don't think an increase in power screams "NextGen©" per se.

Sir, logic is not allowed here.

 

[triggaz]

It's all about context guys come just go to gametrailers and watch the video damn.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I never understood this... I'm probably an idealist or naive or something, but isn't a next generation something that happens when a follow-up is introduced? I don't think an increase in power screams "NextGen©" per se.

This gets argued back and forth continuously.

And the only answer is yes. Both are a factor. The Wii was 1.5x a GCN. It released after making it the next generation Nintendo console release. It just barely made a jump versus the overly large jump of the other two.

 

[ismk]

Pachter, you silly goose, what kind of craziness will you say next time?

Sometimes I think this man is the troll of the gaming industry. Keeping on trolling, Pachter.

 

[Neuromancer]

I mean... I guess he didn't say that Wii U is Nintendo's Dreamcast, but he does imply that here, right?

Yeah but when you put someone's name, a colon, and then a statement, the idea generally is that that person said that thing. I imagine some of the responses in this thread are from people just going off the thread title and not reading what he actually said.

Without reading this whole thread, I'm sure someone already pointed out how much he said the 3DS would die. Couldn't be more wrong.

Actually he said the 3DS was going to do better than it actually did, he even said Nintendo should have raised the price. So yeah he was wrong but for a different reason.

 

[Para bailar La Bomba]

Thanks this should be in the OP. He never actually said "WiiU is the Nintendo's Dreamcast" for one thing.

I'm the last person on the planet to defend Pachter, but this article is a stitch up. He said nothing of the sort. The hilarious aspect about the GameTrailers segment was the fact he told viewers to google "Patcher+Wii 2 or Wii HD".

 

[Emitan]

Pachter: "I have absolutely no idea why the Dreamcast failed despite being a financial analyst."

 

[Christine]

This gets argued back and forth continuously.

And the only answer is yes. Both are a factor. The Wii was 1.5x a GCN. It released after making it the next generation Nintendo console release. It just barely made a jump versus the overly large jump of the other two.

Platform generations are defined by the software that's being sold at the time.

 

[StevieP]

Yeah it was sort of a loose remark. He doesn't think it's going to fail hard like the Dreamcast, but he thinks it will be less successful than the Wii, especially if it's underpowered compared to the PS4 and Xbox whatever.

Hardware power has never had anything to do with the success or failure of a system. It always comes down to software.

I never understood this... I'm probably an idealist or naive or something, but isn't a next generation something that happens when a follow-up is introduced? I don't think an increase in power screams "NextGen©" per se. And even if only an increase in power in the follow up console is considered next gen, isn't even the smallest increase in power considered next gen? Or is there some sort of benchmark of power that decides wheter a new console can or can't be considered next gen?

You are correct.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_video_game_consoles_(seventh_generation)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_video_game_consoles_(Eighth_generation)

Yeah, i don't seem to understand how people seem to act as if there were no other console generations before this one. It feels like trying to explain to some people who think that the earth is only a few thousand years old that dinosaurs existed for millions of years before mankind came along. Now, I wouldn't say that the machines were more powerful overall, but they were definately on par with the other machines they competed with during those previous generations.

Fly memory. 99% of GAF has a fly memory.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Platform generations are defined by the software that's being sold at the time.

I can also accept this answer.

 

[Jangocube]

Nintendo am doomed confirmed. 2012 was FINALLY the year.

 

[Terrell]

I hope he's right

Glad to see who Pachter's target audience is now.

I think it means a year or two of moderate success before it's highly powered rival(s) show up to lay the smack down, steal all of its 3rd party support, and outsell it 10:1.

Dreamcast's 3rd-party support wasn't even stolen, it LEFT. EA Sports refusing to make content for it was the first shots fired. And EA makes content for EVERYTHING.

The expression being "dreamcasted" refer to the collapse of a system caused just by the hype of a emerging competing platform.
Or if you will a system so weak (I'm not talking about specs) that fade away soon after release without the ability to compete meaningfully against rival platforms.

I think everyone forgets what actually killed the Dreamcast. It wasn't one singular nail in the coffin, but multiple ones at the same time:

1) Sega's poor financial situation after the triple-threat of failures that were Sega CD, 32X and Saturn, with Saturn doing the most damage to them financially. This left Sega in an unsustainable financial situation in an industry full of sales volatility.

2) The (undue) hype surrounding PlayStation 2 and how much of a tech powerhouse it supposedly was due to "Emotion Engine", making promises that were never delivered upon. By the time any of us caught onto that fact, Sega was already closing up shop.

3) 3rd-parties, with few exceptions, refusing to take a risk on another Sega platform after the Saturn's miserable success, when PlayStation 2 was around the corner. See: EA Sports, Konami, etc. With no ability to outlast the PS2 hype, 3rd-parties felt justified in their decision to abandon it.

ALL THREE of these things killed Sega's hardware ventures.

Nintendo doesn't have to worry about problem #1, problem #2 was WOEFULLY apparent that Sony would outclass Nintendo in hardware with the Wii after E3 2006, and Nintendo suffered problem #3 but still outlasted it, putting 3rd-parties in a position where they were forced to leave money on the table because they bet on HD games, an investment they couldn't back down from.

Not even the Vita is doing as badly as the Dreamcast ...

I'll be damned if it's not trying to, though.

 

[Jeff-DSA]

Pachter makes himself into a bit more of a joke every time he does these interviews. I mean, I think he's a likable guy, but he's HORRIBLE when it comes to predicting these things. He also makes no secret that his predictions in the gaming space have everything to do with his tastes, and not anything to do with the buying audience's tastes that he's supposed to be evaluating.

 

[Osietra]

Pachters abdomen spins those soft silken threads of sagacity, weaving his web of financial perspicacity, who will fall into his deadly lair? Blah blah blah blah wii u blah blah dreamcast.

 

[To Far Away Times]

Nintendo am doomed confirmed. 2012 was FINALLY the year.

Well we're all doomed this year, you know, with the Mayan calendar thing and all that...

 

[Mortrialus]

Has Pachter ever been right about anything? Like, can anyone point to a prediction he has made that came true?

 

[captmcblack]

Wasn't the GameCube already Nintendo's "Dreamcast"?

And didn't they make gobs of money with it and still move > 30M worldwide, even though it was a "failure"?

And didn't they respond in 2006 with the Wii - a console that is essentially Nintendo's new NES in terms of spectacular success?

OCCUPY PACHTER

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

No one outside of Nintendo knows the specs. People seem to forget Nintendo has always had more powerful machines than the competition minus the Wii.

NDS was less powerful than the PSP, and 3DS is less powerful than the Vita.

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

Well, initially he said 3DS was too cheap and that he thought it would sell like crazy. He later corrected that statement, but I remember watching a Pach Attack where he was pretty level-headed about it. I can't really remember any time he said the 3DS was doomed or anything, but maybe he did.

It was on a Giant Bombcast that he was on. He was saying his kids wanted iPhones,s so he sees the 3DS being doomed.

 

[Durante]

I don't think anyone is arguing this. Also 3DS is much closer to Vita than you'd like to admit.

I'd bet any amount you care to name that the Vita <-> 3DS power gap is much larger than the WiiU <-> PS360 one will be.

 

[K' Dash]

Is the Xbox 360 the second coming of the Sega Dreamcast?



We've been thru this...

 

[Lambtron]

If the Wii U is half as awesome as Dreamcast, I wouldn't need any other consoles next gen.

 

[ivysaur12]

I get skeptical about anyone trying to draw Firm Conclusions (good or bad) when info is still so scarce).

Which is why this is a non-starter of a comparison at this point.