Phil Spencer: The Xbox business will become ‘untenable’ if it remains ‘irrelevant’ on mobile.

Bernkastel

Ask me about my fanboy energy!
Only reason why Nintendo does not need to do this is because budget for their first-party games is lower than Sony/Microsoft and also because Switch is monster success after WiiU's failure. Also, Nintendo is tapping into previously untapped revenue streams like multiplayer paid gate. But they are also tipping their toes into mobile gaming.
They are definitely not just tipping their toes anymore.
 

Godot25

Member
You guys have been saying the same thing since 2013, Game Pass just became the new ammo for this argument. As mentioned in this very page, compared to other two console manufacturers Microsoft is 6-7 years late to the free to play mobile gaming market. So are they all in "transitioning phase" to abandon their platform because they are "gambling with the mobile market". Somehow, the writing has always been the wall that Microsoft close Xbox, instead they just keep expanding.
Funny that you are trying to find argument for defending ZhugeX's deleted tweet of Microsoft decreasing Xbox first party investment when the reverse happened. There are no receipts to any of these claims you make just more "muh Game Pass" essays.
Yup
Xbox One reveal - "Microsoft will leave console business"
2014 - Mojang acquisition for peanuts (literally)
"Microsoft will leave console business"
2017 - Game Pass
"Microsoft will leave console business"
2018 - all first party games Day One in Game Pass
"Game Pass is not sustainable"
2020 - Microsoft bought Bethesda for 7,5 billion
"Game Pass is not sustainable, but they need to keep Bethesda games multiplatform to earn that money back"
2022 - Microsoft bought Activision Blizzard for 68,7 billion and meanwhile making all Bethesda games exclusives
"This consolidation is pretty worrying. Microsoft can't just throw money around to force their way into gaming"

It's funny, because it seems like some people are flip-flopping between "Xbox has no games" to "Xbox is monopoly" while claiming that they spend 68,7 billion just to leave console business, just because they want to have a presence in mobile which is literally what every big publisher is doing including Sony. Take-Two bough Zynga. EA bought several mobile gaming studios. Sony bought mobile gaming studio, while their Bungie has huge plans for going into smartphone gaming business.
 
rather weird to say GP is sustainable and than say the business as a whole is only sustainable if it expands to a field it is not currently in.

I am not even opposed to MS Sony Nintendo and whoever doing more on mobile with their IPs and original mobile stuff, or proper handhelds, but I have yet to see something on actual mobile (ie phones, more than cut the rope) that would make me also be part of that target group.
 
What The Hell Just Happened Reaction GIF

Call of Booty
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
He saw Sony plan, and got scared a bit.

Even with a company like Sony, who are having success are going after mobile and live service market.

That should tell us something about the current console model.
But....Sony has been into mobile gaming for years. Fan fact: the Vita had a mobile games store. Playstation Mobile was a thing that went thru several revamps over the years. They are just expanding and going bigger with it vs the Sackboy Run type games.

Like others said, MS is just late to the party on this. But many of us said while everyone is so focused on CoD and the AB part of the deal, MS were probably absolutely giddy about King.

I will say this tho....for MS its probably a good thing they stopped making smartphones, because the King part of the deal would be under even more scrutiny.

They are definitely not just tipping their toes anymore.

Only mobile game I ever paid for or used any money on at all was Super Mario Run . . . and I still haven't bothered to finish it.

Yup.

And it was funny when Nintendo started getting into mobile gaming some ppl were saying ok Sony, your turn....when Sony was doing mobile gaming long before Nintendo.
 

feynoob

Member
But....Sony has been into mobile gaming for years. Fan fact: the Vita had a mobile games store. Playstation Mobile was a thing that went thru several revamps over the years. They are just expanding and going bigger with it vs the Sackboy Run type games.

Like others said, MS is just late to the party on this. But many of us said while everyone is so focused on CoD and the AB part of the deal, MS were probably absolutely giddy about King.

I will say this tho....for MS its probably a good thing they stopped making smartphones, because the King part of the deal would be under even more scrutiny.





Yup.

And it was funny when Nintendo started getting into mobile gaming some ppl were saying ok Sony, your turn....when Sony was doing mobile gaming long before Nintendo.
Sony only had fate.
Now they are on full mode investment.
 

Bernkastel

Ask me about my fanboy energy!
Sony only had fate.
Now they are on full mode investment.
Yup.

And it was funny when Nintendo started getting into mobile gaming some ppl were saying ok Sony, your turn....when Sony was doing mobile gaming long before Nintendo.
We are specifically talking about free to play online mobile games here, otherwise we would be talking about some casual games MS published for Windows Phone. Nintendo entered by licensing Pokemon to Niantic for Pokemon Go and that was huge. Henceforth, they have self published mobile titles.
And the more recent stuffs like Pokemon Unite. As for Aniplex, while Fate was the first one, they have an entire division to publish mobile titles out of anime IPs(which mostly factored into the Kadokawa deal by them and Tencent)
 
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Bernkastel

Ask me about my fanboy energy!
He thinks the worst thing that can happen to Xbox is apathy. So he’s out there putting the brand in the news, and because it’s going through a massive drought he’s working overtime.
Ever since the deal, you have been fighting this war overtime. I know the times are hard for you, but keep strong warrior.
 

spons

Gold Member
That's what you get when your targets are unrealistic. I mean, 3 billion gamers? Come on. Remove a zero from that number and even that is most likely unobtainable for the Xbox brand.
 

feynoob

Member
We are specifically talking about free to play online mobile games here, otherwise we would be talking about some casual games MS published for Windows Phone. Nintendo entered by licensing Pokemon to Niantic for Pokemon Go and that was huge. Henceforth, they have self published mobile titles.
As for Aniplex, while Fate was the first one, they have an entire division to publish mobile titles out of anime IPs(which mostly factored into the Kadokawa deal by them and Tencent)
Isn't most of those games Japanese only?
 

Kiraly

Member
I also remember people who stated what Spencer has been talking about lately being labeled a "fanboy" when the writing has been on the wall since the Xbox One reveal.

MS is in a tough spot. They are far from a direct competitor to both Sony and Nintendo in the traditional sense.
So the gambled on GamePass, announcing it as the second coming of Jesus.
Recently, they came out saying GamePass isn't sustainable (which was obvious from the beginning).

Now they have to gamble on the mobile market.

They're pretty clueless about the gaming-space, really.

I honestly don't see how this gen isn't a transitional phase for MS to quitting competing with Sony mainly (and Nintendo indirectly) and becoming a 3rd party publisher.

Just release Xbox 1st party titles on all competing platforms, as well as GamePass, remove the XBL-requirement and everybody will win, incl gamers.
People spend 16 billion a year on the Xbox brand and broke ass fanboys desperate to play their games here writing fanfiction to fantasize about them going third party lmfaooooo
 

The_Mike

Member
Wasn't this the whole point of game pass? So that you can play your games on any screen.

Problem is the casual mobile base doesn't really care for complicated controller based games.
Problem is complicated controller based games are trash on mobile unless you plug a controller into it.
 

Bernkastel

Ask me about my fanboy energy!
Isn't most of those games Japanese only?
The newer Aniplex titles yes. But the older ones have mostly been released World Wide. A thing about Asian mobile game publishers is that they rarely do simultaneous global releases, they will release the games locally and slowly roll it out world wide. Most games are not that successful, so it does not justify funding a English localization. Most of the time they also make more money locally(because Chinese, Japanese and Koreans can empty their wallet for these games like no one else would dare).
Those drooling ove those ass shot gifs from Shift Up's Nikke may look up Last Origin, it has not yet been localized outside of South Korean or Japan.
 
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Shut0wen

Member
Crazy the amount of negative comments, people dont understand that games cost a shit ton, better chance making a game that costs 100k and make billions of profit, nintendo seen the market years ago even sony is creating new studios just for this plus theres millions to be made in asian market where its either mobile games or mobas
 

Ozriel

Member
Nintendo and Sony are both trajecting upwards.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Microsoft’s gaming revenue has also been ticking upwards since 2017.

But that’s really not what the post you commented on was about.

What Phil is saying is that mobile is growing so rapidly that console share as a portion of the overall pie is shrinking. Everyone in console is part of that shrinking segment of the overall gaming pie chart.

Mobile is projected to grow to $300+ billion by 2030.
 

reksveks

Member
They have absolutely no chance and it's a red herring in the deal. Even on PC other game specific stores struggle against Steam. They have absolutely no chance competing against the Apple App store or Google Play on mobile.
I think we need to consider what success criteria looks like, a 5% take of mobile gaming revenue is 4.5bn usd on a year in net rev, right?

Could be 720m in profits.
 

M16

Member
do people really think they opened the war chest and plunked down ~$100 billion in the last few years for console wars? its much bigger than that
what they're doing is getting ready for when mobile app stores are going to be decoupled from the OS. this is happening soon.
they learned their lesson from before of not putting the cart before the horse(mobile os). they will get back into mobile by building their platform methodically this time.
 

sainraja

Member
Mobile has been big for a while now. It's not a recent trend — if it is, color me surprised. Sony/Microsoft should have focused on mobile long ago but I suppose it is never too late.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Mobile has been big for a while now. It's not a recent trend — if it is, color me surprised. Sony/Microsoft should have focused on mobile long ago but I suppose it is never too late.
Sony had Fate for years. And it continues to be a revenue cow.

Mobile is very hit or miss, for every Fate or Candy Crush... there are thousands upon thousands of bomba stinkers.
 

Raven77

Member
Why is it "pulling more funds from console games" and "making bad mobile games" and leading to "obvious path to failure"? Why would not it help there own console business?

If they are, then why are they investing so much in to mobile like Pokemon Unite or Fate Grand Order. By your logic should not it be Xbox that should have entered mobile first, since there console business. They stayed out of the free to play online mobile market the longest.

People have been saying they will close down Xbox since forever.
I remember when ZhugeX said Microsoft will reduce investment to first party projects for Xbox, and next year Microsoft announced buying Ninja Theory and other devs.

It's basic business. Microsoft has a limited amount of money to put towards production. And in no way did I even insinuate that they were "closing Xbox".

For example:

If no mobile focus, 2 Billion dollars goes towards console development and console games development, Gamepass improvements, etc, etc.

With a mobile focus:

1.2 Billion goes towards everything console games related above.

800 Million goes towards mobile games, development, studio buyouts, etc.

If you are not a mobile gamer, do you see how this is bad?
 
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The software already in place what isn't is the tech needed to get the data to and from the server to and from the device fast enough without noticeable issues.
 

Clear

Member
MS's strategy has been pretty obvious for a while; Their goal is to make their service offerings act as a unifying nexus for console, PC, and mobile. In many respects its just an evolution of their TV focussed strategy for Xbox one, because ultimately its all about the network effect where product visibility is used to drive commerce.

In simple terms its about unifying disparate markets under a single monetization umbrella so success and ideally dominance in one category drives the same result for all. Essentially they piggy-back of off marketshare from one business to uplift all.

The Amazon model is a good analog as if you consider that Bezos' company started out purely as an online bookseller, then branched out into other categories until we end up with the universal-product behemoth we have today. Nowadays you might go on Amazon to buy a book, but while you're there you get offered movies, and games, and hardware and houseware... yada yada.

The real power of this is that they get to prioritize which products get presented most prominently to the consumer in each category, allowing them to cut favourable deals for themselves with friendly partners and suppress competing products from competitors.

Its all about the power of storefront control when you have an addressable market of billions. And that is what MS are aiming for.
 
You guys have been saying the same thing since 2013, Game Pass just became the new ammo for this argument. As mentioned in this very page, compared to other two console manufacturers Microsoft is 6-7 years late to the free to play mobile gaming market. So are they all in "transitioning phase" to abandon their platform because they are "gambling with the mobile market". Somehow, the writing has always been the wall that Microsoft close Xbox, instead they just keep expanding.
Funny that you are trying to find argument for defending ZhugeX's deleted tweet of Microsoft decreasing Xbox first party investment when the reverse happened. There are no receipts to any of these claims you make just more "muh Game Pass" essays.
The writing has been on the wall. MS just has deep pockets.

Xbox is almost non-existent outside of the US and UK and even now they're struggling over there.
That's what happens when you keep talking about games coming out "next year" and not delivering or just flatput cancelling projects.

And GamePass only became ammo after MS started using it as such pre-launch.
They completely misread the market, thinking they could reach billions with a streaming-service, when even tv streaming-services are struggling to retain users.

The fact that Spencer himself comes out stating that Xbox will become 'untenable' without the mobile market, speaks volumes.
Especially coupled with the fact that Spencer stated that the f2p-model (or whatever it was that he talked about recently) is the future.
 

feynoob

Member
Fair enough, misread.

GamePass is profitable for them, but a subscription model is not the future.

Still, that's not what they initially implied pre-launch.
Current market, subscription works well. You can manage to get $10 from people, than $60.
It also allows you to tap alot of userbase, if you advertise it very well.

The fact that gamepass is like 25m in 4 years shows that.

The problem is content. You need to provide as much content as you can to keep people engaged to your service
 
Current market, subscription works well. You can manage to get $10 from people, than $60.
It also allows you to tap alot of userbase, if you advertise it very well.

The fact that gamepass is like 25m in 4 years shows that.

The problem is content. You need to provide as much content as you can to keep people engaged to your service
And that’s exactly why GamePass or gaming streaming-services won't be the future.

It's already hard to justify subscriptions for tv streaming, because of all the trash they offer.

Imagine gaming, with a far smaller audience.
 

93xfan

Member
Some data



You can see the growth trends for mobile significantly outstrips console and PC. Consoles spiked in 2020 but seems to be flattening post COVID.

And if projections are correct…



Mobile growing to $338bn by 2030 will leave other platforms as relatively niche performers if trends remain flat.

Sony’s well ahead of MS in the mobile game. Tencent is far ahead of everyone else.
Phil is playing catch up
I’ve yet to meet anyone that puts money into that ecosystem. Who are these people?

Also, imagine if a film director you respect said they need to focus on Tik Tok videos to be successful. While maybe true, it’s unfortunate.
 

Ozriel

Member
Also, imagine if a film director you respect said they need to focus on Tik Tok videos to be successful. While maybe true, it’s unfortunate.

Terrible analogy.

“I need to have a foothold in tiktok to reach young viewers” is dramatically different from “I need to drop my regular movies and focus on Tiktok”.
 

bitbydeath

Gold Member
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Microsoft’s gaming revenue has also been ticking upwards since 2017.

But that’s really not what the post you commented on was about.

What Phil is saying is that mobile is growing so rapidly that console share as a portion of the overall pie is shrinking. Everyone in console is part of that shrinking segment of the overall gaming pie chart.

Mobile is projected to grow to $300+ billion by 2030.
The console segment itself is growing though, at least for Nintendo and Sony. Nothing shrinking about it, let’s not lump MS in with the others here.
 
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feynoob

Member
And that’s exactly why GamePass or gaming streaming-services won't be the future.

It's already hard to justify subscriptions for tv streaming, because of all the trash they offer.

Imagine gaming, with a far smaller audience.
Except games aren't movies, where you can just binge play them.

That 1 benefit for gaming subscription.
 

Ozriel

Member
The console segment itself is growing though, at least for Nintendo and Sony. Nothing shrinking about it, let’s not lump MS in with the others here.


Again, a segment can grow, but if it's growing much slower than other segments, it'll occupy a relatively smaller proportion of the overall pie.

The argument is that console revenue is growing, but growing much slower than Mobile. Leading to an overall smaller share of the gaming revenue by 2030.


Have you never worked with pie charts before? Or Fractions?
 
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bitbydeath

Gold Member
Again, a segment can grow, but if it's growing much slower than other segments, it'll occupy a relatively smaller proportion of the overall pie.

The argument is that console revenue is growing, but growing much slower than Mobile. Leading to an overall smaller share of the gaming revenue by 2030.


Have you never worked with pie charts before? Or Fractions?
Phil’s comment says the console (Xbox) is staying relatively flat, this statement isn’t in comparison to mobiles.

console stays relatively flat as a business, same thing with PC.

The other statement of it shrinking is the comparison you’re referring.

As a percent of the overall gaming business, the console business is shrinking

This is an Xbox exclusive.
 

Bernkastel

Ask me about my fanboy energy!
The writing has been on the wall. MS just has deep pockets.

Xbox is almost non-existent outside of the US and UK and even now they're struggling over there.
That's what happens when you keep talking about games coming out "next year" and not delivering or just flatput cancelling projects.

And GamePass only became ammo after MS started using it as such pre-launch.
They completely misread the market, thinking they could reach billions with a streaming-service, when even tv streaming-services are struggling to retain users.

The fact that Spencer himself comes out stating that Xbox will become 'untenable' without the mobile market, speaks volumes.
Especially coupled with the fact that Spencer stated that the f2p-model (or whatever it was that he talked about recently) is the future.
If the writing has been on the wall for 9 years with no progress to the actual prophesies of the wall, maybe we need to check the people seeing these "writings on the wall" first.
t's basic business. Microsoft has a limited amount of money to put towards production. And in no way did I even insinuate that they were "closing Xbox".

For example:

If no mobile focus, 2 Billion dollars goes towards console development and console games development, Gamepass improvements, etc, etc.

With a mobile focus:

1.2 Billion goes towards everything console games related above.

800 Million goes towards mobile games, development, studio buyouts, etc.

If you are not a mobile gamer, do you see how this is bad?
You do realize that ActiBliz's mobile games make more money than their PC/console titles with much lower investment? Why would they need to take funds from the Xbox/Bethesda first party division? You are acting like ActiBliz revenue suddenly disappeared and the entire gaming division has to run on Xbox/Bethesda division revenue. How are any of those claims "basic business"?
Reading shit like this make me feel so great to not invest on Xbox.
Yeah, it makes you want to not invest on Xbox who just started investing in mobile and instead wants to make you want to invest on other platforms who have been investing on mobile for 7 years and way too deep into it.
 
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