Yup. It's a washout bellweather, not an actual swing state.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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I could see a state like Minnesota somewhow being trump friendly in 2020, but it's questionable if he would even win VA at this point in 2020. The only way he wins virgina at this point if turnout dramatically drops off in northern virgina for the democrats and southern virgina turns out in high numbers for trump.
Oh you mean the state that doesn't have Arlington county but had voter suppression
whyamihere
Banned
There are no voter ID laws in Pennsylvania. Hillary lost it all on her own.
The issue with PA is that there's still some low-hanging fruit for the GOP in the form of socially conservative union Dems. PA's backslide to a swing state was built on old school Democrats wandering off. Though the red parts of the state are definitely in decline population wise, there's still room for the GOP to work within that decline.
Because of Pittsburgh and Philly being growing regions nowadays, though, the state shouldn't go full red at any point now or in the long term.
Because of Pittsburgh and Philly being growing regions nowadays, though, the state shouldn't go full red at any point now or in the long term.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I feel like this is why he's doing his Netflix show.
whyamihere
Banned
Unless the red parts get redder. Which, they could!
(I foresee that PA will be a closely contested state for the near future)
VendettaRed07
Member
Think Hillary probably loses Virginia without Kaine on the ticket. Losing Pennsylvania but winning Virginia is too weird
whyamihere
Banned
This I doubt. Colorado and Virginia were always going to be her best swing states. And iirc the non-college whites in PA are a far higher % than VA. And VA is more diverse.
Nah. I think she would have still won it by a decent margin without Kaine on the ticket. Trump weakest demographics was college educated voters and minorities.The state has a lot of college educated voters and minorities.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Kaine didn't give Hillary 5% of the vote in VA
The red/blue mix in the red parts tend to be built on small towns that have blue populations. Places like Wilkes-Barre, Altoona, Aliquippa, and New Castle all have sizeable black communities.
Though like i said, there's definitely room for growth in the white working class.
VendettaRed07
Member
They will if Dems say Rural America is gone and expect suburbs and cities to carry them.
Banking on that is a terrible bet. Especially if they pull a Trump and Dump and nominate a more moderate republican again. Will immediately erode any improvements made in there
balladofwindfishes
Member
A moderate Republican wouldn't bring the racists out of the woodwork to vote.
VendettaRed07
Member
I suppose so. Guess that makes sense how Rubio managed to win Virginia in the GOP primary then
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Eh
Virginia isn't that similar to Pennsylvania at all. The Appalachian part of the state is very small (and was already redder than Pennsylvania's, I think) and there isn't really any sort of equivalent place like Erie or Scranton.
Which isn't to say Viriginia is 100% For Sure Never Going To Go Red Again Ever (though that's a far less ridiculous assumption than the "Nevada is a blue state now" comments) but I wouldn't link it as being similar to Pennsylvania, even though the two are close geographically. I also just don't think anyone really cares about home state VPs.
whyamihere
Banned
Rubio lost Virginia in the primary.
I wouldn't be to sure about NV right now. If I recall hilary did worse or about equal to her national popular vote margin there.
No, she was winning it easily either way. Hillary beat Sanders here, Northam beat Pierello easily, etc. It's the example that we're looking to in the "Sunbelt states" where a diverse, growing, highly educated urban/suburban population drags the state into the future.
Clinton did not need Kaine in order to win VA and it's one of many reasons why that pick was a mistake.
And to be clear on this, this isn't just immigrants- VA is 20% black.
VendettaRed07
Member
But they'll immediately bring back a lot of the suburban "family values" voters in. Maybe they'll even be motivated to turn out after all this Trump nonsense. Rural areas won't turn out in high numbers perhaps but they'll still be incredibly red if not more if Democrats don't try to reach out and limit the damage
Nevada also has a very high amount of non-college educated whites. It was prime for the picking in 2016 considering that was Trump's biggest base and he couldn't do it. It doesn't exactly bode well for the GOP in the future there.
Obviously that doesn't mean it won't flip, but it's more lean-blue than the other three to me right now.
whyamihere
Banned
Nevada is a mini Florida. There's no reason to think it won't be a swing state for some time to come.
VendettaRed07
Member
Oh whoops
What state did he win then? Could have sworn that was the one place he got
whyamihere
Banned
Minnesota, DC, Puerto Rico
balladofwindfishes
Member
Suburban "family values" voters don't matter. They didn't matter to Romney, and they certainly didn't matter to Clinton.
Rural voters >>>>>>>>>>> random suburban soccer moms that can stomach a vote for Clinton because Trump said naughty words on TV
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
this post honestly makes me less confident than I was before reading it
They're two sides of the same coin. A strong Hispanic turnout in Nevada can counter the rural white vote while the exact opposite is true in Florida as we saw this year from all the Confederates in the Panhandle showing up out of nowhere.
whyamihere
Banned
I think Democrats need to focus on the states that get them to 270 electoral votes.
CALIFORNIA HERE WE COME
VendettaRed07
Member
They didn't matter to Romney because Obama actually did what he needed to do to try and limit the damage in areas he wasn't demographically favorable in. Had he not parked his ass in nowhere Iowa, maybe he doesn't win. Iirc he pointed that out in one of his last press conferences after Hillary lost.
whyamihere
Banned
Exactly. But both of them strike a delicate balance. Like I don't really see any federal election in either state decided by more than a handful of points anytime in the near future. Their cocktail of demographics give both parties a high floor and a low ceiling.
But if trump is still on the ticket in 2020 I could see both states(especially Nevada) swinging pretty democratic if nothing changes at this point or things get worse for him.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
It's called "which 19 of yall will help me boot this fucker? I get that and I can talk Ryan into letting Pelosi's bill on the floor. ... Nah, Elaine's fine with it. Hell, she said I'd be doing her a favor."
Anything less is delaying the inevitable, and for him and his GOP buddies, this breaking during 2018, with more damage to them and the country.
Founder of Fusion GPS, the company that hired Christopher Steele >>
https://twitter.com/tomlobianco/status/900138361641459713
There is absolutely no early voting in pa and absentee voting is impossible to get, they are backwards as fuck there.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Well that's... a lot of hours.
We are stuck in the dark ages and it's never gonna change. Old state is old.
whyamihere
Banned
Sure. There are other states Hillary was able to win with more stringent voting laws.
Maybe it wasn't the laws, maybe it was the candidate that lost Pennsylvania.
Futurevoid
Member
......and by a ludicrously small margin at that. I'd have to look but the African American vote turnout was down from 2012 in PA, I believe. Especially in key counties in Philly, no?
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Oregon :')
Why
Oregon :')
Spoiled Milk
Banned
I don't believe it's real, it has to be a joke. It has to be.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I can buy the heritage argument from some Southerners I know around here, but if you're in fucking Oregon, you don't really have a good argument for flying that shit.
And as for Virginia, I think over a few decades, it could end up being a reverse Southern state where it mostly goes blue in statewide elections, but where Republicans have a very high floor for their vote. VA will never be CA, but it could end up better than most rural places.
And as for Virginia, I think over a few decades, it could end up being a reverse Southern state where it mostly goes blue in statewide elections, but where Republicans have a very high floor for their vote. VA will never be CA, but it could end up better than most rural places.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Oregon used to ban black people from emigrating there
Isn't Oregon a liberal paradise?
They love liberals unless they're from Cali lately
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