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[Memorabilia]

Yeh I've seen that as I use TPU but it's heavily skewed towards MS/Xbox as it's obviously a PC site and majority NA-based traffic.

IGN's is the best barometer in terms of demographic as it's console-centric and full of casuals. It's the biggest gaming website by far still.

I think the split will be 2.5:1 this gen or even more heavily skewed to PS5 and thats ok as MS can make money from Gamepass with a much smaller install base.

There's no way to prove that TPU is "heavily skewed" one way or the other any more than it would be feasible to discount the IGN poll as being "Sony biased" for some reason. Both polls are legitimate barometers of where things stand as is the AndroidAuthority (perhaps that one is skewed to Sony because, erm, Sony uses a Linux OS variant and makes Android OS phones? Joking. But this is as silly as your dismissing the TPU poll for similar reasons). The sample sizes of all (3) of those polls are far too large to dismiss any of them as "outliers". Likewise with the techspot poll which had about 35k respondents at last check before it was pulled. It showed similar results to the TPU poll, with a 50.5% XseX vs 49.5% PS5 split.

There was also a large Twitter poll (with 10s of thousands of responses IIRC) in March which showed an advantage for XseX. By your metric, that is about as "casual" an audience as it gets. I'll see if I can dig a t up and post it here.

On a side note, polls by far have their greatest predictive value when we do serial polling and look at trend lines. Far moreso than aggregate polling, for example, because individual polls are merely snapshots frozen in time. But when we look at serial polls we begin to see a reliable picture with strong predictive value. So, the value of combining the polls we have at our disposal - each of them basically large "snapshots" - is limited...but still far greater than anything else we have at our disposal.

I'm not saying you're wrong, by the way, about the possibility of a 2.5:1 eventual sales ratio. What I am saying is the same thing I've been saying all along in this thread - that any tiny GAF poll on this topic is less than useless by virtue of being conducted in a heavily biased, non random sampled population of extremely small size. The 60%-10% results here are ridiculous vs the much larger polls which even in the IGN "worst case" show far more friendly splits to XseX.

In the end, I think sales may end up being more like 2:1 globally (67-33%) and around 1.5:1 (60-40%) in the states. Both of us can speculate of course. The difference is what we allow as guidance to inform our speculation. I choose to eliminate bias.

 

[Memorabilia]

I would say those are good numbers for Xbox at this stage, having not even shown a game running on the system.

This forum is horribly biased though. Those IGN numbers are more realistic.

Yup on both counts. That IGN poll was conducted July 6th.

There are two other current, active large polls that I know of:

1) AndroidAuthority with ~12k votes and a 62% PS5 -33% XseX split (with 5% choosing "other" comprised of Switch/PC).

2) Techpowerup with ~40k votes and a 51% XseX - 49% PS5 split.

A couple others to note:

*Techspot recently took down a large poll with ~35k votes and 50.5% XseX - 49.5% PS5 split. No word on if it will be put back up or not for active voting.

*there was a large Twitter poll back in March that also showed an advantage for XseX. As I told Coulomb_Barrier, I'll see if I can find it and post it here.

The upshot: this GAF poll is worthless. Several large polls show a much more even split and even in the worst case large poll that we know of (IGN), it's a much different situation than what Sony GAF would like to believe.

 

[Psykodad]

Really? On this forum?

Everywhere, except Xbox.com

Hardware sales-wise, MS would be lucky to see their installbase stagnate.
That's their best-case scenario.

They'll probably lose installbase again, but gain GamePass subs.

 

[Hendrick's]

Everywhere, except Xbox.com

Hardware sales-wise, MS would be lucky to see their installbase stagnate.
That's their best-case scenario.

They'll probably lose installbase again, but gain GamePass subs.

A lot of you will be disappointed when Xbox continues to be a successful brand. Not sure why so many get off on the idea of them failing, but the facts don't support the sentiment.

 

[Psykodad]

A lot of you will be disappointed when Xbox continues to be a successful brand. Not sure why so many get off on the idea of them failing, but the facts don't support the sentiment.

I never said Xbox can't be a successfull brand.
I'm saying their consoles are nearing a dead end.

They won't sell over 50M next-gen, especially not with their 1st party output lagging behind 2 years minimum.
Maaaaybe Forza late 2021 earliest. And even that is iffy.

Most likely scenario is them selling 40M at best by the end of next gen.
If they don't throw in the towel mid-gen.

 

[Hobbygaming]

Thts cool. I thoroughly enjoyed my ps4 at launch even with just a few games like Infamous, Shadow Fall and Drive Club after. The tech and the ftp games held me over good.

You give me just one of these four at launch, GT, Spiderman, Ratchet or Horizon with one or two third party and I'm a step ahead ps4 launch and very happy. Plus not to mention I have psvr which is bc and I'm dying to see if the games are enhanced

Same here. We're already getting Spider-man, Kena, and Astro's Playroom at launch. This is great IMO. Add any one of these: Lost Soul Aside, Returnal, Demon Souls, Ratchet and Clank or Gran Turismo 7 and I'm in gaming heaven

 

[Humdinger]

If Ratchet & Clank turns out to be a release title, that might get me to switch from "neither" to PS5. I'm playing through the PS4 Ratchet game right now and enjoying it a lot. I seem to enjoy these types of games more now that I'm an old coot.

 

[Derktron]

Xbox showed me that Gamepass and Xcloud is where it’s at. Especially when you still have a capable PC to run some games. I’ll go with PS5.

 

[Elektro Demon]

None right now. At least, not on launch day. I'm happy with my PC but I'll get a ps5 somewhere down the line just for exclusive games.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

There's no way to prove that TPU is "heavily skewed" one way or the other any more than it would be feasible to discount the IGN poll as being "Sony biased" for some reason. Both polls are legitimate barometers of where things stand as is the AndroidAuthority (perhaps that one is skewed to Sony because, erm, Sony uses a Linux OS variant and makes Android OS phones? Joking. But this is as silly as your dismissing the TPU poll for similar reasons). The sample sizes of all (3) of those polls are far too large to dismiss any of them as "outliers". Likewise with the techspot poll which had about 35k respondents at last check before it was pulled. It showed similar results to the TPU poll, with a 50.5% XseX vs 49.5% PS5 split.

There was also a large Twitter poll (with 10s of thousands of responses IIRC) in March which showed an advantage for XseX. By your metric, that is about as "casual" an audience as it gets. I'll see if I can dig a t up and post it here.

On a side note, polls by far have their greatest predictive value when we do serial polling and look at trend lines. Far moreso than aggregate polling, for example, because individual polls are merely snapshots frozen in time. But when we look at serial polls we begin to see a reliable picture with strong predictive value. So, the value of combining the polls we have at our disposal - each of them basically large "snapshots" - is limited...but still far greater than anything else we have at our disposal.

I'm not saying you're wrong, by the way, about the possibility of a 2.5:1 eventual sales ratio. What I am saying is the same thing I've been saying all along in this thread - that any tiny GAF poll on this topic is less than useless by virtue of being conducted in a heavily biased, non random sampled population of extremely small size. The 60%-10% results here are ridiculous vs the much larger polls which even in the IGN "worst case" show far more friendly splits to XseX.

In the end, I think sales may end up being more like 2:1 globally (67-33%) and around 1.5:1 (60-40%) in the states. Both of us can speculate of course. The difference is what we allow as guidance to inform our speculation. I choose to eliminate bias.

What's the point of saying TPU's poll is a legitimate barometer and should be used to inform speculation, then throwing its results out at the end and agreeing the real results will not be anywhere close to its results, and be 2:1? The reason I dismiss the TPU poll is because it's a PC hardware enthusiast site but more importantly, that 51:49 is not even close to realistic given the evidence of how the current gen consoles sell now. And also to a lesser extent how social media metrics stack up. So using common sense you dismiss it, or conclude maybe that for PC hardware fetish guys (I'm one actually), about half of them will choose a Xbox given the choice.

IGN's is the best barometer if we just look at polls as it's a console gaming website first and foremost (the largest), not a niche PC hardware enthusiast site. Surely you can see this?

To be fair I dont give a hoot about these results. My own prediction is closer to 3:1 worldwide than 2:1.

 

[VFXVeteran]

Are you picking up the 3080 ti in a few months? If so will you get nvidias cards or wait for the other companies?

Nvidia all the way. I actually own some stock in my portfolio, so yea, I support them.

 

[Captn]

Same route I’m taking as well.

Ditto here! Waiting for that sweet 3080ti or 3090 if true.. Annnnd I need a new fancy tv ideally between 40 and 50" with all the new features for both my Pc and Ps5

 

[Calverz]

I will probably buy both but the series x will be my default machine of choice. Ps5 will be purely for sony games. Similar to my switch being purely for nintendo games.

 

[Humdinger]

It occurred to me that Ghost of Tsushima will be on the PS5, in upgraded form. I won't get around to playing GoT for some time, so I might as well play it on the PS5, particularly since everyone talks about how purdy the game is.

Kena looked good, too, and although it will be released on PS4, it'll probably look better on PS5 as well.

Then there's Ratchet and Clank, which I'm guessing/hoping will be in the release window, or if not, out within the first year.

So, I'm switching my vote from "neither" to PS5.

----

Current poll ratio 3.5 to 1 (PS>X). That's down from 4.3 to 1, where it was at 300 votes. As expected, XSX buyers showed up a bit later in the process. We're currently at 660 total votes, which is higher than in previous polls.

 

[Humdinger]

Bump for any remaining votes.