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[Polygon] Mario Kart 8 likely to be the worst-selling game in... what is that chart

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Laieon

Member
I feel like y'all are trying to make this something it isn't, just because it's coming out of Polygon.

All the article is saying is that the Nintendo has currently sold 6.17 million Wii U's, and they expect to sell another 3.6 million by the end of March 2015 (and as we all know, Nintendo's predictions haven't exactly been on spot lately, but that's an entirely different subject), bringing the total up to 9.77 million. If we look at history, the attach rate has been something like 20%, which means that it's a pretty safe guess that it will sell around 2 million copies by the end of March 2015 unless sales of the console pick up. They're using Nintendo's own figures to come up with that estimate.

They aren't saying the game is bad, in fact, they seemed to like it judging by the fact that they gave it a 9/10.

I actually found this article interesting, simply because it really does put into perspective how terrible the Wii U is doing.

<insert joke about Polygon being the worst game website in internet history>

They're legitimately my favorite, much better than anything else out there as far as gaming news sites go imo (I really don't understand what GAF sees in Giantbomb, they do nothing for me). I do with wish they would release more long form articles though, the one they put out about the history of Xbox Live was excellent.


It always makes me laugh when GAF seems to go off on them though. If you don't like them, why continue giving them traffic?
 

MrBadger

Member
That just seems obvious to me. Mariokart usually sells a shit-tonne and it's no secret that the Wii U is going to affect sales considering just about everyone had a Wii when MKWii hit. It could still do pretty well and move Wii U's, though.

Good to see Polygon are putting a lot of necessary research to just say that, though.
 
From Ben's Twitter: "Mario Kart 8 Will Be The Worst Selling Game In Kart History"
Headline title: "Mario Kart 8 likely to be the worst-selling game in its history"
Article body: "If every current Wii U owner bought the next installment, Mario Kart 8, it would still be the second-worst selling game in franchise history."


kekksjmh.png


Well which one is it, make up your mind.

Holy shit, this is some buzzfeed level garbage

EDIT: Actually, its worse. Buzzfeed would probably say "This Estimate Of Mario Kart 8's Potential Sales Will Shock You"
 

JoeM86

Member
So no one will buy a WiiU to play MK8? The N64 had shipped 6.1M at the end of FY1997 and MK64 was released that FY in Japan and NA. It outsold its install base by a factor of almost 2...

I believe well and truly that the Wii U has been dead for a while, but MK8 do more than 2M at the end of FY2015.

Shipment source. Note how low Europe is because it launched in 1997.

Yeah, and as said before, the 3DS had only done 6.68m two months before MK7. The figure we have for Wii U is two months before MK8. Not saying it'll cause the Wii U to sell like the 3DS did, but it's illogical for Polygon to have excluded these facts...
 
'A lot of research clearly went into this article!'

*cites banned site with made up bs numbers as source*

Wow such research, many professional etc.
 

Laconic

Banned
And who is writing the counter article: "Mario Kart 8 will likely be the biggest console mover in franchise history", I wonder?
 

Amory

Member
I seriously can't believe this game isn't out yet.

Just shows that Nintendo is content to lay down and play dead until they can get another system out.
 

Darksol

Member
I thought it was going to be the best selling in the franchise. Thanks Polygon for your studious research. Now I know that systems with small install bases sell less games than systems with large install bases.
 
Even though it's pretty likely MK8 will be the worst selling given the Wii U's install base, I still feel it will sell reasonably well. The series has amazingly long legs when it comes to having long-lasting sustained sales. Hell, the Wii has been completely dead for almost two years now but MKWii still sold ~1 million last year, I believe. Obviously that's a much larger userbase but it shows the game can still have sustained sales throughout the life the platform, which for the Wii U may be admittedly short.
 

PKrockin

Member
What the hell is the point of this article? Did anybody not think that this will be the case with the Wii U's sales how they are?

Seems like they actually wanted to write another nintendoomed article about how shitty the Wii U's sales are and how bad Nintendo's profits are, and just disguised it as some kind of analysis of Mario Kart sales.
 
Why hasn't this site been blacklisted yet? On one hand they deserve it for their shoddy journalism, on the other, what would we talk about with their absence.

I think it has more to do with how you ban sites here by keyword.url

imagine banning polygon as a keyword on a video game site :p

they are safe
 
Man, I don't even get paid for this, but let me try:

Attach rates for console entries, because they matter:

Super Mario Kart: 5,61:1
Mario Kart 64: 3,34:1
Mario Kart DD: 3,13:1
Mario Kart Wii: 3,01:1

(5,61+3,34+3,13+3,01)/4=3,77 is the projected attach rate. Let's say Polygon is right and there are 6.17 million Wii Us out there, MK8 should sell around 1.64 million units.
Super Mario 3D World had a much higher attach rate than many previous Marios. Why can't MK8 be the same?
 
Well..yeah we, as in most of us here, expect that.

3D World is likely the worst selling 3D "main" Mario game, i doubt it has surpassed Sunshine or even that DS Mario 64 port.

What do you mean 'even that DS Mario 64 port'? That game handily outsold Sunshine (10m vs 5m).
 

prag16

Banned

The amount of research doesn't necessarily have a positive correlation with actual usefulness/insightfulness/worthwhileness of the article.

The amount of research doesn't necessarily have a negative correlation with the degree to which it can be described as clickbait.
 

Maxrunner

Member
With articles like this no wonder people will pass from buying it...the press keeps writing negative articles about wiiu....even if the game in question seems to be top notch...
 

Grief.exe

Member
What the heck kind of pie graph is this supposed to be?

mario_kart_pie_chart.jpg

I haven't read the article, but I'm guessing they are comparing the Mario Kart sales to units of hardware sold.

You can then, very roughly, average out the number of Mario Kart copies sold to consumers over the lifetime of Nintendo consoles. Then, compare that to the number of WiiU consoles in circulation to get an incredibly rough estimate to the amount of sales.

There is a wide, wide margin of error associated with this method of course.
 

Jonboy

Member
I'm torn because part of me doesn't want to give Polygon the clicks, but the other part of me wants to see how ridiculous the article is.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
I seriously can't believe this game isn't out yet.

Just shows that Nintendo is content to lay down and play dead until they can get another system out.

Umm this game likely wouldn't be reviewing so well if they rushed it out the door.
 

69wpm

Member
Super Mario 3D World had a much higher attach rate than many previous Marios. Why can't MK8 be the same?

I'm sure it will, I was just following the dodgy logic from Polygon. What I don't understand is why the brilliant mind of the writer mixed console games with handheld games, the latter sells historically less (considering the attach rate). It doesn't make any sense to look at console and handheld games when you try to project a number for the next console game.
 

RM8

Member
So sad that this is pretty much a given considering how awesome the game seems to be :( I hope they port it to their next system as a "New Play Control" kind of game or something.

Or 3DS :p
 
Q

qizah

Unconfirmed Member
I think this is the worst video game article I've read in quite some time. The guy completely ignores the fact that for Mario Kart, long term sales have always been key, not immediate sales. There's a reason why the sales of the last few games have been so high.
 

Petrae

Member
Eventually, the doom & gloom articles take their toll. If "experts" continually write about a console in a negative light, consumers will see them and quite possibly not buy the console because it's "dead", "in trouble ", or other associations of weakness.

Just this week alone, I've read two "WiiU is dead" articles (one from Polygon) and now this declaration about how poorly Mario Kart is going to sell.

As a consumer, these articles instill zero confidence in the platform and steer me towards not buying it. I mean... if it's practically dead already-- or soon will be-- why would I bother?
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
I haven't read the article, but I'm guessing they are comparing the Mario Kart sales to units of hardware sold.

You can then, very roughly, average out the number of Mario Kart copies sold to consumers over the lifetime of Nintendo consoles. Then, compare that to the number of WiiU consoles in circulation to get an incredibly rough estimate to the amount of sales.

There is a wide, wide margin of error associated with this method of course.

It's pretty obvious what he's attempting to do. It's fact he has no idea how to competently do it (percentages on graphs man they work!) and the fact his data is all poorly researched, just makes this a hack level graph. I could do better in high school and I'm not joking.

This guy is paid for this shit.
 

Tan

Member
Sounds about right. Also the article says those numbers came from ******** , I thought that site was unreliable?


EDIT: Uh. Yeah like I thought.
 

Grief.exe

Member
It's pretty obvious what he's attempting to do. It's fact he has no idea how to competently do it (percentages on graphs man they work!) and the fact his data is all poorly researched, just makes this a hack level graph. I could do better in high school and I'm not joking.

This guy is paid for this shit.

English majors don't generally get that much Math exposure and Polygon isn't exactly known for their educated and informed journalists.

Let me show you how much hardwork went into this article, you people need to quit being dicks

WV5hYx0.png

Would have been better as a venn diagram.
 
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