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[jroc74]

Consumers have limited time and money to spend.

They can buy multiple consoles, but the average consumer usually buys only one and sticks with it. Not because of console wars or loyalty, but because the average consumer just wants a videogame to play his favorite games (FIFA, COD, AC, etc).

Nintendo usually sells more regardless, because there are games that you can only find on the Nintendo Switch. Plus, it's less expensive. And it's portable (different audience)

For Playstation and Xbox 95% of the games are also available on the other platform, so people choose based on whichever is cheaper, has the best exclusives or gives less headaches.

Based on your last sentence, how would that mean it will be harder for PS5 to sell as well as the PS4?

Sony has exclusive many like;
They have a cheaper option for a PS5.

While we are saying all this, the PS5 still outsold the Switch in at least one region one time already. Switch stock is better than both Series consoles and PS5.

For Sony to be effected, they would have to cause it themselves.

....kinda like how MS is with stock..... Both MS and Sony are having the same difficulties but Sony seems to be more prepared. Both stay sold out and yet the PS5 is still ahead in sales.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

40 - 60 mill. Sony has stiff competition from MS this time around and the PS5 is less compelling than the PS4. I wouldn't be surprised if the Series S takes a real bite out of Sony's sales this gen.

How is the PS5 less compelling than the PS4? It's more powerful when compared against contemporary gaming PCs, backwards compatible with the second best selling home console of all time, has a better launch lineup, is launching at the same price without accounting for inflation, and is launching during a global pandemic that has caused interest in video gaming to skyrocket.

The Series S isn't taking a bite out of anything. It's a last-gen console that is selling sluggishly.

 

[LordBlodgett]

100-120 million is my call. All three of the big gaming companies are on fire at the moment, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. On the other hand consoles are not growing as a platform at the same speed mobile and PC gaming are, and there isn't a huge non-gaming reason to have one (Like DVD was for PS2), so I can't really see it increasing market share massively over the PS4.

 

[Winter John]

How is the PS5 less compelling than the PS4? It's more powerful when compared against contemporary gaming PCs, backwards compatible with the second best selling home console of all time, has a better launch lineup, is launching at the same price without accounting for inflation, and is launching during a global pandemic that has caused interest in video gaming to skyrocket.

The Series S isn't taking a bite out of anything. It's a last-gen console that is selling sluggishly.

I'd say it's fairly obvious that a lot customers will jump on the Series S because of it's price, it's availability and Game Pass

 

[SlimeGooGoo]

.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Switch will probably be the winner in sales.

Switch is an eighth generation console, not a ninth generation console.

 

[Robb]

Maybe 80-100M.

 

[ArtemisClydeFrog]

Switch is an eighth generation console, not a ninth generation console.

Still thuggin' on them cats tho

 

[Three]

Trolls who voted less than 20

It will probably sell that much by the end of this year alone.

 

[ColdAfternoon]

I think it will sell well in North America, but despite initial strong sales, worse than ps4 everywhere else, especially Japan.

80-100

 

[SlimeGooGoo]

.

 

[Marcus Aurelius]

It will sell more than Switch or Xbox easily

 

[turtlepowa]

80-100

 

[v_iHuGi]

Updating my prediction to 130M+ at bare minimum.

Will crush Ps4 across all countries, including Japan but will be very close there.

 

[jroc74]

I think it will sell well in North America, but despite initial strong sales, worse than ps4 everywhere else, especially Japan.

80-100

Honestly, its looking like only Japan is where it will sell alot worse than PS4. Everywhere else could be real close to what PS4 did.

Also, I see ppl bringing up how this time Sony has more competition. Well...this time there is actually more demand for PS5 than when PS4 launched.

The PS4 was coming off the PS3, and MS royally fucked up the launch of the XBO. And the Wii U was a joke. If many wanna say Sony only did good with the PS4 because of the competition, well this time their console is in more demand because of the success of the PS4.

Wouldnt that counter any demand from the competition?

Its not like the PS5 had a terrible launch, launch message, marketing. All things point to it continuing and exceeding PS4 in this regard.

Competition is doing better, PS5 is continuing and exceeding PS4 demand and yet PS5 not gonna match PS4? Does not compute.


......despite all the success Google, Android, Samsung starting having, the iPhone kept outselling the previous iPhone for years...... If the PS5 sell 120 million, and Series consoles and Switch also sell 100 million, thats still Sony selling as well as PS4.

Again, others doing good doesnt have to mean you do bad.

 

[Rudius]

If it got really cheap it could surpass the PS2. Many people on Latin America, Africa and Asia would like a modern console, but can't afford one. If the price only ever drops to PS4's 299, it will reach the same ~120 million.

 

[Handel]

90-110 million total, so less than the PS4. It's competitors are at their strongest ever(even more than Wii/360), and a good deal of It's unique Japanese titles are gone losing what little interest Japan might have(PS4 is near 10m units sold in Japan IIRC, PS5 won't do even half that). On top of that, PC gamers have less reason to buy a PS console given the recent PC ports of previously PS exclusive games like Horizon.

 

[Alright]

80-100 mil tops.

Not because Xboggzorzzz is teh best, or that Gaystation sucks, but because i think there will be a drop-off in demand for consoles across the board

 

[mxbison]

I think around 100 million.

The competition is stronger and I think this generation might be shorter. Also seems like it could take a whole year to have enough in stock, that doesn't help either.

 

[SLB1904]

More than 160 for sure. Half a billion seems about right

 

[Torrent of Pork]

Let's also not forget that after Xcloud rams its way into every device you own Microsoft doesn't need to sell you a box to offer you a GPU sub.

This isn't the 90's anymore. Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are all pursuing wildly different business strategies that aren't necessarily in direct competition with each other. Sony is the same traditional console through and through, and that's certainly not a criticism because it's clearly working. Nintendo dropped what they were failing at, and went full in on what they had murdered the competition for years with in the handheld market. Microsoft is a service company, they don't give a damn whether you sub to GPU on a Series X, S, a PC, mobile, Smart TV, a Samsung fridge display, etc.

All are valid strategies, as apparently everybody in the videogame industry are making money hand over fist.

Edit- Put me down for 120-150 million as this point 7 years into the gen.

 

[Kokoloko85]

Switch is an eighth generation console, not a ninth generation console.

Its strange cause personally I wouldnt call it a console, its an amazing Hybrid and Nintendo done a great job. They done wonders avoiding making another console.
The only reason its doing well in Japan is because its a handheld.

Nintendo apart from the Wii doesn’t exactly sell consoles well in Japan. Its sold less and less since the NES.
The Saturn beat the N64 in Japan. And Gamecube and Wii U done awful numbers in Japan. Handhelds though have sold the best.

Even the PSP has sold more than any Nintendo and Playstation console apart from the PS2.

At half the price the Wii sold 12.7 million which was its best selling console worldwide and 10.47 million for the PS3 which was Sony’s worst selling console worldwide.

Japan is Handheld land. They haven’t been Nintendo land since the Snes.
But I love all there consoles apart from the Wii ( even the Wii U ) I prefer them to handhelds overall

 

[Ellery]

This is a tough one. It basically comes down to the exclusives and Sony needs a few bangers early on to get the momentum going. It is a somewhat expensive piece of hardware with even more expensive games and it is impossible to predict the economy/future in the next few years, which is something that heavily impacts the willingness of people to pay for it.

Since God of War Ragnarok and Horizon Forbidden West are delayed to 2022 and so are many many other games it will rely big time on 2022 and 2023, but if Sony can show once again that they have the very best single player games by far on the market then it might go upwards of 100m. Somewhere between 75m to 110m is my prediction.

 

[Ps5ProFoSho]

200M

 

[Captain Toad]

I'm not gonna touch this one. I don't even know if we'll have the same world in 5 years.

A new tech could come up and disrupt all of these systems in a second, going through them like paper. I won't take a single day for granted.

From 2016:

hybrid?

After all these years this is what you came up with Nintendo?

It's going to have the same fate as GBA Connectivity and the Wii U Gamepad. The public didn't like this idea so why insist? The whole thing is very confusiing too, the averag person won't even bother.

I will be very very surprised if this thing sells at all.

Probably a good idea.

 

[Bragr]

It's gonna cruise past 120 million like it's nothing. It's gonna annihilate PS4.

 

[v_iHuGi]

It's gonna cruise past 120 million like it's nothing. It's gonna annihilate PS4.

Easily, will be fun to see this thread in the future.

 

[Arkam]

Wherever the PS4 lands plus 10-15%. So 100m plus. I see the PS5 growing in developing markets and staying the same (or very minor retractions) in established markets.

IF PSVR is does deliver a great VR experience (for 2021/2 market) and has a decent offering of quality games I will revise upward another 3-5m units.

 

[Captain Toad]

Easily, will be fun to see this thread in the future.

I doubt it. People will be off one way or another, but most likely will be in the ballpark. PlayStation home consoles are incredibly consistent.

Unlike, Nintendo where they can go straight from a cultural phenomenon to a complete dud and back.

 

[Ten_Fold]

Less than ps4, so maybe around 90-105m. Only reason is because Xbox will probably do well this generation and the switch is on fire.

 

[Kagoshima_Luke]

Xbox is in a better position this gen to compete. Nintendo is crushing it. I'm seeing PS5 fall into 80-90M territory WW.

 

[Banjo64]

I think 100m, Xbox Series 75m.

 

[The Gorby Congressmanz]

The slow start, and the release windows for those Microsoft games people have been awaiting for puts Sony at a disadvantage, heck MS not screwing up launch put them at a disadvantage, Regardless of who wins Sony doesn't have anyone to give them free lunch to give them extra fuel, there's no Wii U collapse either.

Along with the higher price in games, and likely we won't see $199 consoles again unless we are lucky a year into the next gen 5 years from now, I'm not sure that the PS5 will sell much more than 50 million maybe 57 million

People need to realize that world economy is a factor this gen, it's not just the slow down due to production and retail openings because of the virus, but also more saving and a lack of buying luxury items, and if in the US you see a significant percentage of that drop you know in other countries that drop is just as big or even larger. I expect English speaking nations to hit a regular stride assuming things are mostly clear by end of summer, in 2022, it may take until 2025 for several countries though.

I expect the US to be at, over, or near 40% of the sales for both consoles due to this.

 

[Bo_Hazem]

I think it'll pass 150M.

 

[SLB1904]

The slow start, and the release windows for those Microsoft games people have been awaiting for puts Sony at a disadvantage, heck MS not screwing up launch put them at a disadvantage, Regardless of who wins Sony doesn't have anyone to give them free lunch to give them extra fuel, there's no Wii U collapse either.

Along with the higher price in games, and likely we won't see $199 consoles again unless we are lucky a year into the next gen 5 years from now, I'm not sure that the PS5 will sell much more than 50 million maybe 57 million

People need to realize that world economy is a factor this gen, it's not just the slow down due to production and retail openings because of the virus, but also more saving and a lack of buying luxury items, and if in the US you see a significant percentage of that drop you know in other countries that drop is just as big or even larger. I expect English speaking nations to hit a regular stride assuming things are mostly clear by end of summer, in 2022, it may take until 2025 for several countries though.

I expect the US to be at, over, or near 40% of the sales for both consoles due to this.

I thought you were joking at first lmfao. You really have no evidence to back anything you are saying.

 

[SLB1904]

Xbox is in a better position this gen to compete. Nintendo is crushing it. I'm seeing PS5 fall into 80-90M territory WW.

In what better position xbox is? Is selling less than xbox one. Struggling to sell series s. If ps5 didnt have stock issues it would be miles ahead already

 

[DenchDeckard]

I'm going 110 million. It's gonna be a hit

 

[zedinen]

March 31, 2021 - 7.7 m
June 2021 - 10 m
March 31, 2022 - 24 m

KPI in the 2020s
Hardware
Physical Software
-First Party
-Third Party
Digital software
-First Party
-Third Party
-Add on content
Subscriptions
MAU

Hardware - Sony home consoles and Nintendo portable consoles take turns dominating (PS1-GB, PS2-NDS, PS4-NSW)

Physical software - Nintendo dominates

Digital software - Sony will crush its rivals

Subcriptions, MAU - Sony and Microsoft are very strong

Tier 1- Sony, Tencent
Tier 2 - Microsoft, Nintendo

 

[Burythelight]

The slow start, and the release windows for those Microsoft games people have been awaiting for puts Sony at a disadvantage, heck MS not screwing up launch put them at a disadvantage, Regardless of who wins Sony doesn't have anyone to give them free lunch to give them extra fuel, there's no Wii U collapse either.

Along with the higher price in games, and likely we won't see $199 consoles again unless we are lucky a year into the next gen 5 years from now, I'm not sure that the PS5 will sell much more than 50 million maybe 57 million

People need to realize that world economy is a factor this gen, it's not just the slow down due to production and retail openings because of the virus, but also more saving and a lack of buying luxury items, and if in the US you see a significant percentage of that drop you know in other countries that drop is just as big or even larger. I expect English speaking nations to hit a regular stride assuming things are mostly clear by end of summer, in 2022, it may take until 2025 for several countries though.

I expect the US to be at, over, or near 40% of the sales for both consoles due to this.

No you can't sell like ps4.
Sony: brbr ps5 goes120 milion brbrr

 

[The Gorby Congressmanz]

In what better position xbox is? Is selling less than xbox one. Struggling to sell series s

Series S is sold out in most places just like the Series X, you are talking about outliers.

You also have no idea what the Xbox sold, why every new gen you people will prop up unreliable estimates everytime for Xbox?

Ampere, a random firm, in which if you search across all of Neogaf isn't mentioned across the boards history outside an unrelated Nvidia GPU by the same name.​

How is that even remotely reliable? Where are they getting their data from? Why are the usual links not reporting anything? But you are going to make your baseless assumptions off of random analysts data with no track record??​

​

What's worse is that even if these sales were true we still wouldn't have a gauge for Xbox because 2.8 compared to 2.9 (it was actually 3) would only seem like a problem to someone with low intellect, that's less than an estimated 100k~ apart where the margin of error is basically a draw, and last I checked the Xbox One super overshipped and actually only sold around 2 which is why stores across the globe were stuffed with several SKU's including the day one edition for months even AFTER Titanfall, meanwhile the Series X is selling out in seconds IF astore gets stock, and the Series S is only really found in some regions while it's sold out in most other places as well (which is easy to verify by just looking at regional stock at retail chains)

So Even if it was true the Series X is objectively in a better position than the One, but the truth is that this data isn't reliable and the Series X is likely higher. Both MS (in fact they gave transparency on this first) and Sony have both said they are picking up production, a strange thing to do if the Series X was "doing worse" than the One.

This is what happens when unhealthy fanboisim degrades the brain. You take ignorance and a lack of proofk and say it's proof because you WANT it to be proof, not that it is.

 

[plasmawave]

Console wars aside, it's crazy to believe that the PS5 will sell as much as the PS4.
When PS4 was released Nintendo shot their own foot with the WiiU and Microsoft did the same with the Xbox One + Kinect.

This gen Microsoft is doing things right, and Nintendo has the Switch and is planning some sort of Pro version.
PS5 will likely do very well in sales, but there's no way it'll sell as much as the PS4 as consumers have options now.

PS5 is the fastest selling console in history. With more games coming out for it there's no sign for the momentum slowing down.

 

[yazenov]

PS5 sales depends on Sony's pricing strategy.

The PS4 was flying off the shelves despite Sony's lack of interest in decreasing its price compared to the competition . It hit 120 million without it reaching $199 . If Sony wanted to hit 140 million, they could easily do it by reducing its price and do more sales. They were more interested in revenue and profit rather than unit sold.

PS5 could easily surpass the PS4's sales if Sony's priority is unit sold over revenue by being more aggressive in pricing.

 

[yazenov]

Easily, will be fun to see this thread in the future.

Yeah some people are really pushing the narrative that the reason Sony lead the generation with the PS4 was because the competition was poor. I wonder what will be the excuse this time when the PS5 comes out on top again.

People forgot about the PS1 and the PS2. Sony has a pattern of dominance yet people always come up with dumb reasons to downplay Sony's success.

 

[HoofHearted]

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