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[snatches]

I have been thinking about this for a while, and I think it would me extremely smart for Sony to launch the PS3 first in North America. Here are some reasons why:

1) Sony has no next gen competition in Japan

-Let's face it. The Xbox360 has launched in Japan, and nobody cares. The next gen fight in the land of the rising sun will be fought between Sony and Nintendo, and at the moment, Sony does not have any motivation to rush out a costly PS3 console in its home territory.

2) North America is THE territory that BluRay needs to be successful

-Sony is gambling everything on BluRay, and by a huge factor, North America is the largest DVD market in the world. The movie properties that will push the format are U.S. properties. Toshiba has announced they will have an HD-DVD player at the $500 mark before summer, and the only hope for Sony to be competitive in that price point with BluRay is with a subsidized PS3 console. Sony can't afford to not have the price advantage in a market where the mass market cares about the value of items, and HD-DVD should be easy to market for Toshiba and their partners to the average Joe.

3) Sony doesn't need a killer app at launch to be successful

-If the 360 launch has proven anything, its that you don't need a Halo-level killer app at launch to sell a console. Just get third parties to port some current console games with pretty textures (King Kong, THAW, GUN, NHL2K6, Madden 06, NBA2K6, Tiger Woods, NFS: MW, etc.) and port over some hot PC properties that push the visual envelope (COD2, Quake 4), and a handful of exclusive and somewhat impressive titles (PDZ, Kameo, PGR3, etc.). Surely Sony could match this launch offering in relatively short order.

4) Sony could take the next gen lead by the end of the year

-With all the industry pundits telling Sony that it could be 2008 before they regain the lead in installed base from the 360, Sony could surprise everyone and launch the console by Summer. By fall, they could have manufacturing in full swing to fully meet holiday demand, something the 360 failed to do. Sony could theoretically have the lead by the end of the year.

 

[VictimOfGrief]

*EDIT* Readers Digest Version: Microsoft sucks at getting Xbox 360's to North American's, that's why Sony will launch in US first. :lol

 

[Dr_Cogent]

I don't see it happening.

 

[Bebpo]

Not happening.

 

[Hero]

Haha.

 

[Xellotah]

5) To stop themselves being steamrolled by the X360

 

[Deg]

UK first

 

[sonycowboy]

I have been thinking about this for a while, and I think it would me extremely smart for Sony to launch the PS3 first in North America. Here are some reasons why:

1) Sony has no next gen competition in Japan

-Let's face it. The Xbox360 has launched in Japan, and nobody cares. The next gen fight in the land of the rising sun will be fought between Sony and Nintendo, and at the moment, Sony does not have any motivation to rush out a costly PS3 console in its home territory.

2) North America is THE territory that BluRay needs to be successful

-Sony is gambling everything on BluRay, and by a huge factor, North America is the largest DVD market in the world. The movie properties that will push the format are U.S. properties. Toshiba has announced they will have an HD-DVD player at the $500 mark before summer, and the only hope for Sony to be competitive in that price point with BluRay is with a subsidized PS3 console. Sony can't afford to not have the price advantage in a market where the mass market cares about the value of items, and HD-DVD should be easy to market for Toshiba and their partners to the average Joe.

3) Sony doesn't need a killer app at launch to be successful

-If the 360 launch has proven anything, its that you don't need a Halo-level killer app at launch to sell a console. Just get third parties to port some current console games with pretty textures (King Kong, THAW, GUN, NHL2K6, Madden 06, NBA2K6, Tiger Woods, NFS: MW, etc.) and port over some hot PC properties that push the visual envelope (COD2, Quake 4), and a handful of exclusive and somewhat impressive titles (PDZ, Kameo, PGR3, etc.). Surely Sony could match this launch offering in relatively short order.

4) Sony could take the next gen lead by the end of the year

-With all the industry pundits telling Sony that it could be 2008 before they regain the lead in installed base from the 360, Sony could surprise everyone and launch the console by Summer. By fall, they could have manufacturing in full swing to fully meet holiday demand, something the 360 failed to do. Sony could theoretically have the lead by the end of the year.

Excellent points. Although, I think the monkey wrench is that Japanese software support has been one of the key factors for Playstation success. Look at the launches, and what has Sony's first party done at launch? And western publishers seem to only want to put out derivative multi-platform (say 9-10 platforms) titles that are watered down by being on weaker hardware.

I agree, that PS3 ~should launch in US first, and Europe soon afterwards, but Sony has to be respectful of the Japanese community which is one of their biggest assets.

 

[GitarooMan]

Unlikely, if only because it's more proven that you can launch with mostly shit in Japan and be successful, while the X360 ports, EA Sports games, and FPS games will probably take slightly longer to make. JP launch early summer, NA launch late summer/early fall is what I'm still sticking to. Plus you don't have to make as many for just JP, so they can get their production kinks out of the way before NA launch.

 

[xaosslug]

I wish.

 

[snatches]

Excellent points. Although, I think the monkey wrench is that Japanese software support has been one of the key factors for Playstation success. Look at the launches, and what has Sony's first party done at launch? And western publishers seem to only want to put out derivative multi-platform (say 9-10 platforms) titles that are watered down by being on weaker hardware.

I agree, that PS3 ~should launch in US first, and Europe soon afterwards, but Sony has to be respectful of the Japanese community which is one of their biggest assets.

It didn't hurt Nintendo with the DS......Japan is a land unto itself, they don't care if the U.S. gets the PS3 first as long as they get their biggest franchises on the platform first.....ie. FF, DQ, etc.

 

[DarienA]

5) To stop themselves being steamrolled by the X360

I thought we were talking stuff that was within reason?

It probably won't happen but some of those bullet points are very valid.

 

[MassiveAttack]

Nice points but never gonna happen. Japanese companies rarely break with precedence and it won't be any different this time.

 

[Dr_Cogent]

I thought we were talking stuff that was within reason?

It probably won't happen but some of those bullet points are very valid.

While I don't think the PS3 will get steamrolled, I think their lead may get thinner this next round.

 

[snatches]

Nice points but never gonna happen. Japanese companies rarely break with precedence and it won't be any different this time.

I'll say it again. Nintendo DS was the first Nintendo console to debut outside of Japan. Times they are a changin. Sony has to much at stake with BluRay. And a white boy CEO who comes from their movie division.

 

[DarienA]

While I don't think the PS3 will get steamrolled, I think their lead may get thinner this next round.

Well considering how big the lead is this gen... how could it not get smaller next?

 

[Dr_Cogent]

Well considering how big the lead is this gen... how could it not get smaller next?

Maybe I should have said - significantly smaller. If MS can garner more software support this next round, Sony will have a hard time keeping its numbers so much higher than the competition.

MS should never be underestimated since they have the deep pocket books to dive into. The bastards :lol

 

[Lord Error]

It makes perfect sense. Unless there's some crazy corporate in-fighting there to prevent that, it would be the smartest to launch in NA first.

 

[sonycowboy]

Well considering how big the lead is this gen... how could it not get smaller next?

Agreed.


With a likely end of this generation somewhere around: (give or take a few million)

PS2: 130M
Xbox: 27M
GCN: 25M

I think it's all but guaranteed that Sony won't

a) Outsell it's nearest competitor by ~500% or ~100M units.
b) Outsell it's two competitors by 270% or ~80M units.

The success of the PS2 can't be replicated next gen, even by the PS3. Sony will be very fortunate to hit 100M again, like they did with the PSOne. And they won't approach anywhere near a ~65% console market share in the console realm again. I think those days are now gone.

 

[DaCocoBrova]

HD-DVD playback OTB is all they need to do well in any region

 

[Seventh Son]

5) To stop themselves being steamrolled by the X360

hay xbot

 

[snatches]

Agreed.


With a likely end of this generation somewhere around: (give or take a few million)

PS2: 130M
Xbox: 27M
GCN: 25M

I think it's all but guaranteed that Sony won't

a) Outsell it's nearest competitor by ~500% or ~100M units.
b) Outsell it's two competitors by 270% or ~80M units.

The success of the PS2 can't be replicated next gen, even by the PS3. Sony will be very fortunate to hit 100M again, like they did with the PSOne. And they won't approach anywhere near a ~65% console market share in the console realm again. I think those days are now gone.

That's interesting, buy my personal belief is that Sony could definitely sell 100 million consoles again, but in a market that buys 200 million. I expect the market to continue to grow dramatically in the next gen, especially when the price is more mass market.

 

[Shinobi]

The points are excellent, but it really doesn't matter. PS3 is NOT going to be released in the US before Labour Day, no matter how much people would like to wish for it to happen. It's pretty much the worst time to release a product like this. September-November is a good time to release it, where Madden will be available on day one, where developers would've had a few extra months from E3 to polish up their games, and where the buzz can build and sustain itself and even grow through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Also, as a fall launch product it becomes one of the must-haves for the Christmas shopping season, a feat that's tougher to pull off for something released before hand. Sony wants the same media shine MS got with 360 in November and December.

 

[Tiger]

Never gonna happen. Japan is the homeland and Sony has made that clear with time and time again. Hell, the Japanese public had the PS2 nearly 8 months before the U.S.

 

[xaosslug]

Maybe I should have said - significantly smaller. If MS can garner more software support this next round, Sony will have a hard time keeping its numbers so much higher than the competition.

MS should never be underestimated since they have the deep pocket books to dive into. The bastards :lol

Though I do think it's a (slim) possibility that Sony's lead will shrink a little this gen (doutful, IMO), I don't see MS' growing on any level enough that it significantly bridges the gap. Sales'll be down all around if at all, IMO.

 

[Wulfer]

Did even have to read half the thread....



WRONG!

 

[Dr_Cogent]

Whats the point in launching that early? Isn't the Christmas holiday season a huge reason not to?

I don't see Sony doing this to their own people either.

 

[sonycowboy]

That's interesting, buy my personal belief is that Sony could definitely sell 100 million consoles again, but in a market that buys 200 million. I expect the market to continue to grow dramatically in the next gen, especially when the price is more mass market.

My first inclination a year or so was to agree, but with an extended PS2 life cycle, the large number of viable platforms, the lack of any headstart, and the high price point that will likely exist for years, 100M units will probably be a tall order.

Just try and add up what you think each of these platforms will get over the next 5 years:

1) PS2
2) GBA
3) DS
4) PSP
5) Xbox 360
6) Revolution
7) PS3
8) Gameboy Next

You'll see that if you just make assumptions based off of last gen and ratchet them up by whatever percentage, you could quickly get to over 300M HW units sold. I just don't think the market can support that many units being purchased.

 

[Hyoushi]

Readers Digest Version: Microsoft Sucks.

:lol

 

[Vark]

3) Sony doesn't need a killer app at launch to be successful

This is flat out wrong. MS had the luxury of being the only 'next-gen' system out. The software was less revelant. However when Sony launches in the US they're up against the 2nd wave of MS titles. Why buy quick ports and PC games on a new PS3 when the Xbox 360 has actual games?

 

[kaching]

Although, I think the monkey wrench is that Japanese software support has been one of the key factors for Playstation success. Look at the launches, and what has Sony's first party done at launch? And western publishers seem to only want to put out derivative multi-platform (say 9-10 platforms) titles that are watered down by being on weaker hardware.

All signs point to Sony having pretty significant 1st and 2nd party WESTERN support well underway with more than one project planned for launch. In fact, I think we've heard more about the progress of these PS3 projects than anything else - Warhawk, I-8, Lair, Heavenly Sword.

 

[soundwave05]

I could see Sony pushing for a slightly earlier PS3 launch in North America ... more around August/September perhaps, right around the start of the NFL football season (Madden NFL).

That will also give them a chance to get second and possibly third shipments into North America before the Christmas rush ends.

The main reason I think they'd actually want to launch in Japan at first is they can overcharge in Japan. They could launch for about $500 in Japan and no one would blink twice about it, so they get away with charging a bit of a premium on the very first run of consoles and then ease into the US for say $399.99 or possibly even a bit less.

 

[xaosslug]

This is flat out wrong. MS had the luxury of being the only 'next-gen' system out. The software was less revelant. However when Sony launches in the US they're up against the 2nd wave of MS titles. Why buy quick ports and PC games on a new PS3 when the Xbox 360 has actual games?

Why ask Why? lol

 

[snatches]

The points are excellent, but it really doesn't matter. PS3 is NOT going to be released in the US before Labour Day, no matter how much people would like to wish for it to happen.

This is absolutely the traditional thinking, but lets hypothesize. HD-DVD has a half dozen players available by summer for around $500. They have backing from Universal (and others) and an appealling software lineup as far as Joe Average is concerned. Can Sony afford for it to be late fall before BluRay can compete with the price of HD-DVD players?

Perhaps this is why a western CEO was necessary. Stringer has some very powerful friends in the BluRay camp, and their interests live and die in North America, primarily.

 

[sonycowboy]

All signs point to Sony having pretty significant 1st and 2nd party WESTERN support well underway with more than one project planned for launch. In fact, I think we've heard more about the progress of these PS3 projects than anything else - Warhawk, I-8, Lair, Heavenly Sword.

Agreed. That was sort of what my post was alluding to. Think hard about previous Sony launches and first party software. They have never had the kind of first party lineup at launch as what's being thrown about now. It's an extremely interesting aspect of the launch and has some pretty significant ramifactions for third parties and what they think about the competition this time around.

 

[snatches]

Just try and add up what you think each of these platforms will get over the next 5 years:

I was referring exclusively to the home console market.

 

[soundwave05]

Sony does need one really good exclusive to hang their hat on ... a "high volume, decent quality" launch would still work, but I think they know after the PS2 launch that they want one game there that's bigger than that.

Maybe they will pony up $$$ to get the new Unreal Tournament exclusive for a period of time.

 

[Xellotah]

hay xbot

hay Son

I think my point is as valid as some of the other points in the OP, some of which were quite weak.

 

[Xrenity]

1) They always do.

/thread.

 

[Shinobi]

HD-DVD has been expected to beat Blu-Ray to market for almost two years now, and Sony and other BR backers have never been bothered by that. So why would they care now?

 

[snatches]

This is flat out wrong. MS had the luxury of being the only 'next-gen' system out. The software was less revelant. However when Sony launches in the US they're up against the 2nd wave of MS titles. Why buy quick ports and PC games on a new PS3 when the Xbox 360 has actual games?

Need I remind you that game sales in the U.S. last year were comprised mainly of Madden, NBA, and NFS: MW ports?

North American mass market taste in games is a joke. But there it is.

 

[snatches]

1) They always do.

/thread.

sigh......so did Nintendo before the DS

*thread magically reopens*

-the times they are a-changin'-

 

[sonycowboy]

I was referring exclusively to the home console market.

That's the problem.

I think that the emergence of the DS & PSP (along with the likely launch of the next gameboy) have shown that the handheld market is going to muscle in on the home console market next generation. The numbers for 2005 have been insane and are only likely to get better for the handhelds in 2006 vs consoles.


There's only so many $$$$ out there available for videogames to take and with the overall market getting older, the overlap is more significan than it's ever been. Something will have to give.

 

[Xrenity]

sigh......so did Nintendo before the DS

*thread magically reopens*

-the times they are a-changin'-

Nintendo got lost of Yamauchi and got Reggie (which probably influenced Iwata).

Sony has Kutaragi. period.

 

[SonnyBoy]

I dont claim to know much but hasn't Sony usually offered the PS3 at a discounted price in contrast to the Japanese launch? If they release it here in the States wouldn't we get the higher price?

 

[Ranger X]

This ain't happening.
Sony is in a defensive position right now and this would be a move for someone who's on offensive.
Sony IS leading right now and even in America. The only thingh they have to care about is to transfert the PS2 to the PS3 without loosing too many people and getting new people.
This year, everybody (manner of speaking) will change their system. 2006 will probably be the first "next-gen" year with at least. If Sony arrives after Microsoft but unprepared, they won't make a good impression and people won't care, they will just grab a 360.

Don't kid yourself, most people is curious about the PS3 and many people are waiting. While they wait, their expectations are going higher and higher. And Sony LIKES it.
Now they will have to meet the demand. If they come by with a defective console + halfbaked games, it won't make it because by that time there will probably be a more installed 360 with better games for the same price or less.

Seriously, if Sony wants to get the best chances not to have a shrinked userbase in America, they better plan their launch well and be double-ready.
In Japan they can launch tomorrow if they would want with a game without textures + a pack of sound you would need to download of the internet for 10$ and they would still be ahead of everyone and sold out.

 

[D3VI0US]

1. Nintendo isn't to be underestimated until we've seen what's up their sleeve. Still MS can potentially steal more marketshare in the US than Nintendo could in Japan I think so I could see it happening.

2. Blu Ray is valuable but you over estimate the demand for HD Movies and the threat of HD-DVD.

3. Well they are definately gonna have some 360 ports maybe with some added polish. However I think Sony is really taking the time to have good in house titles at launch as well. I also think they need to cause 1st gen PS3 games are going up against 2nd gen 360 games. Diminishing returns + potentially more expensive console = tough sell. Sony doesn't get enough credit for their first party and they are really gonna shine on PS3 and drive the platform like Nintendo does for their consoles.

4. They won't be able to overtake 360 this year mostly bolstered by 360 Worldwide launch, Sony just won't be able to make the quantity.

I still think they'll launch in Japan first in the Summer if they not having serious problems and the US in Fall. They may be running late but they're not gonna miss the holidays in the US and if they have to choose between the US and Japan they either choose both and severely limit quantity or Japan gets the shaft. Two uncontested holidays in Europe is bad enough, in the US that pretty much means 360 wins in the States.

 

[Ponn]

That's the problem.

I think that the emergence of the DS & PSP (along with the likely launch of the next gameboy) have shown that the handheld market is going to muscle in on the home console market next generation. The numbers for 2005 have been insane and are only likely to get better for the handhelds in 2006 vs consoles.


There's only so many $$$$ out there available for videogames to take and with the overall market getting older, the overlap is more significan than it's ever been. Something will have to give.

I disagree, I think they compliment each other still to this day. The PSP launched at a good time, the only console it would eat into is the PS2 and once the PS3 launches that won't be as big of a deal. And it's still more so in competition with the handheld media device market then consoles. The DS on the other hand is quickly reaching GBA price levels which makes it an easy purchase as well.

 

[snatches]

That's the problem.

I think that the emergence of the DS & PSP (along with the likely launch of the next gameboy) have shown that the handheld market is going to muscle in on the home console market next generation. The numbers for 2005 have been insane and are only likely to get better for the handhelds in 2006 vs consoles.


There's only so many $$$$ out there available for videogames to take and with the overall market getting older, the overlap is more significan than it's ever been. Something will have to give.

I think Nintendo is proving that it is unwise to cap market growth in your planning and new markets join the revolution (no pun intended) everyday. Have faith in your hobby. It will continue to grow.

 

[kaching]

PS3 is NOT going to be released in the US before Labour Day, no matter how much people would like to wish for it to happen. It's pretty much the worst time to release a product like this.

PSP says "hi". It certainly had a better start in North America than the 360 did. Which is only to say that launching during the holiday shopping season is all well and good, assuming you can reasonably keep up with the frenzied demand. As these game platforms get more and more complex under the covers it begins to look less and less rationale to try to do that.