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[hie]

bluray/hd-dvd....some of you are giving it too much credit. it's too early (this is from a man that has 2 HDTV's). won't matter. won't boost sales.

 

[TheJollyCorner]

bluray/hd-dvd....some of you are giving it too much credit. it's too early (this is from a man that has 2 HDTV's). won't matter. won't boost sales.

are you shitting me? :lol

 

[Shinobi]

PSP's a PORTABLE system that was released in MARCH, not JUNE, JULY OR AUGUST (IE the dead of summer, IE the deadest time of the year for retailers), as some people are suggesting.

And since when did we start comparing portables to consoles anyway? For years I heard they were different markets altogether...now people are joining them at the fucking hip.

 

[hie]

are you shitting me?

no. what percentage of people have HDTV's again?

 

[snatches]

Nintendo got lost of Yamauchi and got Reggie (which probably influenced Iwata).

Sony has Sir Howard Stringer. period.

FIXED. Ken is Howard's bitch. We need Stringer in a pimp suit and Ken on a leash photoshop pic.

 

[Kolgar]

PS3's going to sell out as many units as Sony can make regardless of when they bring it out - so a summer launch in the US sure wouldn't hurt.

That said, I don't believe they'll do it. As others have said, the smart money's on Japan first.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

If they don't have enough consoles for an early NA launch, fuck it, save it for the holiday season.

 

[Lord Error]

Nintendo got lost of Yamauchi and got Reggie (which probably influenced Iwata).

Sony has Kutaragi. period.

You got that almost entirely the other way around.

Reggie is Nintendo's marketing goon. He probably has very little influence in their corporate decisions. Sony on the other hand now has a westerner for a president.

Not saying you are not right in the JP/US launch prediction, but what you stated there will not be the reason if it happens.

 

[snatches]

I just read this article on Next-Gen.biz, I'm not the only one speculating:

Another juicy rumor - wholly unconfirmed - is that Japan will not see the launch of PS3 until very late this year. Our sources were unable to make the connection about whether this means the U.S. launch will come at the same time, even later, or, just maybe, much earlier. This is where, unfortunately, we are left to speculate.


What if it's earlier?

The theory goes that Sony's play is not for the next generation games market at all. Microsoft's Xbox 360 is no more than an irritating diversion. The big play is for the high definition DVD market, and in this context, an early launch, with small hardware numbers and threadbare games software support might just be a good move.

This play potentially represents Sony's most important move in its entire history. Imagine; a royalty for Sony on every single DVD sold between 2006 and 2012 or thereabouts. No wonder Bill Gates hates Blu-ray.

The next generation DVD market is much, much bigger than the next generation games market. Owning the high definition DVD platform through Blu-Ray is Sony's number one priority for the next two years. Coming first in the next generation games market tags along for the ride.

The enemy is Toshiba

This spring, Toshiba will launch HD-DVD. Small numbers of ultra-high early adopters will be asked to pay up to $800 for the machine. But they will be nervous about making that commitment, if they see that Blu-ray is already available at a lower price, backed by Sony, albeit in savagely small numbers.

Here is where the first scuffles over the future of home entertainment will take place. It's important to draw first blood.

That's reason one. Reason two is Hollywood. This fall, the studios will be making a call on which formats to back. If Sony says, "We're launching PS3 at Thanksgiving with a million units," Hollywood will say, "Okay, great."

But Sony might be in a position to say, "We launched PS3 earlier this year, and they're still lining up around the block. We've sold 300,000 units, and we're now shifting 30,000 a week. We plan to sell another million over the holidays. Blu-ray is here." Many of the studios have made verbal commitments to Blu-ray, but that's a long way short of backing the platform with the high definition DVD versions of its summer movies.

Hollywood does not want a split format. It will do as much as it can to avoid this scenario. What it needs to see are numbers.

Michael Pachter, analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities says, "A lot of people in the games media are missing the picture here. This isn't about Sony versus Microsoft. This is about Sony versus Toshiba. Everything Sony does regarding PlayStation 3 is colored by that fact."

LINK

 

[soundwave05]

It used to be actually standard to launch consoles in August/September.

SNES, Playstation, Dreamcast, N64, etc. all launched in North America in August or September.

That's usually a good time to launch because you get your launch early adopters out of the way, and then you get second and third surges (Thanksigiving and then December).

It's also in North America the prime sports season ... the NFL season is in full swing with NBA and NHL about to start up.

Late November launches I think aren't ideal. Your first shipment sells out and then your scrambling to get more systems out for regular Christmas shoppers, and before you know it, Christmas is over. You really didn't get a Christmas boost at all ... you just sold your first batch of systems that you would've sold had you launched at any time of the year.

 

[fse]

no. what percentage of people have HDTV's again?

I think its less than %10 in the U.S.

 

[kaching]

PSP's a PORTABLE system that was released in MARCH, not JUNE, JULY OR AUGUST (IE the dead of summer, IE the deadest time of the year for retailers), as some people are suggesting.

And since when did we start comparing portables to consoles anyway? For years I heard they were different markets altogether...now people are joining them at the fucking hip.

They're both game platforms - I didn't say they were joined at the "fucking hip" but there's certainly some commonality, wouldn't you agree? In regards to launches, I'd say the needs are similar.

And please don't think that you can automatically constrain what I'm saying by what "some people are suggesting". I'd agree that the summer months are not likely. So it'll either be March-May or September-November. My bet's on April.

 

[WHOAguitarninja]

While I don't think it will happen, those really are quite good points.

I don't think sony would risk angering the japanese gamers that have stuck to their system for 2 consecutive generations. I don't think it would really matter in the long run (or probably even the short run) in Japan if they decided to do that, and would certainly help in the U.S., but I just don't see them doing it.

 

[hie]

I think its less than %10 in the U.S.

you are correct. so how does having an HD capable movie player give a company any advantage when your market is that small......and even less everywhere else in the world?

 

[TheJollyCorner]

but to say Blu-ray (or even HD-DVD) is not a factor or selling point is ridiculous, IMO.
Hell, it's one of the big reasons I would get a PS3 this year instead of waiting until 2007. I have this HDTV and it's practically useless right now. I'm not going to get COMCAST HD for like 5 channels (Home and Garden HD FTMFW) and even though component cables for my normal DVD player are nice, I want the next level.

I already know people who want PS3 mostly for the Blu-ray functionality and/or are waiting for PS3 over 360 specifically for that reason- so that alone attacks the argument that the high definition DVD is not much of a factor or selling point.

 

[Vark]

Need I remind you that game sales in the U.S. last year were comprised mainly of Madden, NBA, and NFS: MW ports?

Annnd the 360 won't have these titles why?

360 will have all the ports the PS3 has, and the 360 will have it's 2nd year titles. Sony NEEDS at least one or two hot exclusives (what they're working on now). Come christmas the 360 is going to have a lot of key genres out on the market.

 

[soundwave05]

you are correct. so how does having an HD capable movie player give a company any advantage when your market is that small......and even less everywhere else in the world?

Even a sub-10% figure indicates millions of households. And HDTV sales for 2006 are likely to eclipse current total HDTV sales period.

Simply put ... HDTV adoption is growing exponentially as the prices continue to drop.

In the US, for instance many people are buying HDTV prior to Super Bowl, because they want to have Super Bowl parties at their house, and they want a HDTV to impress their buddies/neighbours with.

 

[snatches]

Annnd the 360 won't have these titles why?

360 will have all the ports the PS3 has, and the 360 will have it's 2nd year titles. Sony NEEDS at least one or two hot exclusives (what they're working on now). Come christmas the 360 is going to have a lot of key genres out on the market.

Sony will have these titles and the Sony playstation brand + the buzz of new tech surrounding BluRay.

 

[TheJollyCorner]

Even a sub-10% figure indicates millions of households. And HDTV sales for 2006 are likely to eclipse current total HDTV sales period.

Simply put ... HDTV adoption is growing exponentially as the prices continue to drop.

^bingo

I got my 30" 1080i HDTV for a mere $399 (it's an Advent brand). Sure, it's a means to an end until I get a larger screen/better brand, but that's pretty damn good (pricewise) for a 'starter' HDTV.

 

[hie]

get Comcast. On Demand HD movies FTW.

i understand your point, but the % of people doing what you're saying (waiting for PS3 for bluray) is probably 1% out of the 10% of the HD market. not something i would bank on if i was a company. no videophile will be looking to SONY. SONY is a joke in the high-end audio/video world.

 

[choplifter]

na, PS3 won't be out until Oct-Nov in the U.S. after a Japanese launch anywhere from June to September

 

[kaching]

This is about Sony versus Toshiba. Everything Sony does regarding PlayStation 3 is colored by that fact."

...which is why they got Toshiba to help with the creation of Cell. Yeah.

 

[mashoutposse]

Sony is going to have their Playstation Festival in two weeks in Japan to let them know that the system is going to arrive first in another market entirely?

Somehow I doubt that that is the kind of "surprise" that the SCE exec was hinting at...

 

[snatches]

...which is why they got Toshiba to help with the creation of Cell. Yeah.

Sony partnering with Toshiba and IBM on cell was good business. They can be bitter enemies in one area and still mutual benefactors in another. Toshiba and HD-DVD is the single largest threat to Sony's economic future. All of Sony's eggs are in BluRay's basket. Sony didn't like sharing the license for DVD with several parties. They want it all to themselves this time.

 

[kaching]

Sony partnering with Toshiba and IBM on cell was good business. They can be bitter enemies in one area and still mutual benefactors in another.

I realize that, I was mostly commenting on the way Pachter's comment painted their relationship as purely adversarial.

 

[Lord Error]

Sony didn't like sharing the license for DVD with several parties. They want it all to themselves this time.

Uh, that's untrue. There's many companies in the BR consortium that will share the profits. There's no reason people should be insisting Sony is the only player there, when they have Panasonic which is probably as big, if not bigger BR supporter than them, and some other really big companies, like Philips too.

I realize that, I was mostly commenting on the way Pachter's comment painted their relationship as purely adversarial.

Media likes doing that... Reading certain articles, you'd think MS and Sony presidents would kill each other first chance they get, but even Gates said once that they find Sony to be their customer and partner in some areas (I suppose Vaio buisiness) and an opponent in others (home consoles). I guess it's not too unusual.

 

[snatches]

The point is that as the creator and owner of the intellectual property of the BluRay disc technology, Sony will earn residual income through licensing that they will not have to share with anyone. With DVD, they had to split licensing profits with philips and toshiba.

 

[Lord Error]

Maybe I'm missing something, but now they will have to share it with Panasonic and Phillips (at least?)

 

[kaching]

Sony is going to have their Playstation Festival in two weeks in Japan to let them know that the system is going to arrive first in another market entirely?

Depends on how staggered things are. If its only a matter of weeks or a couple of months, would it matter much?

 

[Sweedishrodeo]

lolerz this was a joke right

 

[snatches]

lolerz this was a joke right

no. thanks for the compelling post.

 

[Big Takeover]

I've always assumed one of the major reasons Sony travels from Japan -> US -> Europe was to maximize the manufacturing cost / exchange rate ratio.

For example, the PSP:

(Made up manufacturing costs! Yeah, I know that Japan has the "base" package. Done with today's exchange rate - 1 USD = 114.626 JPY / 1 EUR = 140.652 JPY)


-------region----------------msrp------------manufacturing cost--------profit

Japan -----------------------19,800 JPY------19,800 JPY----------------0 JPY

US (3 months later)--------$249.99---------16,000 JPY----------------12,646.49 JPY

Europe ( 9 months later)---249.99 Euro----12,000 JPY----------------35,180.43 JPY


Will they sacrifice their method of profit gaining to get bluray to the market fractionally quicker (or to counter MS, or whatever)? I have no idea, but I'm guessing Sony's bean counters will have a big say in that decision. The PS3 seems like easy money, and shouldn't be put at risk for the sake of bluray, which no matter when shipped will have an uncertain future.

 

[Pimpwerx]

Agreed.


With a likely end of this generation somewhere around: (give or take a few million)

PS2: 130M
Xbox: 27M
GCN: 25M

I think it's all but guaranteed that Sony won't

a) Outsell it's nearest competitor by ~500% or ~100M units.
b) Outsell it's two competitors by 270% or ~80M units.

The success of the PS2 can't be replicated next gen, even by the PS3. Sony will be very fortunate to hit 100M again, like they did with the PSOne. And they won't approach anywhere near a ~65% console market share in the console realm again. I think those days are now gone.

You could also guarantee that MS wouldn't do as miserably in JP as they did the first time around. They are doing worse so far. It was also assumed that Sony would lose marketshare this current gen too. Afterall, lightning struck once with the PS1. If the market keeps expanding, I don't see what's to stop them on the console front, besides themselves. They could always price the thing into stagnation. PEACE.

 

[Mrbob]

I guess it deends on how long you expect this next generation to last.

I personally think this next generation can easily last 10 years. PSone pushed about 6+ years of viability, PS2 will probably push around 8 years of viability. I expect PS3 may go around 10, or even more. Especially with Blu Ray involved. Over the long haul I certainly expect PS3 to outsell the PS2. If Blu Ray catches on as the hi definition movie standard then sales will go through the roof.

People need to stop thinking about the PS3 in terms of only strictly gaming. While it will do that, the PS3 is as much a movie player as it is a game player. Playstation 3 is getting dangerously close to being the all in one set top box we all have talked about for years.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

I hope this generation lasts 8-10 years. Just when games were hitting their stride, it was time for a new console. Now with systems that are supposed to be powerhouses, there's no reason to jump to Xbox 1080 and PlayStation 4 in another 5 years.

PlayStation 3 will launch in Japan first but like I've been saying, I don't expect it to hit retail there until August or September. The Xbox 360 disaster has bought Sony a few more months of elbow room, which will probably be used to let manufacturing prices drop, even if just slightly. Then it will probably launch in the US in October or November and in Europe in 2007.

You could also guarantee that MS wouldn't do as miserably in JP as they did the first time around

People said that because of all the new Japanese centric games like 99 Nights, Blue Dragon, and other games. They haven't been released yet. Nobody really expected Xbox 360 to pull any decent numbers in Japan. Maybe 1 to 2 million systems at the most, which it could still definitely reach.

It was also assumed that Sony would lose marketshare this current gen too

From that assumption, people thought Nintendo would get their shit together with the Game Cube, which clearly, they did not. Plus Sony had 18 months to sell millions of systems. Microsoft was too much of an uncertainty so third parties didn't embrace it much. So this assumption was made that the other manufacturers would keep it together.

Microsoft, despite the clusterfuck launch, is much more aggressive and will have a several million head start ahead of Sony. Might not mean much but with comparable technology at probably a cheaper price tag, Microsoft will retain an edge over Sony in technology. For the fact that its similar but cheaper as opposed to outright powerful. They've set this one up to their huge hit and they're not going to go down without a fight. During the first Xbox, Microsoft talked about how Xbox was just a trojan horse and the 360 was going to be the real deal.

Nintendo is employing a different strategy than PS2 lite + Nintendo games. It could work against them but it could just as easily work for them, resulting in millions of gamers to get a Revolution instead. The Virtual Console will be big. So will be the next Mario, provided its any good. A console online Mario Kart will be a massive hit. They already have so many advantages now compared to Game Cube, including a much shorter gap between the PS3 and Revolution than PS2 to GC.

So I agree with sonycowboy, I don't think PS3 will be selling 100+ million units. I still expect them to win but more of a 40/30/30 thing, 50/25/25 at the very most for Sony, give or take a few percentage points.

 

[sonycowboy]

You could also guarantee that MS wouldn't do as miserably in JP as they did the first time around. They are doing worse so far. It was also assumed that Sony would lose marketshare this current gen too. Afterall, lightning struck once with the PS1. If the market keeps expanding, I don't see what's to stop them on the console front, besides themselves. They could always price the thing into stagnation. PEACE.

I admit they've had their faces kicked in so far in Japan, but I do expect that it will end up quite a bit ahead of the ~500k in Japan they managed this gen. They've simply got too much Japanese development in the hopper already vs having none at this point last gen.

I'm not saying they're going to do ~well by any stretch, but they've got to beat what the Xbox sold this last time around.

But, then again, Japan isn't marching to anywhere near the same beat as the US or Europe, so who knows.

 

[Shinobi]

They're both game platforms - I didn't say they were joined at the "fucking hip" but there's certainly some commonality, wouldn't you agree? In regards to launches, I'd say the needs are similar.

It was more a general statement...two years ago most people were adament that comparing the two markets made about as much sense as comparing sales of cars to sales of tinned corn (something I never bought into myself). Now PSP/DS stuff is being used to predict what will happen in the next generation battle. I just find the shift interesting.

And please don't think that you can automatically constrain what I'm saying by what "some people are suggesting". I'd agree that the summer months are not likely. So it'll either be March-May or September-November. My bet's on April.

:lol I'm guessing you mean April '07...

...which is why they got Toshiba to help with the creation of Cell. Yeah.

:lol Well stuff like that happens all the time in that world...Sony and MS have probably partnered on a bunch of stuff over the years, despite their current "battle for the living room".

The point is that as the creator and owner of the intellectual property of the BluRay disc technology, Sony will earn residual income through licensing that they will not have to share with anyone. With DVD, they had to split licensing profits with philips and toshiba.

I thought it was Warner Bros who had virtually the entire industry bent over a table with the DVD license fee (thus the hell-bent rush to get a new format out there)?

 

[Last Hope]

I don't think it will happen buy you do have more compelling points than most "analysts."