I’m continually entertained by how many of you can’t wrap your heads around a 399.99 digital only version. Assuming the drive is 100 dollars. No you dunces. They will just take a steeper loss on a digital version because they will make it back on forced digital only purchases.
In areas where physical is more prevalent this works. In areas where digital is more prevalent it isn't that easy.
For example the US does quite well on digital, one of the main reasons is probably that new titles are typically the same price digitally as they are physically whereas in say Europe they're typically lower by a decent enough margin that buying digital just isn't very appealing.
On a full priced $60 game it depends whose estimates you trust, but taking an average, Sony/MS would make roughly $10 more on a digital sale vs. a physical sale.
So if your net loss on the digital console sale was $100 more compared to the optical drive version you would need to sell 10 games to every one who bought that digital edition to break even.
So far that sounds great, because I believe the current tie ratio sits around 15 games per console sold.
The trouble is people already buy digital games, so it is actually more than 10 games you'd need to sell because they're going to be buying those digital games anyway even if a digital edition didn't exist.
So going back to my earlier comment if your market is already buying more digital games then someone who buys a digital console is converting fewer of their purchases into digital. For example if the digital/physical split in the US is 50/50 (no idea what it is, maybe someone does, people keep saying digital is the majority now...) and assuming the tie ratio for this gen ends up being similar (15) then a digital console owner would be converting 7/8 physical purchases into digital ones meaning you're making $70/80 more than you would have otherwise done - not $150.
But it gets worse still, because the person who buys a digital console probably isn't your average user. So the ratio for their digital purchases probably isn't 50/50, but instead already favouring digital meaning it is even harder to recoup that $100.