I've been conflicted. My heart wants to invest, but I just don't think the figures support it.
My biggest issue is that the suggested $21 average sale is no way indicative of the original inflated sales figures.
The 1.2m digital sold probably sold around $1. That's 1.2m in sales.
Let's say the 480k units initially sold at an average of $40. That's 19.2m in sales.
So 20.4m in total sales/1.7m units = $12 average sale
That pushes the breakeven point to 1.2m units.
If it sells 1.7m units like the original, I stand to make $80 per $500 by the year 2028.
Even then, an average initial sale of $40 might be generous.
If $30: $9 ave. sale, 1.6m breakeven. (almost equal with the original figures)
If $20: $6 ave. sale, 2.2m breakeven (above Psychonauts sales but below Brutal Legend)
Those calculations, which seem far more realistic to me, drastically cut projected profits.
Plus, there are a lot more losses that this simple math doesn't account for, like the loss of 20k sales at max price due to backer rewards, and the portion of digital sales that were either people double dipping due to the rise of Steam and digital marketplaces or people buying humble bundles for reasons other than Psychonauts.
Sure there are gains to be made from these figures, like prospective buyers who became fans from digital sales, or people who may have rented the first but would buy the sequel. But I think the negatives far outweigh the positives.
Plus, as much as I love Tim and Double Fine, they weren't very good with managing the Broken Age money. Investing seemed like a dream a few years ago when crowdfunding was new, but the mismanagement or utter failure of many projects really killed that dream.
Regardless, I'm curious to see how investors do.