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[Eteric Rice]

It's not as simple as dedicating teams, or expanding. Who needs a wii 2, seriously? The market is not ready AT ALL to buy a wii 2 on top of the 3DS. Nintendo can't afford to cannibalize and jeopardize its handheld chances with a new console, among such smartphone/NGP competition

Besides, Mario Kart, Nintendo's best system seller, is releasing this year... on 3DS = this means no chance to see a new Nintendo console before end of 2012, at the earliest.

How long after the DS did the Wii come out?

 

[Futureman]

DS released late 2004, Wii came out late 2006.

Has there been any speculation as to what the Wii 2's unique feature will be? I think that matters more than when the 3DS is being released.

 

[Vinci]

How long after the DS did the Wii come out?

I'd expect more time if I were you. The new console will be Nintendo's first efforts developing in HD, and there's a lot of testing they'll have to go through prior to bringing anything out. We might hear about the next console before the two-year mark, but I doubt we'll see it.

EDIT @ Futureman: Quite a bit over the years, but honestly I don't think anyone feels very confident about his or her suggestions.

 

[Doc Holliday]

DS released late 2004, Wii came out late 2006.

Has there been any speculation as to what the Wii 2's unique feature will be? I think that matters more than when the 3DS is being released.

Well the Ds Lite came out in in march 2006 and that was a huge launch.

 

[Deku]

Iwata mused about a DS successor then denied its existance in 2009.

A sucessor is probably near completion now. The real question is timing, not if it exists.

It exists.

 

[Graphics Horse]

I'd expect more time if I were you. The new console will be Nintendo's first efforts developing in HD, and there's a lot of testing they'll have to go through prior to bringing anything out.

Are you assuming they only started working on a Wii successor once they'd released the 3DS? I don't see why that would be.

 

[Screenboy]

Wii will be dead by xmas 2011

 

[FoneBone]

I don't see them launching a Wii successor any earlier than Fall 2012... but I don't see it happening any later, either. Call me naive if you want.

 

[GrotesqueBeauty]

The mobile market is much more strategic.
They can still sell wii to satisfying level by decreasing the price and going to growth markets.

Nintendo needs focus. They need to make 3DS a huge success before thinking of expanding this success to a new home console. And that's exactly what they say they will do.

Yeah, they're focusing pretty heavily on the 3DS (and they should). We won't see a new console from Nintendo for at least another two years.

Both the 3DS and a new console? Perhaps, but they're still going to lead any new hardware's first couple of years with their best teams to guarantee the system's momentum. For them to pump out HD titles from their big teams, which haven't even hit the 3DS full force? I'd still say two years, at least.

Who knows, you might be right though.

It's not as simple as dedicating teams, or expanding. Who needs a wii 2, seriously? The market is not ready AT ALL to buy a wii 2 on top of the 3DS. Nintendo can't afford to cannibalize and jeopardize its handheld chances with a new console, among such smartphone/NGP competition

Besides, Mario Kart, Nintendo's best system seller, is releasing this year... on 3DS = this means no chance to see a new Nintendo console before end of 2012, at the earliest.

I don't see what the big discrepancy is between what you guys are saying and my holiday 2012 prediction. It's nearly 2 years away, and gives the 3DS breathing room to grow. I feel pretty secure with my guess, actually. Stretching it all the way to holiday 2013 doesn't seem feasible to me as the rate the Wii's been losing steam.

 

[Cyborg]

Wii will be dead by xmas 2011

I see what you did there

 

[Jokeropia]

Wii will be dead by xmas 2011

It can be "dead" before then, but come Christmas it will be very much alive.

 

[Woffls]

Honestly, I'm tempted to ignore Reggie's 45m comment and expect a subtle hint at E3 this year, confirmation and details at TGS11, and a full reveal at E312 with release Holiday 2012. This would make the most sense considering the cycles of all 3 platforms and their handheld division. It's massively downhill from here, and all I think they've got in them is a little spike from the vitality sensor later this year providing they actually make use of it.

 

[FoneBone]

It can be "dead" before then, but come Christmas it will be very much alive.

Relative to the rest of the year, sure, but I don't expect the system to reverse its year-over-year declines.

Honestly, I'm tempted to ignore Reggie's 45m comment

I don't think anyone should take that at face value; all it really means is "we're not ready to talk about it now, and that'll change whenever we're ready."

 

[Graphics Horse]

I don't know why people keep bringing up the vitality sensor like it was a good idea, I don't know, maybe they'll prove me wrong but the complete silence since its reveal doesn't inspire confidence.

I don't see them launching a Wii successor any earlier than Fall 2012... but I don't see it happening any later, either. Call me naive if you want.

You're naive

Spoiler

I agree

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Honestly, I'm tempted to ignore Reggie's 45m comment and expect a subtle hint at E3 this year, confirmation and details at TGS11, and a full reveal at E312 with release Holiday 2012. This would make the most sense considering the cycles of all 3 platforms and their handheld division. It's massively downhill from here, and all I think they've got in them is a little spike from the vitality sensor later this year providing they actually make use of it.

Announcing early kills whatever momentum, declining though it may be, the Wii has. Iwata hit the Gamecube in the head with a hammer, the Wii is not that far gone yet.

Unless the 3DS is just, like, a massive, untold failure, Nintendo has nothing to gain from announcing the system any time this year.

 

[farnham]

Wii will be dead by xmas 2011

well analysts said wii will be dead on arrival and it is in zombie state since 2006 according to most of the gaffers

 

[Jokeropia]

Relative to the rest of the year, sure, but I don't expect the system to reverse its year-over-year declines.

Relative to the rest of the year and in absolute terms. It was #1 last year (in US as well as WW), it can keep declining and still not be dead. (Stopping the decline isn't out of the question either if it gets a price drop.)

 

[Woffls]

Announcing early kills whatever momentum, declining though it may be, the Wii has. Iwata hit the Gamecube in the head with a hammer, the Wii is not that far gone yet.

Unless the 3DS is just, like, a massive, untold failure, Nintendo has nothing to gain from announcing the system any time this year.

Maybe they'll hold off on a formal announcement until next year, then, but I do expect it to launch next year unless Wii has a really successful year. That said, extension strategies aren't always the best idea anyway, and maybe they need a clean break from Wii so that people know it's something new and different?

I agree they've no reason to formally announce a successor until next year, but starting to discuss it as a project in 2011 wouldn't be that harmful, would it?

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Maybe they'll hold off on a formal announcement until next year, then, but I do expect it to launch next year unless Wii has a really successful year. That said, extension strategies aren't always the best idea anyway, and maybe they need a clean break from Wii so that people know it's something new and different?

I agree they've no reason to formally announce a successor until next year, but starting to discuss it as a project in 2011 wouldn't be that harmful, would it?

Well, people already think Zelda is going to get ported to the next system and are willing to wait, which undermines Nintendo's bottom line. They don't want people thinking about what's after, they want you to buy what they have now.

Hell, the 3DS comes out in a matter of weeks but NOA has held off on advertising because they want to sell Pokemon DSi's first.

The one thing the Gamecube could really hang its hat on when the Wii was announced at E3 2005 was Twilight Princess and most people just ended up getting it on Wii. Nintendo says "Oh hey you know a Wii 2 might be coming in 2012" this year and suddenly everyone that might buy a Wii for Zelda or Kirby or, I don't know, Rhythm Tengoku will just go "HEY YOU KNOW I MIGHT JUST KEEP THIS MONEY FOR ASSASSIN'S CREED 3"

 

[HylianScribe]

Announcing early kills whatever momentum, declining though it may be, the Wii has. Iwata hit the Gamecube in the head with a hammer, the Wii is not that far gone yet.

Unless the 3DS is just, like, a massive, untold failure, Nintendo has nothing to gain from announcing the system any time this year.

Just wanted to point out something...

Nintendo announced Super Nintendo almost 2 years before it came out, most publications referred to it as Super Famicom until it got it's official name (not sure what official project name was).
Nintendo announced Nintendo 64 2+ years before it came out, codename Project Reality.
Nintendo announced GCN 2+ years before it came out, codename Dolphin.
Nintendo announced Wii 2+ years before it came out, codename Revolution.

Every single major console follow-up in Nintendo's history was announced roughly 2 years ahead of its release, and several times, while the current gen console was still going strong. This theory about it "killing" a system is not a very strong one. You show correlation and time order, but you fail to prove the third and final requirement of causality. Not to mention, what do you have to say about the above facts?

 

[Vinci]

Are you assuming they only started working on a Wii successor once they'd released the 3DS? I don't see why that would be.

No, I've no doubt that the hardware and some software concepts have been drawn up for quite some time for the Wii's successor. They likely have its 'gimmick' worked out and everything. But this is going to require a shift in Nintendo's software development methods - from SD to HD - and I doubt they'll be able to put something out in a quick timeframe.

 

[Graphics Horse]

No, I've no doubt that the hardware and some software concepts have been drawn up for quite some time for the Wii's successor. They likely have its 'gimmick' worked out and everything. But this is going to require a shift in Nintendo's software development methods - from SD to HD - and I doubt they'll be able to put something out in a quick timeframe.

There's no shift needed, they're quite competent at developing games which look good at higher than intended resolutions. If they want practice at modern shaders they could have been testing on a PC for god knows how long.

 

[FoneBone]

As far as 2013 goes... I can't see them launching it outside the fall period (I don't think that's happened since the Saturn), and there seems little room to doubt that the Wii would be coasting on fumes come that year. It's not a good position from which to launch.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Just wanted to point out something...

Nintendo announced Super Nintendo almost 2 years before it came out, most publications referred to it as Super Famicom until it got it's official name (not sure what official project name was).
Nintendo announced Nintendo 64 2+ years before it came out, codename Project Reality.
Nintendo announced GCN 2+ years before it came out, codename Dolphin.
Nintendo announced Wii 2+ years before it came out, codename Revolution.

Every single major console follow-up in Nintendo's history was announced roughly 2 years ahead of its release, and several times, while the current gen console was still going strong. This theory about it "killing" a system is not a very strong one. You show correlation and time order, but you fail to prove the third and final requirement of causality. Not to mention, what do you have to say about the above facts?

Because since Iwata has taken over, we have had one situation where this has happened in three system launches. That one situation being in a system he basically declared dead and nowhere near the selling power of the Wii, decline or not.

The DS was announced one year before release in November of 2003. The 3DS was announced one year before release in March of 2010 with an original projected release of November of 2010, only delayed to shore up the production numbers.

The Wii isn't the Gamecube. Iwata isn't Yamauchi. Iwata killed the GC because a profitable third place was not as good as a profitable first place.

I don't think they are sitting in an office in Kyoto, waiting for the two-year-before-next-console-time day to announce. They're going by what will make them the most money.

 

[FoneBone]

The DS was announced one year before release in November of 2003.

Wrong, January '04. I distinctly recall this.

fake edit: I think the initial "third pillar" confirmation was in November, but I think that's too vague to really qualify.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Wrong, January '04. I distinctly recall this.

fake edit: I think the initial "third pillar" confirmation was in November, but I think that's too vague to really qualify.

November was the "We are making a new handheld" thing. The name did not come until the following January, when they confirmed the DS codename.

 

[Woffls]

The DS was announced one year before release in November of 2003. The 3DS was announced one year before release in March of 2010 with an original projected release of November of 2010, only delayed to shore up the production numbers.

Doesn't that line up with a TGS11 announcement for Fall/Holiday 2012 release, though?

I agree that precedent already set by pre-Iwata Nintendo isn't really a strong enough comparison because of how much things have changed for Nintendo. They're in a very different position in the console space now, so they're even less predictable than usual, which is fun!

 

[FoneBone]

November was the "We are making a new handheld" thing.

No it wasn't. It wasn't specified as a handheld until January. Yes, this is anal-retentive.

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

Alberto, unless you've got some data to show the effects of an early announcement (and can somehow separate this out from the fact that the GC was a sales failure throughout most of its lifetime anyway) you're just idly speculating about what Nintendo "must" do or "can't" do regarding announcements.

As far as the "Market isn't ready" goes, I think that's garbage. The market will eat up a new console whenever you release one, it's gobbling up the 3DS and it will gobble up to NGP and if it came out this year, it would eat up Super Wii as well. "The market wasn't ready" last year too but that didn't stop Kinect from becoming a juggernaut, including a large number of new console sales that pretty much maintained overall console momentum (when you combine the three together). "The market wasn't ready" this year but a goddamn 299 handheld sold great in Japan and a 249 handheld is going to sell great in America.

When new consoles come out, people just buy the new one instead of the old one. Unless Nintendo goes for a $599 box or something crazy like that, the market will be ready for it.

 

[Sadist]

Doesn't that line up with a TGS11 announcement for Fall/Holiday 2012 release, though?

I agree that precedent already set by pre-Iwata Nintendo isn't really a strong enough comparison because of how much things have changed for Nintendo. They're in a very different position in the console space now, so they're even less predictable than usual, which is fun!

Nintendo never attends TGS

 

[ShockingAlberto]

No it wasn't. It wasn't specified as a handheld until January. Yes, this is anal-retentive.

I am retroactively right here.

http://www.n-sider.com/contentview.php?contentid=515

Mainichi interview posted after January announcement, but was given before the announcement.

It is a 'unique' machine, so not everybody will understand it right away. There might only be 10 to 15 people applauding during its unveiling at E3, but they'll understand it once they touch it. At the least, it should serve as a hint towards [our] next-generation console.

But yeah, I concede the timeline is wonky and you're correct.

Alberto, unless you've got some data to show the effects of an early announcement (and can somehow separate this out from the fact that the GC was a sales failure throughout most of its lifetime anyway) you're just idly speculating about what Nintendo "must" do or "can't" do regarding announcements.

I can see how idle speculation and discussion of how precedent affects modern decisions would be totally out of place here. We could just get Dr. Gakman back in here to talk about how it will be released this summer and will be like Kinect and Move combined with a VR helmet for some real discussion.

If you disagree, say so. I'm making predictions, Nintendo doesn't listen to me. Posting my opinions won't automatically make them hold off for years.

 

[Woffls]

Nintendo never attends TGS

The Nintendo 'Might as Well be at TGS' Fall Conference, then I'm sure they do that at roughly the same time? That's what my shitty memory tells me anyway.

Anywaaayyy I think we'll here something this year. No names, no dates, no prices, no controllers, no specs, no footage, no confirmed titles.... just concepts and ideas with some teaser trailers.

/i don't think Nintendo can pull off a sufficient enough extension strategy to pull Wii through 2012, and holding off any longer is going to start running the risk of other console releases.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Alberto, unless you've got some data to show the effects of an early announcement (and can somehow separate this out from the fact that the GC was a sales failure throughout most of its lifetime anyway) you're just idly speculating about what Nintendo "must" do or "can't" do regarding announcements.

As far as the "Market isn't ready" goes, I think that's garbage. The market will eat up a new console whenever you release one, it's gobbling up the 3DS and it will gobble up to NGP and if it came out this year, it would eat up Super Wii as well. "The market wasn't ready" last year too but that didn't stop Kinect from becoming a juggernaut, including a large number of new console sales that pretty much maintained overall console momentum (when you combine the three together). "The market wasn't ready" this year but a goddamn 299 handheld sold great in Japan and a 249 handheld is going to sell great in America.

When new consoles come out, people just buy the new one instead of the old one. Unless Nintendo goes for a $599 box or something crazy like that, the market will be ready for it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wang_Laboratories#Decline_and_fall

First vaporware announcement ever. I've always heard that people stopped buying the current model because they knew the new model was on the way, and that lack of income on their current models hurt them enough financially that they became diminished and eventually went out of business.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

They will think about to release Wii successor when the developers has no new surprise (idea) on Wii

WELCOME TO 2009!

 

[phisheep]

When new consoles come out, people just buy the new one instead of the old one. Unless Nintendo goes for a $599 box or something crazy like that, the market will be ready for it.

No.

There's a whole squillion people out there with a Wii who know jack shit about console generations and have no understanding of why games for a console should drop off every four or five or six years.

Met a guy the other week, young lad, keen 360 gamer, who has to get permission from his mom to borrow the Wii so he can play the Eternal Darkness I lent him.

He understands the console cycle, his Mom doesn't.

 

[camineet]

Whenever Nintendo decides to release a new console it will be a HUGE MASSIVE leap from the Wii in visuals. Lets not forget what Wii is. The Wii is not even 2 Gamecubes ducktaped together. Wii is a GameCube 1.5 with more RAM. It's in some ways less powerful than the original Xbox (no true shaders, no HDD) although it's more powerful than original Xbox in some areas (fillrate, embedded RAM). The Wii's GPU, Hollywood, is Flipper clocked 1.5x faster. The Flipper was thought up in 1998 and designed mainly in 1999 according to ArtX themselves in an IGN interview http://cube.ign.com/articles/099/099520p1.html

Greg Buchner: I'm vice president of engineering, ATI.

IGNcube: You say you began talking to Nintendo® in 1998. So from white paper designs and initial design to final mass production silicon how long was the development process?

Greg Buchner: Well, there was a period of time where we were in the brainstorm period, figuring out what to build, what's the right thing to create. We spent a reasonable amount of time on that, a really big chunk of 1998 was spend doing that, figuring out just what [Flipper] was going to be. In 1999 we pretty much cranked out the gates, cranked out the silicon and produced the first part. In 2000 we got it ready for production, so what you saw at Space World last year was basically what became final silicon.

So both Hollywood and Flipper architecture (basicly exactly the same minus clockspeed) was designed in the late 1990s. The CPUs (Gekko and Broadway) are even older. IBM designed the G3 in the mid 1990s. So Nintendo should be moving us forward at least two full console generations with their next console. The 3DS is nearly a 100x leap from the DS in graphics. So expect the very least from the next console.

 

[camineet]

Just wanted to point out something...

Nintendo announced Super Nintendo almost 2 years before it came out, most publications referred to it as Super Famicom until it got it's official name (not sure what official project name was).
Nintendo announced Nintendo 64 2+ years before it came out, codename Project Reality.
Nintendo announced GCN 2+ years before it came out, codename Dolphin.
Nintendo announced Wii 2+ years before it came out, codename Revolution.

Every single major console follow-up in Nintendo's history was announced roughly 2 years ahead of its release, and several times, while the current gen console was still going strong. This theory about it "killing" a system is not a very strong one. You show correlation and time order, but you fail to prove the third and final requirement of causality. Not to mention, what do you have to say about the above facts?

The Super Famicom / Super Nintendo was announced either in late 1988 or mid 1989. I remember picking up EGM issue #2 in July 1989 and reading all about the Super Famicom.

 

[1-D_FTW]

I don't know why people keep bringing up the vitality sensor like it was a good idea, I don't know, maybe they'll prove me wrong but the complete silence since its reveal doesn't inspire confidence.]

Because it's a great idea. But it should be built into the controller and I've been on record as stating it would be from almost the time it was announced.

Here's Gabe Newell explaining why it's going to be awesome:

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-valve-biometrics-blog-entry

 

[camineet]

Iwata mused about a DS successor then denied its existance in 2009.

A sucessor is probably near completion now. The real question is timing, not if it exists.

It exists.

I agree.

Nintendo has almost certainly developed new console hardware to replace the Wii. They've probably gone through several concepts. Perhaps one got canceled. Remember Nintendo was working on a "Nintendo 128" aka N2000 with Silicon Graphics in 1997 which got canceled when Nintendo decided not to work with SGI anymore. Nintendo also was working on a version of the 3DO MX (not M2 but basicly M2.5 or M3) with CagEnt (the 3DO Systems group) wrapped around a MIPS CPU instead of PowerPC in 1997-1998 just before they signed deals with ArtX and IBM for the Dolphin/GameCube.

I'm sure we'll hear Iwata mention a new console in development at E3, ala Iwata mentioning that Revolution was in development at E3 2004. That was like 2.5 years before Wii came out.

 

[Bear]

Looks at first party release list:

2011:
Zelda

...'

People repeat this every year, but for this entire generation Nintendo has been revealing games when they are close to release, with very few exceptions (like Zelda). Donkey Kong Country Returns was a pretty major release, and that was announced E3 2010 and released the following November. Same with New Super Mario Bros Wii at E3 2010

Regarding 2011, they recently announced Kirby, a Pokemon Wii game, Rhythm Tengoku and a new IP. Going by Miyamoto's comments over the last year, Pikmin 3 has a pretty good chance of an E3 showing and I wouldn't count out a 2011 release. Nintendo regularly has at least one heavyweight reveal at E3 for release that holiday, and numerous smaller ones, so I'd wait until we actually know their lineup before judging it.

 

[camineet]

There just getting started again so no E3 2011 reveal. No doubt they'll talk about it next year at GDC or something.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

There just getting started again so no E3 2011 reveal. No doubt they'll talk about it next year at GDC or something.

Context?

 

[Lord_Byron28]

People repeat this every year, but for this entire generation Nintendo has been revealing games when they are close to release, with very few exceptions (like Zelda). Donkey Kong Country Returns was a pretty major release, and that was announced E3 2010 and released the following November. Same with New Super Mario Bros Wii at E3 2010

Regarding 2011, they recently announced Kirby, a Pokemon Wii game, Rhythm Tengoku and a new IP. Going by Miyamoto's comments over the last year, Pikmin 3 has a pretty good chance of an E3 showing and I wouldn't count out a 2011 release. Nintendo regularly has at least one heavyweight reveal at E3 for release that holiday, and numerous smaller ones, so I'd wait until we actually know their lineup before judging it.

This is exactly what I think. People have been saying Wii succesor since late 2008. I think there is still momentum left in the Wii assuming Pikmin, Zelda, and Wii Relax are all still in development. People were saying doom and gloom for Wii in 2009 and 2010. In 2009, we saw Punchout, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, and New Super Mario Bros. In 2010, we got Super Mario Galaxy 2, Monster Hunter 3, Metroid: Other M, Kirby's Epic Yarn, Wii Party and Donkey Kong Country Returns. On top of lots of smaller titles. I also find it ridiculous the amount of people who compare the Wii's software drought to anything close to the Gamecube's.

 

[AceBandage]

Whoa whoa whoa...

ShockingAlberto
Banned
(02-28-2011, 04:10 PM)
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The hell?!

 

[apana]

Whoa whoa whoa...

ShockingAlberto
Banned
(02-28-2011, 04:10 PM)
Reply | Quote

The hell?!

I think I read a thread where him and Darkman M called each other douchebags or something.

 

[[Nintex]]

This is exactly what I think. People have been saying Wii succesor since late 2008. I think there is still momentum left in the Wii assuming Pikmin, Zelda, and Wii Relax are all still in development. People were saying doom and gloom for Wii in 2009 and 2010. In 2009, we saw Punchout, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, and New Super Mario Bros. In 2010, we got Super Mario Galaxy 2, Monster Hunter 3, Metroid: Other M, Kirby's Epic Yarn, Wii Party and Donkey Kong Country Returns. On top of lots of smaller titles. I also find it ridiculous the amount of people who compare the Wii's software drought to anything close to the Gamecube's.

Yeah me too, at this point in its life the GameCube still had some cool third party games slated.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Whoa whoa whoa...

ShockingAlberto
Banned
(02-28-2011, 04:10 PM)
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The hell?!

Solidarity for the fallen brother!

 

[FunkyPajamas]

I think I read a thread where him and Darkman M called each other douchebags or something.

oh, wow. unexpected. hopefully he'll be back soon.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Yeah me too, at this point in its life the GameCube still had some cool third party games slated.

I was referring to the software drought of 2003 compared to 2009 where everyone started begging for Wii succesor. That's the only time in both systems lifespan where there was a dip in software releases. Gamecube had Mario Kart. Wii had sequels to Wii Sports, Wii Fit and New Super Mario Bros. As of right now I'd say things are more comparable with RE4, Twilight Princess and Super Paper Mario on the horizon and DQX, Skyward Sword, Pikmin 3 and Vitality Sensor on the horizon.

 

[Boney]

Whoa whoa whoa...

ShockingAlberto
Banned
(02-28-2011, 04:10 PM)
Reply | Quote

The hell?!

waaaaaaaaaaaaaat

i need answers inmediatly! hope it's a short ban.