Sounds like holiday 2016 is almost completely off the table.
2017 it is.
The general rule is launch occurs four to six months after mass production starts. Production starting in July/August and releasing in November fits that schedule perfect. Having a limited quantity is Nintendo's standard MO as well. If they run into production delays it could be Q1 2017, but given the investor pressure on Nintendo right now I would expect the NX to launch in November regardless of how many systems they can put on shelves.