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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

Another comical thing about Germany is that they have the largest vehicle in the world which is for mining coal. But it's worst form of coal Lignite which yields less energy for more CO2 and Sulfur. They kept this thing running while shutting down the nuclear power plants. They're also planning to decommissioning these but apparently are reversing course amid the energy turmoil.

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Blame Merkel and/or our green party. Fukushima melted down a bit and Merkel decided that it's a good enough reason to shut down nuclear in Germany, just because the Greens put her under massive pressure. Bigly mistake.
 

Sakura

Member
Not every scenario, just ones like little Ukraine vs big Russia. They could have negotiated Donetsk and Donbass being independent and official recognition of Crimea when this thing started. It was even propositioned IIRC. After all the fighting though, I don't think they'll be satisfied with only that. The longer this thing goes on, the more emboldened they become. Ask Kissinger.
Russia didn't go through all that trouble just to get recognition of a territory they already have, and the other half of the Donbas.
Even if we go with your idea, what makes you think that in a couple years time Russia wouldn't do it again? After all, they would basically have gotten stuff for free simply by threatening.
"Hey we want Kherson and Zaporizhzhia now. Give it to us or we will invade."
"Yeah OK I guess we have no choice."
At some point Ukraine would no longer have the capability to defend herself at all from total annexation.
 
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Bitmap Frogs

Mr. Community
Not much news on the front:

Sverodonetsk is in a weird situation: logistics have become a nightmare and ukrainians are fighting back from the local industrial complex - but unlike mariupol, they control the high ground next to the city so they're shelling the orcs.

Counter offensive in izium area has allowed the ua to recover some villages and gain positions that are within 10-15 kilometers from the city itself, potentially gaining access to juicy logistical targets.

Counter offensive in kherson is centered around davidy brin, where ukrainians stabilized a salient sw of the city - meanwhile they keep pushing and prodding from all directions.
 
Russia didn't go through all that trouble just to get recognition of a territory they already have, and the other half of the Donbas.
Even if we go with your idea, what makes you think that in a couple years time Russia wouldn't do it again? After all, they would basically have gotten stuff for free simply by threatening.
"Hey we want Kherson and Zaporizhzhia now. Give it to us or we will invade."
"Yeah OK I guess we have no choice."
At some point Ukraine would no longer have the capability to defend herself at all from total annexation.
I think Russia wants respect as a super power more than they want Ukrainian clay. The areas they asked for are low maintenance. Many of the people who live there are already bought in. They've had referendums to prove as much.

It also buys the western world time to take back their industry and energy production. As it stands today we have been outplayed. Europe depends on their gas, America depends on their fertilizer. I think with ten years and the fresh memory of handing over that land, we could fix a lot of that and put ourselves in a more tenable position. A lot of these would-be concessions are a direct result of us not nourishing our industrial independence.
 

Tams

Member
I think Russia wants respect as a super power more than they want Ukrainian clay. The areas they asked for are low maintenance. Many of the people who live there are already bought in. They've had referendums to prove as much.

It also buys the western world time to take back their industry and energy production. As it stands today we have been outplayed. Europe depends on their gas, America depends on their fertilizer. I think with ten years and the fresh memory of handing over that land, we could fix a lot of that and put ourselves in a more tenable position. A lot of these would-be concessions are a direct result of us not nourishing our industrial independence.
1. Well, they've done a bang up job there...
2. Russian backed referendums are a joke.
3. By 'low maintenance', you mean forgotten and left to live in poverty, like much of Russia already.
 

TwinB242

Member
Russia is now trying to revoke the Baltic states' sovereignty starting with Lithuania in an attempt to get them out of NATO


Its so obvious that they have major ambitions to fuck with other countries and Ukraine is just the beginning. I thought Zelensky and Ukrainian officials were exaggerating a bit when they would say that Ukraine is defending all of Europe, but its clear that they're 100% right. Handing Russia any kind of victory would only embolden them further. They have to be defeated in Ukraine or the Baltic countries will be next in line for 'de-nazification'.
 
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Tams

Member
Russia is now trying to revoke the Baltic states' sovereignty starting with Lithuania in an attempt to get them out of NATO


Its so obvious that they have major ambitions to fuck with other countries and Ukraine is just the beginning. I thought Zelensky and Ukrainian officials were exaggerating a bit when they would say that Ukraine is defending all of Europe, but its clear that they're 100% right. Handing Russia any kind of victory would only embolden them further. They have to be defeated in Ukraine or the Baltic countries will be next in line for 'de-nazification'.
This is going to end up with Nato boots on the ground (and not just of the members Russia is targetting) at this rate. If so, then we should do so sooner rather than later.

I honestly thought Russia weren't this stupid. That if they got Ukraine (or a good chunk of it), that they might push their luck with Georgia again, Moldova (which to be clear would be terrible). But here we seem to be heading.
 
This is going to end up with Nato boots on the ground (and not just of the members Russia is targetting) at this rate. If so, then we should do so sooner rather than later.

I honestly thought Russia weren't this stupid. That if they got Ukraine (or a good chunk of it), that they might push their luck with Georgia again, Moldova (which to be clear would be terrible). But here we seem to be heading.

Get ready. Looks like World War III is on the menu. Learn to digest it. Regardless... I've enjoyed my time here, on GAF and on Earth. If this is the end of us, or most of us... It has certainly been a bumpy pleasure.
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
They're fighting a war to keep the very top of their government out of a Russian prison. The scenario with the least amount of lives lost was their gov surrendering day 1.
That is terrible, and you are terrible.
Get ready. Looks like World War III is on the menu. Learn to digest it. Regardless... I've enjoyed my time here, on GAF and on Earth. If this is the end of us, or most of us... It has certainly been a bumpy pleasure.
Shut the fuck up.
 
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Karlinel

Banned
Not every scenario, just ones like little Ukraine vs big Russia. They could have negotiated Donetsk and Donbass being independent and official recognition of Crimea when this thing started. It was even propositioned IIRC. After all the fighting though, I don't think they'll be satisfied with only that. The longer this thing goes on, the more emboldened they become. Ask Kissinger.
I really have to wonder if you are at least thinking the depth of the depravity, stupidity and shamefulness of what you are saying. Because it is staggering.
 
I really have to wonder if you are at least thinking the depth of the depravity, stupidity and shamefulness of what you are saying. Because it is staggering.

I havent been very active in this thread as of late, but you can search through it and I was early in staring the goal of Western involvement should be to repel Russian advances into Ukraine proper and then turn off the conflict as soon as possible while returning to a quasi-Minsk II state.

Instead, the west saw a chance to big the Russians a black eye and sell defense aid to the Ukrainians. As I warned about from early on, the force balance is such that the initial sucesses will reverse as the sheer mass of Russian forces wears down the inferior Ukrainians. Ukrainians are amazing people and have fought valiantly, but this was a war of naked aggression. That has been stopped and reversed. Before even more innocents die, it should have been turned off and negotiated a return to a stable state based on the pre-invasion boundaries. Pushing Russians out of Ukraine, something that wasn't the case for years, is a bad idea and frankly, we're now going to lose.

Also, the Russian threats about the Baltic States is ridiculous. Like 80+% of the Russian military is involved in Ukraine last I heard. The Ukrainians chewed up most of their front-line BTGs. Their supply and logistics are shit. And now they're going to take on NATO? They better keep those remaining second-line troop close because you never know when the elite inner circle will have had enough of this. Let the hardliners dream.
 
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akimbo009

Gold Member
You should take the threat of Nukes at face value. I have lived through the 80s. I was scared, so were my parents. I was saying the Pledge of Allegiance. Then... soviet collapse... my school(s) back, then, taught about it. Relief.

Totally irrelevant, and assuming my age. You're a fucking idiot, and apparently more of a kid than I am. As an apparent old fucker I call your dumb ass as someone who needs to go get properly educated. Happy to do that, but start from page 1 of the OP, and comeback on that.
 

Tams

Member
sell defense aid to the Ukrainians

While yes, we are doing this, to suggest it is a major motive other than as a meme is a joke. Stop. Or maybe don't and reveal your true self more to us.

Also, Minsk was a joke. Russia has no business being in Ukraine, self-declared republics or not.

Need I remind you it was Russian (at least led) idiots who shot down a passenger plane?
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
While yes, we are doing this, to suggest it is a major motive other than as a meme is a joke. Stop. Or maybe don't and reveal your true self more to us.

Also, Minsk was a joke. Russia has no business being in Ukraine, self-declared republics or not.

Need I remind you it was Russian (at least led) idiots who shot down a passenger plane?

You are shouting into the void. They are stupid, and there is no value in the debate. Just keep supporting the heroes and find happiness in every dead Russian.
 
I really have to wonder if you are at least thinking the depth of the depravity, stupidity and shamefulness of what you are saying. Because it is staggering.
Nooooo. Not my Zelenskyino! He wears t-shirts! He's like us!!! You're the one willing to sacrifice thousands of working men in Ukraine to preserve his freedom, but I'm ghoulish??
 
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Tams

Member
Nooooo. Not my Zelenskyino! He wears t-shirts! He's like us!!! You're the one willing to sacrifice thousands of working men in Ukraine to preserve his freedom, but I'm ghoulish??
Z-bot, shut it.

He was elected, with his popularity greatly increasing upon deciding to lead Ukraine in standing and fighting.

You seem incapable of recognising that many Ukrainian ordinary people wanted to and still want to fight and defend their home.

You are literally spouting Kremlin lines and have the same shitty condescending attitude that they have. Forcing people to fight to protect their own arses is exactly what they would do if the boot were on the other foot.

I don't know if you are a shill or just really fucking dense, but you aren't welcome here. Go shit up some other online forum.
 

RJMacready73

Simps for Amouranth
Z-bot, shut it.

He was elected, with his popularity greatly increasing upon deciding to lead Ukraine in standing and fighting.

You seem incapable of recognising that many Ukrainian ordinary people wanted to and still want to fight and defend their home.

You are literally spouting Kremlin lines and have the same shitty condescending attitude that they have. Forcing people to fight to protect their own arses is exactly what they would do if the boot were on the other foot.

I don't know if you are a shill or just really fucking dense, but you aren't welcome here. Go shit up some other online forum.

M8 I don't know why you're arguing or even engaging with that cunt tbf, he's a drop his bags & bend over at the first sign of trouble kinda moron and not really worth engaging with
 

FunkMiller

Member


Well this is a surprise


Great. Absolutely the right approach. Hoping to hear Germany and Italy declare the same very soon.

None of this will happen though unless they significantly ramp up their weapons support to the Ukrainian army, and take bolder and faster steps to reduce their dependency on Russia energy.

If this statement isn't followed up with meaningful action, it's fucking worthless.
 
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FunkMiller

Member



Seems like it needed a trip to the scene of the crime for these dozy cunts to wake up and actually see what’s been happening. Let’s see if they have been shocked out of their hand wringing enough to throw full and proper support behind Zelensky, and maybe stop caring so much about their financial relationship with the Kremlin.
 
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AJUMP23

Member
You should take the threat of Nukes at face value. I have lived through the 80s. I was scared, so were my parents. I was saying the Pledge of Allegiance. Then... soviet collapse... my school(s) back, then, taught about it. Relief.
I also lived through the 80s, and was in school in the 80s, I don't think I was ever afraid of a nuclear attack from Russia. If you were afraid it was because your parents were somewhat irrational in their fears. Nuclear war was a possibility, but not likely.
 
While yes, we are doing this, to suggest it is a major motive other than as a meme is a joke. Stop. Or maybe don't and reveal your true self more to us.

Also, Minsk was a joke. Russia has no business being in Ukraine, self-declared republics or not.

Need I remind you it was Russian (at least led) idiots who shot down a passenger plane?

You're being a jerk and an asshole. "My true self". What's that now? A realist who spent time around 2007 at JHU SAIS in Bologna discussing Soviet military technology and doctrine? You don't know who I am or who you're talking to.

The situation has vastly more dimensions that your factoring in and when there's a hot asymmetric conflict including a Superpower, it's generally best -- as years of study have shown -- to turn it off as soon as possible. Prolonging it do nobody any good, lest not the people of the country who inevitably suffer and die.

This is a war of aggression by Russia to conquer Ukraine. We stropped them cold and push them back to the pre-invasion Minsk II boundaries that were, pseudo-stable -- although this is not true if you're living there on the ground with daily artillery fire since 2014. But in all, mission accomplished. If you started with $100, sat at 85% for a decade before abruptly dropping to near 0% and fought back to 85%, maybe it's time to call it before you lose everything again. MiniMax works. But then again, you are likely a WSB savant.

And yes, the Russians are assholes. I have no love for them. Do you really expect me to defend their behavior one iota? The fuck's wrong with you?!
 
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You are shouting into the void. They are stupid, and there is no value in the debate. Just keep supporting the heroes and find happiness in every dead Russian.

Ah yes, that's very astute talk.

I almost married a Ukrainian girl born in Donetsk, they are still like family to me. I hear the stories since 2014 constantly and they were unable to migrate to Odessa early on, so got left behind. Don't lecture me like you have more skin in this or your opinion means more.

Your a keyboard warrior, I hear the stories of my basically family who are homeless and suffered death because this stupid war is still going on. The only people winning are leadership and special interests. End the war and return to stable bounderies before the conventional force balance which is so fucking tremendously in Russia's favor starts tipping the scales and the Ukrainians suffer and lose more native territory. Look to Vietnam or Korea for how these things turn out.
 
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FunkMiller

Member
Your a keyboard warrior, I hear the stories of my basically family who are homeless and suffered death because this stupid war is still going on. The only people winning are leadership and special interests. End the war and return to stable bounderies before the conventional force balance which is so fucking tremendously in Russia's favor starts tipping the scales and the Ukrainians suffer and lose more native territory. Look to Vietnam or Korea for how these things turn out.

And how should the war end?
 
And how should the war end?

Diplomacy.

It's not easy, but you do what our dear leader Biden claims is his expertise. Getting together the international community to offer carrots and negotiate something based on Minsk I/II where all parties concede something. Perhaps stage it with a measured slow down to the war, reducing in fighting and trade/ssanction punishment for breaking it. Just example. Remember, the UN brokered a ceasefire in Korea successfully with the Soviet/Chinese backing the North in a proxy war AFAIK. The UN used to do things, NATO had KFOR in Bosnia, etc.

I've been out of IR for a decade, but people are paid to do this. Biden's sat on the Foreign Relations committee doing presumable something for longer than I've been alive, fucking do something.
 
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FunkMiller

Member
Diplomacy.

It's not easy, but you do what our dear leader Biden claims is his expertise. Getting together the international community to offer carrots and negotiate something based on Minsk I/II where all parties concede something. Perhaps stage it with a measured slow down to the war, reducing in fighting and trade/ssanction punishment for breaking it. Just example. Remember, the UN brokered a ceasefire in Korea successfully with the Soviet/Chinese backing the North in a proxy war AFAIK. The UN used to do things, NATO had KFOR in Bosnia, etc.

I've been out of IR for a decade, but people are paid to do this. Biden's sat on the Foreign Relations committee doing presumable something for longer than I've been alive, fucking do something.

So, your answer to how to end this war is to offer carrots to Putin to stop? To get Ukraine to concede something? To allow Putin gains, the same way the international community did with him in Crimea in 2014.

Now… what do you think happens next, after that?
 
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Diplomacy.

It's not easy, but you do what our dear leader Biden claims is his expertise. Getting together the international community to offer carrots and negotiate something based on Minsk I/II where all parties concede something. Perhaps stage it with a measured slow down to the war, reducing in fighting and trade/ssanction punishment for breaking it. Just example. Remember, the UN brokered a ceasefire in Korea successfully with the Soviet/Chinese backing the North in a proxy war AFAIK. The UN used to do things, NATO had KFOR in Bosnia, etc.

I've been out of IR for a decade, but people are paid to do this. Biden's sat on the Foreign Relations committee doing presumable something for longer than I've been alive, fucking do something.

Good news, Biden's offering diplomatic carrots:

 

Ironbunny

Member
Diplomacy.

It's not easy, but you do what our dear leader Biden claims is his expertise. Getting together the international community to offer carrots and negotiate something based on Minsk I/II where all parties concede something. Perhaps stage it with a measured slow down to the war, reducing in fighting and trade/ssanction punishment for breaking it. Just example. Remember, the UN brokered a ceasefire in Korea successfully with the Soviet/Chinese backing the North in a proxy war AFAIK. The UN used to do things, NATO had KFOR in Bosnia, etc.

I've been out of IR for a decade, but people are paid to do this. Biden's sat on the Foreign Relations committee doing presumable something for longer than I've been alive, fucking do something.

At the moment any diplomacy with ruZZia means time for them to gather more forces/refill and continue attack on a later date. Trusting Putin in any way or form is pointless. Putin will only be stopped with force or from the inside. Its a rosy dream to think anything else.
 
So, your answer to how to end this war is to offer carrots to Putin to stop? To get Ukraine to concede something? To allow Putin gains, the same way the international community did with him in Crimea in 2014.

Now… what do you think happens next, after that?

Over 70% of Putin's military is involved in Ukraine. They have suffered horrific losses and their usable BTG strength is dwindling, it will take years or longer to regain the strength to try what they did with Ukraine again on a fresh nation, wouldn't you agree? The theory this will happen again isn't factoring in the information I see, but I could be wrong. NATO would chew them up in days if tried on an Article5 nation and western intelligence seems to suggest Putin isn't long for the world.

I'm suggesting they have a staged withdrawal to pre-war, Minsk II boundaries, demilitarize the contested areas and stop the killing. If the UN wasn't such a toothless entity they could have a role.

To think Ukraine will fight and push out Russia from not just the eastern contested areas but Crimea and all will just be well is fantasy in my thinking. Russia will scorch earth and everyone will be displaced. Even if they could, at what cost? Real people are dying as we type this and you guys push for war and fighting. The entire world is suffering the consequences of this war, the 3rd world especially in terms of food security and fertilizer and inflation in general.

Again, if you start with $100 and then sit at $85 for a decade before a plummet to near zero and miraculously through bravery and superhuman willpower fight back to 85%... be rational.
 
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FunkMiller

Member
Over 70% of Putin's military is involved in Ukraine. They have suffered horrific losses and their usable BTG strength is dwindling, it will take years or longer to regain the strength to try what they did with Ukraine again on a fresh nation, wouldn't you agree? The theory this will happen again isn't factoring in the information I see, but I could be wrong. NATO would chew them up in days if tried on an Article5 nation and western intelligence seems to suggest Putin isn't long for the world.

I'm suggesting they have a staged withdrawal to pre-war, Minsk II boundaries, demilitarize the contested areas and stop the killing. If the UN wasn't such a toothless entity they could have a role.

To think Ukraine will fight and push out Russia from not just the eastern contested areas but Crimea and all will just be well is fantasy in my thinking. Russia will scorch earth and everyone will be displaced. Even if they could, at what cost? Real people are dying as we type this and you guys push for war and fighting. The entire world is suffering the consequences of this war, the 3rd world especially in terms of food security and fertilizer and inflation in general.

Again, if you start with $100 and then sit at $85 for a decade before a plummet to near zero and miraculously through bravery and superhuman willpower fight back to 85%... be rational.

Sorry, but this a very naive point of view. You seem to think Vladimir Putin will not try to prosecute further invasions in the future, if this one achieves some of the goals he set.

Have you forgotten the billions he continues to draw in from energy exports? Even if his war machine is depleted, he will be able to restore it.

And if he is allowed to retain gains from this conflict, how is that justice for the thousands his troops have butchered, raped and tortured?

You say this: “Real people are dying as we type this and you guys push for war and fighting.”

…do you understand who has been dying? Do you understand what will continue to happen to them now, if Russia aren’t forced out of Ukraine completely? There is no going back to the previous status quo after this.

Do you also understand the precedent set, if Russia is not soundly and heavily punished for what it has done in Ukraine?

Would you also sue for peace with Hitler? (And by god, this is one subject where Godwin’s Law is appropriate) Would you suggest we allow his Germany to retain some of the land it took? Would you be okay with the Nazis being allowed to keep parts of Poland? Would the ongoing holocaust be acceptable, if it meant the rest of the world wasn’t hurt economically?

You‘re thinking is fundamentally flawed by treating Putin’s Russia as a standard combatant in a conflict. It’s not. It’s the Nazis. It’s an invasion army force bent on genocide.
 
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tommolb

Member
Russia is now trying to revoke the Baltic states' sovereignty starting with Lithuania in an attempt to get them out of NATO


Its so obvious that they have major ambitions to fuck with other countries and Ukraine is just the beginning. I thought Zelensky and Ukrainian officials were exaggerating a bit when they would say that Ukraine is defending all of Europe, but its clear that they're 100% right. Handing Russia any kind of victory would only embolden them further. They have to be defeated in Ukraine or the Baltic countries will be next in line for 'de-nazification'.
Russia just deciding about 25 years later that they "don't recognise your independence anymore" doesn't mean diddly squat.

If it worked like that, they'd just dispute the sale of Alaska and kick the US out of NATO!
 

John Marston

GAF's very own treasure goblin
I guess misinformation is going on from both sides but the latest info I heard about babies being raped and killed by Russian soldiers just makes me sick and angry.

How could this happen in 2022 while my biggest problem is which Netflix show to watch next.
 

JayK47

Member
I don't think Putin will be around much longer. He looks like shit. No idea what happens with Russia when he is gone. Better or worse? I would love to see a cease fire or diplomatic solution. Unless you have stock in Lockheed Martin, more war is more death and I don't see why so many now support a continued war.
 

Sakura

Member
Over 70% of Putin's military is involved in Ukraine. They have suffered horrific losses and their usable BTG strength is dwindling, it will take years or longer to regain the strength to try what they did with Ukraine again on a fresh nation, wouldn't you agree? The theory this will happen again isn't factoring in the information I see, but I could be wrong. NATO would chew them up in days if tried on an Article5 nation and western intelligence seems to suggest Putin isn't long for the world.

I'm suggesting they have a staged withdrawal to pre-war, Minsk II boundaries, demilitarize the contested areas and stop the killing. If the UN wasn't such a toothless entity they could have a role.

To think Ukraine will fight and push out Russia from not just the eastern contested areas but Crimea and all will just be well is fantasy in my thinking. Russia will scorch earth and everyone will be displaced. Even if they could, at what cost? Real people are dying as we type this and you guys push for war and fighting. The entire world is suffering the consequences of this war, the 3rd world especially in terms of food security and fertilizer and inflation in general.

Again, if you start with $100 and then sit at $85 for a decade before a plummet to near zero and miraculously through bravery and superhuman willpower fight back to 85%... be rational.
It won't take that long to rebuild the military.
Obviously it won't be a single year, but given a few years they can replace the lost men, and a lot of equipment. Several years isn't a long time in the grand scheme of things.
If anything, given time, Russia's military could be stronger than it is now. Having experienced this major modern conflict, they will know what works and what doesn't.

Furthermore, any sort of negotiation with the west to end the war now would have to include dropping all sanctions, and giving Russia what it wants, otherwise why would Russia agree? And a drop of sanctions would only make it easier for Russia to rebuild its military.
 

MrA

Member
I don't think Putin will be around much longer. He looks like shit. No idea what happens with Russia when he is gone. Better or worse? I would love to see a cease fire or diplomatic solution. Unless you have stock in Lockheed Martin, more war is more death and I don't see why so many now support a continued war.
The end of the war isn't your , my or anyone else's call , its the Ukrainians if they want to fight for their home ,
Hate to break it to you but "peace" doesn't end brutality, millions died as boat people after the fall of Saigon, the Shahs defeat ushered in a brutal oppressive regime ,the Karen continue to suffer at the hands of the Burmese government, the soviets were murderous brutes to the countries they conquered after ww2
You're naive if you think ending the war ends the deaths at an aggressors hands, as long as the Ukrainians have the will to fight I support giving them the supplies they need. I won't support providing them with men on the ground, they have to win this themselves but your "end" is akin to leading lambs to wolves
I used it before but this is you
5.-GettyImages-613506458-fe448db.jpg
 
Sorry, but this a very naive point of view. You seem to think Vladimir Putin will not try to prosecute further invasions in the future, if this one achieves some of the goals he set.

Have you forgotten the billions he continues to draw in from energy exports? Even if his war machine is depleted, he will be able to restore it.

And if he is allowed to retain gains from this conflict, how is that justice for the thousands his troops have butchered, raped and tortured?

You say this: “Real people are dying as we type this and you guys push for war and fighting.”

…do you understand who has been dying? Do you understand what will continue to happen to them now, if Russia aren’t forced out of Ukraine completely? There is no going back to the previous status quo after this.

Do you also understand the precedent set, if Russia is not soundly and heavily punished for what it has done in Ukraine?

Would you also sue for peace with Hitler? (And by god, this is one subject where Godwin’s Law is appropriate) Would you suggest we allow his Germany to retain some of the land it took? Would you be okay with the Nazis being allowed to keep parts of Poland? Would the ongoing holocaust be acceptable, if it meant the rest of the world wasn’t hurt economically?

You‘re thinking is fundamentally flawed by treating Putin’s Russia as a standard combatant in a conflict. It’s not. It’s the Nazis. It’s an invasion army force bent on genocide.

You call me naive, alright, but then pivot and expect us to believe that you can use "billions" to restore his military. I don't think you understand this aspect, this isn't Command and Conquer: Red Alert where you just buy a few more units and march off in a new direction. A generation of trained leaders and officers are gone, obliterated. This harkens back to a midlevel parallel of the Purges of the 1930s in Stalinist Russia, look what happened when they remobilized (just like you think is so easy) and got destroyed en masse by the Fins and then Germans in '41. And your idea that they can just whip up new equipment is ridiculous on face value, their armament industry is decimated by the sanctions. Armor production has halted. They are crowdsourcing supplies for their airforce. Oh, they can beat Ukraine to death on the land, and believe me, they will, but against any western NATO article5 nation, I mean, what planet do you inhabit?

Justice? This isn't some world where there is a God that distributes equal justice under the law and keeps tab of cosmic karma. Putin's an animal, but he'll ravage Ukraine the longer this goes on. Would a dead Ukrainian solder rather have died defending Kiev and stopping the war or died so that their family in Kharkiv can get thrown out of their homes, starved on the road for a month, raped and then murdered and buried in a mass grave? I want an answer.

The Hitler comparisons are overly simplistic, but unlike you I realize I don't know you so refuse to call you "naive" as you did me. The stability–instability paradox and minimal deterrence policy looms large here, this dynamic didn't exist during the 1930s. Russia has few people it can go after now that NATO expansion into Scandinavia is likely. The Baltic is Article5 and there is tremendous research demonstrating the stability of nuclear power on nuclear power conflict and lack thereof, even conventionally.

But let's think that what you said was smart and valid and game it out historically, counter-factually. Historically, Germany took the Sudetenland as they claimed it was filled with ethnic Germans that were being persecuted and the Munich Agreements between the European powers sought to find peace in 1938. Nice parallel. Let's now diverge and say that when Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia in 1939, the Czechs got pushed back to a fraction of their size in Slovokia and their major cities were being met by German armored spearheads. But, the Czech's we backed up by the Western nations and Russians and given huge sums of arms and money and aim and amazingly, miraculously, they fought even harder that historically (and I'm Czech, so no offense to the Czech's) they pushed them back to the Munich Agreement lines of '38. The war stalemated and the death toll rose precipitously. Western Intelligence suggested the Germans would regain the momentum. Meanwhile, Germany was an industrial power and it's removal caused huge disruptions to the world economy, inflation and food supply (exaggeration, but need the parallel). Hitler's army was destroyed as an effective force, the officer corps that we now infamously know -- Guderian, Manstein, von Kleist, Rommel, etc... some dead, other's in disarray. The Luftwaffe begging for parts and unable to fly. The armor and trucks and infrastructure of the army totally fucked and world wide sanctions preventing rebuilding at scale.

So, now, you're telling me that even in your magical situation where we know Hitler was still a fucking madman asshole the likes of which the world rarely encounters, you couldn't have seen the European powers reach out and call for a ceasefire and end to the death at the Munich boundaries and saying let's demilitarilze the Sudetenland as an independent buffer? You'd basically be saying fight on, retake it all at any cost.

Only in our timeline, the separatist lands were basically autonomous for almost a decade, not 1 year.

Edit and Restated: What are your end goals? What do you hope to see achieved? Why do you want OTHER PEOPLE to fight and die?
 
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