I thought the original plan was to get to a conclusive ending with 3 but there'd be content left out in doing so and there could be a 4. I liked that plan.
No, that was never the plan.
But - without going into spoiler material, some plot threads going back as far as the original game will be resolved, but as II showed us... there's a bigger story going on. Maybe that's what you're thinking about?
I don't know how they can pretend it's coming out end of 2018.
No basic gameplay has been revealed yet. Once they have a bit of gameplay to show (Like E3 2018 at the earliest given what's been shown so far), they will still have one year of polish to do, that's just how it goes. Except if the scope of the game is dramatically reduced compared to Shenmue 2. 2018 is impossible if they aim for an ambitious Shenmue game.
This is a totally backwards way to judge progress, and frankly pretty inaccurate too.
Why it's backwards - if heavily stage managed press cycles, E3 trailers, and vertical slices were
any indication of how far a game was developed, it wouldn't have taken three and a half years for FF15 to go from reveal to release (and they're STILL bolting bits on to that game via patches).
Look at something like Shadow of War, ARMS, Fallout 4, etc instead. Short, tight, press cycles. That seems to be the direction YSnet want to go in for when they finally pop the lid off the work they've been doing since late 2015.
Why it's inaccurate - although fleeting, we've seen snips of gameplay already in footage from this February. We saw it first in a development environment with a game designer working on a "quest", and then during a playcheck/review with Yu Suzuki. Big, flashy reveal it aint', but it's there.
As someone else who has been following the development closely, do you think we'll see a game closer to Yu's vision with this delay? I would hope that they would develop the game to the scope they had originally hoped if they have the funds and time to do so.
At the end of the day, it's Yu's vision regardless. There's no funding level that is the "true" vision, which is why Yu made several plans for Shenmue III at multiple funding levels; instead of just a single plan they'd take bits away from if they fell short.
But I do think they'll be able to take the money further than they originally intended, or certain stretch goals not already hit might align with overall design ambitions and get thrown in anyway. We know they've already done this with combat stuff like the Higher Ground Battle System.