40 characters or bust. We're at 25; I say Captain Falcon, Luigi, Ganondorf, Marth, and Mr. Game & Watch are 100% locks, getting us to 30. There were 9 newcomers from Melee who weren't revealed on the Melee site until after the game was released. If that pattern holds up, we'd be at 39.
And if any one character out of Jigglypuff, Falco, Young Link, Ness, and Mewtwo gets in, that's 40 already. (Or if any two of them got in, we would only need 8 newcomers who we don't know about yet. If any three of them got in, we would need 7. And so on.) No problem!
I would never say or even imply "solely."
Other than that, though, I agree.