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[donny2112]

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 (or at least that we'll get numbers for) with some leaning to what EEDAR predicts will make the Top 10 for the month.

Games/Format:

[360 Prototype]
[360 Red Faction]
[PS3 Prototype]
[WII The Conduit]
[WII Tiger Woods 10]

[Total SW $ in millions]

Good                      Bad
[360 Prototype] 200K      [360 Prototype] 200 thousand
[360 Prototype] 200,000   [360 Prototype] 200.000
[360 Prototype] 200000    [360 Prototype] - 200,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Sunday, July 12th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 31-July 4 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: July 16th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)


Days available in tracking period (new releases):

360/PS3 Prototype - 26 days
360 Red Faction - 33 days
WII The Conduit - 12 days
WII Tiger Woods 10 (includes w/ and w/o Motion+) - 27 days

 

[VerTiGo]

Are we ruling out Grand Slam Tennis being in the Top 10? I think that has a better chance than The Conduit, afterall, EA's Motion Plus launch is basically a Wii relaunch.

 

[RurouniZel]

nm I can't read.

 

[donny2112]

Are we ruling out Grand Slam Tennis being in the Top 10?

Motion+ was packaged with Tiger Woods and not Grand Slam Tennis, so anyone just curious about Motion+ is more likely to get Tiger Woods with the attachment for $10 than a full-priced tennis game and buy the attachment for $20. Without the Motion+ bundle, I doubt either would've been in the Top 10 for the month.

 

[Struct09]

[360 Prototype] 350K
[360 Red Faction] 200K
[PS3 Prototype] 150K
[WII The Conduit] 40K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 150K

Are we ruling out Grand Slam Tennis being in the Top 10? I think that has a better chance than The Conduit, afterall, EA's Motion Plus launch is basically a Wii relaunch.

I'll be shocked if The Conduit makes the top 10. I would bet on EA Sports Active being there again though.

 

[Wollan]

Why only 360 Red Faction?
I bet [PS3 Red Faction] > [PS3 Prototype]

 

[Dalthien]

Without the Motion+ bundle, I doubt either would've been in the Top 10 for the month.

I think Tiger Woods Wii may have made it even without the M+ bundle. It would have been close.

Last year, Tiger Woods Wii sold about 100k in its 2nd month. We don't have data (or I just didn't look hard enough) for its first month - all we know is that it was somewhere below 111k. But it was only out a handful of days in its first month last year. With it having a full month on shelves this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it would have made the Top 10 even without the M+ bundle.

 

[NR1]

No Ghostbusters?

Surely at least one version of the title will find its way in the top 10. It came out on June 16, which is almost 3 weeks of NPD coverage.

 

[apujanata]

[this space reserved for my predictions, putting thought into it]



I'll be shocked if The Conduit makes the top 10. I would bet on EA Sports Active being there again though.

Conduit could be out of top 10, could be in Top 10. Same with Ghostbusters and/or Grand Slam Tennis, although the possibility of GST getting into Top 10 is smaller than Conduit or Ghostbusters (IMO).

 

[Jesse2040]

[this space reserved for my predictions, putting thought into it]



I'll be shocked if The Conduit makes the top 10. I would bet on EA Sports Active being there again though.

I tend to agree. I'd be surprised if Conduit makes the top 10. At an estimated 100k, that wouldn't qualify for the top ten. But if it does, feel free to call me out as being wrong

EA Sports Active will make the top ten.

Here is my top ten

1. Prototype - 360
2. Wii Fit - Wii
3. EA Sports Active -Wii
4. Prototype - PS3
5. UFC - 360
6. Red Faction - 360
7. GhostBusters - 360
8. Tiger Woods - Wii
9. Pokemon - NDS
10. Fight Night Rd 4 - 360

 

[NR1]

Here is my top ten

1. Prototype - 360
2. Wii Fit - Wii
3. EA Sports Active -Wii
4. Prototype - PS3
5. UFC - 360
6. Red Faction - 360
7. GhostBusters - 360
8. Tiger Woods - Wii
9. Pokemon - NDS
10. Fight Night Rd 4 - 360

Not to sure...

Based on last week's data, the titles in bold are the most likely to drop off the top 10 chart:

UFC 2009 UNDISPUTED (Xbox 360)
Wii FIT W/ BALANCE BOARD (Wii)
EA SPORTS ACTIVE BUNDLE (Wii)
UFC 2009 UNDISPUTED (PS3)
INFAMOUS (PS3)
POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION (NDS)
MARIO KART W/ WHEEL (Wii)
PUNCH OUT!! (Wii)
X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE UNCAGED ED (Xbox 360)
Wii PLAY W/ REMOTE (Wii)

Depending on the scale of the sales of the other titles, Wii Play and Mario Kart Wii could also find their way off the chart.

I would anticipate Ghostbusters (360) to chart with perhaps either the Wii or PS3 versions making an appearance too.

I don't think The Conduit (Wii) will chart. It may be a good game, but the data doesn't cover enough time for this title and the Wii demographic doesn't lend itself well to this type of title. I'm a little skeptical of Fight Night Round 4 too, since it only has 12 days worth of sales and UFC 2009 could undermine it. Granted both games offer different fighting styles; however, I would consider them similar enough to effect one another's sales.

Tiger Woods (Wii) will most likely chart. I have been getting the distinct impression that the Wii Motion Plus has been performing masterfully thus far in preparation of Wii Sports Resort release. Prototype (360) will also chart, with a strong possibility of the PS3 version also finding its way in the top 10.

I'm also very interested in seeing how Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen sold. It was released on June 23; however, the first game was able to rank #12 on the PS2 and #17 on the 360 in June 2007 after only 12 days of sales. It went on to rank #8 (PS2) and #16 (NDS) in July 2007. Considering the massive success of the film at the box office, I would expect some spillover into the video game market. If X-Men can chart last month, then so can Transformers (IMO).

I imagine something along the lines of this:

1. Prototype - 360
2. Wii Fit - Wii
3. GhostBusters - 360
4. Prototype - PS3
5. Red Faction - 360
6. UFC - 360
7. EA Sports Active - Wii
8. Pokemon - NDS
9. Tiger Woods - Wii
10. Transformers - 360

 

[Jesse2040]

Not to sure...


I'm also very interested in seeing how Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen sold. It was released on June 23; however, the first game was able to rank #12 on the PS2 and #17 on the 360 in June 2007 after only 12 days of sales. It went on to rank #8 (PS2) and #16 (NDS) in July 2007. Considering the massive success of the film at the box office, I would expect some spillover into the video game market. If X-Men can chart last month, then so can Transformers (IMO).

I imagine something along the lines of this:

1. Prototype - 360
2. Wii Fit - Wii
3. GhostBusters - 360
4. Prototype - PS3
5. Red Faction - 360
6. UFC - 360
7. EA Sports Active - Wii
8. Pokemon - NDS
9. Tiger Woods - Wii
10. Transformers - 360

Transformers comes in the top 10 and i'll eat my hat.

 

[JoJo13]

There's no way The Conduit will make it in the top 10. I'd be very surprised.

I expect Mad World numbers for the Conduit. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if InFamous in its second month outsells The Conduit.

 

[JoJo13]

Not to sure...

Based on last week's data, the titles in bold are the most likely to drop off the top 10 chart:

snip

what data do we have for last week?

 

[andy_lhc]

Not even 1 prediction?:lol

 

[Halvie]

Does anyone know if places that don't report numbers like Walmart are estimated into the monthly report, or are they left out all together?

 

[a Master Ninja]

There's no way The Conduit will make it in the top 10. I'd be very surprised.

I expect Mad World numbers for the Conduit. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if InFamous in its second month outsells The Conduit.

I think The Conduit's sales are going to surprise a lot of people.

 

[donny2112]

Not even 1 prediction?:lol

I find it pretty funny, too. :lol

Whether The Conduit makes the Top 10 or not, I have high confidence that we'll still find out its sales number for the month. We know HotD:Overkill and MadWorld's first month numbers, after all, and neither of those made the overall monthly Top 10. If The Conduit doesn't make the Top 10 (and I agree with Jesse2040 that if it only sells 100K, it won't be in the Top 10), it'll likely be the first number requested by the press from NPD.

Does anyone know if places that don't report numbers like Walmart are estimated into the monthly report, or are they left out all together?

They're estimated in. NPD attempts to account for 100% of the U.S. retail market in its reports.

 

[idlewild_]

hrm, it possible to have last month's results in both threads? :d

[360 Prototype] 450k
[360 Red Faction] 270k
[PS3 Prototype] 300k
[WII The Conduit] 140k
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 210k

 

[dammitmattt]

Fight Night 360 and Ghostbusters 360 are absolute slam dunks for the top ten.

 

[Jesse2040]

I find it pretty funny, too. :lol

Whether The Conduit makes the Top 10 or not, I have high confidence that we'll still find out its sales number for the month. We know HotD:Overkill and MadWorld's first month numbers, after all, and neither of those made the overall monthly Top 10. If The Conduit doesn't make the Top 10 (and I agree with Jesse2040 that if it only sells 100K, it won't be in the Top 10), it'll likely be the first number requested by the press from NPD.



They're estimated in. NPD attempts to account for 100% of the U.S. retail market in its reports.

Yea, I agree with Donny.
We will find out one or or another.

Didnt mean to doubt you Donny!

 

[lowlylowlycook]

I find it pretty funny, too. :lol

It tells you something about sale-agers that it is so much easier to get people to make hardware predictions where there are clear baselines to go from than to make software predictions that would take a real feel for the market to get even close.

I say that as someone that has never ventured a software prediction.

 

[donny2112]

[360 Prototype] 500K
[360 Red Faction] 250K
[PS3 Prototype] 300K
[WII The Conduit] 325K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 175K

[Total SW $ in millions] 590

 

[soul creator]

[360 Prototype] 450K
[360 Red Faction] 400K
[PS3 Prototype] 150K
[WII The Conduit] 100K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 350K

[Total SW $ in millions] 1K

[360 Ghostbusters] 650K
[Wii Ghostbusters] 200K
[PS3 Ghostbusters] 200K
[360 Fight Night Round 4] 400K
[PS3 Fight Night Round 4] 200K

pulled out of my ass, btw

 

[Aaron Strife]

[360 Prototype] 450k
[360 Red Faction] 170k
[PS3 Prototype] 320k
[WII The Conduit] 120k
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 250k

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

Expecting Tiger Woods to do super well because of MotionPlus boosting it a little.

 

[andy_lhc]

[360 Prototype] 520K
[360 Red Faction] 210K
[PS3 Prototype] 250K
[WII The Conduit] 198K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 225K

[Total SW $ in millions] 630

 

[donny2112]

Not exactly the right thread for it, but I just saw a celebrity (familiar faces, but don't recall their names) commercial for Mario Kart DS on TV. :lol

 

[NR1]

This is my first attempt at this, so I will just see how well this plays out... :lol

[360 Prototype] 520K
[360 Red Faction] 295K
[PS3 Prototype] 250K
[WII The Conduit] 89K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 150K

[Total SW $ in millions] 700


[360 Ghostbusters] 345K
[PS3 Ghostbusters] 155K
[WII Ghostbusters] 150K
[360 UFC] 245K
[WII EA Sports Active] 200K
[360 Transformers] 135K
[360 Fight Night Round 4] 145k

 

[markatisu]

I think most everyone is lowballing The Conduit something awful, I would be utterly shocked if it sold similar to MadWorld given the amount of people online

[360 Prototype] 500K
[360 Red Faction] 250K
[PS3 Prototype] 300K
[WII The Conduit] 145K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 190K

Others for shits and giggles since last June in NPD Lego Indy dominated the Top 10

[360 Ghostbusters] 245K
[PS3 Ghostbusters] 175K
[WII Ghostbusters] 170K

[Total SW $ in millions] 750

 

[JoJo13]

damn, those are some high estimates for prototype

 

[donny2112]

I think most everyone is lowballing The Conduit something awful,

I just checked the recent Nintendo Channel update on the game. Based on the # of hours played (74,522) and the average time per person (10.7), the bare minimum for the game is 7K. Anyone predicting lower than that is just trolling.

 

[Accident]

[360 Prototype] 390K
[360 Red Faction] 200K
[PS3 Prototype] 190K
[WII The Conduit] 115K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 130K

[Total SW $ in millions] 600

 

[RBH]

[360 Prototype] 500k
[360 Red Faction] 150k
[PS3 Prototype] 300k
[WII The Conduit] 200k
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 175k

[Total SW $ in millions] 600

 

[Danthrax]

never predicted software but The Conduit has moved me to make an attempt:

[360 Prototype] 600K
[360 Red Faction] 180K
[PS3 Prototype] 300K
[WII The Conduit] 150K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 250K

[Total SW $ in millions] 680

and I feel I'm being very conservative with that Conduit number.

 

[VegaShinra]

[WII The Conduit] 125K
[360 Prototype] 400k
[360 Red Faction] 75k
[PS3 Prototype] 350k
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 180k

 

[billy.sea]

[360 Prototype] 410K
[360 Red Faction] 300K
[PS3 Prototype] 200K
[WII The Conduit] 160K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 350K

[Total SW $ in millions] 590

 

[timetokill]

I don't really participate in these threads but I'll be shocked if The Conduit does over 100k. Pleasantly surprised, maybe, but still.

 

[laserbeam]

[360 Prototype] 400k
[360 Red Faction] 230k
[PS3 Prototype] 175k
[WII The Conduit] 135k
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 225k

[Total SW $ in millions] 625

 

[WaltJay]

[360 Prototype] 310K
[360 Red Faction] 290K
[PS3 Prototype] 150K
[WII The Conduit] 60K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 500K

[Total SW $ in millions] 515

 

[markatisu]

[WII The Conduit] 60K

You think it sold less than MadWorld did?

 

[conman]

[360 Prototype] 350K
[360 Red Faction] 220K
[PS3 Prototype] 200K
[WII The Conduit] 115K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 300K

[Total SW $ in millions] 600

and because it's notably absent:

[360 Fight Night Round 4] 250K
[PS3 Fight Night Round 4] 175K

 

[Hammer24]

[360 Prototype] 475K
[360 Red Faction] 315K
[PS3 Prototype] 275K
[WII The Conduit] 125K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 275K

[Total SW $ in millions] 575

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I tend to agree. I'd be surprised if Conduit makes the top 10. At an estimated 100k, that wouldn't qualify for the top ten. But if it does, feel free to call me out as being wrong

EA Sports Active will make the top ten.

Here is my top ten

1. Prototype - 360
2. Wii Fit - Wii
3. EA Sports Active -Wii
4. Prototype - PS3
5. UFC - 360
6. Red Faction - 360
7. GhostBusters - 360
8. Tiger Woods - Wii
9. Pokemon - NDS
10. Fight Night Rd 4 - 360

So you think that Wii Play will drop out of the top ten for the first time ever this month then?

 

[shykyoichi]

[360 Prototype] 325K
[360 Red Faction] 190K
[PS3 Prototype] 150K
[WII The Conduit] 50K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 175K

 

[EatChildren]

I'll certainly be very surprised if The Conduit breaks 100,000.

 

[rikitikitik]

[360 Prototype] 260k
[360 Red Faction] 215k
[PS3 Prototype] 87k
[WII The Conduit] 65k
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 215k

[Total SW $ in millions] 520

 

[botticus]

[360 Prototype]350k
[360 Red Faction] 200k
[PS3 Prototype] 200k
[WII The Conduit] 160k
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 250k

[Total SW $ in millions] 600

 

[donny2112]

So you think that Wii Play will drop out of the top ten for the first time ever this month then?

I think it will, too. I think Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, and EA Sports Active will still be in the Top 10 for Wii, though (just looking at Wii games that were there last month).

 

[Jesse2040]

[360 Prototype] 450k
[360 Red Faction] 245k
[PS3 Prototype] 290k
[WII The Conduit] 160k
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 180k

[Total SW $ in millions] 697

 

[perfectchaos007]

[360 Prototype] 400K
[360 Red Faction] 220K
[PS3 Prototype] 200K
[WII The Conduit] 400K
[WII Tiger Woods 10] 220K

[Total SW $ in millions] 550


I'm way overshooting the Conduit but it would be cool to see it sell well