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[Inuhanyou]

How could Zhuge never have played the original mario NES and SNES titles....? That's fucking blasphemy right there, and my first console was a genesis....even being a genesis kid, that feels so alien, hearing someone say they never played the Mario titles as a kid

It truly is a different age

 

[ZhugeEX]

Goodness! I don't care much for Mario or Nintendo in general, but you need to play Super Mario Bros. 3 like yesterday.

Haha, a lot of people are shocked when I tell them the first Nintendo game I ever played was in 2014. Didn't even have a DS or play on a DS during the craze and same applies to Wii. I think I only ever played one Wii game for 5 minutes, that's the most exposure I've had to directly playing a Nintendo game.

Ofc I keep track of the gaming industry as whole so I knew when Nintendo titles were coming out etc... just never played them myself.

I haven't looked into the whole Virtual Console thing so will be checking it out to see what older titles are available.

Yep, saw your estimation a few times. 60-70% would mean the PS4 will be somewhere around 100 million, right? Sounds reasonable. I'm predicting ~120 million at the end of its life myself (which is around 2023). Anyway, I've never owned Nintendo consoles but I do have two GameBoy SP's and a Nintendo DS Lite.

Correct. I'm expecting this generation to be similar (not the same) as the PS1/N64/Saturn generation.

I've included my estimates below for those who haven't seen it yet. Btw I'd recommend the Wii U if you think the games are of interest to you.

Gen 5: ~145m (not included on graph)
Gen 6: ~200m
Gen 7: ~280m
Gen 8: ~42m (Estimate 150m+)

 

[AngryNapkin]

What's funny is that if you remove the Wii outlier Nintendo has 170 million or so over the course of 5 consoles, Sony has 370 million over 4.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

What's funny is that if you remove the Wii outlier Nintendo has 170 million or so over the course of 5 consoles, Sony has 370 million over 4.

You can't remove it. That's stupid for any reasonable discussion.

 

[onQ123]

What's funny is that if you remove the Wii outlier Nintendo has 170 million or so over the course of 5 consoles, Sony has 370 million over 4.

Why would you remove the Wii?

 

[Javin98]

Correct. I'm expecting this generation to be similar (not the same) as the PS1/N64/Saturn generation.

I've included my estimates below for those who haven't seen it yet. Btw I'd recommend the Wii U if you think the games are of interest to you.



Gen 5: ~145m (not included on graph)
Gen 6: ~200m
Gen 7: ~280m
Gen 8: ~42m (Estimate 150m+)

I'm a bit confused here. You predict it to be over 150 million, yet your graph shows it under. Please explain a little. BTW, what is your rough estimation of PS4 numbers before it is discontinued?

 

[ZhugeEX]

What's funny is that if you remove the Wii outlier Nintendo has 170 million or so over the course of 5 consoles, Sony has 370 million over 4.

What's funny is that when you remove the PS1, PS2, PS3 and PS4 from Sony's numbers it looks like Nintendo dominated!

I'm a bit confused here. You predict it to be over 150 million, yet your graph shows it under. Please explain a little. BTW, what is your rough estimation of PS4 numbers before it is discontinued?

The graph shows the first 7 years only.
2012-2018

Sorry if that wasn't clear. I believe that by the end of 2019 the total amount of consoles shipped by Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo will have exceeded or be around 150 million units with Sony's PS4 accounting for between 60%-70% market share.

 

[Omnistalgic]

There will probably never be another Sony handheld.

I think they'll make a tablet that can play Vita/PSP/PS1/PS2 game locally though. There's hope.

 

[Shengar]

(Besides I don't think Primasaurus was talking about me in that post)

Not talking about ZhugeEX, he has been great

I've got the feeing that I misunderstood the post, sorry for that. But I keep as is in case someone paranoid enough and think like that.

How could Zhuge never have played the original mario NES and SNES titles....? That's fucking blasphemy right there, and my first console was a genesis....even being a genesis kid, that feels so alien, hearing someone say they never played the Mario titles as a kid

It truly is a different age

Some area like Southeast Asia never received official Nintendo presence. My first exposure to Mario was from my Gameboy Color and that was Doctor Mario and Mario Tennis. It was Sony who become the first console manufacturer who have (semi) official presence in third world market since they can take advantage of their electronic retail.

 

[Javin98]

The graph shows the first 7 years only.
2012-2018

Sorry if that wasn't clear. I believe that by the end of 2019 the total amount of consoles shipped by Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo will have exceeded or be around 150 million units with Sony's PS4 accounting for between 60%-70% market share.

LOL, sorry, my bad. I forgot to include 2012 in the 7 years period. This makes more sense now. You may have missed this but I'll just ask again. What do you think the sales figures of the PS4 will be before it is discontinued?

 

[ZhugeEX]

LOL, sorry, my bad. I forgot to include 2012 in the 7 years period. This makes more sense now. You may have missed this but I'll just ask again. What do you think the sales figures of the PS4 will be before it is discontinued?

No Idea.

At this point it's hard to say when a new console generation will be launched and what effect it'll have on the PS4. You can work out what I believe PS4 will sell by the end of 2019 but after that it's hard to say whether it'll have a very sharp decline (or even before then) or whether it'll see PS1/PS2 type legs.

The PS3 for example sold approximately ~81 million units* before the PS4 came out and since then (14 months) has sold in an additional ~7 million.* If I had to make a guess I'd say that PS3 won't even sell another 7 million before it's discontinued. Where as the PS2 sold another 50 million or so before it was discontinued after PS3 came out. Now of course we're talking about different consoles, different market conditions, different generational lengths etc... But the point I'm trying to make is that it's hard to say when the new generation will start and what impact that'll have on PS4.

*Numbers are estimated and rounded

 

[Javin98]

No Idea.

At this point it's hard to say when a new console generation will be launched and what effect it'll have on the PS4. You can work out what I believe PS4 will sell by the end of 2019 but after that it's hard to say whether it'll have a very sharp decline (or even before then) or whether it'll see PS1/PS2 type legs.

The PS3 for example sold approximately ~81 million units before the PS4 came out and since then (14 months) has sold in an additional ~7 million.*

*Numbers are estimated and rounded

Yeah, good point. But at the very least, it's always fun to estimate and see how your estimations hold up years later. I think the PS4 will undoubtedly hit 100 million units sold through somewhere down the line though.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Some area like Southeast Asia never received official Nintendo presence. My first exposure to Mario was from my Gameboy Color and that was Doctor Mario and Mario Tennis. It was Sony who become the first console manufacturer who have (semi) official presence in third world market since they can take advantage of their electronic retail.

Yeah, i noticed that compared to Sony who really benefit from their WW marketplace, Nintendo really is limited to only Japan, portions of the EU and America(and only then its not very a big slice of marketshare)

 

[Combichristoffersen]

Haha, a lot of people are shocked when I tell them the first Nintendo game I ever played was in 2014. Didn't even have a DS or play on a DS during the craze and same applies to Wii. I think I only ever played one Wii game for 5 minutes, that's the most exposure I've had to directly playing a Nintendo game.

Ofc I keep track of the gaming industry as whole so I knew when Nintendo titles were coming out etc... just never played them myself.

I haven't looked into the whole Virtual Console thing so will be checking it out to see what older titles are available.

Never owned a Nintendo console myself since I never had any desire to do so, and grew up with a Master System myself (and friends and relatives with NES, SNES and Mega Drive) before I switched to Sony with the PS1 and I've stayed with them since. But there are a few all-time classics from Nintendo I definitely think everyone should play at least once.

Spoiler

I could probably count the first-party Nintendo games I care about on one hand though

 

[AngryNapkin]

Why would you remove the Wii?

You can't remove it. That's stupid for any reasonable discussion.

It shows just how bad their hardware strategy has been across all platforms. The PS2 almost wipes out all of Nintendos lifetime platforms (excluding the Wii) sales being just shy 25 million.

One console achieved that type of success in 6-7 years what it took Nintendo around 2 decades and 5 consoles to do.

It's not a slam against the Wii by any stretch, it's more an argument for Nintendos failed approach to the market.

 

[Windforce]

Great job, Zhuge. Thanks for the info.

What I find really impressive are the PS3 numbers. To think it was such a mess at the start, and now closing on 90 million, is really a turnaround of proportions never seen before in gaming.

I wonder if PS3 can effectively hit 90 million though. Would put it on PS1's 102 million league which is just excellent.

 

[The Artisan]

hey ZhugeEx, if it hasn't been said already, you made a crave article =]

http://www.craveonline.com/gaming/articles/843043-370-million-playstation-consoles-sold-since-1994

so yeah, this is truly remarkable. if the Ps3 had a better launch, the number might've been even higher.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Great job, Zhuge. Thanks for the info.

What I find really impressive are the PS3 numbers. To think it was such a mess at the start, and now closing on 90 million, is really a turnaround of proportions never seen before in gaming.

I wonder if PS3 can effectively hit 90 million though. Would put it on PS1's 102 million league which is just excellent.

It never was a bad product, but pricing at launch and its cost (scarcity of essential components driving their price through the roof hurt) did not help. I got the 60 GB model at launch, partial HW BC and all other bells and whistles, but I have to say that it did not disappoint me, it felt like a premium device. As a console it had tons of features (SACD and Blu-Ray playback, SD+MS+CF memory card reader, easily replaceable HDD [did not have to buy a standard one in a proprietary enclosure and pay a premium], etc...) and as a multimedia OS the XMB received tons of features I like (mini 15 seconds custom video clip for everyone of my videos for example).

Still, mad props to SCE who was able, not without some tough choices, to make a colossal comeback. It does help them that their fan base knows Sony supports its consoles for a long time, even after releasing their successor.

 

[Panajev2001a]

No Idea.

At this point it's hard to say when a new console generation will be launched and what effect it'll have on the PS4. You can work out what I believe PS4 will sell by the end of 2019 but after that it's hard to say whether it'll have a very sharp decline (or even before then) or whether it'll see PS1/PS2 type legs.

The PS3 for example sold approximately ~81 million units* before the PS4 came out and since then (14 months) has sold in an additional ~7 million.* If I had to make a guess I'd say that PS3 won't even sell another 7 million before it's discontinued. Where as the PS2 sold another 50 million or so before it was discontinued after PS3 came out. Now of course we're talking about different consoles, different market conditions, different generational lengths etc... But the point I'm trying to make is that it's hard to say when the new generation will start and what impact that'll have on PS4.

*Numbers are estimated and rounded

I wonder if PS3 will ever be cheap enough to manufacture for Sony that it makes sense to drop it to $149-199 and still push it marketing wise.

 

[Maintenance]

It shows just how bad their hardware strategy has been across all platforms. The PS2 almost wipes out all of Nintendos lifetime platforms (excluding the Wii) sales being just shy 25 million.

One console achieved that type of success in 6-7 years what it took Nintendo around 2 decades and 5 consoles to do.

It's not a slam against the Wii by any stretch, it's more an argument for Nintendos failed approach to the market.

Yeah, I bet Nintendo is crying over the 600 million handheld + consoles sold, plus the profit that the other chart shows.

 

[jroc74]

It shows just how bad their hardware strategy has been across all platforms. The PS2 almost wipes out all of Nintendos lifetime platforms (excluding the Wii) sales being just shy 25 million.

One console achieved that type of success in 6-7 years what it took Nintendo around 2 decades and 5 consoles to do.

It's not a slam against the Wii by any stretch, it's more an argument for Nintendos failed approach to the market.

I've done it recently and in the past...but it really is a mistake to remove the Wii in talking about previous consoles sales, last gen sales. Nintendo has had a home console every generation. They even survived that time when everybody n their grandmother made a console...(I had a TG-16, loved the cartridge size)...that cannot be downplayed or saying "remove the Wii" is a dis service to them. They really do deserve credit for what they accomplished with the Wii.

My bad Nintendo.

What could be said is imagine if the Wii had similar numbers to previous Nintendo home consoles.....an average of the best selling ones or the highest or 2nd highest before the Wii. Maybe that would be accepted a lil better. And as you can see from the post above....better make sure and be specific and say home console when talking about Nintendo console sales... Of course they are absolutely killing it with handhelds. I have no problem with some saying Nintendo should only focus on handhelds and Sony only on home consoles. And I love the Vita.

I wonder if PS3 will ever be cheap enough to manufacture for Sony that it makes sense to drop it to $149-199 and still push it marketing wise.

The12GB revision is $199, I got it for $159 during a Walmart promotion.

 

[ZhugeEX]

it's more an argument for Nintendos failed approach to the market.

I think you need to do some research buddy. After all it's not just about total shipments.

Great job, Zhuge. Thanks for the info.

What I find really impressive are the PS3 numbers. To think it was such a mess at the start, and now closing on 90 million, is really a turnaround of proportions never seen before in gaming.

I wonder if PS3 can effectively hit 90 million though. Would put it on PS1's 102 million league which is just excellent.

Well PS3 sold in 3.4m units last year (CY2014) which is a very significant drop from over 14 million units a couple of years before. Due to the high demand for newer consoles, price of the PS3 and age, I don't think we'll see it get much over 90 million.

That's still very impressive from where it started. Especially when you consider what its competitors have sold in the same time frame.

hey ZhugeEx, if it hasn't been said already, you made a crave article =]

http://www.craveonline.com/gaming/articles/843043-370-million-playstation-consoles-sold-since-1994

so yeah, this is truly remarkable. if the Ps3 had a better launch, the number might've been even higher.

Never heard of them.

I noticed this thread has been picked up on a couple of Chinese blogs though haha.

I wonder if PS3 will ever be cheap enough to manufacture for Sony that it makes sense to drop it to $149-199 and still push it marketing wise.

There is still some life in the PS3 yet, I don't think it'll be discontinued till end of 2016 but I don't exactly see great sales till then either. For now I'm assuming LTD sales will be under 95 million.

 

[AngryNapkin]

Yeah, I bet Nintendo is crying over the 600 million handheld + consoles sold, plus the profit that the other chart shows.

We are discussing home consoles are we not?

 

[AngryNapkin]

I think you need to do some research buddy. After all it's not just about total shipments.



Well PS3 sold in 3.4m units last year (CY2014) which is a very significant drop from over 14 million units a couple of years before. Due to the high demand for newer consoles, price of the PS3 and age, I don't think we'll see it get much over 90 million.

That's still very impressive from where it started. Especially when you consider what its competitors have sold in the same time frame.



Never heard of them.

I noticed this thread has been picked up on a couple of Chinese blogs though haha.



There is still some life in the PS3 yet, I don't think it'll be discontinued till end of 2016 but I don't exactly see great sales till then either. For now I'm assuming LTD sales will be under 95 million.

I'm not familiar with their profit margins for every home console iteration as I don't have access to that information. Excluding their handheld lines have they seen an increase in revenue from each console generation?

What I do know is that the Wii drastically increased their income, and that outside the Wii they lost market share around 12-15 million average every generation.

Considering the Wii U is following that same trend it's hard to see how they can remain profitable on that front if the pattern continues into the next cycle.

QoL, Amiibos, Netflix Zelda, mobile games development, etc. I see that as Nintendo knows what I'm getting at as well.

It's all theoretical assumptions but that's what i see.

 

[Manmademan]

It shows just how bad their hardware strategy has been across all platforms. The PS2 almost wipes out all of Nintendos lifetime platforms (excluding the Wii) sales being just shy 25 million.

One console achieved that type of success in 6-7 years what it took Nintendo around 2 decades and 5 consoles to do.

It's not a slam against the Wii by any stretch, it's more an argument for Nintendos failed approach to the market.

Yep. Nintendo makes good games (some of the best in the business, though they certainly are reluctant to wander out of their niche) but their decisions with their console hardware, and as a platform holder have been absolutely abysmal.

I'm not familiar with their profit margins for every home console iteration as I don't have access to that information. Excluding their handheld lines have they seen an increase in revenue from each console generation?

I don't see how that's possible. Nintendo was losing nearly 40% of their base every generation until the Wii hit, and the switch from carts to discs with the GC meant a tremendous hit to their profitability- which is why they were so reluctant to move away from carts for so long.

 

[SolidSnakex]

All the while they are heavily bundling and discounting the XBO.

Comparatively Sony has been coasting.

Sony has been doing lots of bundles as well. As far as discounting goes, no they haven't been doing that. But why would they? If people are buying their console at the current price, then why would they discount it? You don't discount your console just because someone else did.

Also Destiny sold more on Xbox in the US despite the heavy marketing and higher LTD sales for some reason.

Is this taking into account the PS4 bundle? Because I know people initially thought that the Xbox One version sold more until it was pointed out that NPD doesn't combine games bundled with their standalone versions.

 

[Unknown One]

Wasn't a lot of Xbone Destiny copies given away for the purchase of the console?

 

[ZhugeEX]

The PS4 version has sold more LTD as far as I'm aware.

 

[StealthGoblin]

Wasn't a lot of Xbone Destiny copies given away for the purchase of the console?

Yeah. Microsoft gave away a ton of free games and had massive deals with retailers. They may not have had exclusive bundling rights like Sony, but they offered retail such good terms that they must have lost hand over fist.

 

[Maintenance]

We are discussing home consoles are we not?

With the way you're arbitrarily excluding a console "just because", I don't see how.

 

[Servbot24]

Sony should put out a super affordable PS3 mini so they can hit the 100mil mark.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Sony should put out a super affordable PS3 mini so they can hit the 100mil mark.

I think even if they dropped the price to $99 they still wouldn't see enough demand for 100 million.

I could be wrong though.

 

[Kasper]

Very interesting numbers. Thanks for the insight, Zhuge

If you can spare the time and you have the numbers, could you enlighten us on how SEGA consoles did in each generation? Just for comparisons sake.

 

[UpUpDownDown]

I think they'll make a tablet that can play Vita/PSP/PS1/PS2 game locally though. There's hope.

They're on mobile hardware now so do it like phones.

Update the chipsets to the latest and greatest every few years and offer backwards compatibility to the very first vita games.

The original vita titles could even run better/at higher resoloutions.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Very interesting numbers. Thanks for the insight, Zhuge

If you can spare the time and you have the numbers, could you enlighten us on how SEGA consoles did in each generation? Just for comparisons sake.

The only Sega Numbers I have saved are the following-

Console

Sega Megadrive/Genesis - 30.75m
Sega Saturn - 9.26m
Sega Dreamcast - 9.13m

Add On
Sega CD - 2.7m
Sega 32x - 0.6m


Sorry I can't help out further on this.

I can help out with gen 5 a bit-

This shows cumulative console sales for each gen 5 console.

 

[AmyS]

I think there will be a PS5. I think that if Project Morpheus becomes a commercial success, the second edition of Project Morpheus will definitely require local compute hardware as well for optimal Virtual Reality gameplay experiences where low latency is of high importance.

I do agree with this.

 

[Melchiah]

How could Zhuge never have played the original mario NES and SNES titles....? That's fucking blasphemy right there, and my first console was a genesis....even being a genesis kid, that feels so alien, hearing someone say they never played the Mario titles as a kid

It truly is a different age

I never played them either. I, and all my friends, had C64 and Amiga. Consoles weren't that popular here in Finland back then. I did play The Great Giana Sisters though, which was essentially the same.

 

[Valentus]

What did Sony do right, and/or what did Nintendo do wrong?

In my opinion:

1.- Sony sold the ps1 like a perfect complement to the living room, along with the VHS and your stereo. Sony sold the ps1 like a thing that you can show it without shame, whatever the age you were. Nintendo kept selling the SNES and N64 like a child's toy.

2.- The "cinema display" experience that pc's had were the hot shit in that time (the stores uses encarta to sold you a pc lol) and the PS1 was a perfect cinema display console. The N64 wasnt enable to do that.

3.- Squaresoft abandoned nintendo and made a blood oath to Sony.

4.- That's not a good reason in US and Japan, but in most of the world, easy piracy was the real system seller for ps1

5.- PS2 as a cheap DVD player. The Gamecube keeps using exotic storage system.

That's most of the reasons that comes to my mind.

 

[Melchiah]

The only Sega Numbers I have saved are the following-

Console

Sega Megadrive/Genesis - 30.75m
Sega Saturn - 9.26m
Sega Dreamcast - 9.13m

Huh, even Saturn was bigger than DC. I never knew that.

 

[Imm0rt4l]

Xbox Home Console Shipments = 122.8 million
Nintendo Home Console Shipments = 275 million
Sony Home Console Shipments = 370 million

*Numbers are rounded

Well when you put it that way...

 

[ZhugeEX]

Huh, even Saturn was bigger than DC. I never knew that.

Not exactly by much haha

 

[Melchiah]

Not exactly by much haha

That's true, but it still surprised me, because somehow I've always considered Saturn a bigger failure. Partly because of the hardware.

 

[Schrade]

I never played them either. I, and all my friends, had C64 and Amiga. Consoles weren't that popular here in Finland back then. I did play The Great Giana Sisters though, which was essentially the same.

I live in the US and I grew up on Vectrex/C64/C128/Amiga. I always thought the NES and SNES were absolute shit compared to what I was able to play on my Amiga.

Bought and paid for the C128 and Amiga myself so it made it so much better. It's a shame that so many people grew up without knowing the greatness of the Amiga.

I still have yet to own or be interested in anything that Nintendo creates. Most of the games have sounds or aesthetics that just turn me off. Even their OSes for their devices are ridiculous looking (at least those I've seen).

 

[leroidys]

I can't think of a bigger console turnaround than happened with the PS3 (in terms of sales and quality, not necessarily profitability.)

 

[jvm]

Hey, did you ever get quarterly numbers? I don't have them all...

Quarterly     12/31/94     03/31/95     06/30/95     09/30/95     12/31/95     03/31/96     06/30/96     09/30/96     12/31/96     03/31/97
PS1                             0.5                                                 0.9          1.7          3.0          2.6          1.9

Here are more LTD figures:
12/31/95: 3.4 million
03/31/96: 4.3 million (you have this)
06/30/96: 6.0 million
09/30/96: 9.0 million
12/31/96: 11.6 million

These are culled from Lexis-Nexis press releases and news articles from those years.

 

[Tidus_Great]

I can't think of a bigger console turnaround than happened with the PS3 (in terms of sales and quality, not necessarily profitability.)

the only problem with ps3 was the price started at 599 lol
people obviously love the playstation brand. ps1,ps2 and ps4 are king. ps3 not getting first place was just a fluke caused by ken kutaragis crazy ideas

 

[Wynnebeck]

With the way you're arbitrarily excluding a console "just because", I don't see how.

Well, considering Zhuge extrapolated data from "home consoles" and came to his conclusion, then yes handhelds are not included in that definition.

 

[AngryNapkin]

With the way you're arbitrarily excluding a console "just because", I don't see how.

Post 165.

I didn't exclude it "just because". (Wii)

If we are talking about the DS then of course I'm not going to include it, it's a completely different market and not part of the subject being discussed at all.

Even if it were there would still be plenty negative to say about it, it's just has nothing to do with the OP.

 

[Schrade]

the only problem with ps3 was the price started at 599 lol
people obviously love the playstation brand. ps1,ps2 and ps4 are king. ps3 not getting first place was just a fluke caused by ken kutaragis crazy ideas

It wasn't just the price... it was also the 360 being out for a year. It really caused problems for the PS3 in the US and the UK.

 

[biglittleps]

With the way you're arbitrarily excluding a console "just because", I don't see how.

Wii is an exception even though its a gaming console because it sold more to casuals as a device with motion control gimmick than to gamers as gaming device. Wii big success only because of casuals not because of real gamers who wanted that device so bad, whereas now PS4 success completely opposite because gamers buying it as a gaming device.