Aquamarine
Member
I told you....they work with companies like NPD and GfK to arrive at accurate numbers.
They're not some shit-tier, wannabe research firm. They're IDG. They get shit DONE.
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Sony Q3 FY15 Results - Beats Market Expectations & 6.4 Million Shipped PS4's
- Thread starter vinnygambini
- Start date
I told you....they work with companies like NPD and GfK to arrive at accurate numbers.
They're not some shit-tier, wannabe research firm. They're IDG. They get shit DONE.
Are their Ninjas just as scary as the NPD's...or worse?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
I can't speak for Aquamarine but when I had access to those reports the information was completely embargoed. Given how much the bank paid for them it is not information they wanted to release for no cost when we could put it into our own analyst reports (fully referenced of course!).
What event? The MVP thing that got posted here?
Thanks.
Well Well we live in interesting times indeed. Now let us all hope that this anomaly isn't just restricted to the first year of the consoles and keeps on going.....and please throw a bone to the Vita ^^
EDIT: Btw Aqua....isn't it time to change Avatar? Or hasn't the Persona stream worked you into buying a train ticket yet? ^^
The one in New York on Friday the 13th.
Even if it is a private events the numbers would leak out.
Not being funny but while I cannot go into detail (UK policy advisor if you want to know my job), I have been involved with something which involved IDG reports used by corporations. I can say for certainty that they are not infallible
Aquamarine
Member
But it's an original character...I can't change that!
You wouldn't download a console...
I've had experience with video-game related IDG numbers for a long time.
They produce wonderful summaries of the market using data from current and historical sources, such that their video game-related sell-through figures should be trusted.
That's all I'm going to say on the matter. I'm quite fed up with the incessant doubting of well-respected organisations and professional, high-caliber data figures.
The only thing that can be regarded as official numbers are one provided to shareholders, which is not being discussed here.
So going around calling for bans is like watching a child throwing their toys out of the pram
Grow up
SaucyJack
Member
No. You can't just add 0.5 m to the number and assume it belongs to XBO.
Thats an estimate.
No rational person is going to place any faith in a series of estimates (based in part upon combined shipments) without knowing the margin or error that comes with it. I'm pretty certain IDG will have published one, but the person we are quoting did not share that information.
It's surprising to see people here attempt to shut this down by appealing to authority.
Estimate with less than 1% margin of error. If you are allowed to disregard that then others should be as well.
Wait, wait...
By that post, what and who are you referring to in this thread? Because I thought conversation for last page and half has been about IDG estimates.
Mostly meant it as a stupid notion that the only way to be 100% spot on was the always online, activation, whatever method was first concocted.
As for downloading a console? Gimmie 3D printed one. Preferably a Saturn now please.
I wouldn't praise Sony for being transparent for transparency's sake. They are doing it because they have damn solid numbers and it's good business. I'd rather say that Sony's management prioritises good PR
From CES. Anyway, that was month ago. Probably sold-trough numbers are above 19 mil.
SaucyJack
Member
I wouldn't praise Sony for being transparent for transparency's sake. They are doing it because they have damn solid numbers and it's good business. I'd rather say that Sony's management prioritises good PR
Both Sony and Microsoft have a track record on transparency, or not, of reporting that goes way beyond console wars. I'm sure Aqua is more intimately familiar with this than almost every contributor to this board.
Microsoft have always been especially opaque. IIRC Forrester rated them the most opaque of the large tech vendors, with particular criticism in relation to reporting revenue.
In answer to part one, take two said exceeded 29m, amd said nearly 30m. None of them are exact numbers so hard to use a 1% error margin here in order to say anything in regards to what the number is.
In answer to part 2.
People who doubt Sony and MS sell in figures + people who doubt sell through to the extreme. For example, people who claim to know that Sony didn't sell through 18.5m and that the number must be wrong.
Clarkus Darkus
Member
With Bloodborne on the horizen along with The Order, I can see the ps4 surpassing 20mill sold through by the end of april.
You are missing an important distinction. Yes, Microsoft and Sony's own figures are inexact, but they are as close to the real thing as we are ever likely to get. I'm happy to accept their numbers in good faith, much the same way I treat any imprecise science. But here is where the disconnect comes in. By not making the best data we have available to the public--opting instead to obfuscate by announcing combined shipping numbers--the margin of error will only increase when an analysis is attempted externally. And it is this ever increasing margin of error (a metaphorical fig leaf) that offers people hope that Microsoft have sold more units than might be the case.
Just because some are paranoid conspiracy nut cases does not mean they deserve to be banned. They just have habit of questioning everything sometimes to their own determinant. Every time someone doubts official numbers from MS or Sony or Nintendo they just get laughed out of the thread. Shit, we laugh at Chartz all the time.
The 1% margin of error that you disregarded was from IDG. I mean...
Is your argument that IDG's margin of error is greater than that?
1st Course
Member
IDG = IDC, the guys who are notorious for reporting mobile/pc sales.
These guys are very accurate but wouldn't say 99% accurate, when they say 1% margin error they are probably talking statistics > 10,000 sample in X city/country give you X margin error. Of course that doesn't really apply to real world, no research report can give you 99% accuracy, that just too extreme %.
These guys are very accurate but wouldn't say 99% accurate, when they say 1% margin error they are probably talking statistics > 10,000 sample in X city/country give you X margin error. Of course that doesn't really apply to real world, no research report can give you 99% accuracy, that just too extreme %.
SaucyJack
Member
If we take the Sony and IDG numbers as accurate, which you would appear to agree is a reasonable thing to do,then you overreached in what it meant for MS numbers, this is why you're getting some flak.
Sony said they had sold through more than 18.5m at 31/12. They didn't say they had sold exactly 18.500.
IDG said the total exceeds 29m. We can't infer any higher figure from this as you did with the 29.5.
It is possible for both statements to be true and MS sell through to be less than 10.5 e.g say PS4 = 18.6, total = 29.001, therefore XBO would be 10.4. You can't therefore take those numbers and say XBO has a range of 10.5-11.5.
A statement that XBO is in the region of 10.5m is about as much as you can conclude from the data.
I get your point. Tbh I wasn't being 100% serious when I say they should all be banned. Just I had a stupid argument with some guy in the Microsoft thread who kept saying that MS must be lying to us and crap like that and it annoyed me how he was so adament that only Sony figures were right but MS must br wrong. Thats why I said the above.
Also, what 1% error margin are you talking about? there is no exact idg number. All we know is exceeded 29 million. That could be anything. we know sony sold through 18.5m+ so we can estimate that Xbox will be around ~10.5m, if not up to 11.5m based on AMD saying nearly 30M
I have no idea what the actual sell through for Xbox One was. Its likely and we can estimate thst it'll be around or in between the 10.5m-11.5m mentioned above.
SaucyJack
Member
You think their sales will slow down that much? They sold > 1 million/month globally in 2014,they're probably not far off 20 million today
Well shit. I'm in the valley of blind man and Aqua is my shepherd, so I just tend to believe her. Although, she never said 1% margin of error herself. So how accurate are they?
vpance
Member
British glasses guy sure knows his stuff, regarding PS4 and XB1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102398817
See the first 10s of the vid
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102398817
See the first 10s of the vid
That would be terrible, in order to do that they're gonna need to sell 350k units a month worldwide, that's horrific.
By the end of April PS4 could be anywhere between 22-23 million, could be higher if the PS4 sees growth due exclusive titles & Battlefield bundle.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
More like end of March at the absolutely latest. Probably this month though.
But Sony went that route because of PS3 mistake and needed to recover.
And they are recovering.
No one says they cant bet for more raw power on next gen.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
this was funny
Portugeezer
Member
End of April? End of February is more likely. By end of April, the PS4 will be closer to 22 million if anything
biglittleps
Member
Still Sony made PS4 powerful compared to competitors. They will do same in PS5 but i doubt we will see another console after PS4 as we're seeing F2P model and multiplayer oriented games being developed more now than before and these will dominate in 3 -5 years. So it make sense that Sony may go with cloud gaming(Compute) for horse power combined with affordable micro console because every game is going to be online only by then.
I dont think cloud gaming becomes ever the only gaming solution for Sony and MS.
That needs a very good internet connection and millions of consumers doesnt even had the infraestructure to have it.
Is OK to be an option, but not the only possible way to play their games.
If that ever happens, I'll switch to PC completely.
Aquamarine
Member
It's a bit like saying:
"No rational person is going to place any faith in NPD without knowing the precise margin of error that comes with it."
At the end of the day it's counter-productive to any sort of discussion because you can just spin your wheels over and over and over to the point of shutting down discussion (Mario sold this according to NPD? Well NPD is just an estimate. GfK said this? Well GfK is just an estimate, etc.), and we had so much bullshit about it in the Microsoft quarterly thread, so I got annoyed.
Yes, it depends on what kind of IDG report you're looking at. They do a whole bunch of stuff.
Mobile and PC sales are notoriously dificult to estimate because they are locked down by a few vendors who are completely unwilling to share any sales numbers.
So you have to get numbers from participating publishers through surveys, and that's not always comprehensive.
Don't mistake IDG's retail data (sourced from NPD, GfK, Famitsu, etc.) with IDG and mobile / digital / PC estimations.
Guess which other research firm is big on estimating the size of the mobile / digital / PC market?
That's right...everyone's favourite NPD Group!
Welfare
Member
But still no digital sales for video games.
We need to know how many PS4's are being sold digitally!
John Bender
Banned
It's hard to tell, we know that 20% of Destiny's sales were digital, the percentage is probably higher in the case of DriveClub due to PS+ discounts but lower in the case of FIFA due to the game's popularity in countries with less-than-ideal internet connections.
Yes, it would make sense for Sony to come out again with a $599 console, because everybody's still pining for the good old days when Sony respected their customers enough to pack some seriously advanced tech in their box...
What critics fail to understand that the numbers from NPD and GFK are so good, that Sony and Microsoft take them as closest thing to truth that they can get. If the guys basing their business decisions on sales numbers are willing to believe them, I don't understand why a random writer on a discussion board should have a reason to just casually ignore them as "estimates".
vpance
Member
That guy is probably a fanboy paid by Sony to repeat their lies.
He's just being brutally honest I guess
3:1 PS4 to XB1 outside of US and UK confirmed.Liabe Brave
Member
I think the lower end of this range is the only reasonable answer. We know Sony has 1.5m in the channel, and all the data for Microsoft indicates that, if anything, they have more. Given that the very highest estimates for shipped are 12.5m, 11m sold-through seems to be the true max of the range.
But the real point is that everyone, including you and I, is drawing conclusions based on further assumptions. Yes, it's futile to distrust the data points. But they're not the only elements in the analysis. For example:
Here you've dropped the "+" from Sony's number and the "nearly" from AMD's statement in order to obtain your 11.5m max. In truth, if we trust the data points then we can say with certainty that there's no way Microsoft can possibly be at 11.5m. And they could technically be as low as 10.1m.
I work in data analysis, and from your posts it sounds like you do too. You must know, therefore, that all analyses include more than just raw data. Other people coming up with different interpretations of the numbers' meaning than you doesn't make them automatically wrong.
I wouldn't be too surprised if they are at 20 mil already or very soon at least. They were at 18,5 mil a month ago and 1,5mil in that time isn't that difficult to imagine.
What you've quoted is just my estimate. So yeh of course it can be wrong. As can other estimates. I've just been very broad with my estimate. But I don't call people who make estimates wrong.
As I clarified earlier the people I call wrong are the crazy people who deny shipped numbers can be real and that Sony or MS must be making their numbers up.