Neither of them have much of a shot, but they got Cloud; they might've bit the bullet and got Banjo, too. Seeing how Minecraft's coming to the Wii U, there's a Windows costume in the code for Mario Maker, and Jetpac's in the VC port of DK64, Nintendo and Microsoft have been doing stuff behind the scenes. Banjo would've made more sense than Cloud, or than any of the above, so I actually think he has a chance now.
As for Papyrus? I dunno. He's the mascot, while Frisk is a 3rd kid in a striped shirt. She doesn't have much going moveset-wise, either. That hasn't been a problem in the past, but it's been for characters like Captain Falcon, Ms. Fit, or Villager, where no one else from their series could do better. Meanwhile, Papyrus could be an interesting Zoner. There's no way Undertale's getting in Smash, but I was trying to think of a PC-original character for that scenario.
Then again, Cloud might've gotten in by "casual" ballot votes that we didn't keep track of, and I can guarantee you that Banjo was a (If not "the") top choice for people that didn't care about who owns what. Plus, Undertale launched in September, and the hype around it was volatile; maybe the tail end of the ballot had a brief surge of Undertale votes? After Cloud, I don't think I can count anyone out. I mean, I'd still rather have Ridley or Wonder Red, but I'd welcome either of these characters with open arms.
