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The Official 2008 NPD Prediction Thread
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
AlternativeUlster
Absolutely pathetic part deux
[PS3] 3,500,000
[PS2] 3,700,000
[PSP] 3,900,000
[360] 5,500,000
[WII] 9,200,000
[NDS] 10,100,000
[PS2] 3,700,000
[PSP] 3,900,000
[360] 5,500,000
[WII] 9,200,000
[NDS] 10,100,000
Dead Prince
Banned
[360] 3890K
[NDS] 6255K
[PS2] 2222K
[PS3] 3980K
[PSP] 5500K
[WII] 5900K
[NDS] 6255K
[PS2] 2222K
[PS3] 3980K
[PSP] 5500K
[WII] 5900K
Maxwell House
Member
[360] 5,780,000
[NDS] 8,500,000
[PS2] 2,380,000
[PS3] 3,840,000
[PSP] 3,820,000
[WII] 6,290,000
[NDS] 8,500,000
[PS2] 2,380,000
[PS3] 3,840,000
[PSP] 3,820,000
[WII] 6,290,000
Feral Youth
Banned
[PS2] 2300K
[PS3] 3100K
[PSP] 5100K
[NDS] 5600K
[WII] 4800K
[360] 3900K
[PS3] 3100K
[PSP] 5100K
[NDS] 5600K
[WII] 4800K
[360] 3900K
Livin_Lovin
Member
Wow. Two Wii failing predictions already. I am so ready for 2008.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Last year I did this by taking numbers from a sample year, then making adjustments. This year I'm doing the same, though last year's results sucked. However, with all of the consoles being established presences now, there's a lot less unknown. Basing Wii 2008 on Wii 2007 should work out a lot better than basing Wii 2007 on an upgraded GCN 2002, for instance.
[DS] 7968K
[Wii] 7580K
[360] 4298K
[PSP] 4087K
[PS2] 2959K
[PS3] 2899K
[DS] 7968K
[Wii] 7580K
[360] 4298K
[PSP] 4087K
[PS2] 2959K
[PS3] 2899K
What am I doing here? :lol I have never tried this before. And I'm not an expert at this by any means, but I will try to give the most precise estimates I could come up with in my vague little head.
[WII] 6.72 Mil
[PS3] 5.85 Mil
[DC2] 4.81 Mil
[360] 3.825 Mil
[DS] 7.63 Mil
[PSP] 4.84 Mil
LET THE GAMES BEGIN!
[WII] 6.72 Mil
[PS3] 5.85 Mil
[DC2] 4.81 Mil
[360] 3.825 Mil
[DS] 7.63 Mil
[PSP] 4.84 Mil
LET THE GAMES BEGIN!
[360]4400k
[NDS]8200k
[PS2]2600k
[PS3]3200k
[PSP]3700k
[WII]7800k
comments:
360 will do slightly worse this year due to lack of franchises such as Halo to drive sales. Gears 2 may hit this year, but it won't be the system seller the original was.
DS will do slightly worse this year, but still top everyone. similar case with the PSP. nothing terribly bad, just a little drop off in sales.
the PS2 will finally start to show signs of slowing with the PS3 actually outselling the system for the year. the PS3 will see a resurgence, but not the kind that will rocket it terribly far forward.
finally, the Wii will rise to heaven. post-holiday demand will keep sales high until Brawl, Mario Kart, and WiiFit maintain sales through the summer. Nintendo will lay down a few great games for the holiday season and take the holiday season as well.
[NDS]8200k
[PS2]2600k
[PS3]3200k
[PSP]3700k
[WII]7800k
comments:
360 will do slightly worse this year due to lack of franchises such as Halo to drive sales. Gears 2 may hit this year, but it won't be the system seller the original was.
DS will do slightly worse this year, but still top everyone. similar case with the PSP. nothing terribly bad, just a little drop off in sales.
the PS2 will finally start to show signs of slowing with the PS3 actually outselling the system for the year. the PS3 will see a resurgence, but not the kind that will rocket it terribly far forward.
finally, the Wii will rise to heaven. post-holiday demand will keep sales high until Brawl, Mario Kart, and WiiFit maintain sales through the summer. Nintendo will lay down a few great games for the holiday season and take the holiday season as well.
Cheesemeister
Member
Basch said:
Try again.
Cheesemeister
Member
Basch said:You're right...
Wrong format.
Sweedishrodeo
the smegma spreader
[360] 5500K
[NDS] 10000K
[PS2] 1200K
[PS3] 6000K
[PSP] 3000K
[WII] 9600K
[NDS] 10000K
[PS2] 1200K
[PS3] 6000K
[PSP] 3000K
[WII] 9600K
Cheesemeister
Member
What's a DC2, anyway? That'll get tossed out.
Sweedishrodeo
the smegma spreader
donny2112 said:
ahahaha the win
edit: he must be referring to preorders, dude.
cortland_andrus
Banned
[DS] 8,800,000
[Wii] 8,300,000
[360] 5,100,000
[PSP] 4,400,000
[PS2] 3,300,000
[PS3] 3,100,000
[Wii] 8,300,000
[360] 5,100,000
[PSP] 4,400,000
[PS2] 3,300,000
[PS3] 3,100,000
Thunder Monkey
Banned
[360] 5,500,000
[NDS] 8,900,000
[PS2] 3,400,000
[PS3] 3,100,000
[PSP] 3,800,000
[WII] 7,600,000
[NDS] 8,900,000
[PS2] 3,400,000
[PS3] 3,100,000
[PSP] 3,800,000
[WII] 7,600,000
[360] 5,525,000
[NDS] 8,210,000
[PS2] 2,770,000
[PS3] 4,440,000
[PSP] 4,760,000
[WII] 7,430,000
I did weekly averages for the current gen consoles, and year-to-year adjustments for the others. Some assumptions I made:
- 360 gets a $50 price cut in time for GTA IV
- 360 and PS3 get sales increase because of GTA IV (~50% and gradually going down to pre-GTA IV levels in the subsequent months)
- PS3 gets a $100 price cut for the Holidays
- 360 gets another $50 price cut to combat the PS3 price cut
- Wii will be selling out all year, with sales numbers adjusted for higher production capacities (basically continuing with ~100-125k weekly average sales as they were before the Holidays)
[NDS] 8,210,000
[PS2] 2,770,000
[PS3] 4,440,000
[PSP] 4,760,000
[WII] 7,430,000
I did weekly averages for the current gen consoles, and year-to-year adjustments for the others. Some assumptions I made:
- 360 gets a $50 price cut in time for GTA IV
- 360 and PS3 get sales increase because of GTA IV (~50% and gradually going down to pre-GTA IV levels in the subsequent months)
- PS3 gets a $100 price cut for the Holidays
- 360 gets another $50 price cut to combat the PS3 price cut
- Wii will be selling out all year, with sales numbers adjusted for higher production capacities (basically continuing with ~100-125k weekly average sales as they were before the Holidays)