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The Official 2008 NPD Prediction Thread

G

gollumsluvslave

Member
[360] 5900k
[NDS] 9500k
[PS2] 3500k
[PS3] 4500k
[PSP] 4300k
[WII] 7800k


Wii will simply carry on in the way it did in 2007 - something pretty drastic would have to change for it to suddenly fade off; it's possible that GTAIV may be something that puts Wii in a poorer light, but I'm doubtful on that - the graphics of Gears, Uncharted etc has had no effect on the Wii so far. Wii will simply get better production, more demand (Smash Bros), and likely more 3rd party games in 2008.

PS3 definitely has an upturn in momentum, but this is in comparison to it's fortunes earlier in the year. I simply can't see PS3 beating 360 in monthly sales until MGS4 is released at the earliest, by which time I'd expect a 360 price cut - Sony may match an April 360 price cut, but I question whether they can afford that so quickly - i'd expect a $100 drop on PS3 for fall as more likely. GTAIV will obviously boost PS3, but likely not as much as 360.

360 should have another $50 price cut around April, which along with GTAIV should stimulate sales. I expect some new game announcements for 2008 (Gears 2) to address the questions of game lineup. With a lower price point, new Falcon's everywhere, and a GTAIV price drop, I'd expect 360 to handily exceed the weekly 2007 sales from March onwards. I'd then expect another $50 price drop in fall response to any PS3 cut.
360 holds the pricing advantage in 2008, and unless MS are dumb as shit (which is not unheard of) they will use to the fullest.
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
PS3 would need to average significantly higher monthly sales than it's best month ever so far. Looks like we've got a serious contender for last place.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
FWIW,

I'll be posting a followup to my 2007 HW Review, where I'll discuss some of the historic trends for HW sales as they apply to 2008.

That is, what do 2007's HW sales mean for 2008 based on past cycles and where in the cycle is each platform? Obviously, each generation has it's own pecularities and this cycle seems to have a ton of differences from past generations that will need to be taken into account.

But, take a look at my link above for you guys to have an appreciation of how special 2007's HW sales were.
 
C

Concept17

Member
Coulda swore I posted here already...

[PS2] 3,000,000
[PS3] 5,500,000
[PSP] 4,000,000
[360] 4,500,000
[WII] 5,000,000
[NDS] 8,000,000
 
A

Anth

Member
Cheesemeister said:
This is true. Outliers get disqualified so as not to screw with the GAF Aggregate numbers.
Click to expand...
Doesn't that technically make them GAF sans complete nutjobs/legalized joke characters Aggregate numbers?
 
S

scottnak

Member
Welp. I'll play too.

[360] 4,890,801
[NDS] 9,191,777
[PS2] 2,202,202
[PS3] 3,093,939
[PSP] 4,011,103
[WII] 7,887,888

Playing piggyback with the smart one. Yessirree.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Less than 26 hours left to predict for 2008!

[360] 4805K (+4%)
[NDS] 8150K (-4%)
[PS2] 4344K (+9% - I'm expecting $99 this year)
[PS3] 2957K (+16%)
[PSP] 3620K (-5%)
[WII] 7900K (+26% - sold out by the end of 2008)
 
C

Chumly

Member
Looks like im late : / Im gonna predict anyways

[360] 4500k
[NDS] 8500k
[PS2] 2500k
[PS3] 3500k
[PSP] 3500k
[WII] 8000k
 
P

Psychotext

Member
I forgot about this... damn. Back of an envelope guessing incoming:

[360] 5,200,000
[NDS] 8,100,000
[PS2] 3,250,000
[PS3] 4,800,000
[PSP] 4,700,000
[WII] 7,850,000

Would be nice if the deadline wasn't too strict on this one. But at least I'll have my numbers down for my usage anyway. :D
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Predictions are closed.

Number of contestants: 97

GAF Aggregate said:
[NDS] 8,584,696
[WII] 7,385,235
[360] 5,048,149
[PSP] 4,095,927
[PS3] 4,002,645
[PS2] 2,955,459
Click to expand...

Disqualified: Chumly, Psychotext, SIP YEK NOD, spwolf.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Predictions are closed.
Click to expand...

I like that, thanks to you and your parser, we weren't limited to a single decimal point this time around. It'll be fun, as usual, to come back to this thread next January. :D
 
P

Psychotext

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Sorry, just following the rules. I can calculate your prediction results for you if you'd like, but you just won't be ranked.
Click to expand...
What will happen now is that I'll be most accurate and people will accuse me of having a time machine that took too long to get working. :lol
 
T

thestopsign

Member
God I procrastinated on this.

[360] 4,400k
[NDS] 7,500k
[PS2] 2,000k
[PS3] 3,900k
[PSP] 4,000k
[WII] 7,000k

EDIT: Seems I procrastinated AND I'm blind. :p
 
E

Earthstrike

Member
I know the predictions are closed, but since this thread will quoted, I'll be able to see how I do in a year.

[360] 5500k
[NDS] 8500k
[PS2] 1800k
[PS3] 4100k
[PSP] 5300k
[WII] 8600k

Really out of my ass, but lets see how it goes.
 
D

donny2112

Member
2008 Totals

WII - 10,171K
NDS - 9,952K
360 - 4,735K
PSP - 3,829K
PS3 - 3,545K
PS2 - 2,503K

Even if we have a smattering of numbers to put in the hundreds' spots, I don't think we have precise enough numbers for the year to say them with certainty. :)
 
C

Chumly

Member
donny2112 said:
2008 Totals

WII - 10,171K
NDS - 9,952K
360 - 4,735K
PSP - 3,829K
PS3 - 3,545K
PS2 - 2,503K

Even if we have a smattering of numbers to put in the hundreds' spots, I don't think we have precise enough numbers for the year to say them with certainty. :)
Click to expand...
[360] 4500k
[NDS] 8500k
[PS2] 2500k
[PS3] 3500k
[PSP] 3500k
[WII] 8000k

Nice I was only off by 612k for the 360, PS3, PS2, PSP.
I was off 3623k for Wii and DS : /
for a grand total of 4235k
 
Randy Lanzarote

Randy Lanzarote

Member
donny2112 said:
WII - 10,171K
NDS - 9,952K
360 - 4,735K
PSP - 3,829K
PS3 - 3,545K
PS2 - 2,503K
Click to expand...


[NDS] 8500k - -1452k
[WII] 6800k - -3371k
[360] 5500k - +765k
[PS3] 3700k - +155k
[PSP] 3400k - -429k
[PS2] 2550k - +47k

6219k out...... hmmm..... I guess I won't be the only one who underestimated the Wii. :/
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
donny2112 said:
2008 Totals

WII - 10,171K
NDS - 9,952K
360 - 4,735K
PSP - 3,829K
PS3 - 3,545K
PS2 - 2,503K
Click to expand...
Mine:

[360] 4500K (235k off, very good)
[NDS] 8400K (1,152k off, fuck you Nintendo)
[PS2] 2500K (3k off, spot on)
[PS3] 4000K (455k off, good)
[PSP] 4000K (171k off, very good)
[WII] 8200K (1,971k off, fuck you Nintendo again)

Overall, I was off by 3,987k which is better than most predictions it seems.
 
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