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[serplux]

With he compete lack of 3rd parties, most of Wiiu lifespan will be in perpetual drought after drought and Nintendo cant make HD games as fast. Even if they do recover this holiday, there will be another drought next year.

There isn't a "complete" lack of third-parties. There will still be third-party exclusives on the system. Plus, we still don't know the full situation. I'd give it until next year for sure. The Wii U can have a steady release schedule. It'll be fine.

 

[Pociask]

A 2D Mario isn't a "big hitter"?

It's one of Nintendo main guns.

I'm going to quote a post I did in an old NPD thread, which I think is relevant here:

As pointed out by others, Twilight Princess was much more targeting at hard core Nintendo fans, and had been anticipated for years. They announced they were developing a new Zelda coming for Gamecube in 2003. They first showed a trailer at E3 2004. They showed more stuff at E3 2005. They showed off the Wii version at E3 2006. Then they pushed back the Gamecube version a month to push Zelda fans to pick up a Wii. It then was released in fall of 06. In terms of other Zelda games, it was the first console game since Wind Waker in 2002, and the portable Zeldas released in that time span weren't really anything like what Twilight Princess offered.

So you've got:
Year 0 (Wind Waker Release)
Year 1(new Zelda announcement)
Year 2(E3)
Year 3(E3)
Year 4 (Wii version E3 - launch)

Put NSMBU on that timeline and it's not as favorable, especially considering similar NSMB releases:

Year 0 (NSMB is still topping sales charts)
Year 1(NSMBWii announced, E3, NSMBWii released)
Year 2 (Nintendo announces new 2d Mario for 3DS)
Year 3 (E3 tech demo NSMB Mii)
Year 4 (NSMB2 released. E3 showing NSMBU, launch)

There was really no chance NSMBU was going to sell as well AT LAUNCH as well as Twilight Princess. Certainly it has good chances of outselling it over the years.

 

[metalslimer]

There isn't a "complete" lack of third-parties. There will still be third-party exclusives on the system. Plus, we still don't know the full situation. I'd give it until next year for sure. The Wii U can have a steady release schedule. It'll be fine.

So i guess we're in wait for _____ with wiiu now. he writing is on the wall for 3rd parties

 

[serplux]

So i guess we're in wait for _____ with wiiu now.

It's more, "wait until games are released" rather than "wait until games are announced". That's a big difference. We know Capcom has projects, we know Namco Bandai's working on the system. Third-parties will have games on the system.

 

[deviljho]

So i guess we're in wait for _____ with wiiu now. he writing is on the wall for 3rd parties

No one will die from waiting. Other companies also make video games.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

The pics are too small where HD won't make that much of a difference, but by your rationale then we shouldn't expect Mario Kart or 3D Mario games are not going to be enough to convince people to upgrade as they will not look that much better either.

Therein lies Nintendo's problem. Their franchises have never relied on "WOW AWESOME GRAFIX MAAAAAAAN!" so they don't translate well to the HD era in terms of offering a new experience. 3D Mario in HD is still just the same game as 3D Mario in SD, but in HD. That much was clear from playing NSMBU, which is almost identical to NSMBWii.

 

[Father_Brain]

What kind of recovery are you expecting? I think this "wait for" that is being used by Nintendo fans is ironic, to say the least. I'm not saying those 1st party games can't give the WiiU a boost, I actually expect it since they gave even the GC and N64 boosts, but the WiiU problems go beyond that IMO. We'll see if G&W and DQX really boost the WiiU in Japan as some people are hoping they will.

I did say "to some extent." Currently, I think the best-case scenario for Wii U's eventual worldwide LTD is around N64 levels (~32M) and the worst-case is a bit below GC numbers (~16-18m). I don't think that's too unreasonable given the software that we know is coming, but I'll certainly be willing to revise those expectations downward or upward depending on the actual impact the bigger releases have on hardware sales, and on just how bad the 2014 drought shapes up to be.

 

[metalslimer]

No one will die from waiting. Other companies also make video games.

Except the Wii U. We've seen what significant droughts will do to a software ecosystem before.

I did say "to some extent." Currently, I think the best-case scenario for Wii U's eventual worldwide LTD is around N64 levels (~32M) and the worst-case is a bit below GC numbers (~16-18m). I don't think that's too unreasonable given the software that we know is coming, but I'll certainly be willing to revise those expectations depending on the actual impact the bigger releases have on hardware sales.

Reasonable

 

[deviljho]

3D Mario in HD is still just the same game as 3D Mario in SD, but in HD. That much was clear from playing NSMBU, which is almost identical to NSMBWii.

The assumption here is that the experience gotten from their games doesn't change much and won't from Wii to Wii U. And it's really not an easy assumption to back up.

While you can say that Nintendo's business shrank from last year to this year to highlight that MS/Sony business didn't shrink, the flipside is that their businesses didn't grow either. Usually, when one company loses market share, the others gain some of that. No one is doubting that the Wii U's launch sucks... cause it does. It's awful. But it's not the end of the road, either.

 

[Basileus777]

No one will die from waiting. Other companies also make video games.

Not for the WiiU.

 

[radioheadrule83]

Until there are some concrete numbers released, it's pointless to even mention. People will gleefully scoff at the suggestion in the absence of any decent data.

So far there is only anecdotal comments from devs and retailers and the PSN charts to go on. Signs do point to the Vita shifting a proportionally high chunk of digital sales but without being able to conclusively prove it, it's irrelevant.

The new Fire Emblem on 3DS sold over half of the months total digitally. I do think digital sales are going to be more significant as far as the manufacturers and publishers are concerned. Its a real shame that we don't get our hands on the data, and that they're not really sharing it with GfK / NPD etc. as I'm sure it would make things a little more interesting.

 

[yellowjacket25]

There is absolutely no way to support this theory as Sony doesn't give out any kind of numbers these days.

I really do wish Sony would. It would be pretty interesting to see the numbers. In my case, about 2/3 of the games I own for Vita are digital. My case may be a little high but it doesn't seem unreasonable that most Vita users have a good mix of digital and physical games. It would also be interesting to see the bump in digital PSP sales after the launch of the Vita as well.

 

[POWERSPHERE]

It's a great system with an exciting future if it doesn't fall off the face of the earth.

 

[metalslimer]

I really do wish Sony would. It would be pretty interesting to see the numbers. In my case, about 2/3 of the games I own for Vita are digital. My case may be a little high but it doesn't seem unreasonable that most Vita users have a good mix of digital and physical games. It would also be interesting to see the bump in digital PSP sales after the launch of the Vita as well.

Even if the sales were double meaning digital was 50% 70k would still be abysmal

 

[tapedeck]

I dont know what anyone expected. The system is overpriced and underpowered, Nintendoland obviously does not have the appeal of Wii Sports, there are no AAA Nintendo titles out yet, people are getting hyped about PS4 (and possibly 720) and from my perspective public awareness of the system in general is almost non-existent. This has been said a bazillion times before but once Smash 4/Mario/Zelda drop sales will drastically increase. I think Smash Bros 4 is their make or brake game for the system.

 

[tassletine]

Yup. This may be the worst major launch ever and it's not over: this will continue until November when every system gets a boost due to the holidays. The WiiU is effectively finished, you can't fix mindshare and negative customer perception quickly...and by the time it evens out the next gen systems will be out.

You're wrong. Nintendo have turned things around before. Everyone I've spoken to is extremely happy with their system (except for the lack of games) so it's got good word of mouth. There's nothing wrong with it except the OS which is improving and will be fixed (but currently still allows you to get into games faster than an xbox!)

It really comes down to: Do Sony or Microsoft have their shit together for Christmas? My gut, going on past launches is it probably isn't going to be that great. Launches never are.

So potentially what we could be getting here is a WiiU (with a fixed OS) and a price cut, going against full price Sony and Microsoft, who may or may not have a decent launch line up. Nintendo will probably have a 3D Mario / Wii sports / Bayonetta out by that point as well, amongst other already released titles like Monster Hunter, Pikmin, Wonderful 101 etc.
not forgetting Pokemon (and those toys) which in Japan at least will boost system sales immensely.

Now if, like most launch titles, the graphics on the ps3 / 360 aren't that much of a leap (people will be comparing games like Watch Dogs) Then the average customer won't be able to tell the difference, and Nintendo's software library could become very attractive, especially if the machine is half the price of the competition.

So, I don't think the odds look that bad in a recession. Given that consoles seem to be on the way out anyway, I think Sony and Microsoft are going to find it very hard to shift units, as they're not 'must have' devices any more.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

The assumption here is that the experience gotten from their games doesn't change much and won't from Wii to Wii U. And it's really not an easy assumption to back up.

Well I was just going by NSMBU which is basically just the same game as NSMBWii but in HD.

While you can say that Nintendo's business shrank from last year to this year to highlight that MS/Sony business didn't shrink, the flipside is that their businesses didn't grow either. Usually, when one company loses market share, the others gain some of that. No one is doubting that the Wii U's launch sucks... cause it does. It's awful. But it's not the end of the road, either.

Generation fatigue, and I would venture that if we include XBL/PSN revenue MS and Sony would be up YoY.

 

[michaelius]

Also so late in generation the revenues should be failing so with both staying flat we can say that marketshare change is countered by natural sales drop from market saturation.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Still not as "dead" as Vita, given that the first-party software coming later this year will result in a recovery to some extent. But still pretty fucked for a while, and probably only slightly unfucked for the remainder of the generation.

In Vita's case, there's nothing coming or that could even conceivably be announced at this point that would move significant quantities of hardware outside Japan, given the failure of every major 2012 release for the platform to do so.

This is so cute.

 

[yellowjacket25]

Even if the sales were double meaning digital was 50% 70k would still be abysmal

I didn't say it wouldn't be. I just said it would be interesting to see how digital sales are really doing. You really need to get off of your obsessive Vita hatred train.

 

[Mpl90]

This is so cute.

You should need to stop hating everyone for everything said against Sony, though. :sese

 

[m.i.s.]

Given the dearth of third-party support and Nintendo's ineptitude at getting first-party games out the door, I'd say N64's LTD is increasingly looking like a best-case scenario.

As I've stated in the PAL thread, the N64 was a powerhouse [with a 3D analog controller] and had the might of not only Nintendo's own first party hits [SM64 and Ocarina amongst others] but also the powerhouse that was Rare Ltd during it's expansionist phase. That system had genre-defining titles such as Goldeneye. As so far appears to be the case, the Wii U just doesn't have that luxury. I'm increasingly thinking that slightly above GCN figures [25 million] is the best case scenario for Wii U.

 

[metalslimer]

I didn't say it wouldn't be. I just said it would be interesting to see how digital sales are really doing. You really need to get off of your obsessive Vita hatred train.

You should probably not be so defensive when discussing the sales of a toy.

And I think the strength of Nintendo's franchises alone can carry them to 50M (since the market has expanded from the N64/GC eras).

Doest mean that market cares about mos of those franchises.

 

[serplux]

I did say "to some extent." Currently, I think the best-case scenario for Wii U's eventual worldwide LTD is around N64 levels (~32M) and the worst-case is a bit below GC numbers (~16-18m). I don't think that's too unreasonable given the software that we know is coming, but I'll certainly be willing to revise those expectations downward or upward depending on the actual impact the bigger releases have on hardware sales, and on just how bad the 2014 drought shapes up to be.

I think it will reach around 50m worldwide. We just don't know enough about the software schedule. I mean, they still have (potentially) Animal Crossing, Donkey Kong, the Excite series, Star Fox, Sin and Punishment, WarioWare, Metroid, Kirby, Fire Emblem, Kid Icarus, Punch-Out, the Wii series, and Mario spinoffs just to announce. And I think the strength of Nintendo's franchises alone can carry them to 50M (since the market has expanded from the N64/GC eras).

 

[Father_Brain]

This is so cute.

What a compelling, fact-based rebuttal. I stand corrected; you have truly convinced me that Vita is well on the way to overcoming its rough start and will surely soon become a genuine mass-market competitor in the handheld market.

 

[AranhaHunter]

I already mentioned that in my post, that's exactly how the average casual gamer is going to see the screenshot when they click on it on IGN.

I'm willing to bet that you will be able to tell the difference, graphically, between a 3D Mario or Mario Kart on the Wii U and their Wii counterparts. The nature of NSMBU and it's graphics/art style does not lend favourably to that comparison. That's why relying on NSMBU to be a big system seller was an idiotic move on Nintendo's part.

I'm not convinced, especially in the case of Mario Kart. Let's nor forget that when Galaxy came out we had some people claiming it looked better than most 360 games.

It's more, "wait until games are released" rather than "wait until games are announced".

That's the wait for _____ phase. Maybe you weren't here and don't know, but it's the PS3 infamous chalkboard, "wait for MGS4", "wait for price drop", "wait for FFXIII", "wait for GTAIV", and so on.

Therein lies Nintendo's problem. Their franchises have never relied on "WOW AWESOME GRAFIX MAAAAAAAN!" so they don't translate well to the HD era in terms of offering a new experience. 3D Mario in HD is still just the same game as 3D Mario in SD, but in HD. That much was clear from playing NSMBU, which is almost identical to NSMBWii.

Indeed. Gameplay has always been Nintendo's forte and their games have butter smooth, fantastic gameplay for the most part. I doubt graphics will take a Killzone 1 - Killzone 2 graphics and make people's jaws drop and go to their local store and buy a WiiU based on that alone. I guess we'll see, but I don't think a MK HD will drive people in droves to get WiiUs, it will sell some millions like it sold on Gamecube, but it won't be a 20-30 million seller like it was on Wii/DS as some people are claiming and desperately hoping for. I don't think even MK7 on 3DS won't sell 1/2 of what MK sold on DS (it's currently ~1/5 according to wiki), let alone MK WiiU.

I did say "to some extent." Currently, I think the best-case scenario for Wii U's eventual worldwide LTD is around N64 levels (~32M) and the worst-case is a bit below GC numbers (~16-18m). I don't think that's too unreasonable given the software that we know is coming, but I'll certainly be willing to revise those expectations downward or upward depending on the actual impact the bigger releases have on hardware sales, and on just how bad the 2014 drought shapes up to be.

That's fair. I personally think they can sell SNES type numbers if they fix a lot of the problems the system has before the PS4 and Durango come out. Go aggressive with price drops, bundles, and money hat 3rd party games like they did MH and DQ, but exclusively now. However, the window for turning it around is getting smaller by the day.

 

[metalslimer]

The true hook that intendo could have had at lauch would have bee a fully online 2d mario and nintendoland with a level creator for both. Instead nintendo still thinks no one cares about online and even the gamepad mp in nsmbu is gimped

What a compelling, fact-based rebuttal. I stand corrected; you have truly convinced me that Vita is well on the way to overcoming its rough start and will surely soon become a genuine mass-market competitor in the handheld market.

Thats what happens when you have no counter in every thread

 

[Piers]

Not surprising, given that the Gamecube was an embarrassing console to own in the UK. Saying that, the Wii's launch left my jaw hanging, and I still can't believe I didn't get one until early May the following year.

Regardless, don't know if the WiiU's failure is the fact Nintendo didn't do a good job at marketing/games release or because the UK is rather black-and-white on what has more technical power/better games.

 

[SmokyDave]

There isn't a "complete" lack of third-parties. There will still be third-party exclusives on the system. Plus, we still don't know the full situation. I'd give it until next year for sure. The Vita can have a steady release schedule. It'll be fine.

Fixed to make me giggle a little.

It's such an interesting place we find ourselves in.

What a compelling, fact-based rebuttal. I stand corrected; you have truly convinced me that Vita is well on the way to overcoming its rough start and will surely soon become a genuine mass-market competitor in the handheld market.

I don't think a fact-based rebuttal is needed in order to justify a wry smile. You're basically doing exactly what you've spent a year chastising others for doing. Admittedly, the Nintendo titles are likelier to shift units than Killzone or Tearaway, but that doesn't stop the post coming off as quite funny.

 

[michaelius]

What a compelling, fact-based rebuttal. I stand corrected; you have truly convinced me that Vita is well on the way to overcoming its rough start and will surely soon become a genuine mass-market competitor in the handheld market.

Why would he waste his time when nothing would convince you ?

 

[Mpl90]

Indeed. Gameplay has always been Nintendo's forte and their games have butter smooth, fantastic gameplay for the most part. I doubt graphics will take a Killzone 1 - Killzone 2 graphics and make people's jaws drop and go to their local store and buy a WiiU based on that alone. I guess we'll see, but I don't think a MK HD will drive people in droves to get WiiUs, it will sell some millions like it sold on Gamecube, but it won't be a 20-30 million seller like it was on Wii/DS as some people are claiming and desperately hoping for. I don't think even MK7 on 3DS won't sell 1/2 of what MK sold on DS (it's currently ~1/5 according to wiki), let alone MK WiiU.

Mario Kart DS is at 22.57 as of March, 2012 (over 6 years its launch)
Mario Kart 7 is at 7.73 as of December, 2012 (basically one year after the launch). More like 1/3 in just one year.

 

[yellowjacket25]

You should probably not be so defensive when discussing the sales of a toy.

I wasn't even being defensive. I said it would be interesting to see the digital sales of the platform since that is information we don't usually get. You felt that a reasonable response to that was who cares, Vita is a failure, hur hur hur. If you would like to give some kind of intelligent response other than just bashing the system over and over again, that would be nice.

 

[metalslimer]

Fixed to make me giggle a little.

It's such an interesting place we find ourselves in.

Pretty much. I have to check the dates on these threads to make sure were talking about the same system

I wasn't even being defensive. I said it would be interesting to see the digital sales of the platform since that is information we don't usually get. You felt that a reasonable response to that was who cares, Vita is a failure, hur hur hur. If you would like to give some kind of intelligent response other than just bashing the system over and over again, that would be nice.

No my response was that digital figures for vita in the UK would not be interesting because even i a best case scenario the sales would still be awful and you couldnt extrapolate that info elsewhere. So yes vita is a failure and i dont think seeing how much o a slightly less failure it is would be that interesting. Ps3/360 digital sales would be much more interesting considering they are actually relevant platforms

 

[Subhero]

So we are off into the "Wii U is dead/alive and well/we just don't know/I hereby predict x Mio sales" space and have chosen this thread as our plat du jour?
The points were sales of Wii U and Vita in the UK based on some unspecified (?) data with focus on Nintendo declines YOY.
Questions that could be raised/discussed: Is UK representative of a trend or of the actual sales for whole PAL-land? How relevant is UK data? Has the UK lost their "taste" for everything Nintendo or does Nintendo not cater to the UK on purpose?
No?

 

[dmr87]

The Wii U is going to be mediocre until Nintendo releases their own stuff.

 

[Canis lupus]

Whats more surprising: PS360 are flat YOY.

 

[netBuff]

You're wrong. Nintendo have turned things around before. Everyone I've spoken to is extremely happy with their system (except for the lack of games) so it's got good word of mouth.

The Wii U has absolutely terrible word of mouth: I know quite a few people unhappy with their purchase (and I wouldn't call myself all that happy, I certainly won't recommend the Wii U to anyone), and online forums aren't painting a rosy picture on general consumer outlook on the system.

There's nothing wrong with it except the OS which is improving and will be fixed (but currently still allows you to get into games faster than an xbox!)

Speed is probably the least of Wii U's operating system woes. But let's not get ahead of ourselves in terms of performance: From pressing the power button to seeing a game's splash screen, both systems are equally fast - it's accessing anything else that is terrible.

 

[Wickerbasket]

What a compelling, fact-based rebuttal. I stand corrected; you have truly convinced me that Vita is well on the way to overcoming its rough start and will surely soon become a genuine mass-market competitor in the handheld market.

What is there there to say really though? As of right now, the Wii U is doing worse than Vita.

Anything else is speculation. There could be a hit game for Vita or Wii U that makes either console a must have item, but the chances of that are slim.

As for Nintendo relying on their first party titles to push console sales, that's always been the case and the N64 and Gamecube show what kind of sales to expect if that's all they rely on.

 

[kinggroin]

A 2D Mario isn't a "big hitter"?

It's one of Nintendo main guns.

Sure is. Also closely resembles the Wii and 3DS iterations to the point of lacking any substantial wow factor associated with a new platform's horsepower increase. Not to mention series fatigue.

Were you expecting that game to honestly propel the Wii U to Wii like sales through a 4 month drought?

 

[metalslimer]

Sure is. Also closely resembles the Wii and 3DS iterations to the point of lacking any substantial wow factor associated with a new platform's horsepower increase. Not to mention series fatigue.

Were you expecting that game to honestly propel the Wii U to Wii like sales through a 4 month drought?

And are we expecting mario kart to propel the system through the next drought? How big of a chane is mkwiiu goin to be from previous entries when it is probably being rushed to make this year?

Edit: I'm pretty pessimistic about wiiu but its perfectly reasonable to say its in a better position than vita based on time on the market and the level of importance to nintendos business. Of course better position than vita is meaninless considering where vita is headed

 

[Father_Brain]

I don't think a fact-based rebuttal is needed in order to justify a wry smile. You're basically doing exactly what you've spent a year chastising others for doing. Admittedly, the Nintendo titles are likelier to shift units than Killzone or Tearaway, but that doesn't stop the post coming off as quite funny.

Bolded is a pretty big understatement, and that's exactly why there's no hypocrisy here.

If there were any first or third-party franchises coming (or plausibly coming) to Vita with a recent history of being multimillion-sellers on handhelds, I'd be striking a very different tone about its future.

You also seem to be implying that I'm unreasonably optimistic about Wii U, and I'm not sure what about my posts would lead you to that conclusion.

Why would he waste his time when nothing would convince you ?

Actual, good (relative to its current performance) sales figures would convince me.

 

[SmokyDave]

Bolded is a pretty big understatement, and that's exactly why there's no hypocrisy here.

I know man, I'm not trying to drag you across hot coals, I'm just saying it's kinda funny.

If there were any first or third-party franchises coming (or plausibly coming) to Vita with a recent history of being multimillion-sellers on handhelds, I'd be striking a very different tone about its future.

GT & GoW are multi-million sellers on handhelds and are (hopefully) no-brainers for the Vita. If Sony panicked like Nintendo, they might have announced them by now, even if they're a way off. I don't think it'd make any real difference to the overarching narrative though.

Still, people used to say the same about the PS3 and that ended up bouncing back. Nothing is certain at this stage in the game.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

Should have called it Wii 2 then if they were going to go the non marketing route. The Wii U name alone needs tons of marketing dollars spent just to explain what it is.

Incompetence

The New Wii.

Anyways I hope they recover. Competition is good.

 

[yellowjacket25]

No my response was that digital figures for vita in the UK would not be interesting because even i a best case scenario the sales would still be awful and you couldnt extrapolate that info elsewhere. So yes vita is a failure and i dont think seeing how much o a slightly less failure it is would be that interesting. Ps3/360 digital sales would be much more interesting considering they are actually relevant platforms

That's great, so you don't care about anything related to Vita sales because you hate the Vita and you think it's a miserable failure that has no chance of ever being a moderate success. We get that. It is your opinion. However, responding to others who would like to know that kind of information, in a condescending way, just makes you look like a dick with an agenda.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

You should need to stop hating everyone for everything said against Sony, though. :sese

Shouldn´t you be saying that the WiiU is selling great and people are just hating on it?
It´s cute that so called analysis is so one sided that you need to defend him.

 

[metalslimer]

Still, people used to say the same about the PS3 and that ended up bouncing back. Nothing is certain at this stage in the game.

If vita or the wiiu had the same level of 3rd party support befoe the ps even launched i would be more optimistic.

That's great, so you don't care about anything related to Vita sales because you hate the Vita and you think it's a miserable failure that has no chance of ever being a moderate success. We get that. It is your opinion. However, responding to others who would like to know that kind of information, in a condescending way, just makes you look like a dick with an agenda.

You know what you're right. You may think the figures are interesting and i apologize for coming off as condesceding. You are wrong about one thin. I dont hate vita at all. I think its a much better desinged system than the 3ds and hoped it would do well as a region free system. Unlike some people I try to separate my personal preference from sales opinion

 

[madmackem]

The assumption here is that the experience gotten from their games doesn't change much and won't from Wii to Wii U. And it's really not an easy assumption to back up.

While you can say that Nintendo's business shrank from last year to this year to highlight that MS/Sony business didn't shrink, the flipside is that their businesses didn't grow either. Usually, when one company loses market share, the others gain some of that. No one is doubting that the Wii U's launch sucks... cause it does. It's awful. But it's not the end of the road, either.

This isnt just the wii u, nintendo has been dieing in the uk for sometime now. Wii fell off a cliff here quicker than most places, 3DS struggled here more so there anywhere, nintendo is really struggling here and wii u is almost DOA i just cant see how they bring it back it just such a non event more so than anywhere else.

 

[Visualante2]

Still, people used to say the same about the PS3 and that ended up bouncing back. Nothing is certain at this stage in the game.

Sure but how much of Sony's bounce back can be attributed to Blu Ray and RROD? edit. Also as noted there was this sentiment with third parties that PS3 is going to do well eventually and be fertile. That sort of faith doesn't exist on Nintendo hardware.

 

[AranhaHunter]

You're wrong. Nintendo have turned things around before. Everyone I've spoken to is extremely happy with their system (except for the lack of games) so it's got good word of mouth. There's nothing wrong with it except the OS which is improving and will be fixed (but currently still allows you to get into games faster than an xbox!)

It really comes down to: Do Sony or Microsoft have their shit together for Christmas? My gut, going on past launches is it probably isn't going to be that great. Launches never are.

So potentially what we could be getting here is a WiiU (with a fixed OS) and a price cut, going against full price Sony and Microsoft, who may or may not have a decent launch line up. Nintendo will probably have a 3D Mario / Wii sports / Bayonetta out by that point as well, amongst other already released titles like Monster Hunter, Pikmin, Wonderful 101 etc.
not forgetting Pokemon (and those toys) which in Japan at least will boost system sales immensely.

Now if, like most launch titles, the graphics on the ps3 / 360 aren't that much of a leap (people will be comparing games like Watch Dogs) Then the average customer won't be able to tell the difference, and Nintendo's software library could become very attractive, especially if the machine is half the price of the competition.

So, I don't think the odds look that bad in a recession. Given that consoles seem to be on the way out anyway, I think Sony and Microsoft are going to find it very hard to shift units, as they're not 'must have' devices any more.

I think it will reach around 50m worldwide. We just don't know enough about the software schedule. I mean, they still have (potentially) Animal Crossing, Donkey Kong, the Excite series, Star Fox, Sin and Punishment, WarioWare, Metroid, Kirby, Fire Emblem, Kid Icarus, Punch-Out, the Wii series, and Mario spinoffs just to announce. And I think the strength of Nintendo's franchises alone can carry them to 50M (since the market has expanded from the N64/GC eras).

Both of these posts sound like wishful thinking to be honest. Nintendo needs to be a lot more aggressive to reach that 50M goal IMHO.

Mario Kart DS is at 22.57 as of March, 2012 (over 6 years its launch)
Mario Kart 7 is at 7.73 as of December, 2012 (basically one year after the launch). More like 1/3 in just one year.

Got a source? I was looking at wiki's sources numbers and those seem outdated. Still have my doubts if it will reach 1/2 of MK DS' sales, but I'll give you that it looks a lot more likely now. Still a major decline even if it reaches that.

 

[SmokyDave]

If vita or the wiiu had the same level of 3rd party support befoe the ps even launched i would be more optimistic.

Agreed. I don't expect either to bounce back to any real degree of mass-market relevance, I'm just saying it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.