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Ukrainian Conflict - Donetsk Boogaloo

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So with the upcoming Paralympics will we see a more subdued attitude from Russia for the next week? Not that the whole world isn't already watching them...
 
So the last time people of Crimea were polled 71 % wanted to stay in Ukraine (2012). What can we expect now when the area is occupied by Russian troops?

Not that it even matters since we all know the end result and this whole thing is completely against international law and sets a dangerous precedent.
 
ICKE said:
So the last time people of Crimea were polled 71 % wanted to stay in Ukraine (2012). What can we expect now when the area is occupied by Russian troops?

Not that it even matters since we all know the end result. .
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Results would be corrupted but it doesn't mater. Russia expects to pass by next week a new law that changes how Russia annexes new land and people. Instead of the current process which requires the original countries permission to take the land it will be sufficient for a "legitimate" governing body from that region to ask.

Though in the case of Georgia they didn't follow Russia law in their annexing
 
ICKE said:
So the last time people of Crimea were polled 71 % wanted to stay in Ukraine (2012). What can we expect now when the area is occupied by Russian troops?

Not that it even matters since we all know the end result and this whole thing is completely against international law and sets a dangerous precedent.
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But that was before the ouster of Yanukovych and a somewhat Pro-Russian government. Now that Yanukovych and his cronies are somewhat out, and you have a push for Pro-EU, many would understandably be iffy. Even before Russia intervened/invaded, you started to have Pro-Russian groups demand Russia help.

What we can expect is Ukraine will probably no longer have any real control over Crimea, and while it may be against international law, and set a precedent, it's one that has been set before (no whataboutism here, just the truth). When this whole thing blows over, as Russia, Sochi, the anti-gay laws, this invasion and other issues start to leave the minds of people in the West, most won't even remember this Crimea dispute or who administers it. How many even know about Abkhazia or South Ossetia and it's status?

I have to wonder though about the East. All it takes is some yahoos starting something that can lead to a pretext for a larger invasion. I'm sure RT and Russia would dramatize any ethnic Russian death in Crimea or the East to great effect.
 
Madness said:
But that was before the ouster of Yanukovych and a somewhat Pro-Russian government. Now that Yanukovych and his cronies are somewhat out, and you have a push for Pro-EU, many would understandably be iffy. Even before Russia intervened/invaded, you started to have Pro-Russian groups demand Russia help.

What we can expect is Ukraine will probably no longer have any real control over Crimea, and while it may be against international law, and set a precedent, it's one that has been set before (no whataboutism here, just the truth). When this whole thing blows over, as Russia, Sochi, the anti-gay laws, this invasion and other issues start to leave the minds of people in the West, most won't even remember this Crimea dispute or who administers it. How many even know about Abkhazia or South Ossetia and it's status?

I have to wonder though about the East. All it takes is some yahoos starting something that can lead to a pretext for a larger invasion. I'm sure RT and Russia would dramatize any ethnic Russian death in Crimea or the East to great effect.
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A pro Russian government has been kicked out so feelings will change to be more pro Russia?
 
The window for Russia to widen the invasion and take advantage of Ukraine and the international community's disarray has come and gone, the odds for profit grow longer by the day.
 
Madness said:
I have to wonder though about the East. All it takes is some yahoos starting something that can lead to a pretext for a larger invasion. I'm sure RT and Russia would dramatize any ethnic Russian death in Crimea or the East to great effect.
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Exactly, the Baltic states have a reason to worry. And this isn't just about Russia. China is also watching and analyzing how the international community reacts. They have ambitions regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and are building their military in order to increase their sphere of influence in Asia-Pacific.

Right now it seems as if Russia can proceed with annexation.
 
Bo said:
The window for Russia to widen the invasion and take advantage of Ukraine and the international community's disarray has come and gone, the odds for profit grow longer by the day.
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The only odds that are growing are those of Ukraine's bankruptcy. Even with IMF and EU's assistance, they're going to need a lot more than $15b to keep afloat and that's with heavy austerity that the next government will need to implement. Whoever wins next is going to be demolished in the elections after that.
 
Madness said:
But that was before the ouster of Yanukovych and a somewhat Pro-Russian government. Now that Yanukovych and his cronies are somewhat out, and you have a push for Pro-EU, many would understandably be iffy. Even before Russia intervened/invaded, you started to have Pro-Russian groups demand Russia help.

What we can expect is Ukraine will probably no longer have any real control over Crimea, and while it may be against international law, and set a precedent, it's one that has been set before (no whataboutism here, just the truth). When this whole thing blows over, as Russia, Sochi, the anti-gay laws, this invasion and other issues start to leave the minds of people in the West, most won't even remember this Crimea dispute or who administers it. How many even know about Abkhazia or South Ossetia and it's status?

I have to wonder though about the East. All it takes is some yahoos starting something that can lead to a pretext for a larger invasion. I'm sure RT and Russia would dramatize any ethnic Russian death in Crimea or the East to great effect.
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The US might forget it but I'm not so sure people in Europe will. At least as far as our attitude to Russia is concerned. The exact details about Crimea probably won't stick, but the fact that Russia essentially invaded a neighbour to several EU countries will.

I'm from Sweden. We've demobilised our defence forces for decades and this incident made our politicians pretty much turn on a dime. Suddenly both the government and the major opposition party are both talking about rearming the island of Gotland again and the government has talked about increasing the defence budget, despite them slashing it for the last eight years.

This isn't some isolated incident for us. Russia have increased their aggression levels for years. A year ago Russian bombers executed a mock training attack on targets in Sweden which caught our airforce completely by surprise.

6 months ago we learnt that it was probably a mock nuclear attack. And I do stress that Sweden is neutral - we're not a member of NATO, the EU isn't a defence alliance (and Sweden isn't even in the Eurozone) and there are no current conflicts between our governments. But Russia just don't care.
 
ICKE said:
Exactly, the Baltic states have a reason to worry. And this isn't just about Russia. China is also watching and analyzing how the international community reacts. They have ambitions regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and are building their military in order to increase their sphere of influence in Asia-Pacific.

Right now it seems as if Russia can proceed with annexation.
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No, they don't. Russia isn't going to touch any NATO nation.
 
Lagspike_exe said:
The only odds that are growing are those of Ukraine's bankruptcy. Even with IMF and EU's assistance, they're going to need a lot more than $15b to keep afloat and that's with heavy austerity that the next government will need to implement. Whoever wins next is going to be demolished in the elections after that.
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Relevance? I wasn't speaking at all to Ukraine's economic predicament, but to its military predicament. Russia's best chance to smash and grab with their military has passed.
 
Dead Man said:
A pro Russian government has been kicked out so feelings will change to be more pro Russia?
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euromaidan_protestsv3oub.png


Yes? Especially in the regions that voted for said government and somewhat refuse to recognize the new one? Many in the East and South voted overwhelmingly for Yanukovych (whether or not he ran on a moderate platform, as both Pro-EU and Pro-Russia) etc. These areas, while not universal in their desire to leave Ukraine and join Russia, are very Pro-Russian, and share strong ties.

Look at the image above, which supposedly shows the intensity of the Euromaidan protests by area. Somewhat rudimentary, but you can see how many places in the East and South weren't as upset that Yanukovych rejected the EU proposal.

ICKE said:
Exactly, the Baltic states have a reason to worry. And this isn't just about Russia. China is also watching and analyzing how the international community reacts. They have ambitions regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and are building their military in order to increase their sphere of influence in Asia-Pacific.

Right now it seems as if Russia can proceed with annexation.
Click to expand...

I don't think anything will happen to the Baltics, that's a bit of fear mongering. Ukraine is unique to Russia because of its longstanding ties. China is watching intently, especially since it's always had its eye on Taiwan. The invasion of Tibet is now but a distant memory for most people, and most nations on Earth now recognize it as part of China. The difference over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is that those islands are part of Japan currently and have been administered by them for over a century and half. They are mostly uninhabited as well, no pro-chinese population, no naval base etc. China would take great military risk in trying to secure it. But remember, Japan has far more hard and soft power than Ukraine. And Sweden may not be a military power, like ICKE mentioned, but it does have soft power. There is a huge difference in global perception of Sweden than Ukraine. Stockholm has much more say and push in international affairs than Kiev would. And any Russian military action wouldn't be tolerated, even if they aren't part of NATO.
 
Madness said:
I don't think anything will happen to the Baltics, that's a bit of fear mongering. Ukraine is unique to Russia because of its longstanding ties. China is watching intently, especially since it's always had its eye on Taiwan. The invasion of Tibet is now but a distant memory for most people, and most nations on Earth now recognize it as part of China. The difference over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is that those islands are part of Japan currently and have been administered by them for over a century and half. They are mostly uninhabited as well, no pro-chinese population, no naval base etc. China would take great military risk in trying to secure it. But remember, Japan has far more hard and soft power than Ukraine. And Sweden may not be a military power, like ICKE mentioned, but it does have soft power. There is a huge difference in global perception of Sweden than Ukraine. Stockholm has much more say and push in international affairs than Kiev would. And any Russian military action wouldn't be tolerated, even if they aren't part of NATO.
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That depends. There's a scenario that has worried me regarding Sweden during the development in Ukraine: if ever a need for Russia to demonstrate that they aren't intimidated by EU military strength would emerge, or if for any reason they feel like escalating a situation further, a limited air strike on Sweden would be the optimal choice. It wouldn't force NATO to declare war and in a strange way, the fact that Sweden is a respected western country would only increase the impact and the intimidation.

An air strike using air-launched cruise missiles could be carried out from within Russian air space leaving the Swedish air force unable to respond. If Russia chooses the right target they could even avoid killing anyone but the point would be made. In this scenario, what could NATO and the EU do? Invade Russia? We're assuming of course that relations have deteriorated to the point that sanctions are expected and will have little to no effect, if they aren't already in place.

This may sound like something out of Tom Clancy but I'm choosing it precisely because it already has precedence. Russia has practised these attacks, openly even. They did this to prove that they have both the willingness and capability to execute them. Crimea has also shown that Russia is willing to act militarily against a neutral nation, even one bordering NATO countries, and care little about the international outcry. Soft power only gets you so far - especially if that soft power is used against you.
 
Madness said:
I don't think anything will happen to the Baltics, that's a bit of fear mongering. .
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Kabouter said:
No, they don't. Russia isn't going to touch any NATO nation.
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Russia is constantly harassing said nations. This takes many forms such as violating their air space "accidentally", disrupting trade and energy supply, cyber attacks to their banking system and other critical electronic infrastructure (just look at what happened in Estonia few years ago).
 
Nivash said:
That depends. There's a scenario that has worried me regarding Sweden during the development in Ukraine: if ever a need for Russia to demonstrate that they aren't intimidated by EU military strength would emerge, or if for any reason they feel like escalating a situation further, a limited air strike on Sweden would be the optimal choice. It wouldn't force NATO to declare war and in a strange way, the fact that Sweden is a respected western country would only increase the impact and the intimidation.

An air strike using air-launched cruise missiles could be carried out from within Russian air space leaving the Swedish air force unable to respond. If Russia chooses the right target they could even avoid killing anyone but the point would be made. In this scenario, what could NATO and the EU do? Invade Russia? We're assuming of course that relations have deteriorated to the point that sanctions are expected and will have little to no effect, if they aren't already in place.

This may sound like something out of Tom Clancy but I'm choosing it precisely because it already has precedence. Russia has practised these attacks, openly even. They did this to prove that they have both the willingness and capability to execute them. Crimea has also shown that Russia is willing to act militarily against a neutral nation, even one bordering NATO countries, and care little about the international outcry. Soft power only gets you so far - especially if that soft power is used against you.
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No, just most of NATO.

The Treaty of Lisbon strengthens the solidarity of the Member States in dealing with external threats by introducing a mutual defence clause (Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union (TEU)). This clause provides that if a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter on self-defence.

This obligation of mutual defence is binding on all Member States. However, it does not affect the neutrality of certain Member States or Member States’ membership of NATO.

This provision is supplemented by the solidarity clause (Article 222 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (TFEU)) which provides that Member States are obliged to act jointly where a Member State is the victim of a terrorist attack or a natural or man-made disaster.
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ICKE said:
Russia is constantly harassing said nations. This takes many forms such as violating their air space "accidentally", disrupting trade and energy supply, cyber attacks to their banking system and other critical electronic infrastructure (just look at what happened in Estonia few years ago).
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Intimidation and direct aggression are two very different things. The Baltic states have nothing that Russia would risk going to war over with the United States and the rest of NATO. As Madness said, this is just fear mongering.
 
Kabouter said:
No, just most of NATO.

Intimidation and direct aggression are two very different things. The Baltic states have nothing that Russia would risk going to war over with the United States and the rest of NATO. As Madness said, this is just fear mongering.
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They are one and the same when Russia has the ability to completely disrupt their economy - especially during cold months - thus forcing them capitulate in some form or another.

What do you call a cyber attack that targets the parliament, the banking sector and other critical institutions if not an act of aggression?
 
ICKE said:
They are one and the same when Russia has the ability to completely disrupt their economy - especially during cold months - thus forcing them capitulate in some form or another.
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They really aren't the same. Espionage and similar activities, of which cyber attacks are a modern variant, rarely lead to war, and I'm glad they don't, because the Cold War would have ended a lot less pleasantly if nations had taken them to be direct acts of war and acted accordingly.

What do you call a cyber attack that targets the parliament, the banking sector and other critical institutions if not an act of aggression?
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The limit of what Russia can do with regard to those nations.
 
Kabouter said:
Intimidation and direct aggression are two very different things. The Baltic states have nothing that Russia would risk going to war over with the United States and the rest of NATO. As Madness said, this is just fear mongering.
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But Crimea doesn't have anything either that Russia would want...

EDIT: Well maybe they want their fleet parked there for free... Is that worth it?!
 
Resident_UA said:
But Crimea doesn't have anything either that Russia would want...

EDIT: Well maybe they want their fleet parked there for free... Is that worth it?!
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No, but since Ukraine is neither a member of the EU nor a member of NATO, the risks involved are strikingly different as compared to the Baltic states which are members of both.
 
5 lessons for a new Cold War

With heavily armed Russian-speaking troops patrolling the streets, the Crimean Parliament voted Thursday to join Russia and put its decision to a referendum. The all-but-inevitable annexation of Crimea is moving forward, despite protests, warnings and threats from the U.S. and its allies.

We have entered a new Cold War.

The clash between Vladimir Putin's Russia and the forces arrayed in support of Ukraine's independence-minded leaders has crashed the vaunted "reset," ending hopes that Moscow and the West would smooth relations and work hand-in-hand toward common objectives.

Nobody can predict with certainty how this conflict will end. But the world can already glean important lessons. Unfortunately, most of those lessons are cause for deep concern. Here are five clear messages from the crisis in Ukraine.
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1. Nobody's scared of America, but American and European values hold strong appeal.

2. You don't mess with Putin without paying a price.

3. If you are a vulnerable state, you may regret surrendering nuclear weapons.

4. Don't expect support from all international peace activists (unless the U.S. invades).

5. The use of brute force to resolve conflicts is not a thing of the past.
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The entire CNN opinion piece here:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/06/opinion/ghitis-new-cold-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
 
Partial Gamification said:
Brookings will host a discussion on the crisis in Ukraine, looking at where the crisis might go next and how the U.S. and Europe might respond to and defuse the standoff between Ukraine and Russia.

March 7, 2014
2:00 PM - 3:30 PM EST
source
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This presentation will begin shortly.
Its interesting to note, "CANCELLED - How Might U.S. Defense Policy Change in the Years Ahead[?] (3 March)."

There is a lot of talk about geopolitical pivoting in light of the Ukraine crisis.
 
5. The use of brute force to resolve conflicts is not a thing of the past.

I would call that supression. Ideally you resolve a problem with you brain and common concencus which can sometimes follow da bangbangpewpew or forgo filling the pockets of death mercheants and talk it out without depopulating large areas. Not an ideal world tho.
 
CHEEZMO™;103522280 said:
Also the Russians have just stormed a military base. Doesn't seem like any shots were fired though.
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Apparently Russia was forced to pull back because of the cossacks screwing things up.

Multiple Reporters including a Reporter from Russia are apparently badly beaten and the attack by the militia on the press forced the Russians to fall back when they were discussing terms with the Ukrainians. So Putin whipping the old folks into a frenzy is beginning to show it was a bad idea.
 
antonz said:
Apparently Russia was forced to pull back because of the cossacks screwing things up.

Multiple Reporters including a Reporter from Russia are apparently badly beaten and the attack by the militia on the press forced the Russians to fall back when they were discussing terms with the Ukrainians. So Putin whipping the old folks into a frenzy is beginning to show it was a bad idea.
Click to expand...

Here's the problem with getting the Crimea. It sounds like nobody actually want the people in the area.
 
“Where they have burned books, they will end in burning human beings.”
― Heinrich Heine


I wonder how long till Putin has his Maidan right in front of his palace.
 
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