Lagspike_exe
Member
Could your explain your position more deeply?
Also:
http://rbth.co.uk/news/2014/03/03/c...rom_ukrainian_air_bases_-_official_34740.html
Seems like Ukraine military hierarchy is rapidly collapsing.
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Ukrainian Conflict - Donetsk Boogaloo
- Thread starter Salvadora
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Could your explain your position more deeply?
Also:
http://rbth.co.uk/news/2014/03/03/c...rom_ukrainian_air_bases_-_official_34740.html
Seems like Ukraine military hierarchy is rapidly collapsing.
"Who's gonna check me, boo?"
Heh.I live in Gothenburg, Sweden. Just a few minutes ago my internet went down, the air raid sirens started blaring and the only thing you could hear above them was the engine sounds of several helicopters.
Of course the internet was just acting up for a few seconds, the air raid sirens are always tested this time of year (and use a special test sequence, not that I know that one by heart) and the helicopters were just an ambulance helicopter heading to the nearby hospital and a police helicopter doing whatever.
Still, it got creepy for a second. I haven't been able to get any updates since last night and just for a moment, I couldn't help but think "what if something happened, and I just didn't know yet".
Of course the internet was just acting up for a few seconds, the air raid sirens are always tested this time of year (and use a special test sequence, not that I know that one by heart) and the helicopters were just an ambulance helicopter heading to the nearby hospital and a police helicopter doing whatever.
Still, it got creepy for a second. I haven't been able to get any updates since last night and just for a moment, I couldn't help but think "what if something happened, and I just didn't know yet".
maquiladora
Member
Russian helicopter gunships and transports flying low to avoid radar over the Black Sea from a Russian base towards Ukraine.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXf0Xb0_CkE&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXf0Xb0_CkE&feature=youtu.be
It seems really obvious to me but ok : Russia is not the US, Ukraine is not afghanistan, Russia's allies are not the US' allies, the USA didn't invade a friendly neighbour country with deep ties and strategic interest connected to Europe, they were not annexing territory, the US economy is not based on exporting raw materials, and so on so forth
The two situations are literaly nothing alike.
Agreed.
Sigmar Gabriel (vice-chancellor & Minister of Economics and Energy) will visit russia at the end of the week and germany will not cancel the G8. business as usual
Lagspike_exe
Member
And this all changes things how? Russian economy will not perish because of the potential conflict with Ukraine. What difference does it make what you export? Do you think someone will stop buying Russia's gas because of the conflict with Ukraine? And in reality it would not be a Russia vs. Ukraine. It would be more likely West Ukraine vs. East Ukraine and Russia, which is conflict heavily tilted towards Russian side from the beginning.
Politically speaking, Russia would be anexing a region they "gifted" Ukraine 50 years ago, which was historically Russian for hundreds of years. US invaded Iraq on blatantly false evidence and destroyed an entire country in the process. And I haven't seen that its diplomatic standing with its allies has been damaged by its acts.
Psychotext
Member
I imagine every troop stationed in Crimea will eventually surrender / defect. It's pretty meaningless.
If we start seeing divisions in the rest of Ukraine doing the same then it'll be another story.
I already said Russia would get over transforming CRIMEA into another "autonomous region". They'll take a hit and lose the rest of Ukraine, but things would smooth over.
The germans won't stop buying russian gas over the current conflict, they will clearly do it if Russia invades a sovereign european nation in a blatant land-grab.
As for the US, it's because the US actually has allies, Russia doesn't.
edit : I meant crimea in my first sentence obviously, it makes absolutely no sense otherwise
China will happily back Russia.
Yeah, the key quote from that article was ""The Belbek airfield has 45 Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters and four L-39 trainer aircraft. Of them, only four fighters and one trainer are in good condition," the official said."
Basically that either means that the airfield was a glorified air plane graveyard or maintenance facility or the Ukrainian air force has already pulled out with everything that can fly on its own. Same thing about the navy base in Crimea, the Ukrainian Navy pulled out everything they could but a few of the ships were forced to return because they simply weren't seaworthy.
I strongly doubt most of these reports of "defections". The remaining Ukrainian servicemen in Crimea have clearly been put under great pressure to sign resignation letters - having your base surrounded by hostile troops with superior fire power will do that to you. Russian propaganda wants us to think that those soldiers are ready to take up arms against their former brothers in arms in the Ukrainian army but that's really a stretch. I'm sure a few of them might be able to, but not the thousands the Crimean regime claims.
EDIT: None of that really matters anyway. At this point the Ukrainian military command are considering whatever forces they had left in Crimea to be combat ineffective.
No, they clearly won't. They HATE foreign interference, and Russia is shitting all over their common strategy of blocking western interventionism whenever possible.
What China will gladly do, is not make too much of a fuss about it and buy (some) russian ressources at a greatly reduced price once they've become their sole major client.
Lagspike_exe
Member
So, how do you call CSTO then? Those aren't allies?
And you're wrong about Germany refusing to buy Russian gas in case of a wider conflict. They're very clearly manouvering away from this conflict in order not to jepordaize their trading links with Russia. In the present geopolitical context, Ukraine is completely irrelevant to them.
They won't. The only thing to do is interrupt and say how country X shouldn't be saying something about country Y. They won't be as stupid as to intervene considering their strong economical ties to the West and a population that might react not too kindly should their economy be impacted by problems with the US/EU.
cyberheater
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I don't know but if you say to a sovereign nation "Get rid of your nukes and we promise to protect you" and then another nation does attack that sovereign nation and you sort of stand around looking at your feet with your hands in your pockets whilst saying in a small voice "Please don't do that guys". Well, it's simply not enough.
Moral Panic
Member
As long as no shots are fired and no one is killed, the situation can be resolved. I'm pretty sure that's the current thinking of everyone here. No one wants to be the one to fire the first shot, or provoke the first shot going off, so even if Russian troops stay in Crimea for a year or 2, as long as people aren't getting killed, this situation will be viewed as a minor inconvenience at best. Some of the military in the area are defecting, so that even means a small possibility of civil war if someone starts to force the issue.
As an extremely export heavy economy China won't have any part in any of this.
I call CSTO a collection of weak client states. They certainly aren't going to do much for Russia is the rest of the world starts shunning them.
Germany are not getting involved right now, but they will if Russia forces them to by stomping over every piece of internatonal agreement since the cold war. They won't have a choice really because the european union as a whole will start imposing sanctions.
Zuhzuhzombie!!
Member
Lagspike_exe
Member
No, they won't. Because they can't substitute the gas EU needs. No EU politician will ever formulate a policy even resembling what you're talking about. And considering Germany and Italy will not get involved because of thr North/South Stream, the entire EU will get paralysed as a result and won't be able to do anything. And that's without over 100b in EU export of goods and services to Russia.
cyberheater
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No and I understand your point but at the end of the day. If you are in the armed forces, you are there to carry out the orders of your country. If they have a legitimate requirement for military force to honour a commitment of protection then so be it.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
China will back China.
Zuhzuhzombie!!
Member
One of the countries that "promised" to "protect" the Ukraine was Russia.
Nope, they have borders disputes going on since the 60's
you are right of course, I only was questioning how far we would be willing to go not to get into the third world war. I think very far, unimaginably far, fortunately for the world, unfortunately for every threatened country.
I'm not saying the EU won't suffer, but you expect them to do nothing when Russia rolls through (actually they won't even roll through, it will be really bloody) a sovereign state with deep ties to the UE and massive borders with Poland and Romania, just to annex territory? This is pure fantasy.
Even during the cold war, The USSR at least had some pretext to invade Afghanistan or easterns state, they were called by the local government or some bullshit like that. It's already too late to organize something like this outside of Crimea, it would be a pure war of aggression.
I ndon't even know why I'm arguing this, Russia is obviously not going to go this far.
Sirpopopop
Member
Haha. No.
If you want to drive China further into western arms, you keep on functioning as a mavericky neighbor.
border disputes?
border dispute!
border disputes!!
Whata thought!
Although they won't proactively engage with it, but behind the scenes, china is 100% with Russia on Ukraine.
Who don't the Chinese have border disputes with lol.
interesting bit from that tribune article;
Niu Jun, a professor of international affairs at Peking University, said China wanted to maintain its relationship with Russia yet had strong concerns about foreign intervention.#
Its all very inconvenient, he said. Thats why they came out with a statement nobody can understand.
What this statement is really saying is, what Russia did was not right and China does not want to support this military invasion. But China also wants to support Russia, so it came up with excuses such as Russias history with Crimea and Ukraines internal situation, he said.
Yet at the same time they realise this excuse doesnt hold water, so they also threw in a mention of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Niu Jun, a professor of international affairs at Peking University, said China wanted to maintain its relationship with Russia yet had strong concerns about foreign intervention.#
Its all very inconvenient, he said. Thats why they came out with a statement nobody can understand.
What this statement is really saying is, what Russia did was not right and China does not want to support this military invasion. But China also wants to support Russia, so it came up with excuses such as Russias history with Crimea and Ukraines internal situation, he said.
Yet at the same time they realise this excuse doesnt hold water, so they also threw in a mention of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Zuhzuhzombie!!
Member
China and Russia have had issues with border regions for the past 60 years. It was one of the biggest factors in the fallout between Mao and Khrushchev.
cyberheater
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Which makes the current events even more shocking. It's like having the local police burgling your home.
I think the rest of the world will exhaust every single avenue and then turn a blind eye rather then direct military action against the Russian Federation.
The thing is as follows:
Yanukovych and the opposition both signed a contract before the opposition decided to shit on this contract and thus, simply by international laws, Yanukovych is still the legitimate president of the Ukraine. Even in exile he is allowed to ask Putin for help in regards of Crimea which was until now an autonomous area and now asked to be independent from the Ukraine. This independency request needs to be agreed by the president... which is still Yanukovych - and he agreed. So Russia has a "justification" for this actions. The problem is, that the EU should have pushed the opposition to follow their own rules written down in said contract.
Yanukovych and the opposition both signed a contract before the opposition decided to shit on this contract and thus, simply by international laws, Yanukovych is still the legitimate president of the Ukraine. Even in exile he is allowed to ask Putin for help in regards of Crimea which was until now an autonomous area and now asked to be independent from the Ukraine. This independency request needs to be agreed by the president... which is still Yanukovych - and he agreed. So Russia has a "justification" for this actions. The problem is, that the EU should have pushed the opposition to follow their own rules written down in said contract.
Wonder if China is gonna support complete autonomy for the Uyghurs as well?
Yes, the law over the people! (well, except for the kleptocrats obviously)
God save the fascist regime! It was a necessary evil to kill your countrymen with snipers!
Yes, the law over the people! (well, except for the kleptocrats obviously)
God save the fascist regime! It was a necessary evil to kill your countrymen with snipers!
Zuhzuhzombie!!
Member
There's nothing really shocking about these events at all. At least from my POV, as an American.
maquiladora
Member
You really have to feel for these guys. The Ukrainian military has never as much as raised a finger in anger against Russia, they have even restrained themselves from firing a single shot while Russia invaded, and now being threatened with facing a 'storm' from the worlds largest nation which only a few years ago signed an agreement pledging to protect and respect their independence and sovereignty.
Ravensmash
Member
Be very interesting to see how the world reacts if Russia do unleash said 'storm'.
This is pretty scary.
This is pretty scary.
I really hope they don't, that's barbaric and uncalled for, not to mention scary.
cyberheater
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Things are coming to a head.
That depends on whether the reports of pro-Russian protestors taking over Odessa are true, and if these pro-Russian protestors are really Russian forward troops as seemed to be the case in Crimea.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Welp.
It wasn't intention to whitewash this actions in any form. I would've also shitted on that contract in their position but the thing is that the EU now shouldn't act that surprised by what happened.
I doubt they will, they're just trying to get complete 'voluntary' control over Crimea to legitimize their takeover, or at the least antagonize them enough that they start shooting first (like in Georgia). The Ukranian navy should do absolutely nothing. The party that shoots first loses, basically.
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