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United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected

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GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Supporters of U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) listen to the news that Barack Obama was projected to defeat Mitt Romney in Ohio during a rally for Bachmann in Bloomington, Minn., on Tuesday, Nov. 6

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A supporter of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney sits alone on the floor at Romney’s headquarters in Boston on Tuesday, Nov. 6.

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JoAnn Hell, of Minneapolis, celebrates an early return from Virginia for Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney, left photo, and then reacts for a early projection for President Obama in Pennsylvania, right photo, at the Minnesota Republican election night headquarters, Tuesday, Nov. 6, in Bloomington, Minn

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Bloomington isn't even in Bachmann's district. Wtf

I'm 3-5 miles away from bloomington. Her district is about about 30 miles north.
 

border

Member
Hahahaha. Wow. We have gone off the deep end. Lets face it, if Hillary runs it's over. 3 terms dem. I'm not even slightly concerned on this, it will be glorious.

I looked it up myself, and Hillary will be nearly 70 years old in 2016. That does seem pretty old for a Presidential run.

Regan and Bush were in their mid-to-late 60's when they were inaugurated, but almost everyone else in the last century was under 60. Most were under 55-56, even.
 
I looked it up myself, and Hillary will be nearly 70 years old in 2016. That does seem pretty old for a Presidential run.

Yep. Hilldawg is going to be senile by the end of her second term. She deserves to be the first female US president, but her heart doesn't seem to be in it anymore.
 

AniHawk

Member
I looked it up myself, and Hillary will be nearly 70 years old in 2016. That does seem pretty old for a Presidential run.

Regan and Bush were in their mid-to-late 60's when they were inaugurated, but almost everyone else in the last century was under 60. Most were under 55-56, even.

reagan was older than clinton would be when he was first inaugurated.
 

border

Member
reagan was older than clinton would be when he was first inaugurated.

Different times though, and people are likely to look less favorably on an aged elder stateswoman in 2016 than they did on an aged elder statesman in 1980. Not to mention that Carter was pretty weak competition.

It's not impossible or anything, but it increases the chances that she may be upstaged by a younger and more vibrant candidate in the primaries (as with Obama in 2008).
 

lednerg

Member
Reagan was born February 6, 1911, and was president on January 20, 1981. That's a couple weeks before he was 70 years old.

Hillary was born October 26, 1947, and would assume office on January 20, 2016. That's would make her 68 years and a couple months old.
 

border

Member
Hillary was born October 26, 1947, and would assume office on January 20, 2016. That's would make her 68 years and a couple months old.

The inauguration date for Hilary would be in January 2017, would it not?

It's kinda splitting hairs to talk about whether she would be 68 or 69, but it's pretty old either way. Men tend to age more gracefully, so that's why I don't put as much stock in Reagan's age of inauguration. If the field stays open she's a lock for the Democratic nomination, but who knows what can happen between now and then? Most of the people that were hot Republican presidential hopefuls in 2008 have receded into the background. I think even Obama ruled out a presidential run after being elected to the Senate in 2004.....so there's no saying who else might or might not be in play 3 years from now.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Reagan was born February 6, 1911, and was president on January 20, 1981. That's a couple weeks before he was 70 years old.

Hillary was born October 26, 1947, and would assume office on January 20, 2016. That's would make her 68 years and a couple months old.

2017 not 2016.
 

Timedog

good credit (by proxy)
Bloomington isn't even in Bachmann's district. Wtf

I'm 3-5 miles away from bloomington. Her district is about about 30 miles north.

I saw those pics and immediately thought the exact same thing about department stores and distances. Neither of them really make sense, even in the abstract. Uncanny.
 

watershed

Banned
She has aged in the past 4 years, more than Obama. Compare her from her primary run to now.


Might be the hair though.

She has aged, gained weight, and the hair doesn't help. But she's also no longer a candidate meaning she no longer has a team of people working on her appearance daily, deciding what make up, hair style, and dress work best to make her young-sh/appealing. If she were to run in 2016 I bet she'd look younger/fitter and more energetic than she does now.
 
I'm confused when people say the stock market has nothing to do with the economy? I mean, people are losing some of the their savings, and if a company's worth plummets, does that not effect the company?
 
I'm confused when people say the stock market has nothing to do with the economy? I mean, people are losing some of the their savings, and if a company's worth plummets, does that not effect the company?

It's absurdly oversimplified to say the market has nothing to do with the economy, but a strong stock market does not necessarily indicate a strong economy, or vice versa.
 

Mii

Banned
I'm confused when people say the stock market has nothing to do with the economy? I mean, people are losing some of the their savings, and if a company's worth plummets, does that not effect the company?

It is not as direct a connection as you are thinking.

I have a set of assets.



Lets say I own whatever improvements I made on the property I lease. I also own books that I had created by using a 3rd party printing company. I plan to sell them for more than they cost to have printed.

I own the materials in the book as I had them researched; I only told the printing company to print my research. I have some ownership over the content in the book, but I don't really have an assigned value to it. I could feasibly imagine a value based off of how much it cost to pay workers to research the content, but that is all very judgmental. Because of this, I don't really record the research I do as an asset; I only count it as an expense I previously had some time ago.

I have loans outstanding with a bank that I used to acquire the cash to pay for the lease improvements I mentioned above, as well as the books (inventory) and employee salaries (compensation) I mentioned above.

I also some years ago issued common stock in my Company. You came to an assessment of how much my company was worth based off of what I promised you in dividends, as well as what you thought I could do when reinvesting the money I borrowed and got from you over and over. I promised you growth, dividends, and a return for essentially taking your money from you.

Now I have used your money, as well as the money I made from buying and then selling books, to buy and sell more books. I did research with the money you gave me that is now worth something, but isn't strictly an 'asset'. (if someone were to purchase my company or purchase the right to use my research, suddenly it would have a value to the purchaser). Therefore, my company is worth some value greater than strictly just its assets. However, whatever that value is doesn't impact how I function. You can come to whatever determination you want. If you sold that share in my company to someone else, it could be for a higher or lower value. That sale of that share doesn't impact me on a day to day basis typically. The money from you selling the share doesn't come to me. It goes between you and hte person you sell it to. I got your money long ago when you purchased the share initially from me (an initial public offering).

The sale of that share is meant to reflect reality; you decided based off of my future potential for growth and dividends, and the level of riskiness of my business, whether the value of your share has increased or decreased. The person looking to buy the share has done this same analysis. You come to a consensus on what the value is, and it has nothing to do with my day to day operations.

Also, equities are meant to represent future potential more than historical factors. It is the investment community's view of how the company will perform in the future.

Now there are small reasons why what I state isn't 100% true (treasury shares, debt covenants, later public offerings, etc), but ultimately the above is more important to understand.

We also can get into the difference between a good company and a good equity, but that also isn't worth digging into.
 

Novid

Banned
Aside from that David Simon blog this is the best post-election piece I've read; Frank Rich on the alternate GOP reality that led to their downfall.

http://nymag.com/news/frank-rich/gop-denial-2012-11/

Really interesting to see the schism now developing on the right. Many still living in fantasyland, in denial, looking to blame everything except their party's diminishing appeal in a changing America. Others realizing that a change in attitude is desperately needed to avoid political extinction. Very telling to see Boehner basically disowning the Tea Party and actually talking about bipartisan cooperation this week, and even Hannity suddenly has developed a more "evolved" position on immigration.

You know the scary thing is Whitta? Rand was an anti-statist and against Religion. The fact that the GOP uses her words and PERVRTED it connecting it with Religion makes that whole rotting group into something that reaches a point of a demonic cult. I have no love for many liberal polices, but the GOP being anywhere close to a social or fisical conservitism is a god forsaken sham.
 

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
the Blaze has an article chronicling the biggest Democratic party freakouts post the 2004 election
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/sta...eak-outs-from-bushs-2004-re-election-victory/

it doesn't help their cause.
Wow, I just saw this.

This is really the "look, both sides freak out when this happens" article? And from a site as absolutely cock-eyed as Glenn Beck's The Blaze?

Holy crap. Thank you for reaffirming everything I believed about the unequal nature of the two parties.
 
I was trying to come up with something intelligent to add to that map, but I'm at a loss.

The most interesting things I gather from that map:

a)Lots and lots of deep blues

and

b) There are very few deep reds there....
 

HylianTom

Banned
Every time I see that rock-solid blue dot below Lake Pontchartrain in southeast Louisiana, it makes me smile proudly, thankful that I live here on this island (both literal and figurative) of liberal sanity.

The demographics of this city have been changing over the past decade since the storm. Plainly stated, it's getting whiter, and at a rapid rate, as we're the fastest-growing city in the country. Part of me was expecting - from a purely mathematical stance - to see that little blue dot get a bit more purple-ish over the past two electoral cycles. White people vote more Republican, right?

But we didn't get more purple-ish. Still a lovely, deep blue. Still lots of really happy, smiling faces on the day after Election Day.

Whenever he and Mom come into town to visit, Dad likes to shake his head at all of the new folks who've moved into town, many of them moving into houses in or near their old childhood neighborhood. "Damn liberal do-gooders," he calls them.

In this case, I'm kinda relieved that he's right. I'm glad that this place has become a liberal mecca for the region.
 

Novid

Banned
I stated this on the PolGaf before I got interrupted by the Not Truly Blu-Ray Ninty talk:

"I wonder if the reason why the GOP succeeded before, and why is failing now - is because we have 48% of the country who wishes they were Vice Cops and elect leaders that act like the local Vice Cop? Im reminded of the snooper episode of the Simpsons a while back. Its almost sad that Conservitism has gone down this road. "
 

Seguin

Banned
I was trying to come up with something intelligent to add to that map, but I'm at a loss.

The most interesting things I gather from that map:

a)Lots and lots of deep blues

and

b) There are very few deep reds there....

Not really that interesting...Romney still slayed in a lot of states. The darkness has to do with population density.
 

mattiewheels

And then the LORD David Bowie saith to his Son, Jonny Depp: 'Go, and spread my image amongst the cosmos. For every living thing is in anguish and only the LIGHT shall give them reprieve.'
There's a fantastic article in the newest New Yorker about how Texas has the potential to turn blue in the next 6 to 8 years, and what Texas conservatives are trying to do about it (numerous Hispanics running for the GOP, adapting their immigration views).

They should be worried, if Texas goes the way of California they'll never elect another republican president again.
 

HylianTom

Banned
There's a fantastic article in the newest New Yorker about how Texas has the potential to turn blue in the next 6 to 8 years, and what Texas conservatives are trying to do about it (numerous Hispanics running for the GOP, adapting their immigration views).

They should be worried, if Texas goes the way of California they'll never elect another republican president again.

The electoral map is just going to get more and more dire for Republicans as time goes on. The Dems are going to start with a likely 253EVs every single time. They'd only need 17EVs out of Florida/North Carolina/Virginia/New Hampshire/Ohio/Iowa/Colorado, while the GOP would have to essentially run the table.

I think the meltdowns seen this year would look trivial if the Dems were to win in similar fashion in 2016. A lot of GOP members are still thinking that they can do some minor tweaks and then resume winning.

Add Texas to the mix, and the GOP would essentially be confined to being a congressional party. The Dems would have the presidency and the judiciary.

Even without Texas, the future is going to be a fascinating one.
 

TheNatural

My Member!
In other words: live in a city and actually interact with other people and go to school, blue

Live in the sticks and do nothing but worry about hunting and fishing, red
 

Novid

Banned
The electoral map is just going to get more and more dire for Republicans as time goes on. The Dems are going to start with a likely 253EVs every single time. They'd only need 17EVs out of Florida/North Carolina/Virginia/New Hampshire/Ohio/Iowa/Colorado, while the GOP would have to essentially run the table.

I think the meltdowns seen this year would look trivial if the Dems were to win in similar fashion in 2016. A lot of GOP members are still thinking that they can do some minor tweaks and then resume winning.

Add Texas to the mix, and the GOP would essentially be confined to being a congressional party. The Dems would have the presidency and the judiciary.

Even without Texas, the future is going to be a fascinating one.

GOP going to pull out more gerrymandering but even then a 253 start up is crazy for any party.
 
Brutal.

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/nov/09/what-romney-lost/

Many losing candidates became elder statesmen of their parties. What lessons will Romney have to teach his party? The art of crawling uselessly? How to contemn 47 percent of Americans less privileged and beautiful than his family? How to repudiate the past while damaging the future? It is said that he will write a book. Really? Does he want to relive a five-year-long experience of degradation? What can be worse than to sell your soul and find it not valuable enough to get anything for it? His friends can only hope he is too morally obtuse to realize that crushing truth. Losing elections is one thing. But the greater loss, the real loss, is the loss of honor.
 

mattiewheels

And then the LORD David Bowie saith to his Son, Jonny Depp: 'Go, and spread my image amongst the cosmos. For every living thing is in anguish and only the LIGHT shall give them reprieve.'
The electoral map is just going to get more and more dire for Republicans as time goes on. The Dems are going to start with a likely 253EVs every single time. They'd only need 17EVs out of Florida/North Carolina/Virginia/New Hampshire/Ohio/Iowa/Colorado, while the GOP would have to essentially run the table.

I think the meltdowns seen this year would look trivial if the Dems were to win in similar fashion in 2016. A lot of GOP members are still thinking that they can do some minor tweaks and then resume winning.

Add Texas to the mix, and the GOP would essentially be confined to being a congressional party. The Dems would have the presidency and the judiciary.

Even without Texas, the future is going to be a fascinating one.
A good quote from the article is the conservative statistician saying that the GOP could possibly become marginalized like the Whigs, something you tell stories to your grandchildren about. This guy's obviously the extreme view, but if Texas goes blue like California next decade, he could be onto something...
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
A good quote from the article is the conservative statistician saying that the GOP could possibly become marginalized like the Whigs, something you tell stories to your grandchildren about. This guy's obviously the extreme view, but if Texas goes blue like California next decade, he could be onto something...

If Texas goes blue and the republicans get nothing in return it's over for them. It probably won't happen though, at some point in the next few years someone will come along and fix their problems.
 

RDreamer

Member
Romney beat Obama by like 15 points in Texas. It's not going blue any time soon. Only way that happens is if one of the Castros runs for Governor, wins, and then runs for president. Other than that I just don't see it happening for a long while.
 

dabig2

Member
A good quote from the article is the conservative statistician saying that the GOP could possibly become marginalized like the Whigs, something you tell stories to your grandchildren about. This guy's obviously the extreme view, but if Texas goes blue like California next decade, he could be onto something...

Republicans better thank God every day that the 2010 elections happened in a non-Presidential election or else they would be well on their way to Whig status already after 2012.

Gerrymandering the hell out of their congressional districts means they retain some modicum of power in the House and state governments until 2020 - which would be a presidential election year. If they're still the same party by that time, then Whig status will be achieved then and thereafter.
 

Evolved1

make sure the pudding isn't too soggy but that just ruins everything
There's a fantastic article in the newest New Yorker about how Texas has the potential to turn blue in the next 6 to 8 years, and what Texas conservatives are trying to do about it (numerous Hispanics running for the GOP, adapting their immigration views).

They should be worried, if Texas goes the way of California they'll never elect another republican president again.

They have a republican already... but maybe we'll finally have a chance to elect a liberal.
 

mattiewheels

And then the LORD David Bowie saith to his Son, Jonny Depp: 'Go, and spread my image amongst the cosmos. For every living thing is in anguish and only the LIGHT shall give them reprieve.'
Romney beat Obama by like 15 points in Texas. It's not going blue any time soon. Only way that happens is if one of the Castros runs for Governor, wins, and then runs for president. Other than that I just don't see it happening for a long while.
The emphasis in that article was heavy on the fact that the TX Hispanic pop will explode past whites in the near future... but if the GOP can distance itself from the fringe and get someone like Jeb who knows how to speak to them, they'll probably be okay.
 
The electoral map is just going to get more and more dire for Republicans as time goes on. The Dems are going to start with a likely 253EVs every single time. They'd only need 17EVs out of Florida/North Carolina/Virginia/New Hampshire/Ohio/Iowa/Colorado, while the GOP would have to essentially run the table.

I think the meltdowns seen this year would look trivial if the Dems were to win in similar fashion in 2016. A lot of GOP members are still thinking that they can do some minor tweaks and then resume winning.

Add Texas to the mix, and the GOP would essentially be confined to being a congressional party. The Dems would have the presidency and the judiciary.

Even without Texas, the future is going to be a fascinating one.


How prominent is the evangelical movement in the GOP? Media and pundits seem to downplay their importance, but I do think that they were one of the reasons why Bush was re-elected in 2004.

I find their agenda to be repugnant, and have a hard time believing that republicans themselves would follow their regressive policies.

With the fallout of this past election behind us, with Obama re-elected, and Akin and Mourdock defeated, it seems evident that the public too finds their agenda distasteful enough to reject them flat out when directly confronted with the possibility of being re-elected.

The GOP big wigs seem to try to downplay the importance of the religious right, but their GOTV efforts seem to target them more explicitly than their fiscally oriented ones.

So which is it? Is the religious right a paper tiger like all of the pundits make them out to be, or is it strategic stonewalling used to allay potential fear of swing voters who would be turned off by Todd Akin and his legitimate rape bullshit?
 
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