E-Cat
Member
The current consoles, at the time of launch, were around 4-5 years behind bleeding edge single-GPU performance.
Extrapolating from this, if the next batch of consoles is to be launched around 2020, it is not at all unreasonable to expect them to match GPUs from 2015 or 2016. That, plus new arch bells and whistles from the late teens.
I'm really hoping for a 2016 level of performance, because that's when we'll _finally_ get a node shrink from 28nm --> 14nm and exceed the 10 TFLOPS barrier. By that time, it will have been four years--instead of the regular two--without a new lithography process, deriving all the perf gains since early 2012 not from Moore's Law, but architectural improvements and bigger die sizes alone. Madness! And totally unprecedented.
Extrapolating from this, if the next batch of consoles is to be launched around 2020, it is not at all unreasonable to expect them to match GPUs from 2015 or 2016. That, plus new arch bells and whistles from the late teens.
I'm really hoping for a 2016 level of performance, because that's when we'll _finally_ get a node shrink from 28nm --> 14nm and exceed the 10 TFLOPS barrier. By that time, it will have been four years--instead of the regular two--without a new lithography process, deriving all the perf gains since early 2012 not from Moore's Law, but architectural improvements and bigger die sizes alone. Madness! And totally unprecedented.
So, no, I'm not comparing PS4 to a HD 4870. Computationally, it's somewhere around 2009 high-end level, but with a more modern architecture--which I was alluding would be analogous to how it will be with the ninth generation of consoles.
