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[sonycowboy]

This year will be interesting to say the least. We'll have 9 platforms out at the same time. Obviously some old will be tossed to the side, but who will end up on top? Who will disappoint?

Here's a estimate by Piper Jaffray for 2006, along with last years numbers:

System Estimate (LY)
1) PS2 4.5M (5.5M)
2) Xbox 0.75M (2.25M)
3) GCN 0.5 (1.87M)
4) 360 5M (0.6M)
5) PS3 0.75M (---)
6) Rev 0.5M (---)

7,8) GBA / DS 5.5M ( 4.2M / 2.6M) (Estimate is a combined total)
9) PSP 4.5M (3.7M)

So, basically, they expect Xbox and GCN to be dead, a marked fall for Nintendo handhelds, and very small PS3 and Rev launches. I don't think Rev will be that low, but the PS3 could easily be. I know Nintendo fans will rail at thier 2 consoles only selling 1M units (they'll sell quite a bit more), so instead of bitching about it, make your own predictions. And if you really want to be popular give some reasons for your estimates.

NOTE: These are models whose purpose is strictly to allow analysis of publisher sales in the next 2 years. So, they are generally on the conservative side, and any upside is considered to be more opportunity for the publishers.

 

[Mooreberg]

Sounds reasonable although I'd hope there is more hardware available on both of the new system launches. Otherwise a lot of people will probably be waiting until next March to get them. :-\

 

[ioi]

Lol at some of those numbers!!

PS2 4.5m
GC 1.4m
XB 1.1m
GBA 2.3m

X360 4.5m
PSP 4.5m
DS 5.0m

PS3 1.0m
Rev 1.0m

Last two could really be anybody's guess, depends on how many are made available.

 

[SantaC]

the ps3 and revolution will sell as much as going to be available. In other words, it depends.

 

[meltpotato]

4) 360 5M (0.6M)

wow! i think that may be factoring in an intense ps3 holiday shortage and people who were going to get a ps3 opting for a 360 instead.

 

[sonycowboy]

wow! i think that may be factoring in an intense ps3 holiday shortage and people who were going to get a ps3 opting for a 360 instead.

I think it's on the higher side, but my estimates for it would be from 4-5M units. It doesn't particularly have to do with the PS3 shortage, it'll more be a factor of the software lineup , which just for march is going to move some serious units, and then add on Gears of War along with some surprise annoucements we're likely to see at E3 for holiday games.

I personally think the PS2 will finish a bit ahead of the 360 (assuming a price drop to $119), but the wildcards are the two handhelds (PSP & DS). They should both do ~3.5-5M units (a pretty wide range, to be sure), but will eat up sales from other systems (or vice versa)

 

[meltpotato]

I think it's on the higher side, but my estimates for it would be from 4-5M units. It doesn't particularly have to do with the PS3 shortage, it'll more be a factor of the software lineup , which just for march is going to move some serious units, and then add on Gears of War along with some surprise annoucements we're likely to see at E3 for holiday games.

I personally think the PS2 will finish a bit ahead of the 360 (assuming a price drop to $119), but the wildcards are the two handhelds (PSP & DS). They should both do ~3.5-5M units (a pretty wide range, to be sure), but will eat up sales from other systems (or vice versa)

im not even going to touch handheld estimates. :lol

after thinking about it, the 360 numbers arent THAT unexpected, its just that the system has not reached a critical mass yet. i think its still viewed as hard to find with a few good games. if gears of war is what everyone is predicting than it could legitimately obtain the momentum needed for those numbers, but im pretty skeptical about that game. probably a bit of personal bias there.

 

[Frankfurter]

PS2 4.5M (with a price cut to $129 or $99)
Xbox 0.9M
GCN 1M (closing the gap )
360 4.5M
GBA 2.75M
DS 4M
PSP 4M

NRev and PS3 are both hard to predict, PS3 will basically sell every single unit Sony can produce, so I would say they will probably ship about a million to the USA (and sell that).
Nintendo will imho ship a bit more, let's say 1.5M and also sell 90%+ of that.

 

[sonycowboy]

Lol at some of those numbers!!

PS2 4.5m
GC 1.4m
XB 1.1m
GBA 2.3m

X360 4.5m
PSP 4.5m
DS 5.0m

PS3 1.0m
Rev 1.0m

Last two could really be anybody's guess, depends on how many are made available.

The most systems EVER sold in a given year has been 23.5M units and you're projecting 25.3M units. My estimates overall aren't that much different, but I'm a tad lower and even then I think some system(s) is(are) going to get squeezed because there's only so many buyers out there and so much buzz will be on the 3 new systems.

 

[Restricted_Area]

My Predictions:

PS2---->3.5M
GCN---->0.5M
XBOX----->0.4M
XBOX360----->6M
PSP---->4M
DS----->3.8M
GBA---->2.2M
ps3---->0.8M
Revo---->0.5M

XBOX360 FTW!

 

[ioi]

The most systems EVER sold in a given year has been 23.5M units and you're projecting 25.3M units. My estimates overall aren't that much different, but I'm a tad lower and even then I think some system(s) is(are) going to get squeezed because there's only so many buyers out there and so much buzz will be on the 3 new systems.

1) The videogame industry is expanding
2) There are more and more systems to chose from, right from budget (GBA) upto brand spanking new, all appealing to different audiences.

 

[lancubap]

This year will be interesting to say the least. We'll have 9 platforms out at the same time. Obviously some old will be tossed to the side, but who will end up on top? Who will disappoint?

Here's a estimate by Piper Jaffray for 2006, along with last years numbers:

System Estimate (LY)
1) PS2 4.5M (5.5M)
2) Xbox 0.75M (2.25M)
3) GCN 0.5 (1.87M)
4) 360 5M (0.6M)
5) PS3 0.75M (---)
6) Rev 0.5M (---)

7,8) GBA / DS 5.5M ( 4.2M / 2.6M) (Estimate is a combined total)
9) PSP 4.5M (3.7M)

So, basically, they expect Xbox and GCN to be dead, a marked fall for Nintendo handhelds, and very small PS3 and Rev launches. I don't think Rev will be that low, but the PS3 could easily be. I know Nintendo fans will rail at thier 2 consoles only selling 1M units (they'll sell quite a bit more), so instead of bitching about it, make your own predictions. And if you really want to be popular give some reasons for your estimates.

NOTE: These are models whose purpose is strictly to allow analysis of publisher sales in the next 2 years. So, they are generally on the conservative side, and any upside is considered to be more opportunity for the publishers.

A little more for Nintendo DS & GBA: that's because DS will sell very well thanks to games and Lite version, but you know all very well, so I stop here. And I think that Nintendo will probably present at E3 a new GameBoy (How I know this ? Top Secret...)

A little bit too high for PSP. Please stop take the PSP and idolatrise it 1000 meters over the rest: it is just ridicolous. Without AAA games no console in every planet sell at long term. It has been always like this and like this will remains. Only with a REAL Metal Gear Solid or a Gran Turismo, these predictions could be true.

Ok for Gamecube and Xbox. Ok for PS2.

A little too high for 360, but it almost right.

Please stop say shit for PS3 numbers: it will sell more then a stupid 0.75 millions. Sony will not launch the PS3 without a good amount of consoles in stock.

ThePrediction for the Revolution is just RI-DI-CO-LOUS: how can they predict how will sell without know the games, thes specs, the Third Party support......
I say not that it is unrealistic: it is absurd that they predict something that they know nothing or almost about.

EDIT: Read my Other thread about Analysts & Predictions: there's a good Article about how it is important to understand that what analysts say is not only gold.

 

[Ghengis Cohen]

Ok i'll play for once.
PS2 5 million. More if it hits $99 though $129 seems the magic number this year.
360 5.5 million. More if Halo 3 is shown at e3 and they can supply the demand.
PSP 4.5 million.
DS same as PSP unless we see Pokemon this year, than I say 6.
PS3 .8
Rev 1 million.
GBA 3 million.
Xbox .7
GC 1.5. maybe more if no rev functionality for Zelda.

EDIT: I meant 2 million for GBA. Oops.

 

[JavyOO7]

DS: 7M

I say 7M because I think the DS Lite is going to do wonderful things in America. Coupled along with the two Brain Training games that are going to make their way here next month and the month after, I think the so called "Japan" effect that the DS has will trickle over here to the states.

Nintendo most likely will do a pack in of the Brain Training games during Christmas, and maybe a non-gamer or two might say: "Oh snap, Sudokou... and other stuff!", and etc etc.

That being said, I fully believe with irrational reasoning that New Super Mario Bros. will be the highest selling software not only in Japan, but in America as well. Look at an interview with Mr. Miyamoto... he mentions how the non-gamers over at Japan have willingly bought their non-games might see Mario and might play their very first true game... hey, it can happen. Mario is a timeless figure in videogames and I don't think anyone can dispute that.

As for the other consoles...

PS3: as many as Sony can ship
Revolution: its going to lag behind Sony and MS for some time

As of this time, I am very cynical of the Revolution... yeah, I like the waggle wand, no question. Not many people here at GAF like it and thats okay since I respect everyone's opinions... but I think it's a very neat thing and if Nintendo hits lightning in the bottle the controller might spawn new genres of gaming and blah blah blah. That being said, the console could easily lag behind Sony and MS if the thing doesn't come with superb games... which I think it will, but it will take time.

PS3 is going to sell... regardless. The Sony brand name is strong. And they seemingly have unlimited 3rd party support, and in many cases, the best support. Weak launch or a great launch its going to sell regardless. I might have to end up buying PS3 in the spring of next year... only because Revolution is much more to my liking for my gaming tastes, and can tide me over for a couple of months when I have more money in my pocket.

Xbox360: 6M

It has interesting games that I want... Oblivion/FN3/GRAW... what's NOT to like about the system? This will be only my second non-Nintendo console (PS2)... so I'm pretty sure I'll fall in line with everyone who sings the 360 praises soon. Though I think MS can't help but shake on their boots because of Sony's PS3... I mean, that's their biggest competitor afterall. MS at this point is probably laughing at Nintendo, not caring what they do. MS should have a nice line-up of winter games... preparing everyone for the onslaught that is Halo 3 next spring/summer.

 

[Ghengis Cohen]

ThePrediction for the Revolution is just RI-DI-CO-LOUS: how can they predict how will sell without know the games, thes specs, the Third Party support......
I say not that it is unrealistic: it is absurd that they predict something that they know nothing or almost about.

Whoa don't take it so bad. The prediction is based off of nothing besides how many units they think Nintendo will ship. It will sell out regardless.

 

[jarrod]

PlayStation 2 ~5.000.000 (sales spurred by price drop)
PlayStation 3 ~500.000 (severly supply constricted)
PSP~ 4.500.000 (sales spurred by price drop)

Game Boy Advance ~3.000.000 (in fast decline)
Nintendo DS ~5.500.000 (sales spurred by Lite + Mario)
GameCube ~1.000.000 (dead, slight bump with Zelda)
Revolution ~1.000.000 (supply constricted)

Xbox ~750.000 (dead, production winding down)
Xbox 360 ~5.500.000 (momentum + supply)

 

[argon]

PS2 5.0m
Xbox 0.5m
GCN 0.75m
360 6.0m
PS3 0.7m
Rev 1.0m

 

[Striek]

I'll throw mine in for no other reason than to compare at the end of the year...

PS2: 5.5M
X360: 4.5M
Xbox: 1M
GC: 1.2M
PSP: 5M
DS: 4.45M
GBA: 2.5M
PS3: 1.2M
Rev: 1.3M

 

[cvxfreak]

GC: 1,000,000
GBA: 3,000,000
DS: 4,000,000 (DS lite + Mario + Pokemon)
REV: 1,100,000 (assuming it launches in November)

PS2: 4,500,000
PSP: 3,900,000
PS3: 750,000 (supply constrained)

Xbox: 750,000
Xbox 360: 4,000,000

Just random guesses. Nothing too serious.

 

[GhaleonEB]

First number is the estimates sonycowboy provided, the second is my guess.

1) PS2 4.5M (5m)
2) Xbox 0.75M (1m)
3) GCN 0.5 (.75m)
4) 360 5M (5.5m)
5) PS3 0.75M (.75m)
6) Rev 0.5M (1m)

I think Nintendo will not have the severe supply constraints in the US as Sony will have for two reasons. One, their hardware will be MUCH simpler to manufacture, and two they do not seem to be targeting a global launch and can stage their product ramp accordingly. There will be enough interest from the diehards to drive a million units fast, then it's up to the legs of the system to branch out.

All signs point to massive PS3 shortages, and I'm very doubtful that Sony will ramp volumes as fast as they claim. The logistical challenges of the world-wide launch combined with the complexity of the hardware makes me think 750k for the US is actually aggressive. Their "modified" launch for the US PS2 is likely to repeat, I suspect.

Those shortages combined with a price drop will move a good number of PS2 units.

The XBox and GC will battle themselves into irrelevancy.

I won't speculate on the handheld front, mostly because I don't pay attention to it.

I think the 360 will continue to sell pretty much all the units MS can pump out for most, if not all, of the year. I'm optimistic that the 3rd manufacturing plant will drive good volumes through spring and summer as games like GRAW and Oblivion move hardware. A great 2nd wave of games combined with very few PS3's will mean a great holiday season.

 

[thestopsign]

Well if the 360 actually does start out with a 5,000,000 lead on the other two consoles. I think both are going to have a hard time fighting back, especially when Halo 3 comes and destroys all of the competition some time in 2007. I doubt that the Revolution is going to be in much trouble supplies wise unlike the PS3. So it is likely to sell around 1,300,000 - 1,500,000 depending on when it launches. The PS3 on the other had is going to have severe supply problems no matter what Sony says. Sony better start making them in August if they want to get a good supply curculating. So a good guess is every single unit that Sony ships 700,000 - 900,000 would be my guess.

Predictions

Xbox
900,000 - Dwindling down to nothing this year with Microsoft stopping production prematurely, and pretty much killing any chance of selling many Xbox's.

Xbox 360
4,700,000 - I think it will level out in sales around May after the big impact in March, and show what it is going to do for the rest of the year. I think that sales will be 170,000 for most of the year after March, and then getting a big boost to gigantic boost depending on supply issues for Sony during the holidays.

Game Boy Advance
1,900,000 - Steady sales all year. Going to effect the overall DS sales. Though once the DS Lite comes out I think that the GBA audience will transfer over the the DS.

Nintendo DS
4,600,000 - This really depends if the GBA audience shifts over the DS when the DS Lite comes out. I expect both Mario and the DS Lite to do big things in May, and should boost the sales considerably for the rest of the year. Also a regular DS pricedrop to 100$ should help sales.

Gamecube
1,100,000 - I think this will get a slight bump due to Legend of Zelda, but then die completely.

PSP
4,600,000 - This is going to be in a dead heat with the DS for the whole year with each one pulling ahead at different times. I think the pricedrop is going to greatly increase sales for the rest of the year.

PS2
5,200,000 - This could be even more if the price drop is to 100$, but the PS2 will have amazing sales this holiday with the magical price point, Final Fantasy, and PS3 shortages.

PS3
850,000 - Severe shortages. 'nuff said.

 

[AniHawk]

Xbox: 900,000
X360: 4,000,000
GC: 900,000
GBA: 2,500,000
NDS: 3,100,000
REV: 500,000
PS2: 5,000,000
PSP: 4,100,000
PS3: 750,000

The PSP's "price drop" will bring the system ahead for the rest of the handheld wars in the US, despite DS Lite. It's going to become Xbox vs. Gamecube all over again, not Genesis vs. SNES.

 

[Koopakiller]

GBA- 4.8 million
DS- 4.3 million
PSP- 4 million
PS2- 5 million
GCN- 300k
Xbox- 301k
PS3- 1.2 million
Revolution- 1 million
Xbox360- 2 million

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

Me > Piper Jaffray. Therefore:

Consoles

Xbox 360: 5,000,000 to 5,500,000 - Higher because it will clear a couple million and sell out extremely fast for the upcoming holidays. Premium and Core will be $349 and $249 respectively.

PlayStation 3: 1,000,000+ - Pretty much whatever Sony can stock, Sony will sell. They will probably have at least 1 million systems on tap for Americans for the holidays. Probably no more than 1.5 million and definitely not more than 2 million.

Revolution: 500,000 to 750,000 - This holiday is owned by Sony and backed by Microsoft. Revolution will not be the hot Christmas item but the shortages from PS3 and probably Xbox 360 will help fuel sales but not enough to make it a huge success. Their time to shine will be after the holidays once the PS3-mania has cooled down.

Handhelds

PlayStation Portable: 3,500,000 to 4,000,000 - The PSP shows no signs of stopping and with more games and now a $199 price tag later on, the PSP will start to sell like hotcakes. Will probably be a favorite alternative to the sold out PS3, along with the Xbox 360. I think sales will explode once it gets to $200.

Nintendo DS: 2,000,000 to 2,500,000 - It will do worse than PSP but not by much, which is pretty much been the theme since the PSP has been released. New Super Mario Bros will help it out along with continual sales of their late 2005 releases like Mario Kart and Animal Crossing.

 

[A Link to the Past]

It all depends on how well the DS Lite, Metroid, Tetris and Mario do for the DS in Spring.

 

[underfooter]

I think DS will do a lot better. I don't know why, I just don't see how people will turn down a DS Lite when Metroid, Mario, and FF3 are on it. Not only that, but the thing is becoming a fad. PSP is cool, but I don't see people publicly playing it like the DS. I think the Single-cartridge multiplayer will go a long way in ensuring that more and more people pick up a DS.


Whats to say the DS Lite won't drop in price as well?

 

[GhaleonEB]

PlayStation 3: 2,000,000+ - Pretty much whatever Sony can stock, Sony will sell. They will probably have at least 2 million systems on tap for Americans for the holidays. Probably no more than 2.5 million and definitely not more than 3 million.

The problem I have with these estimates is how they square with Sony's plans. Sony has made two statements regarding their shipping plans:

1) 6m units world-wide by March 31, 2007 (end of fiscal year)
2) Peak production of 1m units per month

Assuming they hit peak production by the end of the year, that leaves 3 million units after the end of calendar 2006 (one million per month). That leaves 3 million for 2006 for the US, Canada, Eurpope, Japan, Australia and greater Asia, all of which Sony has specified will be part of the 2006 global launch. That the US market would get 2-2.5m of the 3m units seems unlikely to me. I predict a more even split betwee Japan, NA and Europe and then smaller allocations to the other territories. The 750k estimate for the US in 2006 makes sense with that kind of a split. And all that assumes they will hit their shipping targets, which they did not do with the PS2.

 

[JJConrad]

PS2 - 4,500,000
GCN - 1,000,000
Xbox - 850,000

The Playstation 2 will carry its momentum throughout the year, while the Gamecube and Xbox fade away. Zelda will give the Gamecube the edge.


360 - 4,500,000
Rev - 1,250,000*
PS3 - 1,000,000*

Sony and Nintendo are going to sell as many as they can get out this year. Nintendo will likely have fewer production issues and definitely won't do less than the Gamecube or DS did in their first season. The Xbox 360 sales will be on par with the original Xbox.


DS - 4,500,000
PSP - 3,750,000
GBA - 3,000,000

The GBA will fade as the DS replaces it. The PSP won't have the advantage of its launch, so its numbers will remain flat. Hopefully it sees a better line-up after E3 and a good sized price drop. The DS will pull ahead as more people see it as the GBA successor(which will increase when Pokemon DS is unvieled). If Pokemon DS is released this year that perception change will happen even quicker and these numbers will be considerably different.

 

[Pack of Wild Rats]

I think DS will do a lot better. I don't know why, I just don't see how people will turn down a DS Lite when Metroid, Mario, and FF3 are on it. Not only that, but the thing is becoming a fad. PSP is cool, but I don't see people publicly playing it like the DS. I think the Single-cartridge multiplayer will go a long way in ensuring that more and more people pick up a DS.


Whats to say the DS Lite won't drop in price as well?

I've never seen someone with a DS in public, other than a little kid. PSP on the other hand, is everywhere. Mostly I see it being used as a mp3 palyer though...

For predictions, I'd say 360 will sell about 5 million. PS3 will sell everything that is shipped. Rev will depend a lot on the games it launches with, probably between 500k-1 mil. PSP and DS will be between 4-5 million, with PSP having a small lead.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

Yeah, its pretty messed up. I think the worldwide launch is a bad idea in general unless Sony has at least a million in every major territory and another million the first month. I'd be willing to say the first 5-10 million PS3 units will sell as soon as they're stocked and then the waters will calm. 750,000 for 2006 is madness though. I'd expect them to go for about $1500-2000 on Ebay if true. Retailers will jack up the MSRP to unreasonable prices too.

I also heard that Sony is shipping two million units out for the launch at first; then they are going to do the million a month.

 

[Beowvlf]

Meh, why not:

PS3: 1.2m -- 600-800k at launch in November, the remainder spread out to the end of the year.
PS2: 4.3m -- Sharp decline from last year due to no price cut in order to offset PS3 costs.
PSP: 4.1m -- Core package plus strong lineup throughout entire year will push sales past LY totals.

Xbox 360: 4.2m -- Lack of enough systems in Q1 will hurt overall; PS3 launch will cool demand to Xbox circa 2003 levels.
Xbox: 0.8m -- Low production = low sales. Holiday '06 sales will be VERY weak.

REV: 1.0m -- Typically solid Nintendo launch, hardcore fanbase will buy regardless of press.
DS: 3.4m -- Lite + Mario helping in the summer will spur sales beyond LY totals.
GBA: 2.8m -- Massive decline from LY due to lack of content and aging HW.
GC: 0.8m -- Horrid sales in Q1 to Q3, picked up slightly by Zelda in Q4; REV compatibility will leech some of that however.

 

[jett]

My prediction: PS2 will outsell the 360 this year. :hippolol

 

[TurtleSnatcher]

Gamestop sent e-mails to stores saying that november shipments of ps3's will be only 1 mil so itll be a repeat of the xbox360 fallout =[

I think now they are really holidng out preorders until very late and are asking employees to not talk nothing but the ps3 to slowdown hype and customers demanding preorders :lol

 

[djtiesto]

I think after New Super Mario Bros, some more info on the Pokemon/Zelda DS games, the just released Tetris DS and MP:H, and the release of the Lite, the DS will definitely come out ahead over PSP, even barring the PSP price drop. Reason being is that there isn't really much that's relatively interesting on the horizon for PSP (Ultimate Ghouls and Ghosts looks phenominal, but probably won't be much of a mainstream hit. And I think I saw PSP being played out in public once, by some fat kid at the local BBQ joint More often than not its little kids or NYC emokids/hipsters with DSes.

 

[sonycowboy]

I think after New Super Mario Bros, some more info on the Pokemon/Zelda DS games, the just released Tetris DS and MP:H, and the release of the Lite, the DS will definitely come out ahead over PSP, even barring the PSP price drop. Reason being is that there isn't really much that's relatively interesting on the horizon for PSP (Ultimate Ghouls and Ghosts looks phenominal, but probably won't be much of a mainstream hit. And I think I saw PSP being played out in public once, by some fat kid at the local BBQ joint More often than not its little kids or NYC emokids/hipsters with DSes.

You mean besides the orgy of games that came out the past two or three weeks, right??

(I have already said I don't expect them to be big sellers, but it's ridiculous to pretend like no games have come out)

 

[Phoenix]

I only deal with consoles - here are my numbers


1) PS2 4.5M
2) Xbox 0.65M
3) GCN 0.4M
4) 360 4.25M
5) PS3 1.1M
6) Rev 0.8M



I don't think many people are going to be buying into the XBox at its end of life, especially with a stronger content pipe on the PS2 and the X360 available with good content.

On the 360 I think it will sell strong, but not as strong as many predict due to the other launches. I may revise these numbers come E3 however.

PS3, they'll sell all they deliver into the theater which I'm betting will be closer to 1 million through the end of the year.

Rev will do fine and have a strong launch, but unless I see something major at E3 - I don't think they'll have a situation of selling out or anything. I hope they can come up with some cool stuff to work the field, but I'm still not expecting a lot from Nintendo.

 

[jarrod]

You mean besides the orgy of games that came out the past two or three weeks, right??

(I have already said I don't expect them to be big sellers, but it's ridiculous to pretend like no games have come out)

This happened to GameCube as well, despite a healthy flow of games (including tons of ports from EA, Activision, THQ and others... something N64 was sorely lacking) people tend to only look at high profile exclusives as a measure for software library. This is going to end up hurting PSP long term I think, there's no reason to for the casual PS2 base to pick one up when they can already play most of it's games (including big name exclusives like GTA or Lumines which seem to be going to PS2 eventually anyway).

DS has a definite advantage in it's unique setup almost demanding unique software (though most of it's coming from Japan... as seems to be the case for all handhelds) and in it being a clear eventual move for the massive 30+ million American GBA base (while the similarly massive PS2 base is more likely to migrate to PS3 or even Xbox 360 ahead of PSP imo).

 

[Frankfurter]

I only deal with consoles - here are my numbers


1) PS2 4.5M
2) Xbox 0.65M
3) GCN 0.4M
4) 360 4.25M
5) PS3 1.1M
6) Rev 0.8M

Although Piper Jaffray is not that much more optimistic than you, your Xbox and GCN numbers seem a bit ... impossible
YTD sales for Xbox and GCN are ~177k and ~133k. The 650k for Xbox could perhaps happen, but for GCN to only reach 400k the December 06 numbers would have to be sth. like 100k.

 

[Monorojo]

PS2 5M
Xbox 0.8M
GCN 1.1M
360 4M
PSP 5.5M
DS 3.5M

Wont even post Rev or Ps3, dont know how both will be stocked so not able to predict. Both will have aroun 90%+ sellthrough tho.

PSP dominates in a way no one would have thought this year.

 

[djtiesto]

This happened to GameCube as well, despite a healthy flow of games (including tons of ports from EA, Activision, THQ and others... something N64 was sorely lacking) people tend to only look at high profile exclusives as a measure for software library. This is going to end up hurting PSP long term I think, there's no reason to for the casual PS2 base to pick one up when they can already play most of it's games (including big name exclusives like GTA or Lumines which seem to be going to PS2 eventually anyway).

DS has a definite advantage in it's unique setup almost demanding unique software (though most of it's coming from Japan... as seems to be the case for all handhelds) and in it being a clear eventual move for the massive 30+ million American GBA base (while the similarly massive PS2 base is more likely to migrate to PS3 or even Xbox 360 ahead of PSP imo).

Wait... when was it confirmed that Lumines was going to PS2?

 

[jarrod]

Wait... when was it confirmed that Lumines was going to PS2?

Sorry, Lumines 2.

 

[Lo-Volt]

PlayStation 2: 5.0 to 5.25 million. There's no way around it: this system still has too many good titles out in CY 2006 to bomb. I honestly think there will be market support for the PS2 at its current price, so this will make good money for SCEI in the remainder of the year.

Xbox: 700,000 to 750,000. There's no reason to own this console, and with the company moving all its production to the Xbox 360, it'll have to be just what's flowing in store supplies from here on out. Rest in peace, big black monolith.

GameCube: about the same.

PlayStation 3: Hmm. 750,000 to 1.0 million depending on supply issues from Sony this early, but whatever is sent here in 2006 will be sold. Same is true for the Revolution, which I'll guess will also do 750,000 to 1.15 million in 2006 assuming it does indeed launch before Thanksgiving. If the launch titles for the Nintendo console are poor, though, maybe subtract 100,000 units?

Xbox 360: 4.25 million to 4.5 million; Microsoft's snafus up to now and Sony's hype train combined should equal a missed target, but it's not at all out of the fight.

I won't guess PSP and DS numbers, but the DS is bound for a reasonably close second unless the Lite really makes an impact.

 

[Jiggy]

I won't guess PSP and DS numbers, but the DS is bound for a reasonably close second unless the Lite really makes an impact.

The DS Lite might not have to. Even the Mario Bros. ports on the GBA were million-sellers, as was Mario 64 DS, so New SMB might do splendidly. And then, of course, there's Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass...

 

[donny2112]

System Estimate Predictions for 2006
1) 360 4.5 million
2) PS2 3.8 million
3) NDS 3.7 million
4) PSP 3.5 million
5) GBA 3.2 million
6) Rev 1.5 million
7) GCN 1.3 million
8) XBX 1.0 million
9) PS3 1.0 million


1) The original XBX sold 3.2 million in its first full year (2002). The 360 is ahead of that pace, and its competition won't be here until the end of the year. Microsoft is really shooting themselves in the foot by not taking advantage of their year headstart, but they'll still have a huge lead when the PS3 comes out. They might be ahead at the end of 2007, after all.

2) PS2 will continue its downward trend (2002 - 8.4, 2003 - 6.3, 2004 - 4.7, 2005 - 5.5) that 2005 was an aberration of due to shortages at the end of 2004. I agree with a previous assessment (sonycowboy's?) that Sony is stocking up on profit with the PS2 to help subsidize the early heavy losses that PS3 will have due to Sony not being idiots and pricing it > $500.

3) Assuming no Pokemon, the NDS will see heavy gains (over 2005) with the DS Lite and NSMB's releases. I am anticipating that Brain Training will bring in older players to the DS fold, as well. If Pokemon comes in 2006, add at least another million to the total. Also, I am not counting on a price drop to $99 for the DS (at least the Lite version) this year.

4) Another new GTA will help the PSP which has shown a penchant for selling in the absence of games on both sides of the Pacific.

For the record, I think both NDS's and PSP's totals stink for 2005 and what I'm predicting for 2006. For reference, the GBA has never sold lower than 4.4 million in a full year in the U.S., and that was last year on which sonycowboy continually harped on GBA's massive decline yoy.

5) The GBA will continue its own downward trend, but without Pokemon coming out on the DS this year, it'll still sell. Pokemon DS will probably signal the GBA-buying mass that it's time to switch to the DS.

For a bit of philosophy on the handheld market ...

The reason that all the previous handheld competitors to the GameBoy line failed wasn't that the GameBoy was just "so great." It's that the market wasn't large enough to sustain two systems, and Nintendo was there first (to the masses). It wasn't until Pokemon came out that the handheld market really took off. You didn't think Nintendo stuck with the 8-bit Gameboy for 9 years because it was ahead of its time, did you? It was because there was no reason for a new handheld without a market for it. Pokemon has been, and will continue to be, the driver for the "mass market" in the handheld line. The GBA was the first "real" system for handheld games doing great for the mass market outside of Pokemon, so it has lessened the importance of Pokemon. However, Pokemon is still the 800-lb gorilla. What does an 800-lb gorilla do? Whatever it wants.

6) Revoultion is an XBX+ in power. The only way that Nintendo would have complexity problems in manufacturing leading to less systems to sell (like 360) is if the controller is a beast to make. With that in mind, they should be able to pump them out like gangbusters. It isn't like their manufacturing plants are overwhelmed with GameCube orders, after all.

7) GameCube will be the budget console, and with the Game of the Year coming out on it (Zelda: TP), it'll manage to hit a relatively decent number in its swansong year.

8) Xbox has been killed by the 360. It won't have Halo 3 coming out on it, but it'll still be a semi-popular buy (if they ever get rid of the Forza bundle and can sell the system by itself, that is. ).

9) The PS3 will sell as many systems as can be put out on store shelves, which fortunately for Sony, won't be that much. Expect monster numbers for it as the PS2-mass begin to switch in 2007.

 

[chinmonster]

I think the Revolution will ship at least a million units. 0.5 is being way conservative, imo.

PS3 will probably ship .75 million, and as for the others, I have no idea. I really don't care, as long as I own them. :lol I'm assuming that the Revolution will be cheaper and fairly easy to produce, of course.

 

[starship]

This is mine:

NDS = 5 millions
PS2 = 4.5 millions
GBA = 4 millions
PSP = 4 millions
Xbox360 = 4 millions
Rev = 1.5 millions
GC = 1.2 millions
PS3 = 1 million
Xbox = 1 million

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Just comments.

First, any of those 0.5 million GameCube guesses for the year are crazy. To do that low it would have to sell something like 30K a month through October, 60K for November, and 80K for December.

360 - 4,500,000

The Xbox 360 sales will be on par with the original Xbox.

That is, though, giving 360 an extra half million top of Xbox's best year.

 

[donny2112]

The professional:

(in millions)    PS2  XBX  GCN  360  PS3  REV  GBA   NDS   PSP     Total
Piper Jaffray    4.5  0.8  0.5  5.0  0.8  0.5  2.8*  2.8*  4.5     22.2

* original number combined GBA/DS total


The amateurs with full predictions:

(in millions)    PS2  XBX  GCN  360  PS3  REV  GBA   NDS   PSP     Total
ioi              4.5  1.1  1.4  4.5  1.0  1.0  2.3   5.0   4.5     25.3
Frankfurter      4.5  0.9  1.0  4.5  1.0  1.4  2.8   4.0   4.0     24.1
Restricted_Area  3.5  0.4  0.5  6.0  0.8  0.5  2.2   3.8   4.0     21.7
Billy Rygar      5.0  0.7  1.5  5.5  0.8  1.0  3.0   4.5   4.5     26.5
jarrod           5.0  0.8  1.0  5.5  0.5  1.0  3.0   5.5   4.5     26.8
Striek           5.5  1.0  1.2  4.5  1.2  1.3  2.5   4.5   5.0     26.7
cvxfreak         4.5  0.8  1.0  4.0  0.8  1.1  3.0   4.0   5.0     24.2
Stopsign         5.2  0.9  1.1  4.7  0.9  1.4  1.9   4.6   4.6     25.3
AniHawk          5.0  0.9  0.9  4.0  0.8  0.5  2.5   3.1   4.1     21.8
Koopakiller      5.0  0.3  0.3  2.0  1.2  1.0  4.8   4.3   4.0     22.9
JJConrad         4.5  0.9  1.0  4.5  1.0  1.3  3.0   4.5   3.8     24.5
Heian-kyo        4.3  0.8  0.8  4.2  1.2  1.0  2.8   3.4   4.1     22.6
donny2112        3.8  1.0  1.3  4.5  1.0  1.5  3.2   3.7   3.5     23.5
kia              4.5  1.0  1.2  4.0  1.0  1.5  4.0   5.0   4.0     26.2

Average          4.6  0.8  1.0  4.5  0.9  1.1  2.9   4.3   4.3     24.4

Based on the average, we basically all agree that Piper Jaffray's Nintendo numbers are complete crap. Everything else looks about the same.


The amateurs with partial (but actual) predictions:

(in millions)    PS2  XBX  GCN  360  PS3  REV  GBA   NDS   PSP
argon            5.0  0.5  0.8  6.0  0.7  1.0
GhaleonEB        4.5  0.8  0.5  5.0  0.8  0.5
The Experiment                  5.3  1.0  0.6        2.3   3.8
Phoenix          4.5  0.7  0.4  4.3  1.1  0.8
Monorojo         5.0  0.8  1.1  4.0                  3.5   5.5
Lo-Volt          5.1  0.7  0.7  4.4  0.9  1.0

This'll be very interesting to come back to in late January 2007 to see how it stacked up to reality.

Anymore predictions? (sonycowboy, I'm looking at you. )

 

[First Children]

US this year will mirror Japan of last year, except that 360 will do better.

Rev and Ps3 will sell as much units as Nintendo and Sony can produce, probably Rev > Ps3. The european launch of ps3 will be delayed to 2007.

 

[<nu>faust]

nextgen:

Xbox360 = 6 millions
Rev = 1.5 millions
Ps3 = 1 million

currentgen:

Ps2 = 5 millions
Xbox = 1 million
Gc = 1 million

handheld:

Nds = 4 millions
Gba = 2.5 millions
PSP = 4 millions