Halo Infinite is in a different camp than those games. Those were new IP and had no prior history of disappointing or misleading fans, because they had no fans to begin with.
343i have a history of messing Halo up in one significant way or another ever since they took over the franchise, and now they've gone as far as to piss off the hardcore fanbase with Infinite. Once you piss off your hardcore fans, they don't tend to come back, at least not for
VERY long time.
When the IP is new and just building up a fanbase, if that fanbase ends up pissed they'll be more forgiving since, again, it's a new IP. Even so, No Man's Sky never got the attention once fixed like it did when it launched, same with Sea of Thieves really. I just think SoT benefited from having Microsoft as a publisher so when milestones were reached, people took notice, and the PotC expansion was probably the first time for many in years actually having it hit home "
Yeah, this game still exists.". No Man's Sky hasn't gotten that type of boost it seems.
Halo Infinite seems like the straw that broke the camel's back (the camel's back being the core community's patience/acceptance of 343i as a developer on Halo). I don't see a path of recovery for Halo Infinite unless:
-Effectively use a new big Season update (All usual MP options, Forge mode, Campaign co-op, new Story Campaign content) to soft-relaunch the game
-Fix the ridiculous battle progression
-Normalize MTX prices
and they (343i)
might be able to salvage their reputation among the core fanbase and maybe even draw back some of the casual fans. But they need to take care of their hardcore/core fanbase first and foremost. If they can't do that, they probably can't do anything for the game to really bring in casuals like a Battle Royale, because let's say they just skip all that stuff I said but bring out a good BR mode.
Okay, fine...at what cost? They probably just alienate even more of the core fanbase, and now the franchise loses its foundation to hop on the hot new thing. What if having a BR isn't enough anymore, where would they go having left their foundation in shambles? I think that's when you seriously look at a future where 343i is just no longer making Halo games, maybe some of the team join other Microsoft Gaming studios like iD Software, Bethesda, Obsidian etc. Maybe there's a good case to be made for reforming 343i as an internal technical support studio. Let them assist in helping other studios get their games developed faster.
And maybe...you either just let another studio take on Halo (again, maybe iD Software, etc.) if they're interested, or you just focus on Halo outside of gaming. Worst case, you retire the Halo brand altogether.
One thing for sure though I think 343i is going to undergo some
massive changes in structure once the ABK deal fully goes through. And maybe some "other" changes need to be made at the upper management levels of XGS altogether, maybe do something about Matt Booty
...