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[TeamGhobad]

Definitely more than xbox one but less than xbox 360. XO is at about 50mil and will end up at about 55million. xbox 360 sold about 85million.
I predict scarlett will sell about 70-75million in lifetime sales, which is about 20million more than this gen, an increase of about 40%. Which is a lot for MS.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

The console warz are more or less over. Microsoft will produce hardware if serves a purpose, but at some point, they're fighting a uphill battle that gets steeper and steeper. Microsoft is trying to slowly convince its existing user base to move to Windows PC, or alternatively play Microsoft games on other platforms/devices or use their "services". It will eventually all be "service" based.

Well that leads to being Third Party. I don't think MS is ready to do that yet. None the less they are also the easiest to do this out of all console makers, as they really don't need the console to make a living. I think Scarlet would really need to prove to the CEOs why and how it could justify the investment making it.

 

[DanielsM]

Well that leads to being Third Party. I don't think MS is ready to do that yet. None the less they are also the easiest to do this out of all console makers, as they really don't need the console to make a living. I think Scarlet would really need to prove to the CEOs why and how it could justify the investment making it.

It will be interesting to see how long the big third publishers continue to support it or don't support it going forward, with the way Microsoft is adjusting their business model. I'm assuming Xbox as a Hardware will not be a priority for most big publishers, just release on their normal PC distribution channels, imo. (I suspect or guess Xbox as a Hardware to continue to nosedive for obvious reasons at this point)

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

It will be interesting to see how long the big third publishers continue to support it or don't support it going forward, with the way Microsoft is adjusting their business model. I'm assuming Xbox as a Hardware will not be a priority for most big publishers, just release on their normal PC distribution channels, imo. (I suspect or guess Xbox as a Hardware to continue to nosedive for obvious reasons at this point)

Well, MS is the first to start using MAU. And there are consequences to that. By separating consoles sold from the actual performance metric, the selling of consoles itself gets downplayed. And once something is downplayed, it gets less priority in funding.

Of course, this could all be lip service. MS is just as likely to suddenly give Scarlet a huge push next year and downplay PCs. Just as Sony pretended they didn't need Backwards Compatibility for nearly the entirety of PS4's life, only to reveal the exact opposite this year.

 

[DanielsM]

Well, MS is the first to start using MAU. And there are consequences to that. By separating consoles sold from the actual performance metric, the selling of consoles itself gets downplayed. And once something is downplayed, it gets less priority in funding.

Of course, this could all be lip service. MS is just as likely to suddenly give Scarlet a huge push next year and downplay PCs. Just as Sony pretended they didn't need Backwards Compatibility for nearly the entirety of PS4's life, only to reveal the exact opposite this year.

Microsoft is already on a path, its the same path the rest of the company is on i.e. services and cloud services. Its basically the Windows Phone strategy, the difference is, existing Xbox users can be move to other services and to Windows 10, this was not possible with Windows Phone. I expect Xbox as a Hardware to sell 4.5-5.5m units this year (worse full year in Xbox's existence), next year it might struggle to sell 1-2m units thru October 2020 without them giving them away in massive sales.

Microsoft would rather everyone play Xbox games on their Windows PC.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Less than Xbox One, but more revenue for the Xbox division through increased games sales on PC now that they’re out of the Windows store and have a better app and are putting games on Steam, selling more and more Gamepass subs to Xbox owners and PC gamers and Xcloud subscriptions.

I think PS5 will sell less than PS4 as well. Things like Gamepass, Stadia and other streaming and download subscriptions will cut into console sales at least a tad.

 

[Mozza]

Could be a lot closer this time around,if Microsoft just focus on the games then they could make up some serious ground on Sony.

 

[Dabaus]

Id argue MS is in a good position for a rebound after the failures of the xbox one. The xbo did so poorly compared to ps4 for a lot of reasons but namely the launch was abysmal and the frequent 180’s and mismanagement put it at a major disadvantage. Launching a new system with BC, promised higher quality games, an improved online infrastructure and aiming for a moderate price alone sounds 100x than tvtvtvkinecttv

First impressions can really make a difference. It took ps3 years to catch up to the 360 for those similar fuck ups.

Id say they can only go up from here, but thats not saying alot. The reactions from this years E3 was Meh at best after MS hyped it up and claimed they were going "Big." True believers may hang in there but i think most fair weather fans of the brand can see that the glory days over. Last months sales the xbox sold around 88k units, and thats on top of a new model launch of the SAD edition. The wheels are falling off the brand, thats why Phil is going around saying console sales dont matter and not denying Halo or Gears of war on rival platforms.

 

[Achillias]

It's going to sell well if Microsoft keep their promise on delivering an beast of a console which in no way's is less powered than the PS5.

 

[Vlightray]

Hoping for more than Xbox One at least. But If we don't get great 1st Party games then I really dunno.

 

[Vawn]

It's going to sell well if Microsoft keep their promise on delivering an beast of a console which in no way's is less powered than the PS5.

That doesn't matter much. Games and price are both far more important factors.

 

[Psykodad]

I'm gonna say more than OG Xbox, less than Xbox One.

Their shift to a streaming service will be the downfall of Xbox-consoles.
With every step that MS takes, they take away reasons to own a Xbox.

And tbh, I believe it's calculated as they know they're out of the running when it comes to competing with Playstation and their new approach falls in line with their original plans for Xbox One (under Mattrick).

 

[Silent Viper]

Let's hope people right about Scarlet beating Xbox one in sales .

 

[Wwg1wga]

Sorry i'm not allowed to express my opinion, xbox is not a free speech.

 

[InterMusketeer]

XBox hasn't delivered in years. I can only imagine people will remember that and abandon the brand. Fewer sales than XOne, more than OG XBox.

 

[MiyazakiHatesKojima]

Hopefully enough to keep Sony on their toes for the entire next generation.

 

[phil_t98]

all depends who has the most power, multiple games are where its won and lost. if Sony has the most powerful and the games look better they win easy, if Microsoft have the power they will be much closer to Sony

 

[DanielsM]

all depends who has the most power, multiple games are where its won and lost. if Sony has the most powerful and the games look better they win easy, if Microsoft have the power they will be much closer to Sony

Well, not that I think a console war actually exists anymore. The PS4 is really the only console to lead in sales based on power vs. competition. Microsoft already has the most powerful "console" (whatever that may mean right now i.e. Xbox One X), and a person can have the most powerful "console" right now and play Xbox games, its called a PC. You might end up being right but power really hasn't been a good reason for one console to win over another in terms of sales, both the PS3/X360 lost to the two Gamecubes duct taped together Wii, and the power difference was quite large. Right now the Switch is selling very well, the Xbox One X not so much. Some small difference in process ability isn't going to matter much either way, imo.

 

[phil_t98]

Well, not that I think a console war actually exists anymore. The PS4 is really the only console to lead in sales based on power vs. competition. Microsoft already has the most powerful "console" (whatever that may mean right now i.e. Xbox One X), and a person can have the most powerful "console" right now and play Xbox games, its called a PC. You might end up being right but power really hasn't been a good reason for one console to win over another in terms of sales, both the PS3/X360 lost to the two Gamecubes duct taped together Wii, and the power difference was quite large. Right now the Switch is selling very well, the Xbox One X not so much. Some small difference in process ability isn't going to matter much either way, imo.

Thing is look at how many consoles have sold this gen, a hell of a lot on both sides. Consoles always gonna sell and the X is the most powerful and helped microsoft gain a bit of traction back but it was late in the day.

 

[DynamiteCop!]

Less than Xbox One

When One launch the original game like Sunset Ovrdrive, Halo, Ryse, Killr Instinct were used to be Xbox One exclusives

People are now aware that from now on every xbox game are coming to PC

People will have more desire to upgrade PC ( Xbox+ PC game not coming to console)

More options more game to play

Nobody gives two shits about these games being on PC, the reality is the crossover was never that great to begin with and console gamers are going to console game regardless.

This false reality and narrative that games being shared on PC suddenly caused some rift is preposterous. The minority of people who play on both either went to PC full time or split their time between PC and console with Play Anywhere.

PC is desirable to people who care for it, most just want to plug in a box and press start and that's the reality.

 

[Hendrick's]

I think it will outsell the 360, assuming we are including all itterations of the next gen console.

 

[ethomaz]

I believe it will have a lower launch than Xbox One.

Even with all issues Xbox One have still games to appeal for gamers... Scearlett not.

 

[Stuart360]

Nobody gives two shits about these games being on PC, the reality is the crossover was never that great to begin with and console gamers are going to console game regardless.

This false reality and narrative that games being shared on PC suddenly caused some rift is preposterous. The minority of people who play on both either went to PC full time or split their time between PC and console with Play Anywhere.

PC is desirable to people who care for it, most just want to plug in a box and press start and that's the reality.

It will be interesting to see the narrative completely change once Sony start releasing their games on PC, which is inevitable imo, its only a matter of time.

 

[DynamiteCop!]

I believe it will have a lower launch than Xbox One.

Even with all issues Xbox One have still games to appeal for gamers... Scearlett not.

I doubt it, even the X did like 800,000+ in its launch month and that was a 'refresh' console. What did the Xbox One do? 1.1 million or something?

 

[Freedom Gate Co.]

It will sell more than the 360.

People forget that the Xbox One was supposed to be a service console and was supposed to only sell 40 million units. But the backlash was so strong it wasn't possible to they reversed.

Xbox Scarlett will have the netflix style gaming but still have traditional gaming running along side with it with better infrastructure than their opponents. This time they are both an online only console and a traditional console. The mistakes the Xbox One made in 2013 are now impossible with this hybrid approach and the Kinect being dead.

This is why something like Stadia will fail because it only caters to one group while MS is catering to two on Xbox and two on PC.

 

[Freedom Gate Co.]

I doubt it, even the X did like 800,000+ in its launch month and that was a 'refresh' console. What did the Xbox One do? 1.1 million or something?

Both Xbox One and PS4 did 1 million in 24 hours. For the launch holiday window it was 3.9 and 4.2 respectively iirc.

 

[Gavon West]

This is a ridiculous poll. Not surprised how many actually responded.

And unless you've been living in another dimension (where waffles don't exist) clearly Microsoft isn't aiming for consoles sold next generation. Xcloud on nearly every device and GP will have a huge impact on hardware sales. The hardware is just for those who want an optimal experience. C'mon people!!!

 

[ethomaz]

I doubt it, even the X did like 800,000+ in its launch month and that was a 'refresh' console. What did the Xbox One do? 1.1 million or something?

Xbox One X sold 430k at November NPD when it launched on Nov 7 (basically the full month)... where you get these 800k? Just to make clear ~800k was the sales of Xbox One in the month X launched (~1.4m combined).

Said that XB1 sold over 1 million units in 24 hours across 13 countries.

 

[DanielsM]

Thing is look at how many consoles have sold this gen, a hell of a lot on both sides. Consoles always gonna sell and the X is the most powerful and helped microsoft gain a bit of traction back but it was late in the day.

Xbox as a Hardware has done worse (sales wise) once the Xbox One X was released though.

 

[ethomaz]

Xbox as a Hardware has done worse (sales wise) once the Xbox One X was released though.

In defense without X it could be way worst... it is just that Xbox One sales were in fall and X did hold a bit.
But X didn't changed that the main seller is Xbox One S... this is the console most will buy and it didn't do hot in the market.

The biggest beneficie X brought to MS is the marketing mindset giving the ideia MS is in a better position in console market now than before when it is the opposite.

 

[Iced Arcade]

If price in line with sony, same release date, similar specs... I'd say xbox to take north america by a good chunk but both balance out world wide.

x1 launch had fumbles but the biggest fumble was launching a console that was $100 more than the competition that played the same games (generally).

I think both xbox and sony will do lower numbers next gen because of the amount of alternatives and PC gaming becoming more common.

 

[DynamiteCop!]

Xbox One X sold 430k at November NPD when it launched on Nov 7 (basically the full month)... where you get these 800k? Just to make clear ~800k was the sales of Xbox One in the month X launched (~1.4m combined).

Said that XB1 sold over 1 million units in 24 hours across 13 countries.

The other 194 countries that exist on Earth that are not the United States.

 

[Insane Metal]

This thread, man.............

 

[ethomaz]

The other 194 countries that exist on Earth that are not the United States.

Xbox One sells in less than 100 countries... only PS4 sells in over 100 (if I'm not wrong 105 or 108).

Said US is the biggest Xbox market and covers more than 60% of the sales... that means over 800k is just flat out dreams.

Edit - Xbox One X was available at launch in only 35 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Turkey, the U.K., the U.S., and United Arab Emirates.

194

 

[DynamiteCop!]

Xbox One sells in less than 100 countries... only PS4 sells in over 100 (if I'm not wrong 105 or 108).

Said US is the biggest Xbox market and covers more than 60% of the sales... that means over 800k is just flat out dreams.

It's estimated to be 50-60%, not "it is 60%". Over 800k is a perfectly acceptable figure and wouldn't even be far off from your fixed 60% assertion.

At a 60:40 split it would still be 750,000.

 

[ethomaz]

It's estimated to be 50-60%, not "it is 60%". Over 800k is a perfectly acceptable figure and wouldn't even be far off from your fixed 60% assertion.

At a 60:40 split it would still be 750,000.

It is around 60% (at launch it 58% but it increased over time... and it was never anywhere close to 50%) counting the all countries Xbox One is available (something around 60-70).

X launched in 35 countries only.

You make baseless claims without any ideia what are you talking about.

BTW Xbox One sold way more in 24 hours than X in a month.

 

[juliotendo]

More than XBOX ONE but less than XBOX 360. The 360 era was I think peak XBOX.

Microsoft did themselves a lot of harm this generation. Their exclusive games output was horrific this generation and they fumbled at launch. Very tough to recover from.

 

[DynamiteCop!]

It is around 60% (at launch it 58% but it increased over time... and it was never anywhere close to 50%) counting the all countries Xbox One is available (something around 60-70).

X launched in 35 countries only.

You make baseless claims without any ideia what are you talking about.

Where are you getting that it launched in 35 countries?

 

[ethomaz]

Where are you getting that it launched in 35 countries?

MS when it launched...

The World’s Most Powerful Console, Xbox One X, Launches Worldwide - Xbox Wire

The official launch of the world’s most powerful console, Xbox One X, brings a new era of immersive 4K gaming and 4K entertainment to gamers across the globe. With 40 percent more power than any other console, Xbox One X is where console gamers can play the best versions of games. The new...

news.xbox.com

"The biggest global launch in Xbox history – now available in 35 markets "

I even listed the countries for you before: "Xbox One X is available now in 35 markets worldwide, including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Turkey, the U.K., the U.S., and United Arab Emirates."

 

[DanielsM]

In defense without X it could be way worst... it is just that Xbox One sales were in fall and X did hold a bit.
But X didn't changed that the main seller is Xbox One S... this is the console most will buy and it didn't do hot in the market.

The biggest beneficie X brought to MS is the marketing mindset giving the ideia MS is in a better position in console market now than before when it is the opposite.

The interesting part of this is... Xbox One sales were pretty stable around 8m units until 2017 when the Xbox One X and Game Pass were released - which is what makes half the threads in this forum quite comical, imo.

Xbox sales might struggle to hit half of 2015 sales numbers of 8.63m units for 2019, I'm guessing 4.5-5.5m units this year, next year is going to be an epic disaster.

 

[DynamiteCop!]

MS when it launched...

The World’s Most Powerful Console, Xbox One X, Launches Worldwide - Xbox Wire

The official launch of the world’s most powerful console, Xbox One X, brings a new era of immersive 4K gaming and 4K entertainment to gamers across the globe. With 40 percent more power than any other console, Xbox One X is where console gamers can play the best versions of games. The new...

news.xbox.com

"The biggest global launch in Xbox history – now available in 35 markets "

I even listed the countries for you before: "Xbox One X is available now in 35 markets worldwide, including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Turkey, the U.K., the U.S., and United Arab Emirates."

That's launch day rollout, that doesn't belay any information about other regional rollout throughout the month or beyond.

 

[Freedom Gate Co.]

It is around 60% (at launch it 58% but it increased over time... and it was never anywhere close to 50%) counting the all countries Xbox One is available (something around 60-70).

X launched in 35 countries only.

You make baseless claims without any ideia what are you talking about.

BTW Xbox One sold way more in 24 hours than X in a month.

200k isn't way more.

However, I will say that the Xbox One only launched in 13 countries and sold 200k more than the X's 800k, in 24 hours, with kinect and $500.

 

[TLZ]

For now I'm just going with the 2nd one. Just because they turned around and made their messaging about games again, and bought studios for next gen, so hopefully that means more worthy exclusives.

If they send them to all consoles though... Probably do Xbone numbers.

 

[DynamiteCop!]

200k isn't way more.

However, I will say that the Xbox One only launched in 13 countries and sold 200k more than the X's 800k, in 24 hours, with kinect and $500.

That's a new console though versus one mid-generation catering to a niche in the market. Context is important.

 

[Freedom Gate Co.]

That's a new console though versus one mid-generation catering to a niche in the market. Context is important.

One console that had backlash, that couldn't change its shipments because it was too late in the production process, with a controversal acessory $100 and weaker than its competitor sold more in 24 hours than a console that is the best in its class rising off increase yoy sales of the Xbox One, launched in more countries with deals that could get you the console for $50 less and trade-ins that could get it down to $100 less along with "console launch exclusives" and mass marketing.

That's not good no matter how you spin it, don't forget the X helped the Xbox One more than the S in some countries and it outsold the S launch by a good margin.

 

[Achillias]

That doesn't matter much. Games and price are both far more important factors.

That's bullshit, the console power is also a important factor on buying a new console. Their are a lot of people who make their choices based on the power of a device. And the games argument is something that is way out of proportion and doesn't mean much based on sales. The top played games are multi plats and not exclusives.

 

[Norse]

Since we all know it's specs, price,launch countries,etc I can predict without hesitation, sales numbers in excess of all previous Xbox generations minus the almighty 360. I would be very happy with that. I just hope MS requires all NeXtBox games support mouse and keyboard as well as the standard controller. Would be awesome.

 

[DynamiteCop!]

One console that had backlash, that couldn't change its shipments because it was too late in the production process, with a controversal acessory $100 and weaker than its competitor sold more in 24 hours than a console that is the best in its class rising off increase yoy sales of the Xbox One, launched in more countries with deals that could get you the console for $50 less and trade-ins that could get it down to $100 less along with "console launch exclusives" and mass marketing.

That's not good no matter how you spin it, don't forget the X helped the Xbox One more than the S in some countries and it outsold the S launch by a good margin.

When the X entered the market 4K TV saturation was only at about 30% vs. the 60% at 1080p and to an even lower extent 10% at 720p. That's existing market saturation, not even 1/3 of the TV market was adapted for this kind of technology. When the Xbox One launched 1080p saturation was around 80%, 720p 15%-18% and 4K was essentially 2-5%.

Right there you're operating with an adapted display market which is 166% larger than 4K relative to the X, and even in light of the ailing of the Xbox One, its policies, hardware, price and message it still has a new console advantage and it had a bigger market to captivate by leaps and bounds.

You can paint it whatever far reaching negative direction you choose but by the numbers the X's launch performance with all things considered far outpaces the base systems' launch.

 

[CyberPanda]

About hardware sales from Mat from NPD.

 

[Xenon]

Price will be huge! But something tells me its going to be sold at a loss.

Spoiler

red means you don't have enough revenue to meet operating expenses.