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[whyamihere]

http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/201...oral-integrity-states-gerrymandering-voter-id

Tapping experts for their opinions about local electoral integrity
The core concept of “electoral integrity” refers to international standards and global norms governing the appropriate conduct of elections during the pre-election period, the campaign, polling day and its aftermath. For the 2016 US election, the Perceptions of Electoral Integrity staff gathered evaluations from 726 political scientists based at universities in each state. We asked respondents, two weeks after polling day, to evaluate electoral integrity in their own state.

The survey included questions touching on 49 core indicators of electoral integrity, which were then grouped into 11 categories reflecting all stages of the electoral cycle: pre-election, campaign, polling day and its aftermath. For example, the experts were asked whether elections were well managed, whether votes were counted fairly, whether boundaries for candidates’ districts were set fairly, whether newspapers provided balanced election news, if ballot boxes were secure, and whether women had equal opportunities to run for office, among many other issues.

Each category rating is standardized to 100 points. The dataset also includes an overall 100-point index created by summing all 49 indicators. We also gathered information about each state, including the partisan composition of state legislatures and the share of the vote in the 2016 presidential race, which allowed us to determine, among other things, whether voting integrity was correlated with support for either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

The project also collected details about the individual experts, such as age, sex, and ideological positions, to test whether these characteristics were systematically associated with evaluations of electoral integrity.

Is the resulting data reliable? It can be argued that political scientists are not neutral judges, given the well-known academic bias towards supporting liberal values (and, often, liberal political parties). But the external validity of the Perceptions of Electoral Integrity Index has been widely tested in previous research and found to be strongly correlated with other standard sources of evidence, like Freedom House and Polity.

It is important to be cautious when interpreting absolute rankings, since the differences between states were often relatively modest. What’s more, the number of responses was limited in some states, such as Utah and North Dakota (although none of the states with limited responses are among the worst performing). Finally, as its name suggests, the survey measures expert perceptions of the integrity of the voting process. Experts’ opinions serve as proxies for the underlying phenomena. However, the opinions are experts are valuable in their own right; if many people think that there is fraud, this is a problem, even in the absence fraud. The PEI index has been widely cited by scholars and practitioners around the world, and has become the most comprehensive measure for comparing electoral performance from Australia to Zimbabwe.

We present here some initial results, but we are still sifting carefully through the evidence. Our results should eventually be compared with other data as it becomes available — including state performance indices (such as voting wait times and turnout rates), forensic analysis of precinct-level voting statistics, scrutiny of credible complaints and legal cases, surveys of poll-workers and local electoral officials, analysis of social media, and surveys of public opinion.

Figure 1 shows how experts evaluated the 2016 elections across all 50 US states and DC, on a 100-point scale. The patterns show that the south remains the region that local experts believe has the lowest levels of electoral integrity. The Supreme Court essentially ruled that voting restrictions in the South are a bygone problem when it blessed elimination of Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, which had required states with a history of racial discrimination to get Department of Justice approval before changing voting laws. But evidence from these expert evaluations suggests that that decision may have been unduly optimistic. By contrast the Pacific West and New England were the regions that experts view most positively with respect to the quality of their elections.

 

[guek]

So you're saying red states tend to be undemocratic?

Though to be fair, the midwest is much better than expected

 

[ItIsOkBro]

Republicans hate democracy

 

[hey_monkey]

Can you add the original link, OP?

 

[John Rabbit]

Arizona is never content with being middle of the pack at anything.

 

[Barrylocke]

Link to the actual article here.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Gerrymandering is a problem across the country.

 

[Wafflecakes]

So you're saying red states tend to be undemocratic?

Though to be fair, the midwest is much better than expected

Umm, did you even look at the chart?

There is very little correlation between political leanings and electoral integrity... There are some very high red states, and depressingly low blue states.

 

[Little Green Yoda]

Look at all those swing states in the bottom third.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Umm, did you even look at the chart?

There is very little correlation between political leanings and electoral integrity... There are some very high red states, and depressingly low blue states.

Looks like 15 of the bottom 16 are red states this cycle.

 

[Stinkles]

Umm, did you even look at the chart?

There is very little correlation between political leanings and electoral integrity... There are some very high red states, and depressingly low blue states.

That's an optimistic phrasing of the chart....

 

[ItIsOkBro]

Umm, did you even look at the chart?

There is very little correlation between political leanings and electoral integrity... There are some very high red states, and depressingly low blue states.

I see more than a very little correlation.

 

[Scalemail Ted]

Wow, Louisiana is ranked number 9. That's pretty good.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Looks like 15 of the bottom 16 are red states this cycle.

This cycle being the key word.


The SOUTH is incredibly bad yes, and is primarily GOP.

However, the Midwest, which has traditionally been blue is very bad as well.... and mid Atlantic states like NY, NJ, and Virginia are depressingly low.

Meanwhile, most of the western GOP states have fantastic scores, as well as a smattering of other locals around the country like Louisiana, West Virginia, etc.



Don't let me rain on the "blame GOP for everything bad in life" parade though.

 

[ahoyhoy]

Wow, Louisiana is ranked number 9. That's pretty good.

I do like their open primary/runoff system.

 

[Retromelon]

Somehow I predicted vermont before clicking through, and lo and behold

 

[Toxi]

Iowa is the biggest surprise for me.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Iowa is the biggest surprise for me.

Any states that uses a Caucus should be knocked down 20 points automatically.

 

[Quixzlizx]

This cycle being the key word.


The SOUTH is incredibly bad yes, and is primarily GOP.

However, the Midwest, which has traditionally been blue is very bad as well.... and mid Atlantic states like NY, NJ, and Virginia and depressingly low.

Meanwhile, most of the western GOP states have fantastic scores, as well as a smattering of other locals around the country like Louisiana, West Virginia, etc.



Don't let me rain on the "blame GOP for everything bad in life" parade though.

The state legislatures of PA/OH/MI/WI (definitely the last three) are all Republican, I believe, and have been for years.

 

[adj_noun]

What a surprise, Washington way up there. Our voting is the absolute best. Lines are for suckers.

Darn you Idaho though.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

We're number two baby

Good to know we're not rigged into being absurdly Republican, we just vote those 80% supermajorities in because we're morons, nice!

What a surprise, Washington way up there. Our voting is the absolute best. Lines are for suckers.

Darn you Idaho though.

I'll trade that point of integrity for not having a state full of morons

 

[Wafflecakes]

The state legislatures of PA/OH/MI/WI (definitely the last three) are all Republican, I believe, and have been for years.

If those were the only low dem states I would buy this argument, but since there are a ton more I really don't.

 

[Stinkles]

This cycle being the key word.


The SOUTH is incredibly bad yes, and is primarily GOP.

However, the Midwest, which has traditionally been blue is very bad as well.... and mid Atlantic states like NY, NJ, and Virginia are depressingly low.

Meanwhile, most of the western GOP states have fantastic scores, as well as a smattering of other locals around the country like Louisiana, West Virginia, etc.



Don't let me rain on the "blame GOP for everything bad in life" parade though.

You said "very little correlation between voting irregularity and republican states"


There is a high correlation between voting irregularity and red states no matter how you slice it - preseidential, gubernatorial, state, local.


So you're completely wrong about your assertion. Nobody said it wa s 1:1 or universal. There is a HIGH correlation.


There is also a high correlation between high integrity and mail in voting. Everyone should have mail in. And that should become online (with receipt generated for paper trail)

 

[GhaleonEB]

This cycle being the key word.


The SOUTH is incredibly bad yes, and is primarily GOP.

However, the Midwest, which has traditionally been blue is very bad as well.... and mid Atlantic states like NY, NJ, and Virginia are depressingly low.

Meanwhile, most of the western GOP states have fantastic scores, as well as a smattering of other locals around the country like Louisiana, West Virginia, etc.



Don't let me rain on the "blame GOP for everything bad in life" parade though.

They've been nearly all red at state level for a while, which is what matters for elections. I used 'this cycle' as a reference point.

 

[whyamihere]

Link to the actual article here.

Oops. sorry. Added to the OP.

 

[ahoyhoy]

Happy to see Maryland ranked so high.

Also unsurised that we get docked for gerrymandering. Democrats carved this state up so hard.

 

[Quixzlizx]

If those were the only low dem states I would buy this argument, but since there are a ton more I really don't.

The only states controlled by Democrats that are low are NY, NJ, and RI.

 

[WeAreStarStuff]

Map looks exactly as I expected it would.

 

[Chris R]

That data set with a r^2 value of .1 is pretty laughable

 

[whyamihere]

Happy to see Maryland ranked so high.

Also unsurised that we get docked for gerrymandering. Democrats carved this state up so hard.

The map is actually carved more for incumbency that actual gerrymandering. You'd probably only get one more GOP district in the 6th.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Idaho at number two is surprising to see.

 

[SDBurton]

Arizona at the bottom of the barrel, ffs.

 

[Chumly]

This cycle being the key word.


The SOUTH is incredibly bad yes, and is primarily GOP.

However, the Midwest, which has traditionally been blue is very bad as well.... and mid Atlantic states like NY, NJ, and Virginia are depressingly low.

Meanwhile, most of the western GOP states have fantastic scores, as well as a smattering of other locals around the country like Louisiana, West Virginia, etc.



Don't let me rain on the "blame GOP for everything bad in life" parade though.

Do you even understand the concept of high correlation? It doesn't mean that it's 100%. Some states will be outliers but its obviously that if it's a red state you are signicantly more likely to have a bad score.

I'm sorry that this doesn't fit with your narrative

 

[ahoyhoy]

The map is actually carved more for incumbency that actual gerrymandering. You'd probably only get one more GOP district in the 6th.

In a state with a Republican governor it's odd there's only one of eight Congressional Republicans.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Think that the northwestern GOP states being ranked so high is interesting.

Then again due to low minority population they don't need to dismantle their voting systems in order to maintain their status.

Also Louisiana being so high is a shocker.

 

[whyamihere]

In a state with a Republican governor it's odd there's only one of eight Congressional Republicans.

Not really. Louisiana has a Democratic governor and you probably could only draw one more district that would be D-favored. It'd be next to impossible to draw a Republican-favored district in Massachusetts without doing some huge gymnastics, and Charlie Baker is the governor there. You could get 1 more Republican district in Maryland. That's it.

Statewide offices can be weird.

 

[Team Alucard]

Iowa is the biggest surprise for me.

The Dems have had control of the State Senate for the past 15 years, which has prevented any major fuckery from going down.

However, the GOP finally won full control this past election, and they're already talking about voter ID laws, as well as dismantling the current non-partisan method the state uses for dating congressional districts.

Also on the docket:

-Defunding planned parenthood

-Removing collective bargaining rights from state employees in regards to Healthcare benefits

-Eliminating the pension plan for state employees

-Banning local counties and municipalities from raising the minimum wage

-Stripping LGBT protections from the Iowa Civil Rights Act

 

[ahoyhoy]

Not really. Louisiana has a Democratic governor and you probably could only draw one more district that would be D-favored. It'd be next to impossible to draw a Republican-favored district in Massachusetts without doing some huge gymnastics, and Charlie Baker is the governor there. You could get 1 more Republican district in Maryland. That's it.

Statewide offices can be weird.

Hmm... with twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans, you're right.