Why have taxis gotten slower since 2009?
The biggest slowdowns in taxi travel times happened in 2014 and 2015. The data and regression model have nothing to say about why taxis slowed down so much over that period, though it might be interesting to dig deeper into the data to see if there are specific regions where taxis have fared better or worse since 2009.
Uber usage took off in New York starting in 2014, reaching over 10,000 vehicles dispatched per week by the beginning of 2015. There are certainly people who blame Uberand other ride-hailing apps like Lyft and Junofor increasing traffic, but the citys own 2016 traffic report did not blame Uber for increased congestion.
Its undoubtedly very hard to do an accurate study measuring ride-hailings impact on traffic, and Im especially wary of people on both sides who have strong interests in blaming or exonerating the ride-hailing companies. Nevertheless, if I had to guess the biggest reasons taxis got particularly slower in 2014 and 2015, I would start with the explosive growth of ride-hailing apps, since the timing looks to align, and the publicly available data shows that they account for tens of thousands of vehicles on the roads.
On the other hand, if ride-hailing were the biggest cause of increased congestion in 2014 and 2015, it doesnt exactly make sense that taxi travel times have stabilized a bit in 2016 and 2017, because ride-hailing has continued to grow, and while taxi usage continues to shrink, the respective rates of growth and shrinkage are not very different in 201617 than they were in 201415. One explanation could be that starting in 2016 there was a reduction in other types of vehiclestraditional black cars, private vehicles, etc.to offset ride-hailing growth, but I have not seen any data to support (or refute) that idea.
There are also those who blame bike lanes for worsening vehicle traffic. Again, different people have strong interests arguing both sides, but it seems like there are more data points arguing that bike lanes do not cause traffic (e.g. here, here, and here) than vice versa. I wasnt able to find anything about the timing of NYC bike lane construction to see how closely it aligns with the 201415 taxi slowdown.
Lots of other factors could have contributed to worsening traffic: commuter-adjusted population growth, subway usage, decaying infrastructure, construction, and presidential residences are just a few that feel like they could be relevant. I dont know the best way to account for all of them, but it does seem like if you want to get somewhere in New York quickly, its increasingly less likely that a car is your best option.
