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[akachan ningen]

Starting the next gen early is too expensive. It's easier and cheaper just to pay for parity.

 

[Tidus_Great]

because pulling the plug after a year or two doesn't inspire consumer confidence. also it's a marathon not a sprint,. People said ps3 was a failure at first too, then it ended up with the best games of last gen and turned around to post up damn near 100 million sales.

 

[Biker19]

how many months has Xbox one won in NPDs since Nov 2013?....

Face it man MS doesnt want that, nobody in a business wants to be selling less and seeing a gap growing. If MS wins a month people shouldn't go wild, the sales gap in the US is what matters.

Investors couldn't care less if they're number one or not in console hardware sales. They care about profitability.

 

[2thepoint]

Investors couldn't care less if they're number one or not in console hardware sales. They care about profitability.

Well, with the amount of deals going on with Xbox One lately ie free games, Xbox Live, pack-ins etc I don't think they are turning a profit.

They don't come cheap and the Xbox division is probably bleeding cash.

Such a massive turnaround from the PS3/Xbox 360 era - like, literally polar opposites.

 

[FyreWulff]

Nintendo tried it with Wii U.

Wii and Wii U are six years apart.. longer than GC-> Wii, longer than N64-> GC, longer than SNES -> N64

 

[theprodigy]

Not second place bud

Edit: my bad if that site is banned, I'll find a different source.

smooth chartz source....but even though Xbox One is still behind Wii U for now it's catching up quickly

 

[Pathfinder]

Didn't another company do something like this recently?

 

[ProfessorMoran]

because pulling the plug after a year or two doesn't inspire consumer confidence. also it's a marathon not a sprint,. People said ps3 was a failure at first too, then it ended up with the best games of last gen and turned around to post up damn near 100 million sales.

It's not a marathon or a sprint, more like building a snowball and keeping it going, the faster your build it, the bigger it gets and the more momentum it gets, that said, you would still need to keep pushing the snowball down the hill but the further we get the harder it is for the losing side to turn the tide, the word of mouth effect as well as the "I'll get the one everybody else is buying" effect is going to win out.

 

[Pathfinder]

Well, with the amount of deals going on with Xbox One lately ie free games, Xbox Live, pack-ins etc I don't think they are turning a profit.

They don't come cheap and the Xbox division is probably bleeding cash.

Such a massive turnaround from the PS3/Xbox 360 era - like, literally polar opposites.

Profits in the short term may be taking a hit, but the long term effects are more important. Microsoft will make back the money with accessory sales and Xbox Live subscriptions.

 

[Skux]

The same happened to Sony at the start of last gen. They were getting hammered by Xbox 360 which was cheaper and had some amazing early games (Crackdown, Gears) and had the whole "PS3 has no games" meme.

They stuck with it and it turned out pretty well. Microsoft just need some big exclusives. Halo is a start, but they can't pull that Tomb Raider shit again.

 

[ShirAhava]

Yes your right OP they should put out an Xbox CD, Xbox 32x, Xbox Neptune and then top it off with an Xbox Saturn surprise launch all within the next two years that will work out well for them.

 

[Ayato Kanzaki]

last gen ,at this point,ps3 was doomed and had "no games",in this end 360 and ps3 ended up on par worldwide and ps3 probably had the best line-up of games.

so I wouldn't be so hasty to call the game over.there's plenty of time to change things..of course they are not gonna change by themselves,it all depends on how good microsoft management really is.

The PS3 managed to overtake the Xbox360 because of a few things:

- It was Sony, who largely dominated the previous gen. That had an enourmous amount of good will among the players.
- They had more first-party studios (the "ps3 has no games" was only due to the 360 being released a year earlier).
- Japan. It was a signifiant market for the PS3.
- The PS3 was, for a signifiant period, the cheapest blu-ray player you could buy.
- Negligible difference in horsepower between PS3 and 360.
- It's main drawback, the price, was something that Sony could change without dirsupting everything else.
- Xbox360 had multiplayer with a subscription. PS3's multiplayer was free.

And I'm certainly forgetting some... but those are the things that allowed Sony to eventually climb back to the top.


Compare the situation back then to the situation now. Speaking about marathons is well and good, but game-changing conditions don't come out of thin air.

 

[Pathfinder]

And I'm certainly forgetting some... but those are the things that allowed Sony to eventually climb back to the top.

Don't forget monthly "free" games via PSN+.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

It's a marathon, not a sprint. And this seems pretty fucking early to be asking MS to just throw in the towel wtf.

And this generation won't last as long as the last one, I guarantee it. Probably looking at 6 or 7 years at most. Entirely speculation mind you.

This really cracked me up

 

[fred]

You're not going to see another Xbox or PlayStation console for another 4 years, and we'll see the Wii 3 being released in 3 years time. Back to a traditional 5-6 year generation lifespan.

Wii 3 - 2017
PS5 - 2018
Xbox 4 - 2018

And hopefully we're going to see a return of backwards compatibility next generation too.

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

Pepsi will never outsell Coca-Cola. Pepsi should stop making money and call it quits, because if you aren't winning, your company is a failure. No matter how many millions/billions you net in profits.

 

[xxracerxx]

Man, that would just be a slap in the face to their fanbase if they released Xbox Two or Zero or whatever naming convention they choose (it will be dumb, mark my words) in a few years.

 

[Pathfinder]

Pepsi will never outsell Coca-Cola. Pepsi should stop making money and call it quits, because if you aren't winning, your company is a failure. No matter how many millions/billions you net in profits.

Coca-Cola has more TPOP's than Pepsi. Pepsi can't compete.

 

[KingGreasy]

Games take a long time to make. Resetting the hardware early is suicide. It can be stronger than the PS4 but it will be behind in sales and an early console would have to compete with the Xbox One as well as well as early adopters that felt burned. How many games would it have. It could continue on x86 and maintain backwards compatability but it would be dependent on Xbox One games. Halo Collection is coming out soon. Halo 5 is supposed to be next year. Forza 5 and Horizon 2 have come out. Fable Legends is on the horizon. I suppose they can just abandon further 1st party development on the Xbox One and focus on software for some paper target hardware but that's an easy way to burn early adopters that provide the early user base that incenticizes developers to develop for the console.

Consoles apparently take a long time to design. Release something in three years and a couple years later Sony releases something better. My guess would be that console makers would prefer not to have a staggered hardware power arms race. Developers would probably hate it since now target consoles are vastly different in capablities.

edit: It hasn't even been a whole year. They should just make it work for at least the five years until rumblings of new consoles on the horizon start. Should at least wait this next holiday season to see how strong demand is for the consoles. I'm curious to see how they do this holiday season. Last year is difficult to compare to previous launches because of how much stock there was so if you really wanted to be an early adopter, it wasn't hard at all to get a console in the first few months. Let's see how they do in a non-launch holiday season where they aren't the hot new technology.

 

[Parmenides]

Microsoft shouldn't race to be first again, just get your offer right.

This.

Philosophy behind Sony’s home consoles

1) “First to market has never been an advantage" – Kaz Hirai

2) release the most powerful console in the world, leapfrog the previous generation of games consoles (PS1/PS2 were powerful consoles in 1994/2000)

3) strike a good balance between cost and performance (PS3 is the one exception to the rule)

4) leverage your powerful hardware / brand to attract top developers and hardcore gamers.

5) PS1+PS2+PS3+PS4 = 350 M sold and counting

A lot of people were -and still are- completely oblivious to the idea that the PS3 was outselling the 360 globally, on a yearly basis, from the get go.

This.

Hardware Unit Sales (Sell-in) 

       Ja-Mr'07    Ap-Jn'07    Jl-Sp'07    Oc-Dc'07    2007        

PS3      1.8         0.7         1.3         4.9        8.7   

360      0.5         0.7         1.8         4.3        7.3

They also fil to understand that the PS3 never recovered from the atrocious launch in the US

Well, Xbox 360 is the best selling console of its generation in the US (Xbox 360 will overtake the Wii in Nov 2014)

However, this is probably the best-kept secret.

US Market

PS1 LTD - 30 m

PS3 LTD - 26 m

They are in the same ballpark.

and was only catapulted into the second place thank to its popularity in Europe, Japan and the rest of the world. Expecting the Xbox One to do the same is a feverish dream...Not gonna happen.

Excluding NA, the PS3 is already the best selling console of its generation, and we know that the PS4 is more dominant than the PS3 in those regions. If MS loses a large share of NA to Sony ...

Actually the XBO is currently doing far, far better than the PS3 was at a comparable point in it's life, worldwide or otherwise.

US + JP - (Jan - Sep)

2007 Wii -> 6.03 m

2001 PS2 -> 5.07 m

2014 PS4 -> 3.20 m

2006 360 -> 2.13 m

2007 PS3 -> 1.92 m

2002 GC -> 1.74 m

2002 Xbox -> 1.71 m

2014 Xbox One -> 1.70 m

 

[Stereogatari]

Man, that would just be a slap in the face to their fanbase if they released Xbox Two or Zero or whatever naming convention they choose (it will be dumb, mark my words) in a few years.

The reason they named the 2nd one 360 was because they couldn't be XB2 VS PS3.

Calling it XBone is an attempt to reverse the numbering (1 = best).

They should just call the next one XB5 for the lulz.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Aren't they still tracking for more sales than 360 in first 2 years, due to better supply?

 

[Elwood Blues]

Xbox Two announced at next e3. Minecraft 2 exclusive at launch.

 

[Lord Malachite]

agree, but you attack your main competitor where they are weakest, and that is their debt, you force their hand...

but the longer you wait the more PS4's are in peoples home the harder it would be to do I feel..

Sony is not Microsoft's main competitor. Microsoft really only competes with Sony in the console games space. It would be a foolish use of Microsoft's resources to "crush" Sony when they are fighting expensive wars on many other, non-gaming fronts that are far more integral to the company's bottom line than the Xbox ever will be.

 

[Pain]

Investors couldn't care less if they're number one or not in console hardware sales. They care about profitability.

Of course they care. Lower console sales = More free game promotions/bundnles, more price cuts....etc. This all ends up with lower profits in the end.

I doubt investors are investing in Microsoft because of Xbox though so I don't really think it matters in the end.

 

[Strike]

Because they've already lost enough money.

 

[captainraincoat]

The average consumer does not give a shit about how much better the ram is in a console or how fast the cpu. ....they look at price and games.....If they have both of these right its a success

The wii is the perfect example....right price. ..right games..Once the games went to shovel ware so did their sales


Ps3 ...wrong price....no games....Once it fixed these it was fine

 

[HocusPocus]

Would be cheaper to just drop them price 100.

 

[Game4life]

Of course MS should not end this generation earlier. They need to continue to invest in great games. If they do that they can end up profitable even if they are in second place. Now would be a good time to start building some high quality first party studios. Their online and OS is excellent. They cant do anything about power differences. All they should do now is build a great portfolio of games. Stop doing temporary shit like buying TR which will prob relase 3-4 months later on the competing platform. Instead invest in first party IP's that are owned you. Only then will people flock to your console.

 

[Hindle]

They don't need to thats why. The X1 is being outsold by the PS4, but it's still selling well all things considered. Sales for multiplat games are strong on the system as well.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

In the past that was probably true. However I don't believe that anymore.

PC gaming is much more widespread and mainstream, especially with games like League of Legends, World of Warcraft, and the accessibility that Steam offers. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone pick up a laptop that can play low end games, or spend $400-$500 building a somewhat decent computer instead of buying a PS4 or Xbox One.

You don't need to be rich or have a good paying career to PC game. You just need some disposable income, the same amount it would cost to buy a console and maybe a few games.

PC gaming is on the rise, I would ignore him with in regards to anything related to PC gaming. He made a bunch of questionable comments in another topic about traditional console games going to the PC. It did not end well for him.

Investors couldn't care less if they're number one or not in console hardware sales. They care about profitability.

That hasn't stopped Sony from existing for the past 10 years.

 

[C4Lukins]

This is a silly idea.

The XOne is outselling 360 through its first 11 months, and it is doing it without a year head start as a next Gen machine with no competition. Yes I guess next year they could release a superior machine to PS4, but who is going to make that transition? It is a ridiculous idea. It would essentially piss off all current XOne owners, and I do not see the advantage that more power would bring. It would again be a more expensive machine, and it would not suddenly get super exclusives because it was more powerful.

 

[Biker19]

The PS3 managed to overtake the Xbox 360 because of a few things:

- It was Sony, who largely dominated the previous gen. That had an enormous amount of good will among the players.
- They had more first-party studios (the "ps3 has no games" was only due to the 360 being released a year earlier).
- Japan. It was a significant market for the PS3.
- The PS3 was, for a significant period, the cheapest blu-ray player you could buy.
- Negligible difference in horsepower between PS3 and 360.
- It's main drawback, the price, was something that Sony could change without disrupting everything else.
- Xbox360 had multiplayer with a subscription. PS3's multiplayer was free.

And I'm certainly forgetting some...but those are the things that allowed Sony to eventually climb back to the top.

Compare the situation back then to the situation now. Speaking about marathons is well and good, but game-changing conditions don't come out of thin air.

Right, & the only advantages that Xbox 360 had were the $200 price advantage, & the year head-start (A 18 month head start in Europe). Without either of those advantages, & without Kinect helping Microsoft bringing in more Xbox 360 console sales from non-gamers, the PS3 would've been in 2nd place way before early 2013, let alone before E3 2010. Heck, 360 was about only 3 million console sales above PS3 worldwide before both PS Move & Kinect came out in November 2010.

Sony had dominated gaming for two generations with PS1 & PS2, & the brand is much bigger worldwide. Microsoft doesn't have that, nor did they ever won a generation.

 

[LouisaFerre]

They wouldn't cut it loose unless they were in a situation where they thought holding onto it any longer would just cause them to lose money. As long as it's making a profit or has the potential to, they'll keep going, because what's the alternative if they drop support? If they (or Nintendo) tried to push a new console out the door as soon as possible, they'd likely end up being in a worse situation than the one they're in now.

 

[Respawn]

Where would I play online games on consoles, if they did?

Uhmm PS4?

 

[bigboss370]

Well, with the amount of deals going on with Xbox One lately ie free games, Xbox Live, pack-ins etc I don't think they are turning a profit.

They don't come cheap and the Xbox division is probably bleeding cash.

Such a massive turnaround from the PS3/Xbox 360 era - like, literally polar opposites.

ps3 caught up. not really polar opposites in terms of sales, but maybe in amount of money its costing the company.

 

[Nealand Liquor]

 

[statham]

I don't know the OP background, but this sounds like Sony is in the lead, lets end the war now so Sony wins, I'm thinking Microsoft still has some pricecuts, third party deals, reviving Rare, building up first party that this 'war' is far from over. of course if we go by power and ease of development, the OG xbox should have killed but it didn't, it didn't have the games, lets just wait and see if MS can get the games.

 

[Stuggernaut]

Maybe I am looking at it wrong, but just because Sony is leading overall does not mean MS is pointless.

Seems to me MS is selling a lot of consoles, and a lot of games. With more on the way.

You can be second and be filthy rich and successful.

Again... just my view.

 

[NolbertoS]

Well if MS ended this generation in a uears time, they be labelled desperate and the next Sega Saturn. You remember what happened to Sega releasing console modification after another each year. People will get burnt out and tune out. As long as Xbox turns a profit, the shareholders might greenlight anothet console, but hard to justify that given MS, not really making alot of dough in the multi/platform gaming sales and not selling the hardware in large quantities like Sony. As I can't envision what the net revenue is, must be small, aince we don't hear a peep from MS PR chest pounding or shareholders not going ape ahit every 4-5 months asking to spin off the Xbox Division.

 

[SparkTR]

ps3 caught up. not really polar opposites in terms of sales, but maybe in amount of money its costing the company.

PS3 never caught up in the US/UK markets, and worldwide the Playstation brand was and is much stronger than the Xbox brand, which is where it made up much of the difference.

 

[regenhuber88]

Well, with the amount of deals going on with Xbox One lately ie free games, Xbox Live, pack-ins etc I don't think they are turning a profit.

They don't come cheap and the Xbox division is probably bleeding cash.

Such a massive turnaround from the PS3/Xbox 360 era - like, literally polar opposites.

You are assuming that MS pays retail prices for the stuff they put in deals.
The pack in games are actually download codes, so MS only pays license fees and gets users accustomed to digital games.
A free second gamepad probably cost MS like 3$ when they get em from china.
3 month free LIVE is just 2 month more than every new Xbox buyer gets anyway.
Don't forget that any X1 sold means continued revenue potential, consoles are like printers in that way.

 

[Dremark]

In all honesty, as much as I like the PS4,the numbers the Xbone are pulling down only look be because the PS4 is doing so well. We'll overall at least, some of the individual markets look pretty bleak, but regardless.

Anyway positioning-wise it's in a good spot. I don't feel the need to own one, but when the games come out I probably won't hesitate to pick one up.

Overall it's a situation they can turn around if they play their cards right, and besides that, they don't need to be top dog to do well.

 

[Fredrik]

XB1 launched about a month ago over here (Sweden), I'm not ready for another one or an updated one yet, I actually use it more than my PS4 so from my perspective the fight is far from over. Nintendo on the other hand, I would not be surprised if they jump started next gen way sooner than MS/Sony want them to.

 

[ChosenPredator]

XB1 launched about a month ago over here (Sweden), I'm not ready for another one or an updated one yet, I actually use it more than my PS4 so from my perspective the fight is far from over. Nintendo on the other hand, I would not be surprised if they jump started next gen way sooner than MS/Sony want them to.

yeah, it's still so fresh when you think about it both have barely been out, i can't wait to see how it looks 5 years from now.

 

[MrGerbils]

The PS3 managed to overtake the Xbox360 because of a few things:

- It was Sony, who largely dominated the previous gen. That had an enourmous amount of good will among the players.
- They had more first-party studios (the "ps3 has no games" was only due to the 360 being released a year earlier).
- Japan. It was a signifiant market for the PS3.
- The PS3 was, for a signifiant period, the cheapest blu-ray player you could buy.
- Negligible difference in horsepower between PS3 and 360.
- It's main drawback, the price, was something that Sony could change without dirsupting everything else.
- Xbox360 had multiplayer with a subscription. PS3's multiplayer was free.

And I'm certainly forgetting some... but those are the things that allowed Sony to eventually climb back to the top.


Compare the situation back then to the situation now. Speaking about marathons is well and good, but game-changing conditions don't come out of thin air.

- It was Sony, who largely dominated the previous gen. That had an enourmous amount of good will among the players.

And Xbox largely dominated last gen everywhere but Japan. Console sales started to level out but software stayed selling stronger on 360.


- They had more first-party studios (the "ps3 has no games" was only due to the 360 being released a year earlier).

This is a variable that MS can really start fighting on. See Tomb Raider and Minecraft.


- Japan. It was a signifiant market for the PS3.

PS4 isn't really doing great in Japan yet either.


- The PS3 was, for a signifiant period, the cheapest blu-ray player you could buy.

So it should have been doing better than 360 right off the bat, right? The Xbone has more media capabilities than the ps4, with mkv support, dlna, and the cable tv stuff.


- Negligible difference in horsepower between PS3 and 360.

Id argue the gap was bigger last gen. There's nothing close to TLoU on 360. This gen all the console war fanboys have make 300 page threads on fucking 180 lines of pixels because they have nothing else to go on. It's desperation at its finest. These consoles are very closely matched.


- It's main drawback, the price, was something that Sony could change without dirsupting everything else.

MS has already fixed their initial pricing/bundling error. They could still go further.


- Xbox360 had multiplayer with a subscription. PS3's multiplayer was free.

So they're equal here this gen, that leaves MS room to improve their service rather than just playing catch up.

 

[UrbanRats]

Sega tried this...

it didn't work out too well for them.

Though I wouldn't be surprised if MS decides to launch the Xbone successor in 2017 (so 4 years after the Xbone launched), kind of like they did with Xbox -> 360.



Oh please don't start this.

I'm not trying to "start" anything, so i'm not sure what you mean.

I'm saying with enough goodwill, you can still turn things around, which doesn't mean winning the console war, but it means selling a good amount of consoles, and get the good will of gamers back.
I think Sony did it last gen, with the rebranding of the PS3 and the launch of the slim model, and the increased support with good first party games (though most of all, by dropping the arrogant attitude).

I think Microsoft can achieve a similar goal, with the Xbone, whether they end up the generation actually on top or not (for that it may already be too late).
They already sort of dropped the asshole-ish nature they started with, putting Phil Spencer at the helm, we'll see about the rest.

 

[Yoda]

Microsoft's main issue is that they alienated a large swath of their core fan-base. Releasing another console this soon would only further show that all they are blinded by greed. This isn't to say they shouldn't do what makes the most financial sense, but it'd be a very hard argument to make that they should pull another move which certainly would be precieved that way.

 

[zychi]

A next gen only cod hasnt come out yet, a defining exclusive for either console hasnt come out yet either.

Why even release a console? MS makes windows and windows plays pc games. /s

 

[GHG]

No the kinnectless console has been great as far as I'm concerned.

Forza horizon 2 and DLNA support are all I need right now. Keep the improvements coming I say.

Their biggest missteps were all in their original announcement and they've now gone some way to remedying those so why stop now just as thing are getting better?